
MLB Power Rankings: A pair of NL teams lead shake-up in top 5
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1 year agoon
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adminComing off a few big intraleague matchups, the top five of this week’s Power Rankings look a little different.
Following the Dodgers’ sweep of the Braves in the first matchup between the two powerhouses this season, Atlanta has not only dropped to No. 4 in our rankings but also to second place in the National League East, sitting three games* behind the division rival Phillies.
Los Angeles has retaken the No. 1 spot on our list, while Philadelphia is now second overall. Meanwhile, the Orioles and Yankees continue to duke it out atop their division, with Cleveland not far behind the two in the overall American League race.
Our expert panel has combined to rank every team in baseball based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers, Alden Gonzalez and Jorge Castillo to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Record: 26-13
Previous ranking: 3
Walker Buehler pitched in a major league game for the first time in nearly 23 months on Monday. And though the results were shaky — he allowed three runs on six hits in four innings to the lowly Marlins — the peripherals were promising, specifically the velocity on his fastball and the break on his off-speed pitches. Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto have established themselves as legitimate front-of-the-rotation starters. The offense — powered by Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman at the top of the lineup — seemingly looks more menacing by the day. And the Dodgers as a whole have reached another gear, sweeping the Braves over the weekend and winning 14 of their last 16 games overall. Adding a healthy Buehler to that mix almost seems unfair. — Gonzalez
Record: 26-12
Previous ranking: 5
The Phillies swept the Giants in a four-game series over the weekend at the same time the Braves were swept at Dodger Stadium, moving Philadelphia into first place in the NL East. Over the past two seasons, the Phillies were in first place just one day, after the fourth game of the season in 2022. They can thank Bryce Harper for their recent success. He went 3-for-3 with a grand slam on Tuesday, a towering shot into the first row in right-center field, his third straight game with a home run. The Phillies are 17-1 in the past 18 games Harper has played, a span in which he has hit .333/.481/.667 with six home runs and 21 RBIs. He continues to improve at first base, and his Statcast metrics there are excellent, ranking in the 93rd percentile in range.
Meanwhile, the starting pitching has been so good that with Taijuan Walker now back, Spencer Turnbull has moved to the bullpen despite a 1.67 ERA as a starter. Turnbull responded with two scoreless relief innings on Tuesday. — Schoenfield
Record: 24-12
Previous ranking: 2
The Orioles’ lineup is the deepest in the AL, which makes their recent stretch scary for the competition. Baltimore has limited opponents to three or fewer runs in eight of their past nine games, winning seven of them. Corbin Burnes has performed as advertised, posting a 2.83 ERA through seven starts. Grayson Rodriguez recently landed on the injured list, but John Means and Kyle Bradish were activated to replenish the rotation. Means logged seven scoreless innings in his season debut. Bradish gave up one run to the Yankees over 4⅔ innings in his first start. Baltimore’s 3.30 staff ERA is seventh in the majors. Veteran closer Craig Kimbrel, however, has stumbled recently, giving up six runs in 2⅓ innings over his past five appearances. — Castillo
Record: 22-12
Previous ranking: 1
The much-anticipated showdown with the Dodgers was a complete bust: L.A. swept the three-game series, outscoring the Braves 20-6 and outhomering them 9 to 3. The Braves left the series averaging just 1.0 home runs per game as compared to last year’s epic 1.89 per game. Matt Olson‘s homerless drought reached 24 games after Sunday’s loss. Ronald Acuna Jr. did homer on Friday, but that was just his second of the season. Jarred Kelenic remains without a home run. Braves fans can take a little solace in that April and May were the team’s worst offensive months in 2023 before the lineup exploded over the final four. Still, the Braves left the series in second place in the division behind Philadelphia, the first time they were out of first since the third game of 2023 (the only day they weren’t in first place last season). — Schoenfield
Record: 25-13
Previous ranking: 4
Losing Gerrit Cole, arguably the best pitcher in the world, for at least two months before the season started could’ve doomed the Yankees. But New York’s rotation has remained stout, with Luis Gil capitalizing on his opportunity as Cole’s replacement. The 25-year-old right-hander held the Orioles scoreless over 6⅓ innings last week. Gil limited the Astros to one run in six innings on Tuesday. In seven starts, he has a 2.92 ERA despite leading the majors with 24 walks. Meanwhile, Cole, who is eligible to come off the IL at the end of the month, recently took the next step in his rehab, throwing off a mound for the first time since being shut down in mid-March. — Castillo
Record: 24-13
Previous ranking: 6
Jose Ramirez is off to an interesting start. On one hand, his power (seven HRs) and RBI numbers (28 in his first 34 games) are fine, and his strikeout rate is right in line with his career norms. On the other hand, he is hitting .245 with a .290 OBP as his walk rate is way down and his chase rate is up about six percentage points from last season. Back in 2018, Ramirez’s chase rate was super elite, in the 90th percentile, but it actually has decreased each season since, landing in the 49th percentile last season. In 2024, he is down in the 15th percentile. While the Guardians are scoring runs right now thanks to a .293 average and .463 slugging with runners in scoring position (RISP), that’s likely to regress, so a better Ramirez will become a necessity. — Schoenfield
Record: 22-17
Previous ranking: 9
One thing about Rangers standout Marcus Semien: You know he’ll be there. As a leadoff hitter who never misses a game, Semien topped the AL in plate appearances in four of five seasons from 2019 to 2023, and he heads that leaderboard once again. So far at the plate this season, his numbers have been right at his career averages, with a bit of a shortfall in walks the only thing that stands out. In the field, however, Semien is building a strong case for what would be his second career Gold Glove, after earning his first when he played second base for Toronto in 2021. According to Fangraphs’ DEF metric, which combines the results of the leading defensive evaluation systems, Semien easily leads the majors — among all positions — with 7.6 runs above average. — Doolittle
