Singapore Airlines: Is flight turbulence getting worse – and what types are there?
Severe turbulence struck a Singapore Airlines flight from London Heathrow earlier today, with one man killed and many others “launched into the ceiling”.
Authorities believe a 73-year-old British man, who had a heart condition, likely died from cardiac arrest, with at least 30 others injured as a result of the turbulence.
Deaths from turbulence are extremely rare, and the US’ Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said 146 passengers and crew have been seriously injured by turbulence between 2009 and 2021.
Read more:
Images show damage in plane after one killed in turbulence
But what could have caused the incident, what types of turbulence exist, and are the events getting worse? Here’s what experts have said so far:
Pic: Reuters
What does the flight data show?
Flight data shows a spike in altitude of around 275ft (84m) at 2.49pm local time. Shortly after, the plane returned to a cruising altitude of around 37,000ft (11,277m).
According to Flightradar24, “the flight encountered a rapid change in vertical rate, consistent with a sudden turbulence event”.
At 3.03pm local time, the flight changed course and began its diversion to Bangkok.
Around 20 minutes later, at about 3.25pm, the flight declared an emergency – a Squawk 7700 – before landing in Bangkok at 3.45pm.
Source: Flightradar24. All times are local
What could have caused the turbulence?
Tim Atkinson, an aviation consultant and pilot, told the Sky News Daily podcast he believes “it’s fairly clear” the Singapore Airlines flight “encountered atmospheric turbulence”.
He noted that the area – called the Intertropical Convergence Zone – where the Boeing 777 plunged 6,000 feet is “renowned among pilots, and I dare say passengers, for turbulence”.
“Despite abundant caution occasionally, there’s turbulence ahead which can’t be identified, and the unfortunate result of an encounter is injury and, very rarely, fatality,” he said.
Mr Atkinson also noted that the larger the aircraft, “the worse the atmospheric perturbation, the disruption in the smoothness of the atmosphere, needs to be to cause major problems”.
He then said the 777 is “one of the largest and, I daresay, most solid airframes widely flying around the world”.
Pic: Reuters
What types of turbulence are there?
Sky News’ weather producer Jo Robinson notes there are a few forms of turbulence – where there’s a sudden change in airflow and wind speed.
Turbulence can often be associated with storm clouds, which are usually well forecast and monitored, allowing planes to fly around them.
Clear-air turbulence (CAT) is much more dangerous as there are no visual signs, such as clouds.
This invisible vertical air movement usually occurs at and above 15,000ft and is mostly linked to the jet stream.
There are clues on where CAT may occur, but generally it can’t be detected ahead of time, which means flight crews can be caught unaware with no time to warn passengers and put seat belt signs on.
It is unclear what type of turbulence the Singapore Airlines flight went through.
How common is an incident like this?
Chris McGee, a commercial pilot for more than 20 years, said in her experience the plane did encounter CAT which is “almost impossible to predict” and comes “out of the blue”.
Ms McGee said turbulence is not in fact that rare, but to experience it to this degree is “phenomenally rare”.
“In my career I’ve experienced one incident of severe turbulence,” she said, adding that she has heard of maybe “two, possibly three incidents of something that extreme” from fellow pilots.
The reported 6,000-ft drop in under five minutes is quite normal in a controlled descent instigated by the pilot, she said.
However, what they experienced was not a nice smooth, controlled descent, but an “absolute maelstrom of the aeroplane flinging itself around all over the sky”.
“It’s awful what happened to those on board, one death is tragic, other people were injured, but something like that is incredibly rare,” she said.
“We do train in the simulator every six months at least where we practicse things we can’t practise in the real aeroplane. Things like emergency procedures, abnormalities and unusual weather conditions like this, for example.
“We are taught how to fly the aeroplane through these extreme events and how to recover them should the plane depart from its normal flight mode.”
Her best advice for any passengers concerned about their safety on the flight is to follow what the cabin crew “strongly suggest and keep their seatbelts loosely tied at all times. On the flight deck that’s what we do. It will protect you”.
Pic: Reuters
Is turbulence getting worse?
It’s been understood for some time that climate change is increasing turbulence during flights, and the trend is set to worsen according to reports.
