How renewables could beat natural gas in US generating capacity within 3 years – in numbers
US renewables’ electrical generating capacity could be close to – and may even surpass – natural gas within three years, according to FERC data.
In March alone, solar accounted for 99.7% of capacity added, marking the seventh consecutive month that it provided more new generating capacity than any other energy source, according to the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) latest monthly “Energy Infrastructure Update” report (with data through March 31, 2024), which was reviewed by the SUN Day Campaign.
FERC says 52 “units” of solar provided 2,833 megawatts (MW) of new domestic generating capacity in March, or 99.72% of the total. Three megawatts each of new biomass and oil capacity plus 1 MW each of new hydropower and natural gas capacity made up the balance.
For Q1 2024, solar accounted for 86.79% (6,497 MW) of new generating capacity brought online while wind contributed another 12.40% (928 MW). Natural gas trailed with only 49 MW (0.65%) along with 5 MW of oil, 3 MW of biomass, 3 MW of “other,” and 1 MW of hydropower.
Solar has now been the largest source of new generating capacity from September 2023 to March 2024. Further, new solar capacity added in Q1 2024 was more than double the solar added in Q1 2023 (2,774 MW).
“FERC’s data for the first quarter seem to confirm forecasts by multiple sources that solar will dominate new capacity additions in 2024,” noted the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director Ken Bossong. “And it is not unreasonable to suggest that solar’s growth this year will exceed expectations.”
Renewables are nearly 30% of utility-scale generating capacity
The latest capacity additions have brought solar’s share of total available installed utility-scale (i.e., >1 MW) generating capacity up to 8.25%, surpassing that of hydropower (7.88%). Wind is currently at 11.77%. Solar and wind combined now account for more than a fifth (20.02%) of the US’s installed utility-scale generating capacity. With the inclusion of biomass (1.14%) and geothermal (0.33%), renewables now claim a 29.37% share of total US utility-scale generating capacity.
For perspective, a year ago, solar’s share was 6.67% while wind and hydropower were 11.51% and 7.97%, respectively. The mix of all renewables totaled 27.67%.
Installed utility-scale solar has now climbed into fourth place – behind natural gas (43.79%), coal (15.87%), and wind – for its share of generating capacity after having recently surpassed that of nuclear power (8.01%).
Solar to beat wind and coal within 3 years
FERC reports that net “high probability” additions of solar between April 2024 and March 2027 total 89,030 MW – that’s more than 3.5 times the forecast net “high probability” additions for wind (24,483 MW), the second-fastest growing resource.
FERC also foresees growth for hydropower (568 MW), geothermal (400 MW), and biomass (91 MW). The new 1,100 MW Vogtle-4 reactor in Georgia that entered commercial operation in late April will increase nuclear capacity modestly, while coal, natural gas, and oil are projected to shrink by 20,077 MW, 2,386 MW, and 2,015 MW, respectively.
If just FERC’s current “high probability” additions come to fruition, by April 1, 2027, solar will account for almost one-seventh (14.16%) of installed US utility-scale generating capacity. That would be greater than either coal (13.36%) or wind (12.77%) and nearly double that of either nuclear power (7.56%) or hydropower (7.40%).
The mix of all renewables would account for 35.73% of total available installed utility-scale generating capacity – rapidly approaching that of natural gas (40.72%) – with solar and wind constituting more than 75% of installed utility-scale renewable energy capacity. Solar capacity alone would equal the combined capacities of wind, biomass, and geothermal.
FERC’s numbers run conservative
Three years ago, in its March 2021 “Infrastructure” report, FERC projected that between April 2021 and March 2024, net “high probability” solar additions would total 41,238 MW while those for wind would reach 21,888 MW. In reality, solar additions during that three-year period totaled 49,480 MW – nearly one-fifth (19.99%) higher, while actual wind capacity additions reached 26,910 MW or nearly 23% higher than FERC’s forecast.
Moreover, FERC reports that there may actually be as much as 214,882 MW of net new solar additions in the current three-year pipeline in addition to 73,732 MW of new wind and 7,719 MW of new hydropower.