Record: 22-16
Previous ranking: 8
A historic run by the Cubs’ starting staff probably should have produced more wins over the past week, but that doesn’t take away from the accomplishments. In the first seven games to start May, the rotation compiled a 0.86 ERA, including going seven-plus innings without giving up a run in four straight games. Rookie Shota Imanaga was finally touched up on Tuesday when he gave up a home run to Jurickson Profar in the eighth inning of a 1-0 game. It raised his ERA to 1.08, which is still tops in MLB. — Rogers
Record: 21-15
Previous ranking: 14
The Twins’ recent 12-game winning streak was blemished a bit when they placed Byron Buxton on the 10-day IL last week due to inflammation in his right knee. History suggests it was just a matter of time for the talented center fielder: Buxton has played more than 92 games in a season just once in his 10-year career — in 2017. He has had surgery on the same knee twice, but the Twins have said they are hopeful he’ll return immediately after the 10-day window. They already had their two other top position players go on the IL before the start of May; Royce Lewis is still out, but Carlos Correa is back. The team’s postseason outlook largely depends on players staying healthy. — Castillo
Record: 21-15
Previous ranking: 10
Win-loss records for pitchers don’t mean a lot these days, but as a group, Milwaukee’s bullpen is 14-4 on the season. High-leverage pitches have made when needed, but is it sustainable? For example, Elvis Peguero is 4-0 despite a .313 batting average against, to go along with a 1.69 WHIP. Still, the Brewers’ pen has mostly been good, led by Bryan Hudson and Hoby Milner. Even with the loss of Devin Williams, the Brewers have been able to close out games, a testament to their pitching infrastructure even after manager Craig Counsell moved on. — Rogers
Record: 20-17
Previous ranking: 7
Remember when the Mariners’ offseason plan was to slice into the lineup’s strikeout rate? That hasn’t happened, but we knew that would be the case going into spring training because to slice strikeout rate, you have to acquire batters who make good contact. President of baseball operations Jerry DiPoto wasn’t able to accomplish that over the winter. Nevertheless, it’s stunning that the strikeout decline hasn’t happened at all; in fact, the problem is worse than ever. The Mariners have whiffed 10.38 times per game this season, per baseball-reference.com, which would add another 0.48 strikeouts to last season’s franchise-worst mark. Seattle is on pace to strike out 1,682 times this year, a total that would break the record Minnesota set last season (1,654). — Doolittle
Record: 22-16
Previous ranking: 13
Rumors that the Royals were curious about Luis Arraez before he was ultimately traded from Miami to San Diego are interesting if only because it would indicate that Kansas City is serious about building on its strong start. The hot beginning has begun to cool thanks to a spate of one-run losses and offensive inconsistency. The troubles at the plate can be traced in part to the inevitable return of Salvador Perez to reality after his supersonic start.
More systemic is the total lack of production from the Royals’ outfield, which as a group ranks last in average, on-base percentage and OPS. It’s unclear how Arraez might have addressed that issue, if indeed the Royals were interested, but perhaps the important takeaway is that they might well be in add mode if they remain competitive on the field. — Doolittle
Record: 19-18
Previous ranking: 11
Masataka Yoshida is Boston’s latest addition to the IL, landing there with a left thumb injury that could require surgery. Yoshida was slashing .275/.348/.388 in a diminished role as the team’s primary designated hitter in his second year of a five-year, $90 million contract. But there is some good injury news for the Red Sox on the rotation front. Nick Pivetta (elbow) was activated to start Wednesday, while Brayan Bello (lat) began a rehab assignment Tuesday. Both right-handers would bolster a surprisingly excellent rotation that has kept the Red Sox afloat with the best ERA in the majors by throwing fewer fastballs than any other group of starters. — Castillo
Record: 20-20
Previous ranking: 19
Leave it to A.J. Preller, the Padres’ perpetually active general manager, to acquire an in-his-prime batting champion in early May. Preller did just that by sending a package of four prospects to the Marlins in exchange for Luis Arraez on Friday then watching Arraez debut with four hits in a win over the Diamondbacks the following day. Preller has been faced with a limited budget in 2024. But rather than plug holes on the cheap, he has exhibited uncharacteristic patience in his pursuit of premium talent. He showed it while acquiring frontline starter Dylan Cease just before his team boarded a plane to South Korea to begin its season in late March. And he showed it while waiting until the season’s second month to add Arraez, an ideal fit at the top of the lineup and at designated hitter. Now, Preller will hope his team can finally get hot. — Gonzalez
Record: 19-18
Previous ranking: 16
The Tigers’ promising start hit a bit of a snag during a just-completed road trip that saw them get swept by the Yankees and lose two of three to the division rival Guardians, dropping Detroit five games out of first place. Starting pitchers Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize and Reese Olson provided optimistic performances, but the Tigers’ offense mostly struggled outside of Tuesday’s 11-run outing. Spencer Torkelson and Colt Keith, two of their most heartening young players, have combined for a .195/.266/.253 slash line this season and gone homerless in 268 plate appearances. It’s hard to see the Tigers truly taking off until those two get going. — Gonzalez
Record: 19-19
Previous ranking: 21
