Connect with us

Published

on

The UK economy is no longer in recession, according to official figures.

Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by a better-than-expected 0.6% between January and March, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

Economists had predicted the figure would be 0.4%.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said it showed the economy had “turned a corner”, adding: “We know things are still tough for many people, but the plan is working, and we must stick to it.”

A recession, which is defined as two consecutive three-month periods where the economy contracts, was declared in February.

It came after the ONS said GDP, a major measure of economic growth, shrank 0.3% between October and December. It followed a contraction of 0.1% in the three months from July to September.

The slump was blamed on reduced consumer spending power amid high inflation and energy bills. Months of wet weather also contributed to keeping shoppers at home, commentators said.

The latest figures also revealed better-than-expected growth for March. GDP was up 0.4% during the month, which was higher than the 0.1% forecast by economists.

GDP growth figures for February were also revised upwards by the ONS, from 0.1% to 0.2%.

While previous recessions have been long-lasting – such as during the global financial crash of 2008 and 2009 – the latest one had been expected to be short-lived.

Recession over with a bang – but will voters forgive government?



Ed Conway

Economics and data editor

@EdConwaySky

Britain is not just out of recession. It is out of recession with a bang.

The economic growth we saw reported this morning by the Office for National Statistics is not just faster than most economists expected, it is the fastest growth we’ve seen since the tail-end of the pandemic when the UK was bouncing back from lockdown.

But, more than that, there are three other facts that the prime minister and chancellor will be gleeful about (and you can expect them to be talking about this number for a long time).

First, it’s not just that the economy is now growing again after two-quarters of contraction (that was the recession).

An economic growth rate of 0.6% is near enough to what economists used to call “trend growth”, back before the crisis – in other words, it’s the kind of number which signifies the economy growing at more or less “normal” rates.

And normality is precisely the thing the government wants us to believe we’ve returned to.

Second, that 0.6% means the UK is, alongside Canada, the fastest-growing economy in the G7 (we’ve yet to hear from Japan, but economists expect its economy to contract in the first quarter).

Third, it’s not just gross domestic product (GDP) that’s up. So too is gross domestic product per head – the number you get when you divide our national income by every person in the country.

Read the full analysis here

Economy ‘returning to full health’

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt described the figures as “encouraging” and said it showed that the economy was “returning to full health”.

He told Sky News: “I think that for families who’ve been having a really tough time, this is an indication that difficult decisions that we’ve taken over recent years are beginning to pay off and we need to stick with them.

“We’re seeing that inflation is falling faster and I think people recognise it’s been a very, very challenging period, but they don’t vote for Conservative governments for us to do popular things.

“They trust us to do the right thing for the long-term benefit of the economy and that is what we’ve been doing.”

However, opposition parties said there was little cause for celebration.

Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “This is no time for Conservative ministers to be doing a victory lap and telling the British people that they have never had it so good.

“The economy is still £300 smaller per person than when Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister.”

Lib Dems Treasury spokesperson Sarah Olney MP said: “This Conservative Government crashed the economy and sent mortgages spiralling.

“If Rishi Sunak thinks hard-hit households will be celebrating today, he is even more out of touch than we thought.”

Read more from business news:
Interest rate cut is not far off

New Post Office body plan rejected
Tata Steel strike moves closer

Liz McKeown, the ONS’s director of economic statistics, said: “There was broad-based strength across the service industries with retail, public transport and haulage, and health all performing well.

“Car manufacturers also had a good quarter. These were only a little offset by another weak quarter for construction.

“In the month of March the economy grew robustly led, again, by services with wholesalers, the health sector and hospitality all doing well.”

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘Path is downwards’ on interest rates

Ruth Gregory, from research firm Capital Economics, said the figures suggested the UK’s economic recovery would be stronger than previously anticipated.

She added: “All the early indicators suggest that GDP growth rose robustly in April as well.

“At the margin, this may mean the Bank of England doesn’t need to rush to cut interest rates. But the timing of the first interest rate cut will ultimately be determined by the next inflation and labour market releases.”

The latest figures come after the Bank of England held interest rates at 5.25% on Thursday and issued new forecasts for the UK economy.