FERC only reports data for utility-scale facilities – it doesn’t include rooftop solar data, for example. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), small-scale solar is estimated to account for nearly a third of US electrical generation by solar and a larger share of total installed solar capacity.
This suggests that the total capacity of distributed (rooftop solar) and utility-scale solar combined is significantly more than the 8.25% FERC reported as solar’s share of total capacity at the end of March. It’s perhaps closer to 12% and may be on track to approach or exceed 20% within three years.
That could bring the generating capacity of all renewables close to – and possibly surpassing – natural gas within three years.
Read more: In a milestone, the US exceeds 5 million solar installations
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Tesla has reportedly received 50,000 orders for the new Model Y with an updated design in about 24 hours, according to a new report in China.
Last week, Tesla unveiled the mid-cycle refresh of the Model Y in China and a select few markets supplied by Tesla’s factory in Shanghai.
Deliveries are expected to start in March. The new Model Y hasn’t launched in Europe or North America yet, but it is expected to in the coming months.
The update has received mixed reviews as the updated design is not as well received as the Model 3’s recent design refresh and the specs and feature upgrades are basically in line with the Model 3 refresh.
But Tesla has reportedly received a significant number of orders for the updated electric vehicles.
According to several reports from Chinese bloggers claiming to have information coming from Tesla salespeople (via Car News China), the automaker secured 50,000 Model Y orders on the first day of the design refresh unveiling.
It’s hard to assess how significant this is for Tesla. The automaker delivered about 480,000 Model Ys in China in 2024 – up about 5% year-over-year.
50,000 units would represent just over a month of orders in a single day, but the design refresh was anticipated for about a year. Therefore, there was a lot of pent-up demand for it as people waited for the update to order.
It’s also worth noting that one of the sources claimed that Tesla is guiding that new orders being placed now won’t get delivered until April or May, which was used as evidence supporting the number of orders.
However, Tesla’s Chinese Model Y configurator is still mentioning March deliveries for new orders being placed now:
That’s true for both versions of the new Model Y. Tesla has yet to launch the updated performance version the new electric SUV.
Electrek’s Take
I wouldn’t be really surprised if Tesla secured 50,000 orders for the new Model Y in China, but I would still take this report with a grain of salt. Tesla salespeople have extremely limited visibility into sales beyond their own locations, and the sources appear to be coming from them and are relayed by Chinese bloggers on social media.
That, combined with the fact that the configurator still mentions March deliveries, makes me have doubts.
With that said, 50,000 orders is also not an unbelievable number.
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The rugged new electric SUV will be here before you know it. Jeep is fast-tracking Recon EV production as it prepares for an upcoming launch. Here’s what to expect from Jeep’s new electric SUV inspired by the legendary Wrangler.
Just as Jeep’s first global electric SUV, the Wagoneer S, is arriving at US dealers, the brand is already preparing to introduce another EV.
The Recon was revealed in 2022 as part of Jeep’s new strategy to become “the leading electrified SUV brand” in North America and Europe. Although Jeep launched the Avenger in Europe in early 2023, the Wagoneer S and Recon will be the brand’s first EV models to roll out globally.
The Recon will be Jeep’s first true off-road electric SUV. It’s built from the “ground up to be 100% Jeep 4×4.”Jeep said the new EV is for “those who love to explore extreme adventures in near silence.”
Jeep maker Stellantis said the Recon is “inspired by the legendary Wrangler.” Like the iconic off-roader, it will feature options like removable windows and doors.
With an expected launch just around the corner, Jeep (Stellantis) is reportedly fast-tracking Recon EV production.
When is Jeep launching the Recon EV?
According to MoparInsiders, a source at Stellantis’ assembly plant in Mexico claims production for the new Jeep Recon EV is set for February 24, 2025.
That’s well ahead of expected. After recently introducing the Wagoneer S and Dodge Charger Daytona to the market, Stellantis aims for a smooth launch with the new Jeep Recon EV.
Ahead of its official debut, prototypes of the rugged electric SUV have been spotted in public testing several times. A Recon EV was caught in Michigan with almost no camouflage by the folks at JeepReconForum last month. Inside, a display screen showed a range of 147 miles at 66% charge.