With six starting pitchers already on the IL, the Rays received another scare when Ryan Pepiot took a 107.5 mph off his left calf on Sunday. The good news: The Rays said tests didn’t reveal any structural damage. The bad news: Pepiot was placed on the 15-day IL on Wednesday. He has been a bright spot for the Rays’ banged-up pitching staff, recording a 3.68 ERA and 41 strikeouts in seven starts after being acquired from the Dodgers over the offseason in the trade for Tyler Glasnow. Pepiot now will miss time, but it could’ve been worse. — Castillo
Record: 16-20
Previous ranking: 12
Cincinnati’s underperformance on offense is concerning. Only one player — Elly De La Cruz — has an OPS over .800, as free agent pickup Jeimer Candelario is hitting just .206 while both Jonathan India and Spencer Steer aren’t slugging up to expectations. India and Steer are at least getting on base, but the rest of the team is struggling in that department, as well. The Reds rank 28th in on-base percentage with a chance to dip below the lowly Marlins in that category. Even De La Cruz is slumping, hitting just .136 so far in May. — Rogers
Record: 18-18
Previous ranking: 18
Edwin Diaz saw his streak of 26 consecutive save chances converted — what had been the longest streak in the majors — end Sunday when the Rays’ Randy Arozarena hit a two-out solo home run to tie the game in the bottom of the ninth, with the Rays then winning in the 10th. Diaz has now surrendered three home runs in his first 14⅔ innings, matching the season total he allowed in each of 2021 and 2022, when he pitched 62 innings in both campaigns. Mets fans will remember Diaz’s first season with the Mets in 2019, when he was tagged for 15 home runs, so it’s worth watching the home run rate to see if it becomes a bigger issue. — Schoenfield
Record: 17-20
Previous ranking: 17
The D-backs went on a stirring run to the World Series in 2023, but they have struggled against quality teams this season. They were swept by the Braves in early April and already have lost series to the Dodgers, Padres, Mariners, Yankees and Cubs. (Arizona’s favorable run differential is mostly the result of beating up on the lowly Rockies.) But a major positive might have occurred Tuesday night, as star outfielder Corbin Carroll, slashing just .203/.297/.250 through his first 145 plate appearances, homered and drove in five runs in a win over the Reds. He believes he has made some necessary tweaks to his swing path. “I feel like my attack angle and vertical bat angle are becoming more where I want them to be and giving me a bigger window for success,” Carroll told The Arizona Republic. — Gonzalez
Record: 17-20
Previous ranking: 15
Jose Berrios‘ 1.44 ERA entering Tuesday was the lowest in the majors. The right-hander had allowed seven runs in 43⅔ innings across his first seven starts. Then that changed. The Phillies pounded him for eight runs over 3⅔ innings, nearly doubling his ERA to 2.85. Toronto lost 10-1 as the offense was held to fewer than four runs for the 20th time in 36 games. The result highlighted how important the last-place Blue Jays’ pitching staff has been in keeping the team from sinking too deep in the standings. The Blue Jays need Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette & Co. to score more runs or it’ll be a long summer in Toronto. — Castillo
Record: 18-18
Previous ranking: 25
Second baseman Luis Garcia Jr. went 4-for-4 with a home run and four RBIs in Sunday’s win over Toronto, helping the Nationals to a series victory and raising his average to .337 with 19 RBIs (that now sits at .321 with 20 RBIs). Some of Garcia’s advanced metrics are impressive, backing up the hot start: a 93rd percentile ranking in hard-hit rate, 90th in expected batting average and 91st in expected slugging. He strikes out less than average. He won’t turn 24 until May 16 — and yet, he already has over 1,300 plate appearances in the majors. He looks like he’s coming into his own as one of the better-hitting second basemen. — Schoenfield
Record: 12-24
Previous ranking: 22
Josh Hader‘s first few weeks back in the Houston organization have not gone according to plan. Some of that is on him and some is on the Astros as a whole. On the latter front, Hader had just four save opportunities in his first 15 outings. Houston just hasn’t played well enough to max out on his leverage. He has three saves, but he has given up runs in three of the four opportunities. Overall, Hader has more losses and blown saves (four, combined) than saves, owns an ERA over 6 and already has allowed as many runs (11) as he did all of last season. With a soft pocket on the schedule coming up, the Astros might be able to provide him with a few more leads to protect. If that happens, will he be able to convert? — Doolittle
Record: 17-21
Previous ranking: 24
All eyes will be on PNC Park on Saturday when Paul Skenes, the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft, makes his MLB debut against the Cubs. Skenes, just 21, dominated at Triple-A, posting a 0.99 ERA in seven starts. He struck out an eye popping 45 batters in just 27⅓ innings. He’s considered one the best pitching prospects to hit the big leagues in years, reminding some of Mark Prior when he came out of college. A 6-foot-5 righty, Skenes probably could have made the jump from college ball to the big leagues but his stop in the minors only increased the anticipation for his debut. — Rogers
Record: 18-21
Previous ranking: 27
The Athletics looked like they might have been gathering real momentum, capping a six-game winning spree with a 20-4 thumping of the Marlins on Saturday. That victory evened Oakland’s record at 17-17, and in the current format, a .500 mark will almost always allow you to ponder that last wild-card slot. It’s too early to think about that, of course, but after the past couple of years, you could forgive any A’s fan who might still be out there fantasizing about a miracle campaign. Alas, Oakland dropped four of five games since that early-May peak and was outscored 47-33. An upcoming 10-game trip to Seattle, Houston and Kansas City might stifle thoughts of .500 once and for all, except for this: Oakland has played .500 ball away from “home” so far this season. — Doolittle
Record: 17-21
Previous ranking: 20
The Giants were recently swept in a four-game road series from Philadelphia, during which they accumulated 11 runs and dropped to six games below .500. By the time they touched down in Colorado early Tuesday morning, the Giants ranked 21st in OPS and 23rd in runs per game. Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman and Jorge Soler, their three big offseason acquisitions, have all been below-average hitters, as have Mike Yastrzemski and Wilmer Flores.