The Bank projected that growth would be stronger this year, with unemployment and inflation rates lower than previously expected.

Continue Reading

Business

US chipmaker Qualcomm agrees takeover of UK’s Alphawave

Published

on

By

US chipmaker Qualcomm agrees takeover of UK's Alphawave

US chipmaker Qualcomm has agreed a $2.4bn (£1.8bn) takeover of Alphawave – a deal set to result in another UK tech firm falling into foreign hands.

Shareholders in the UK firm, which designs semiconductors attractive in artificial intelligence (AI) development, will receive 183p per share under the terms.

The price represents a 95% premium to that seen before Qualcomm disclosed its interest.

Money latest: Why you probably should not book a hotel on your laptop

News of the agreement was announced as the annual London Tech Week got under way in the capital, with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer speaking of tech’s importance to the UK’s prospects.

Softbank-owned chipmaker ARM – previously a London-listed firm before it was snapped up under a £32bn deal in 2016 – had also been chasing Alphawave but has since walked away.

The UK company’s “serdes” technology is said to be the main prize within the deal.

More on Artificial Intelligence

It underpins the speed at which data is processed by chips – crucial for AI development.

Qualcomm said the deal would bolster its enhancement of AI. Its chips have been widely used by Apple and Samsung though its interest in iPhones has recently been curtailed through the development of Apple’s own chip components.

Alphawave said it considered the terms of the cash offer to be fair and reasonable and that it intended to unanimously recommend it to its shareholders.

In his speech marking the start of London Tech Week, the PM said tech and AI were “absolutely central” to the UK.

Cheap valuations and a weak pound have made UK firms attractive to US investors in recent years, while a number of UK listed firms have shifted primary listings to the United States in a bid to attract greater investment.

The government has moved to make UK listings more attractive as part of its growth agenda.

The prime minister launched a new free government partnership with industry, including Nvidia, Amazon, Google and BT, to train 7.5 million UK workers in essential skills to use AI by 2030.

A separate “TechFirst” initiative will roll out AI training to every secondary school over three years.

Read more from Sky News:
US-China hold trade war talks in London
River Island owners draw up rescue plan

Sir Keir told the audience in central London: “AI and tech makes us more human, which sounds an odd thing to say, but it’s true.

“We need to say it because… some people out there are sceptical. They do worry about AI taking their job.”

He said: “For people listening to us, they worry about will it make their lives more complicated? Even for businesses who get it, the pace of change can feel relentless.”

Sir Keir added: “I believe the way that we work through this together is critical.”

Continue Reading

Business

The winners and losers in Rachel Reeves’s spending review

Published

on

By

The winners and losers in Rachel Reeves's spending review

“It’s a big deal for this government,” says Simon Case.

“It’s the clearest indication yet of what they plan to do between now and the general election, a translation of their manifesto.

“This is where you should expect the chancellor to say, on behalf of the government: ‘This is what we’re about’.”

As the former cabinet secretary, Mr Case was the man in charge of the civil service during the last spending review, in 2021.

On Wednesday, Rachel Reeves will unveil the Labour government’s priorities for the next three years. But it’s unclear whether it will provide all that much of an answer about what it’s really about.

Unlike the Autumn budget, when the chancellor announced her plans on where to tax and borrow to fund overall levels of spending, the spending review will set out exactly how that money is divided up between the different government departments.

Since the start of the process in December those departments have been bidding for their share of the cash – setting out their proposed budgets in a negotiation which looks set to continue right up to the wire.

This review is being conducted in an usual level of detail, with every single line of spending assessed, according to the chancellor, on whether it represents value for money and meets the government’s priorities. Budget proposals have been scrutinised by so called “challenge panels” of independent experts.

It’s clear that health and defence will be winners in this process given pre-existing commitments to prioritise the NHS – with a boost of up to £30bn expected – and to increase defence spending.

On Sunday morning, the government press release trumpeted an impressive-sounding “£86bn boost” to research and development (R&D), with the Science and Technology Secretary Peter Kyle sent out on the morning media round to celebrate as record levels of investment.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

What will be in spending review?