Although that suggests a range of around 223 miles, the production model is expected to be closer to 300 miles. Like the Wagoneer S, which features over 300 miles of driving range, the Recon EV will also be based on Stellantis’ STLA Large platform.
Jeep’s off-road electric SUV will be equipped with its signature Selec-Terrain system, which includes Rock, Mud, and other modes. It will also include standard four-wheel drive for added off-road capabilities. The Recon is expected to pack between 450 to 600 hp with dual EDMs.
According to the report, the Jeep Recon EV will launch in three trims: Willys, Overland, and an even more rugged Moab model.
We caught a glimpse of the Moab trim in 2023 after images leaked out of a dealer event. Over the past few months, the Recon EV has been spotted in public with less and less camouflage.
As it gets closer to production, Jeep’s upcoming electric SUV looks more like a Ford Bronco with a rugged exterior design.
Prices and official specs will be revealed closer to launch, but the Jeep Recon EV is expected to start at around $60,000. More expensive trims, like the Moab, could cost about $80,000. Stellantis will launch the Recon this year in the US and other global markets like Europe, The Middle East, and Asia.
What do you think of Jeep’s Wrangler-inspired Recon? Would you buy one for around $60,000? Drop us a comment below and let us know.
Source: MoparInsiders
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The world’s largest EV maker is making a big statement overseas. In a historic win, BYD officially outsold Toyota in EV sales on its own home turf for the first time last year.
BYD EV sales in Japan topped Toyota in 2024
After squeezing legacy automakers out of China with its low-cost electric cars, BYD is making a strong push into overseas markets.
BYD introduced its first electric vehicle (EV) in Japan in early 2023, the Atto 3. Starting at around $30,000, this SUV competes with popular domestic cars like the Toyota RAV4 and Honda CR-V. It also rivals other EVs on the market, like the Toyota bZ4X and Nissan Ariya.
In its first full sales year, BYD has already outsold Toyota in EV sales in Japan. This accomplishment is even more impressive since Toyota has historically dominated sales in its home market.
According to the Japan Automobile Dealer Association (via CarNewsChina), BYD sold 2,223 EVs in 2024. In comparison, Toyota sold just 2,038 electric cars in its home market last year.
BYD’s EV sales were up 54% compared to 2023, while Toyota’s slipped 30% year over year (YOY). Since launching in 2023, BYD has introduced several top-selling models, including the Dolphin hatchback and Seal sedan.
Starting at just 2.99 million yen ($19,000), the Dolphin competes with top-selling domestic cars like the Toyota Prius and Nissan LEAF.
After launching the Seal last June, widely viewed as its answer to the Tesla Model 3, BYD’s electric sedan was already the top-selling imported EV in Japan by August. BYD’s Seal starts at 5.28 million yen, or around $33,500.
BYD is turning up the pressure in 2025 with plans to launch the Sealion 07 in Japan, its new smart mid-size electric SUV.
Japan’s total EV sales fell 33% to just below 60,000 in 2024, its first YOY decline in four years. Nissan led the market with a roughly 50% share despite LEAF sales slipping nearly 50% (30,749) from 2023. Although Toyota bZ4X sales were up 10%, only 1,012 models were sold in 2024. Toyota’s electric SUV starts at 5.5 million yen ($35,000).
Electrek’s Take
After losing significant market share in China, a critical market for Japanese automakers, BYD is now taking their home market by storm.
Although it’s still a small number, BYD’s growing presence in Japan is impressive. Japan has been a challenging market for foreign brands to compete in. Outside of luxury automakers like Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, and BWM, domestic brands have historically dominated auto sales in Japan.
Toyota accounted for over a third of the market alone last year. After topping Nissan and Honda for the first time in global vehicle sales last year, BYD is laying the groundwork for more growth in 2025.
The Chinese EV leader is expanding with new models launching in Europe, Southeast Asia, Central and South America, and more. Will BYD eventually top Toyota in global sales? As the industry shifts to EVs, BYD is quickly gaining momentum while Toyota lags in key markets.
Source: CarNewsChina, JAMA
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