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Grocery inflation has eased to its lowest level since October 2021, according to industry data released before official figures tipped to show a big dent in the overall pace of price increases in the economy.

Kantar Worldpanel – which tracks supermarket till prices, sales and market share – said its measure of grocery inflation slowed to 2.4% in the four weeks to 12 May from 3.2% the previous month.

The measure showed there is still upward pressure on the cost of items such as chilled fruit juices, drinks, sugar confectionery and chocolate confectionery – the latter a consequence of poor cocoa harvests.

Prices were still falling fastest in toilet tissues, butter and milk, the report said. It has previously pointed to wider assistance in falling costs from a price war among supermarkets.

Fraser McKevitt, Kantar’s head of retail and consumer insight, said: “Grocery price inflation is gradually returning to what we would consider more normal levels. It’s now sitting only 0.8 percentage points higher than the 10-year average of 1.6% between 2012 and 2021, which is just before prices began to climb.

“Typically, an inflation rate of around 3% is when we start to see marked changes in consumers’ behaviour, with shoppers trading down to cheaper items when the rate goes above this line and vice versa when the rate drops.

“However, after nearly two and a half years of rapidly rising prices, it could take a bit longer for shoppers to unwind the habits they have learnt to help them manage the cost of living crisis.”

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The cost of a weekly shop has been a key plank in the squeeze on shoppers’ budgets which began as economies got back up to speed following the COVID pandemic.

The bulk of the grocery inflation, however, was a result of the unprecedented surge in energy and other key commodity prices that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The pace of grocery inflation has now been easing for 15 months.

There are some risks ahead, which include the cost of some imported fresh food from the European Union becoming more expensive due to the impact of additional Brexit red tape from border checks.

However, these are not expected to have a considerable impact on the headline measure of inflation over the coming months.

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Brexit border checks to ‘add billions’ in costs

The consumer prices index (CPI) rate is tipped by economists to slow to 2%, or thereabouts, over the 12 months to April when the Office for National Statistics (ONS) releases the latest inflation data on Wednesday morning.

Given that the Bank of England‘s inflation target is 2%, the progress in slashing the pace of price growth has given rise to expectations that interest rates could soon be cut.

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‘Path is downwards’ on interest rates – Bailey

Financial markets currently see a 58% chance that the Bank rate will fall to 5% from 5.25% following the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in June.

Some members of the MPC, including the Bank’s governor Andrew Bailey, have hinted at a “summer” cut – but they add their decisions will be based on the latest data before that meeting.

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Sainsburys profits top £1bn after closing all cafes and cutting 3,000 jobs

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Sainsburys profits top £1bn after closing all cafes and cutting 3,000 jobs

Annual profits at the UK’s second biggest supermarket, Sainsbury’s, have reached £1bn.

The supermarket chain reported that sales and profits grew over the year to March.

It also comes after Sainsbury’s announced in January plans to close of all of its in-store cafes and the loss of 3,000 jobs.

But the high profits are not expected to increase, according to Sainsbury’s, which warned of heightened competition as a supermarket price war heats up.

Tesco too warned of “intensification of competition” last week, as Asda’s executive chairman earlier this year committed to foregoing profits in favour of price cuts.

Sainsbury’s said it had spent £1bn lowering prices, leading to a “record-breaking year in grocery”, its highest market share gain in more than a decade, as more people chose Sainsbury’s for their main shop.

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It’s the second most popular supermarket with market share of ahead of Asda but below Tesco, according to latest industry figures from market research company Kantar.

In the same year, the supermarket announced plans to cut more than 3,000 jobs and the closure of its remaining 61 in-store cafes as well as hot food, patisserie, and pizza counters, to save money in a “challenging cost environment”.

This financial year, profits are forecast to be around £1bn again, in line with the £1.036bn in retail underlying operating profit announced today for the year ended in March.

The grocer has been a vocal critic of the government’s increase in employer national insurance contributions and said in January it would incur an additional £140m as a result of the hike.

Higher national insurance bills are not captured by the annual results published on Thursday, as they only took effect in April, outside of the 2024 to 2025 financial year.

Supermarkets gearing up for a price war and not bulking profits further could be good news for prices of shelves, according to online investment planner AJ Bell’s investment director Russ Mould.

“The main winners in a price war would ultimately be shoppers”, he said.

“Like Tesco, Sainsbury’s wants to equip itself to protect its competitive position, hence its guidance for flat profit in the coming year as it looks to offer customers value for money.”

There has been, however, a warning from Sainsbury’s that higher national insurance contributions will bring costs up for consumers.