We’re told this increased spending on the life sciences, advanced manufacturing and defence will lead to jobs and growth across the country, with every £1 in investment set to lead to a £7 economic return.

But the headline figure is misleading. It’s not £86bn in new funding. That £86bn has been calculated by adding together all R&D investment across government for the next three years, which will reach an annual figure of £22.5bn by 2029-30. The figure for this year was already set to be £20.4bn; so while it’s a definite uplift, much of that money was already allocated.

Read More:
Reeves turning around UK finances ‘like Steve Jobs did for Apple’

Government struggles to slash foreign aid spent on asylum hotels

Peter Kyle also highlighted plans for “the most we’ve ever spent per pupil in our school system”.

I understand the schools budget is to be boosted by £4.5bn. Again, this is clearly an uplift – but over a three-year period, that equates to just £1.5bn a year (compared with an existing budget of £63.7bn). It also has to cover the cost of extending free school meals, and the promised uplift in teachers’ pay.

In any process of prioritisation there are losers as well as winners.

We already know about planned cuts to the Department of Work and Pensions – but other unprotected departments like the Home Office and the Department of Communities and Local Government are braced for a real spending squeeze.

We’ve heard dire warnings about austerity 2.0, and the impact that would have on the government’s crime and policing priorities, its promises around housing and immigration, and on the budgets for cash-strapped local councils.

The chancellor wants to make it clear to the markets she’s sticking to her fiscal rules on balancing the books for day-to-day spending.

👉 Click here to listen to Electoral Dysfunction on your podcast app 👈

But the decision to loosen the rules around borrowing to fund capital investment have given her greater room to manoeuvre in funding long-term infrastructure projects.

That’s why we’ve seen her travelling around the country this week to promote the £15.6bn she’s spending on regional transport projects.

The Treasury team clearly wants to focus on promoting the generosity of these kind of investments, and we’ll hear more in the coming days.

But there’s a real risk the story of this spending review will be about the departments which have lost out – and the promises which could slip as a result.

Continue Reading

Business

Farage to pledge to reopen blast furnaces in Port Talbot

Published

on

By

Farage to pledge to reopen blast furnaces in Port Talbot

Nigel Farage will pledge to reopen Port Talbot’s steel blast furnaces if in power in Wales, as his Reform UK party sets its sights on being the government in the Senedd next year.

In a speech in Port Talbot later, Mr Farage will outline how next year’s Welsh parliament elections will be the primary focus of his party.

The MP for Clacton has already ruled out standing at the Senedd elections next year. It is unclear who will lead the Reform party in Wales.

Reindustrialising Wales will be at the centre of his speech. Acknowledging the task at hand won’t be quick or easy, Mr Farage is also expected to suggest a return to coal mining, if suitable, as part of Reform’s “long-term ambition to reopen Port Talbot steel”.

Tata Steel's Port Talbot steelworks in South Wales. File pic: PA
Image:
The steelworks in Port Talbot. File pic: PA

A Reform source told Sky News: “We have said and say again that we think it’s better to use British coal for British steel than imported coal.”

Port Talbot was the largest steelmaking plant in the UK until the two blast furnaces were switched off in September 2024, which saw the loss of 2,800 jobs as part of the transition to greener production methods. Electric arc furnaces are replacing both blast furnaces and are set to be operational by early 2028.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Farage could ‘definitely’ become next PM, says Dominic Cummings

Read more:
How the end of coal and closure of Port Talbot steelworks are related
UK becomes first G7 nation to exit coal-fired power

More on Nigel Farage

Wales is set to head to the polls in May next year and Reform hopes to end the 26-year Labour government reign in Wales.

The Reform source said Mr Farage’s speech “will tap into the hearts and minds of a deeply patriotic nation that feels betrayed and forgotten about by Labour”.

Recent polling by Barn Cymru saw the Labour vote share in Wales collapse to 18%, with Reform second in the polls on 25% behind Plaid Cymru on 30%, whereas the Conservatives who are currently the opposition in the Senedd are on 13%.

Reform believes the performance of their party in Scotland confirms they can win in Wales next year. The source told Sky News: “We are the main challenger to Labour in Wales. A vote for the Conservatives is a vote for Labour.”

Continue Reading

Trending