“We got to clean it up; we got to play better,” Giants manager Bob Melvin told reporters earlier this week. “We left home … we weren’t playing very well. I thought [going on the road] might be a pretty good place for us, being that we haven’t played well. And now we’re playing terribly.” — Gonzalez
Record: 15-21
Previous ranking: 23
Everything that could possibly go wrong for St. Louis is continuing, as catcher Willson Contreras fractured his left forearm in a big blow for an already faltering team. He led the team in doubles, home runs and OPS before going down. Backup Ivan Herrera is capable enough, but he can’t bring the thunder at the plate like Contreras can. With Paul Goldschmidt and others struggling, the loss is even bigger. Someone is going to have to step up for the Cardinals, and it likely will take a few guys to get their offense in gear. — Rogers
Record: 14-23
Previous ranking: 26
One way to view the fortunes of a team is how well its payroll hierarchy lines up with its productivity leaderboard. For the Angels, one glance at those two lists tells the story of a club that has stalled on the contention cycle. According to Cot’s Contracts, here are the five highest-paid Angels this season: Anthony Rendon (injured), Mike Trout (injured), Tyler Anderson (healthy and has been their best player), Robert Stephenson (out for the season) and Aaron Hicks (released May 1). Anderson has been solid and could be an intriguing name on the in-season trade market given his track record and reasonable deal ($13 million both this season and next). At some point, you figure the Halos will need to get aggressive in acquiring future value however they can. — Doolittle
Record: 10-29
Previous ranking: 28
With their disastrous start, the Marlins decided it wasn’t necessary to wait until July and traded Luis Arraez to the Padres for four prospects. Center fielder Dillon Head, the 25th pick in the 2023 draft, was the big name in the deal, with outfielder Jakob Marsee, first baseman Nathan Martorella and reliever Woo-Suk Go also sent to Miami. Peter Bendix, the Marlins’ first-year head of baseball operations, put it bluntly: “We are unlikely to make the playoffs this year.”
Reviews of the trade were generally positive, although there are no guaranteed stars in that group, and it just means more spinning in the mud for the Marlins. You could ask who’s next, but there isn’t much talent here that would interest other teams. Maybe Jesus Luzardo, but he’s on the IL right now with an elbow strain. — Schoenfield
Record: 8-28
Previous ranking: 29
A season full of lows reached a new one last week, when the Rockies were swept by — of all teams — the Marlins. Two of those losses came in walk-off fashion, dropping Colorado a dozen games out of first place and 17 games below .500. The Rockies have yet to win a single series this season despite completing 11 of them. They lost a franchise-record 103 games in 2023, and they are currently on pace to lose far more than that in 2024. They’re not pitching well, which probably isn’t surprising. What is surprising, considering their home environment, is their continued lack of offense. The Rockies rank 24th in slugging percentage and have accumulated just 28 home runs, fourth-fewest in the sport. It doesn’t make sense. — Gonzalez
Record: 9-28
Previous ranking: 30
The White Sox have been signaling they are open for business since spring training, so Wednesday’s trade of Robbie Grossman to the Rangers for minor league pitcher Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa should not come as a surprise. The team added Tommy Pham and Mike Clevinger recently, creating the opening for others to be moved. There are several teams already playing out the string, and we’ve seen two of them make early-May deals, including Chicago. Both the Marlins and White Sox will continue that trend deep into the summer. — Rogers
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Dillon secures playoff spot with Richmond win
Published
9 hours agoon
August 17, 2025By
admin
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Associated Press
Aug 16, 2025, 11:22 PM ET
RICHMOND, Va. — Austin Dillon was hurting mentally and physically when he arrived at Richmond Raceway. He found the cure for what ailed him in victory lane Saturday night.
Racing with a broken rib and some wounded pride, Dillon locked into the Cup Series playoffs with a clean run to his second consecutive victory on the 0.75-mile oval.
It was a redemptive triumph for the Richard Childress Racing driver, whose championship eligibility was revoked by NASCAR last year after he wrecked Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin on the final lap to win at Richmond.
After missing the playoffs and enduring criticism from Logano, Hamlin and others who accused him of racing dirty, he went through a 37-race winless stretch before breaking through at Richmond with his first top five of the season.
“Man, that feels good,” said Dillon, whose previous best finish had been a seventh at Texas Motor Speedway in May. “I really wanted that one. Last year hurt really bad just going through the whole process of it, but this one feels so sweet. Man, I love Richmond.”
He revealed after his sixth career victory that he also had raced with the rib injury the past three weeks since falling off a ladder before the Aug. 3 race at Iowa Speedway.
“I was thrown down a lot this week and didn’t feel great,” he said.
He shrugged off the pain to outduel Ryan Blaney over the final 100 laps, seizing control with a shrewd strategy call to pit his No. 3 Chevrolet four laps earlier than the Team Penske driver’s No. 12 Ford.
Dillon, who led 107 of 400 laps, won by 2.471 seconds over Alex Bowman. Blaney faded to third, followed by Logano and Austin Cindric.
Dillon became the 14th race winner to lock into the 16-driver field for the Cup playoffs, which are contested over the final 10 races of the season.
The regular season will conclude next Saturday night at Daytona International Speedway, where the final two playoff drivers will be confirmed — and at least one will qualify through the points standings.
Tyler Reddick and Bowman are in the final two provisional spots on points, but either could be eliminated if another new winner emerges at Daytona (which has happened twice in the last three years).
“Really stressful on a lot of fronts,” Bowman said. “I think with the way that race normally goes, it’s about a must-win at that point because I think you’re most likely going to have a new winner. Just need to go execute and try to win the race. That’s all we can really do.”
