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The UK economy is no longer in recession, according to official figures.

Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by a better-than-expected 0.6% between January and March, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

Economists had predicted the figure would be 0.4%.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said it showed the economy had “turned a corner”.

He told Sky News’s Ed Conway: “I am pleased that while there’s more work to do, today’s figures show that the economy now has real momentum, and I’m confident that with time, people will start to feel the benefits of that.

“We’ve had multiple months now where wages are rising, energy bills have fallen, mortgage rates are down and taxes are being cut… I’m pleased with the progress that we’re making.”

Mr Sunak added: “I am confident the economy is getting healthier every week.”

Pic: Jacob King/PA
Image:
Pic: Jacob King/PA

A recession, which is defined as two consecutive three-month periods where the economy contracts, was declared in February.

It came after the ONS said GDP, a major measure of economic growth, shrank 0.3% between October and December. It followed a contraction of 0.1% in the three months from July to September.

The slump was blamed on reduced consumer spending power amid high inflation and energy bills. Months of wet weather also contributed to keeping shoppers at home, commentators said.

The latest figures also revealed better-than-expected growth for March. GDP was up 0.4% during the month, which was higher than the 0.1% forecast by economists.

GDP growth figures for February were also revised upwards by the ONS, from 0.1% to 0.2%.

While previous recessions have been long-lasting – such as during the global financial crash of 2008 and 2009 – the latest one had been expected to be short-lived.

Recession over with a bang – but will voters forgive government?



Ed Conway

Economics and data editor

@EdConwaySky

Britain is not just out of recession. It is out of recession with a bang.

The economic growth we saw reported this morning by the Office for National Statistics is not just faster than most economists expected, it is the fastest growth we’ve seen since the tail-end of the pandemic when the UK was bouncing back from lockdown.

But, more than that, there are three other facts that the prime minister and chancellor will be gleeful about (and you can expect them to be talking about this number for a long time).

First, it’s not just that the economy is now growing again after two-quarters of contraction (that was the recession).

An economic growth rate of 0.6% is near enough to what economists used to call “trend growth”, back before the crisis – in other words, it’s the kind of number which signifies the economy growing at more or less “normal” rates.

And normality is precisely the thing the government wants us to believe we’ve returned to.

Second, that 0.6% means the UK is, alongside Canada, the fastest-growing economy in the G7 (we’ve yet to hear from Japan, but economists expect its economy to contract in the first quarter).

Third, it’s not just gross domestic product (GDP) that’s up. So too is gross domestic product per head – the number you get when you divide our national income by every person in the country.

Read the full analysis here

Economy ‘returning to full health’

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt described the figures as “encouraging” and said it showed that the economy was “returning to full health”.

He told Sky News: “I think that for families who’ve been having a really tough time, this is an indication that difficult decisions that we’ve taken over recent years are beginning to pay off and we need to stick with them.

“We’re seeing that inflation is falling faster and I think people recognise it’s been a very, very challenging period, but they don’t vote for Conservative governments for us to do popular things.

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PM: ‘UK economy has real momentum’

“They trust us to do the right thing for the long-term benefit of the economy and that is what we’ve been doing.”

However, opposition parties said there was little cause for celebration.

Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “This is no time for Conservative ministers to be doing a victory lap and telling the British people that they have never had it so good.

“The economy is still £300 smaller per person than when Rishi Sunak became prime minister.”

Sarah Olney MP, Treasury spokesperson for the Liberal Democrats, added: “This Conservative government crashed the economy and sent mortgages spiralling.

“If Rishi Sunak thinks hard-hit households will be celebrating today, he is even more out of touch than we thought.”

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Liz McKeown, the ONS’s director of economic statistics, said: “There was broad-based strength across the service industries with retail, public transport and haulage, and health all performing well.

“Car manufacturers also had a good quarter. These were only a little offset by another weak quarter for construction.

“In the month of March, the economy grew robustly led, again, by services with wholesalers, the health sector and hospitality all doing well.”

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‘Path is downwards’ on interest rates

Ruth Gregory, from research firm Capital Economics, said the figures suggested the UK’s economic recovery would be stronger than previously anticipated.