News shops are planned in “key target locations”, Sainsbury’s results said, which, along with further openings, “provides a unique opportunity to drive further market share gains”.

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US markets fall as AI chipmakers mourn new restrictions on China exports

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US markets fall as AI chipmakers mourn new restrictions on China exports

US stock markets suffered more significant losses on Wednesday, with stocks in leading AI chipmakers slumping after firms said new restrictions on exports to China would cost them billions.

Nvidia fell 6.87% – and was at one point down 10% – after revealing it would now need a US government licence to sell its H20 chip.

Rival chipmaker AMD slumped 7.35% after it predicted a $800m (£604m) charge due to its MI308 also needing a licence.

Dutch firm ASML, which makes hardware essential to chip manufacturing, fell more than 5% after it missed order expectations and said US tariffs created uncertainty.

The losses filtered into the tech-dominated Nasdaq index, which recovered slightly to end 3% down, while the larger S&P 500 fell 2.2%.

A board above the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange, shows the closing number for the Dow Jones industrial average Wednesday, April 16, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)
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Pic: AP

Such losses would have been among the worst in years were it not for the turmoil over recent weeks.

It comes as China remains the focus of Donald Trump’s tariff regime, with both countries imposing tit-for-tat charges of over 100% on imports.

The US commerce department said in a statement it was “committed to acting on the president’s directive to safeguard our national and economic security”.

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Could Trump make a trade deal with UK?

Nvidia’s bespoke China chip is already deliberately less powerful than products sold elsewhere after intervention from the previous Biden administration.

However, the Trump government is worried the H20 and others could still be used to build a supercomputer in China, threatening national security and US dominance in AI.

Nvidia said the move would cost it around $5.5bn (£4.1bn) and the licensing requirement would be in place for the “indefinite future”.

Nvidia’s recently announced a $500bn (£378bn) investment to build infrastructure in America – something Mr Trump heralded as a victory in his mission to boost US manufacturing.

However, it appears to have been too little to stave off the new restrictions.

Pressure has also come from the Democrats, with senator Elizabeth Warren writing to the commerce secretary and urging him to limit chip sales to China.

Meanwhile, the head of US central bank also warned on Wednesday that US tariffs could slow the economy and raise inflation more than expected.

Jerome Powell said the bank would need more time to decide on lowering interest rates.

“The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated,” he said.

“The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.”

Predictions of a recession in the US have risen significantly since the president revealed details of the import taxes a few weeks ago.

However, he subsequently paused the higher rates for 90 days to allow for negotiations.

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Inflation surprisingly continues to fall but expect an April rebound due to across-the-board bill hikes

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Inflation surprisingly continues to fall but expect an April rebound due to across-the-board bill hikes

Inflation fell more than expected and for the second month in a row, official figures show.

The consumer price index (CPI) measure of inflation fell to 2.6% in March, down from 2.8% in February and 3% in January, according to Office for National Statistics (ONS) data.

It means prices are rising at the slowest pace since December and closest to the Bank of England’s 2% target.

 

The rate is also lower than expected by economists polled by Reuters, who anticipated inflation of 2.7%.

But the drop is likely to be short-lived as a raft of bill rises kicked in at the start of April.

Energy, water, and council tax bills rose throughout the UK at the start of this month.

Why did inflation fall?

More on Inflation

It was a fall in fuel costs, thanks to lower oil prices that led to the surprise drop, combined with the unchanged food price rise.

The price of games, toys and hobbies, as well as data processing equipment, all fell.

These drops counteracted a “strong” rise in the price of clothes, the ONS said.

The late timing of Easter also meant comparing March 2024 – as the ONS does with its annual inflation rise figure – with March 2025 isn’t comparing like with like.

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Easter and the associated school break bring things like higher airfares and hotel costs, something that was not seen last month as the feast takes place in April this year.

What does this mean for interest rates?

All measures of inflation fell, in a boost to the Bank of England as they mull interest rate cuts.

A key way of assessing price rises, core inflation, which excludes volatile price items like fuel and food, dropped to 3.4%.

It’s closely watched by the rate setters at the Bank of England, who meet next month and are widely expected to make borrowing less expensive by bringing interest rates down to 4.25%.

Another important measure – services inflation – dropped to 4.7% from 5% in February. As a predominantly services-based economy, a drop in that rate is good news for central bankers and households.

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Could Trump’s tariff be positive?

Inflation data, combined with the fact job vacancies are at pre-pandemic levels for the first time since 2021, has meant traders are now expecting four interest rate cuts this year, which would bring the base interest rate to 3.5% by December.

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