Streak over
After a consistent start to his season, Chase Elliott is in a slump heading into the playoffs. The 2020 Cup champion finished last at Richmond and failed to finish for the first time since last October at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (27 races ago).
Elliott nearly had cleared the pileup on the 198th lap when he was tagged in the right rear by Kyle Busch.
“I think Kyle just didn’t know that we were trying to squeeze by the wreck on the bottom,” Elliott said. “We had a good start to the night, and it just slowly unraveled until it finally fell apart. Hopefully we get on a better stretch starting next week.”
Since briefly taking the points lead after his June 28 win at Atlanta, the seven-time Most Popular Driver has finished outside the top 10 in five of seven races.
Packed house
About an hour before the green flag, Richmond Raceway announced its first sellout since 2008. During its heyday, the track had 112,000 seats that sold out twice annually. Because of softening ticket sales amid lackluster racing, Richmond was scheduled for only one Cup race this season for the first time since 1958, and its grandstand capacity has dwindled to under 50,000.
Denny Hamlin grew up about 20 miles south in Chesterfield, Virginia, and his family once had seats at Richmond.
“We always went to both races, but the sport is in a different place now,” he said. “The way to get it back is you have to sell out at least the one time. That and improve short track racing. If you can do those things, then I think you will have a better case to having two races here.”
Back to reality
A week after his fourth consecutive Cup victory on a street or road course, rookie Shane van Gisbergen finished an impressive 14th at Richmond after scraping the wall twice in qualifying and starting 27th.
Though the New Zealand driver said he feels more competitive and comfortable on short tracks such as Richmond, his inexperience remains a major hurdle. At Richmond, the rookie tried to improve by studying the laps of Hamlin and Trackhouse Racing teammate Ross Chastain.
“Different tracks might be different people,” van Gisbergen said. “Look at who stands out and just try and emulate what they’re doing.”
Up next
The Cup Series regular season will conclude next Saturday at Daytona International Speedway. Harrison Burton is the defending race winner but will be absent from the entry list after losing his ride and moving to the Xfinity Series this season.
Sports
Bowl projections: Every matchup from the Celebration Bowl to the national title game
Published
16 hours agoon
August 16, 2025By
admin
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Kyle Bonagura
CloseKyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
CloseMark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
Aug 15, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
The 2025 college football season is nearly here, and while we all look forward to 16 weeks of excitement, upsets and general mayhem, there will be even more where that came from once we hit the postseason.
The highlight of that, of course, is the 12-team College Football Playoff, now in its second year. As in last season’s inaugural CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
Although no games have yet been played, ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are nonetheless projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, just to whet your appetite for the fun ahead.
And we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20
Times and networks TBD.
Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
Bonagura: No. 11 Miami at No. 6 Notre Dame
Schlabach: No. 11 Arizona State at No. 6 Alabama
Bonagura: No. 10 Arizona State at No. 7 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 10 LSU at No. 7 Notre Dame
Bonagura: No. 9 LSU at No. 8 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 9 Miami at No. 8 Oregon
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: There shouldn’t be any major surprises here, just as there shouldn’t be any confidence from anyone talking about what to expect in college football come December while we’re still in August. Here in the era of free agency, it has become even harder to have a good sense of what most teams will truly look like, and anyone who says otherwise is just faking it.
The old formula — last season’s success + returning starters (QB?) = projection — isn’t as reliable as it used to be. That said, the usual suspects have the money to remain at the top of the sport and that matters more than ever.
Schlabach: It’s a crapshoot when you’re picking the 12 best teams in mid-August, but I gave it my best shot. I went with Texas, Clemson, Penn State and Georgia as my top four seeds, even though the Longhorns and Bulldogs will be breaking in new starting quarterbacks (although Arch Manning and Gunner Stockton did get some playing time last year). Both teams had to replace a plethora of star players who were selected in the NFL draft, but few programs have recruited as well as Georgia and Texas in recent seasons. Honestly, I could see one of three teams –Texas, Georgia or Alabama — winning the SEC, and I think many people might be sleeping on the Crimson Tide after they lost four games in Kalen DeBoer’s first season as coach. It was never going to be easy for anyone to replace Nick Saban, and I still believe DeBoer is one of the best coaches in the sport.
I love what Clemson is bringing back on the defensive line, and I think Cade Klubnik is going to be a star. Penn State brings back many of its best players from a team that just missed reaching the CFP National Championship game last season. If Drew Allar takes the next step, the Nittany Lions might be the class of the Big Ten.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Clemson
Schlabach: No. 10 LSU vs. No. 2 Clemson
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 3 Penn State
CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Georgia
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: After the 12-team playoff was introduced last year, there was one thing I hammered almost every week in this space: It was ridiculous to give the top four seeds to conference champions. It was a format that punished the No. 1 seed, when one of the main purposes of a seeding system is to reward the best team. (No. 1 Oregon was “rewarded” with a quarterfinal against eventual champion Ohio State.)
The intent was understandable, but good on the powers that be who reversed course after one year and installed the commonsense straight seeding format this year. It will likely mean multiple teams from the same conference will get byes — and that’s fine. In this case, I have two teams from the Big Ten (Penn State and Ohio State), while Mark has two from the SEC (Texas and Georgia).
Schlabach: I had Ohio State, Alabama, LSU and Oregon advancing out of the first-round games. I’m not quite as sold on the Ducks as the other three programs with unproven Dante Moore taking over at quarterback and star receiver Evan Stewart sidelined with a knee injury. Oregon’s defense needs to take another step after allowing 109 points in three games against Ohio State and Penn State (although the Ducks did win two of those games). The Ducks play the Nittany Lions on the road Sept. 27 and they don’t play Ohio State, Illinois or Michigan during the regular season.