She added: “All the early indicators suggest that GDP growth rose robustly in April as well.

“At the margin, this may mean the Bank of England doesn’t need to rush to cut interest rates. But the timing of the first interest rate cut will ultimately be determined by the next inflation and labour market releases.”

The latest figures come after the Bank of England held interest rates at 5.25% on Thursday and issued new forecasts for the UK economy.

The Bank projected that growth would be stronger this year, with unemployment and inflation rates lower than previously expected.

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Thousands of farmers to descend on Downing Street to protest against inheritance tax changes

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Thousands of farmers to descend on Downing Street to protest against inheritance tax changes

Thousands of farmers from across the UK are expected to gather outside Downing Street today – in the biggest protest yet against the government’s changes to inheritance tax rules.

The reforms, announced in last month’s budget, will mean farms worth over £1m will be subject to 20% inheritance tax from April 2026.

Farmers say that will lead to land being sold to pay the tax bill, impact food security and the future of British farming.

The Government insists it is “committed” to the farming industry but has had to make “difficult decisions”.

Farmers from Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and England will arrive in London to hear speeches from agricultural leaders.

Sky News understands TV presenter and farm owner Jeremy Clarkson, Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch and Lib Dem leader Ed Davey will also address crowds.

Protestors will then march around Parliament Square.

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A sign in a field by the M40 near Warwick, protesting the changes to inheritance tax (IHT) rules in the recent budget. Pic: PA
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A sign in a field by the M40 near Warwick, protesting the changes to inheritance tax rules in the recent budget. Pic: PA

‘It’s really worrying’

“It’s unfortunate, as Labour had originally said they would support farmers,” said fourth-generation farmer Will Weaver, who is attending today’s rally.

His 500-acre cow and sheep farm in South Gloucestershire has been in his family since 1939.

“We’ve probably buried our head in the sand a little bit. I think, back of a fag-packet rough estimates, tax is going to be north of half a million [pounds].”

The government is keen to stress that farmers will get a decade to pay the bill – but that comes as little comfort to Will: “It’s more than our profit in any year that we’ve had in the last 10 years. Dad’s saying we’ll have to sell something. I don’t know if we’ll be able to raise that sort of money through a mortgage. It’s really worrying.”

As anger grows, there continues to be disagreement between the National Farmer’s Union and the Government over how many farms will actually be impacted by the change.

The Treasury says only the wealthiest estates, around 500 of them, will have to pay under the new rules – claiming 72% of farms won’t be impacted.

But farmers say that calculation is incorrect – citing that DEFRA’s own figures show 66% of farms are valued at over £1m and that the government has undervalued many estates.

At the same time as the rally, the NFU is addressing 1,800 of its members in Westminster before they lobby MPs.

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The president of the National Farmers’ Union says farmers are feeling

‘Understanding has been betrayed’

Max Sealy represents the NFU Dairy Board in the South of England.

“We have a detailed job to do to explain why this is wrong not just for farming, not just for the countryside and not just for our families, but for the economy in general,” he said.

“This is a bad tax – it’s been badly implemented because it will affect growth productivity in the country.”

He told Sky News Labour made promises to farmers ahead of the election.

“Both Steve Reed and Keir Starmer came to our conference two years ago and told us farming wasn’t a business like any others and that he understood the long-term nature of farming – that understanding has been betrayed,” he said.

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And the government say:

In a joint statement, Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Steve Reed said: “Farmers are the backbone of Britain, and we recognise the strength of feeling expressed by farming and rural communities in recent weeks. We are steadfast in our commitment to Britain’s farming industry because food security is national security.

“It’s why we are investing £5bn into farming over the next two years – the largest amount ever directed towards sustainable food production, rural economic growth and nature’s recovery in our country’s history.

“But with public services crumbling and a £22bn fiscal hole that this Government inherited, we have taken difficult decisions.

“The reforms to Agricultural Property Relief ensure that wealthier estates and the most valuable farms pay their fair share to invest in our schools and health services that farmers and families in rural communities rely on.”

A Met Police spokesperson said it was “well prepared” for the protest and would have officers deployed to ensure it passes off “safely, lawfully and in a way that prevents serious disruption”.

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