Sunak and Starmer facing historic unpopularity with ethnically diverse communities, polling suggests
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are both facing a historic lack of popularity among ethnically diverse communities, new polling suggests.
While ethnically diverse community voting trends are incredibly complex and almost always hard to predict, some polling can give useful indications that can speak to the mood of the country.
A comprehensive set of data based on polling by Ipsos and shared exclusively with Sky News gives us a general sense of how the leaders of the two main parties are faring at this very specific time.
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Sunak more popular with white voters
Mr Sunak was named the UK’s next leader on the festival of Diwali, serving as a reminder of the milestone in Britain’s evolution as a multicultural and multi-faith society.
He’s the UK’s first prime minister from an ethnically diverse background and the first Hindu prime minister, but in terms of how much ethnically diverse communities have rewarded him for these historic firsts, it’s a somewhat surprising figure.
Over the past year, his approval rating among ethnically diverse communities is -53.
That figure is historic too – it’s one of the worst of any prime minister in nearly 30 years.
Actually, from these figures, he’s much better liked by white voters – who give him a rating of -41.
This is perhaps unsurprising, given that historically the majority of ethnically diverse communities have voted Labour.
Though support for the Conservatives reached a high of 30% in the first half of 2016 and only falling sharply in the aftermath of Brexit and then in the 2017 general election under a different leader.
Sir Keir behind Blair and Brown
For the Labour Party then, the stakes could not be much higher as they bill themselves as the party of equality and progressive politics and ethnically diverse communities have traditionally rewarded them for it.
The party has consistently held large leads with ethnically diverse community voters over the last few decades and under previous Labour leaders, often given net positive satisfaction levels.
The current leader, Sir Keir Starmer, has a more favourable rating than the current prime minister, with an average satisfaction rating over the past year of -32.
But he is also considerably more popular among white voters.
And when you compare these numbers to previous Labour leaders, it is more stark.
Sir Keir’s standing with ethnically diverse community voters currently is the lowest level a Labour leader has recorded among black and south Asian voters since 1996.
Far worse than the very worst ratings recorded by either Tony Blair (at -11 during the Iraq War) or Gordon Brown (at -13).
‘The Gaza Effect’
Now, there are myriad reasons why individuals and different communities have drifted from the central parties and traditional voting patterns, but Ipsos has outlined one specific thread of dissatisfaction with both parties that they call “The Gaza Effect”.
During by-elections and the recent local elections we saw a wave of independent candidates running on this single issue platform, most prominently George Galloway in Rochdale, but this data shows an indication of how deep that sentiment runs.
When you compare the aggregate satisfactions levels across the year for both leaders, you can see how different ratings become for ethnically diverse communities when compared to white voters.
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For white voters, there’s next to no effect in satisfaction levels towards the two leaders post 7 October.
When you compare that data to the rating ethnically diverse community voters have given the two leaders, there is a noticeable drop in support.
For Mr Sunak the drop is only around 13 points, but for Sir Keir, it is far more significant with a huge fall of 29 points.
The scale of the impact is almost impossible to predict, and the drop in these figures won’t necessarily translate into votes or even seats – but what is clear is these figures show both parties will need to offer ethnically diverse communities much more to win their vote at the next election.
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Kemi Badenoch has called for a national inquiry into the grooming scandal that took place across UK towns and cities, arguing one was “long overdue”.
The Tory leader said 2025 “must be the year that victims get justice” after it emerged that Jess Phillips, the safeguarding minister, had rejected calls from Oldham council for a public inquiry into child exploitation in the town.
In a post on X, the Tory leader wrote: “The time is long overdue for a full national inquiry into the rape gangs scandal.
“Trials have taken place all over the country in recent years but no one in authority has joined the dots. 2025 must be the year that the victims start to get justice.”
Ms Badenoch was joined in her calls by shadow safeguarding minister Alicia Kearns, who has written to Ms Phillips asking her to reverse the government’s decision regarding Oldham.
“We have asked for planned Conservative measures to be enacted, to reverse the Oldham refusal, and for a statutory inquiry into grooming and rape gangs,” she wrote.
Girls as young as 11 were groomed and raped across a number of towns in England – including Oldham, Rochdale, Rotherham and Telford – over a decade ago in a national scandal that was exposed in 2013.
The following year a report by Prof Alexis Jay revealed the scale of exploitation in Rotherham between 1997 and 2013 – where around 1,400 girls were abused – and the failure of police and social services to intervene.
It was followed by the statutory Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse (IICSA), also chaired by Prof Jay, who found in her final report published in 2022 that children were still being sexually exploited by networks in all parts of England and Wales in the “most degrading and destructive ways”.
The final report recommended that institutions that work with children should be required by law to report suspicions of child sexual abuse.
In a letter to Oldham Council dated October last year, Ms Phillips, the Labour MP for Birmingham Yardley, said that while she recognised the “strength of feeling” over the matter, she believed it was for “Oldham Council alone to decide to commission an inquiry into child sexual exploitation locally, rather than for the government to intervene”.
She added: “I welcome the council’s resolution to do so, as set out in your letter, and to continue its important work with victims and survivors.
“Should the council choose to proceed, I would look forward to the inquiry’s findings and ensuring that any lessons that can be learnt to improve the frontline response are adopted at a local and, where applicable, at a national level.”
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Children ‘still at risk’ of abuse in Rochdale
Ms Phillips has been criticised for her response by Conservative politicians, including former home secretary Suella Braverman, who accused the minister of “letting down victims”.
However, Ms Badenoch faced criticism on social media by Sammy Woodhouse, a survivor of sexual abuse in Rotherham, who said: “I’ve met with your party for 12 years about this when you were in power. I asked for an inquiry into every town and city, none of you cared. Now you need the vote you want to speak on it?”
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And Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said: “Talk is cheap. The Conservatives had 14 years in government to launch an inquiry.
“The establishment has failed the victims of grooming gangs on every level.”
An Oldham Council spokesman said: “Survivors sit at the heart of our work to end child sexual exploitation.
“Whatever happens in terms of future inquiries, we have promised them that their wishes will be paramount, and we will not renege on that pledge.”
A Labour spokesperson said: “Child sexual abuse and exploitation are the most horrendous crimes and the Home Office supports police investigations and independent inquiries to get truth and justice for victims.
“We have supported both the national overarching inquiry into child abuse which reported in 2022, and local independent inquiries and reviews including in Telford, Rotherham and Greater Manchester.
“This government is working urgently to strengthen the law so that these crimes are properly reported and investigated.”
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