If LSU’s defense is markedly better this season, the Tigers could be an SEC title contender. They should have one of the most explosive offenses in the FBS with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and receiver Aaron Anderson returning, plus a handful of playmakers from the transfer portal.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 2 Clemson
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Penn State vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 1 Texas
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: According to ESPN BET, there are nine teams with odds of between +550 and +1,500 to win the national title. It’s not a perfect science, of course, but there is a high likelihood the eventual champion will come from that group: Ohio State (+550), Texas (+550), Penn State (+650), Georgia (+800), Clemson (+900), Alabama (+1,000), Notre Dame (+1,100), Oregon (+1,400) and LSU (+1,500). If you’re looking for semifinal teams, then this group is also a good place to start.
Schlabach: I have my top four seeds advancing to the semifinals and top two playing in the CFP National Championship game. As we witnessed last year, the 12-team CFP is much more unpredictable, given the long layoffs for the top seeds and teams getting hot at the right time of the season.
The Georgia-Texas matchup in the Fiesta Bowl would be a rematch of last year’s SEC championship game, which the Bulldogs won 22-19 in overtime. The Longhorns also lost to the Bulldogs at home during the regular season in 2024, and they might have to once again figure out a way to get past them to win the SEC. Texas plays at Georgia on Nov. 15 in one of the league’s most anticipated games. A Penn State-Clemson contest in the Peach Bowl would feature two of the game’s best quarterbacks. It would also be an intriguing chess match with former Nittany Lions defensive coordinator Tom Allen joining Dabo Swinney’s staff this season.
I have Clemson and Texas meeting in the national championship game, and I’ll go with the Longhorns to win it all. That’s putting a lot on Arch Manning in his first season as a starter, and the Texas offensive line is going to have to do a better job of protecting the quarterback than it did in big contests last season.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Southern vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Colorado vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Oregon State vs. San José State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. Jacksonville State
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Coastal Carolina
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: James Madison vs. Florida International
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Miami (Ohio)
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Boston College
Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. North Carolina
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. San José State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Air Force
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Ohio
Schlabach: South Florida vs. Toledo
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Western Kentucky
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Sam Houston State
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Navy
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Iowa
Schlabach: TCU vs. Minnesota
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Texas State
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Arkansas State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Army
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Illinois
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Navy
Schlabach: NC State vs. Tulane
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: SMU vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Texas Tech
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Colorado State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Hawai’i vs. Cal
Schlabach: Colorado State vs. Texas State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Missouri
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Tennessee
Monday, Dec. 29
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arkansas vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Boston College
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: BYU vs. Liberty
Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Ole Miss
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Washington
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Indiana vs. South Carolina
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Virginia vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Colorado
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Texas A&M
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Florida
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Oklahoma
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Duke vs. Florida
TBD
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
Time TBD, Fox
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. USC
Schlabach: SMU vs. Washington
Sports
Simulating the season using EA Sports College Football 26
Published
16 hours agoon
August 16, 2025By
admin
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Max OlsonAug 16, 2025, 07:05 AM ET
Close- Covers the Big 12
- Joined ESPN in 2012
- Graduate of the University of Nebraska
There’s no need to wait five months to find out the ending of this upcoming college football season. We can just ask EA Sports’ College Football 26.
We’ve simulated the 2025 season multiple times in Dynasty mode in search of answers to all the big questions. Who’s getting into the 12-team College Football Playoff? Who’s taking home the Heisman Trophy? Which programs can win it all and which ones are heading toward a coaching search?
Trying to gather as much data as possible, we simulated this season 25 times. We didn’t play any of the games, didn’t adjust rosters or ratings and didn’t alter default settings. We put our faith and trust in the game to forecast the future, and the results could be rather astounding. Here is CFB 26’s take on the season ahead.
Who gets into the College Football Playoff?
Over 25 simulations of this 2025 season, 52 different programs earned at least one College Football Playoff appearance. We love to see that chaos.
The teams that most frequently made the playoff probably won’t shock anyone: Georgia (19), Penn State (19), Miami (18), Oregon (17), Texas Tech (17) and Texas (15). Though that’s a lot of love for the Hurricanes, the game was also quite confident in Clemson (14) and Duke (14) earning CFP bids out of the ACC. Notre Dame earned an at-large spot in the CFP in 10 of the 25 seasons.
Some of the most successful programs of the College Football Playoff era had a tougher time consistently contending in these simulations. Defending national champ Ohio State appeared in 11 of the 25 brackets and reached the national championship game just three times. Alabama earned just five CFP bids and never played for a title.
The list of Power 4 teams that made multiple CFP appearances included Baylor, Auburn, Nebraska, Kansas State, Colorado, Mississippi State, Pitt, SMU and Utah. One rather stunning outcome: LSU’s loaded preseason top-10 team made it in only twice.
Every SEC program got into the CFP at least once — except Kentucky. Florida State, North Carolina, BYU, TCU, Iowa, UCLA and Wisconsin were also among the 23 Power 4 teams that made zero playoff appearances in 25 attempts.
Over all these simulations, the game generated multiple scenarios with 9-3 teams making the bracket. In fact, 50% of all at-large bids (35) went to teams with 9-3 records. In four of those seasons, a 9-3 squad — Georgia twice, Ohio State and Oregon once — won the national championship.
In four instances, the virtual committee put a 9-4 team in the bracket. During one extreme season, a CFP featured six SEC teams that included an 8-4 Auburn squad.
The Big Ten scored more CFP bids (87) than the SEC (83) over our 25 sims, put more teams in the semifinals and won more national titles. The ACC outpaced the Big 12 54-40 in CFP bids earned.
Georgia vs. Penn State title race
Fourteen programs won CFP national championships over the 25 simulations, and no one program was playing for national titles every time. But two clearly moved to the front of the pack: Georgia and Penn State.
The Bulldogs reached the semifinals in 12 of their 19 playoff seasons and delivered Kirby Smart’s third national championship in five of their seven national title games. James Franklin’s squad was just as impressive with 11 semifinals, nine trips to the title game and five championships.
Who else took home the trophy? Oregon (three) and Ohio State (two) won multiple national titles, but the mix of programs that won it all once was far more compelling: Clemson, Florida, Illinois, Miami, Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and USC.
Just like in real life in 2024, earning a top-four seed and a first-round bye did not prove exceedingly beneficial in these 12-team CFP sims. Only seven top-four seeds won national championships.
Just one No. 1 seed went all the way in a simulation: Oklahoma. John Mateer and the Sooners rolled to a 12-1 season and an SEC title win over Georgia, dominated their first two playoff games and pulled off a 24-16 comeback win over Oregon in the championship.
The chaos brackets
Texas Tech has championship ambitions for 2025 and has invested a ton of money in its roster to construct a contender. In one of our simulations — let’s refer to these as Seasons A through Y, so this was Season O — the Red Raiders made Cody Campbell’s dreams come true with a 15-1 season and the program’s first national championship.
Clemson’s 13-0 season, led by Heisman Trophy winner Cade Klubnik, fell apart in the Orange Bowl with a 44-9 loss to Miami. That upset helped clear the path for the Big 12 champs to take down Indiana and Miami and advance to the title game, where they ran into … Nebraska!
The 10-2 Huskers earned a No. 6 seed, won their first-round home game against Iowa State, defeated old rival Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl and blew out Big Ten champ Penn State in the semifinals. In a showdown between Joey McGuire and his mentor Matt Rhule, the Red Raiders prevailed 35-13.
Season U also delivered an ending that would be deeply dissatisfying to SEC fans. Only three teams from the conference — SEC champ South Carolina, Texas A&M and Georgia — earned CFP bids, and all three were bounced quickly, with No. 12 seed Boise State taking down the Aggies and Gamecocks.
The resulting semifinal featured the Broncos, Penn State, Oregon and Illinois and set up a Big Ten title game rematch in the national championship. Penn State won 54-7 in Indianapolis, but Luke Altmyer and his three-loss Illini squad pulled off a stunner in the title game, a 34-31 victory for the program’s first national title since 1951.
In Season T, Florida started 2-2, with losses to South Florida and Miami, which undoubtedly put virtual Billy Napier’s job in jeopardy. The Gators then went on a 12-game win streak, with DJ Lagway putting up 4,736 total yards and 42 TDs and Jadan Baugh emerging as the nation’s leading rusher. They met 15-0 Clemson in the national title game and spoiled their perfect season with a 27-17 victory.
One more simulation that delivered a compelling finale: Season X had Miami quarterback Carson Beck leading the Hurricanes to a 16-0 season and a 47-26 rout of Georgia in a national championship home game at the Orange Bowl. How’s that for a redemptive arc?
Boise State still the G5 favorite
Even without superstar running back Ashton Jeanty, Boise State was still the clear No. 1 among the Group of 5 teams vying for a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Broncos earned CFP bids in 11 of our simulations, followed by Southern Miss and Tulane getting in four times each. We also saw Arkansas State, Jacksonville State, James Madison, Liberty, South Florida and UNLV nab the No. 12 seed in various seasons.
The G5 earned multiple College Football Playoff bids in just one of the 25 season sims, with Boise State (12-1) and Tulane (11-2) earning the No. 9 and No. 11 seeds, respectively. They nearly got three in that year, too, with Memphis finishing 13th in the final CFP rankings.
Sadly, no G5 teams pulled off a Cinderella run to a national championship. Boise State came close as a No. 12 seed in Season E, with a stunning 44-41 road win at Oregon in double overtime, followed by victories over Tennessee and Texas Tech. But the Broncos ran into an unstoppable USC team, losing 45-10 in the national title game.
Conference title scoreboard
Curious which teams the video game likes to win each conference race? Here’s the breakdown. The SEC race was arguably the most competitive, with nine programs winning the league over our 25 simulations. The biggest surprise was defending national champ Ohio State winning just one Big Ten title despite being one of the highest-rated teams in the game, and the same was true for Alabama and LSU.
Your first look at #CFB26 gameplay with @Ryanwms1 himself! 💪 🎮
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— EASPORTSCollege (@EASPORTSCollege) June 30, 2025
ACC: Miami (11), Clemson (6), Duke (5), Louisville (1), Pitt (1), SMU (1)
Big Ten: Oregon (10), Penn State (8), USC (3), Michigan (2), Indiana (1), Ohio State (1)
Big 12: Texas Tech (11), Arizona State (4), Baylor (2), Colorado (2), Iowa State (2), Kansas State (2), Utah (1), West Virginia (1)
SEC: Georgia (6), Texas (6), Texas A&M (4), Oklahoma (3), Florida (2), Alabama (1), LSU (1), South Carolina (1), Tennessee (1)
American: Tulane (11), Memphis (4), Navy (4), USF (4), North Texas (1), UTSA (1)
Conference USA: Liberty (7), Jacksonville State (5), Florida International (4), Sam Houston (4), Middle Tennessee (2), UTEP (2), Kennesaw State (1)
MAC: Toledo (10), Buffalo (8), Miami (Ohio) (5), Ball State (1), Western Michigan (1)
Mountain West: Boise State (15), UNLV (5), Colorado State (1), Hawaii (1), Nevada (1), San Jose State (1), Wyoming (1)
Sun Belt: Southern Miss (14), James Madison (6), Arkansas State (4), Old Dominion (1)
Who wins the Heisman?
Clemson’s Klubnik has the best chances of taking home the Heisman Trophy this season if these simulations are to be believed. Klubnik is tied for the highest-rated QB in the game and won six Heismans over these 25-season sims. The game has a lot of love for new Georgia wide receiver Zachariah Branch, too. The speedy USC transfer finished as the nation’s leading receiver in six of these seasons, including a school-record 1,799 receiving yards in one sim, and won the Heisman four times.
Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin, Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar and Oregon’s Makhi Hughes won Heisman Trophies in multiple seasons of our simulation. The list of one-time winners has an impressive variety: Colorado QB Kaidon Salter, Pitt QB Eli Holstein, USC QB Jayden Maiava, Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza, Louisville RB Isaac Brown and even Miami WR Tony Johnson.
Texas’ Arch Manning did not win the Heisman in any of these seasons and never finished in the top five in Heisman voting, even in the season in which the Longhorns won a national title. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier finished in the top five only once, and Penn State’s Drew Allar did so only twice.
South Florida QB Byrum Brown finished in the top five of Heisman voting in five sims. One season, his top receiver Chas Nimrod finished second for the Heisman. Miami (Ohio) veteran QB Dequan Finn also earned a second-place finish in another season.
The greatest season of all time
Ohio State phenom Jeremiah Smith was a Heisman finalist in 11 of our 25 simulations and won three times, which makes sense given he’s the highest-rated player in the video game. In several of these seasons, Smith put up ridiculous stats and set single-season program records.
In Season V, the sophomore playmaker put together the greatest season by a wide receiver in FBS history. Smith’s final stat line: 170 catches for 2,382 receiving yards and 28 touchdowns.
His quarterback, Sayin, also broke the FBS single-season passing record with 6,312 yards. Yes, they did it over 16 games. But how they did it was more dramatic than their title run in 2024. The Buckeyes went 9-3 with losses to Wisconsin, Penn State and Rutgers. They barely defeated Michigan 20-19 but still got the No. 8 seed in the CFP.
The Buckeyes had to beat Michigan again in a first-round rematch in Columbus, knocked out a 13-0 Oklahoma team in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinals, returned to the championship game and pulled off a 42-35 overtime win over Georgia for back-to-back national titles.
Stars hit the portal
The transfer portal in College Football 26 has expanded and now features thousands of players making moves every season. Huge names such as Texas’ Colin Simmons, Colorado’s Jordan Seaton, Louisville’s Isaac Brown and Minnesota’s Koi Perich, plus a bunch of big-time starting quarterbacks (Rocco Becht, Avery Johnson, Noah Fifita), consistently entered the portal at the end of the season in our 25 simulations. And on rare occasions, it got more improbable.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning hit the portal in three of our 25 simulations after coach Steve Sarkisian left for Michigan (more on that below). Manning stayed in the SEC each time, signing with Georgia in two of the seasons and landing at Alabama in one.
Florida’s Lagway entered the portal in five of our 25 sims with Alabama, Texas and USC emerging as his preferred destinations. In one season, Manning and Lagway made the bizarre decision to team up in Tuscaloosa and compete with Ty Simpson for the starting job.
Season N ended with Texas A&M going 15-1 and defeating Miami to win its first national championship since 1939. And then, for some bizarre reason, Aggies starting QB Marcel Reed entered the portal and transferred to Ole Miss. Oklahoma’s Michael Hawkins Jr. transferred in to replace him in College Station and try to lead a repeat.
Carousel craziness
The addition of real college football head coaches and coordinators makes the coaching carousel in Dynasty mode far more comical in College Football 26. In most of these 25 simulations, the game produced end-of-season coaching changes that would shake up the sport.
In 12 of the 25 seasons, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney replaced Kalen DeBoer at Alabama. It’s worth noting that the Crimson Tide earned just five CFP appearances and took home zero national titles in these simulations. Each time Swinney left, Clemson responded by hiring Shane Beamer from rival South Carolina or hiring Lane Kiffin from Ole Miss.
Michigan was another playoff-or-bust program in these simulations and moved on from Sherrone Moore at the end of 12 of 25 seasons. In 11 of those 12 scenarios, the Wolverines pulled off a stunner and hired Steve Sarkisian from Texas. The one time they didn’t get Sark, they grabbed Oregon’s Dan Lanning.
The Longhorns’ coaching searches typically focused on Kiffin but occasionally resulted in hiring Mike Norvell, Joey McGuire or Kyle Whittingham. In one simulation, they shocked the world and picked Lincoln Riley. In three other sims, Riley left USC and moved back to Norman, Oklahoma, to lead the Sooners.
If you’re rooting for an all-time crazy carousel cycle, Season U stood out. In that simulation, Alabama and Michigan had coaching vacancies after DeBoer and Moore went to the NFL. Michigan hiring Sarkisian led to Norvell at Texas, Jedd Fisch at Florida State, Kyle Whittingham at Washington and Justin Wilcox at Utah. Swinney went to Alabama, Kiffin went to Clemson and Rhett Lashlee replaced him at Ole Miss. Beamer didn’t get the Clemson job but landed at LSU. Matt Campbell filled the South Carolina opening in this scenario, and Brian Kelly landed on his feet at Auburn.
But there’s more! Oklahoma brought back Riley, Brent Venables took over rival Oklahoma State and the Trojans turned to Bret Bielema as their next head coach — right after he led the Illini to the national championship. Eastern Michigan’s Chris Creighton was the lucky coach who took over the defending national champs.
If any of these unthinkable outcomes occur in real life in 2025, just remember: You heard it here first.
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