In June last year, a study from Reading University found that in a typical spot in the North Atlantic – one of the world’s busiest routes – the total annual duration of severe turbulence increased by 55% from 17.7 hours in 1979 to 27.4 hours in 2020.
Moderate turbulence was also found to have increased by 37% from 70.0 to 96.1 hours, and light turbulence increased by 17% from 466.5 to 546.8 hours.
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Professor Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist who co-authored the study, said at the time: “My message from this is we need to do something otherwise flights will become more turbulent in future [as global heating increases further].”
Professor Paul Roundy, from the University of Albany, said on X on Tuesday that the 55% increase in “a very infrequent signal gives a real, but small, change in absolute risk”.
He noted that “it’s not something a randomly selected passenger should worry about,” before adding: “Airline travel of the future won’t be fraught with wings ripped off planes, or have thousands of dead or injured passengers.
“It will mostly look like it does today.”
World
Fire rips through arms depot deep inside Russia after huge Ukrainian drone attack – as Zelenskyy prepares to meet Trump
A fire has ripped through a Russian missile depot in the Tver region deep inside the country after it was targeted in a Ukrainian drone attack, the defence ministry in Moscow has said.
Footage shows a second Ukrainian drone attack on the southwestern Russian region of Krasnodar also triggered a fire and caused a series of explosions.
Russia’s defence ministry has claimed its forces shot down 101 Ukrainian drones over Russian territory and occupied Crimea during the overnight attacks.
The drone strikes were carried out as Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskky said he is hoping to meet Donald Trump next week when he travels to the US – where he will present US President Joe Biden with a “victory plan” in relation to the war.
An explosion after the drone strike on the arms depot in Krasnodar
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s foreign minister said Russia appears to be planning strikes on Ukrainian nuclear facilities before the winter.
Posts on local Telegram channels said a Ukrainian drone attack struck an arms depot near the town of Toropets, in Russia’s Tver region – which is about 380 kilometres (240 miles) northwest of Moscow and about 500 kilometres (300 miles) from the Ukrainian border on Saturday.
Russian authorities closed a 100-kilometre (62-mile) stretch of a highway and evacuated passengers from a nearby rail station.
The depot appeared to be just miles from a Russian weapons arsenal storing missiles, bombs and ammunition in Tver that was struck by Ukrainian drones early Wednesday, injuring 13 people and also causing a huge fire.
Flames rise after the strike on the Tver region on Wednesday. Pic: Reuters
Meanwhile, at least 1,200 people were evacuated from Russia’s southwestern Krasnodar region after an ammunition depot and missile arsenal were struck in the second drone attack overnight, the local governor has said.
Most of those evacuated were staying with friends and relatives, Veniamin Kondratyev, the governor of Krasnodar region, said on the Telegram messaging app.
There were no immediate reports of casualties in either Tver or Krasnodar.
Ukraine warning of attacks on nuclear sites
It comes as Kyiv is urging the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Ukraine’s allies to establish permanent monitoring missions at the country’s nuclear plants as it warns they could be targeted in Russian attacks.
“In particular, it concerns open distribution devices at (nuclear power plants and) transmission substations, critical for the safe operation of nuclear energy,” foreign minister Andriy Sybiha wrote on X.
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A mushroom cloud rises after the drone strike on Toropets in the Tver region. Pic: Reuters
Zelenskyy prepares for US trip
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian leader has said he plans to meet Republican presidential candidate Mr Trump on either Thursday or Friday next week.
During the trip, Mr Zelenskyy will present Mr Biden with a so-called victory plan as he hopes to bring about an end to the conflict.
Volodymr Zelenskyy with Donald Trump in 2020. Pic: Reuters
The Ukrainian president has said the plan will include long-range striking capabilities and other weapons long sought by Kyiv, and will serve as the basis for any future negotiation with Russia.
He is also expected to push Washington to lift restrictions on long-range missile strikes inside Russia.
Mr Zelenskyy will attend sessions of the UN Security Council and General Assembly and also plans to meet vice president Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate in this year’s US election, in separate meetings on 26 September.
The developments come as three sources have told Reuters that Iran did not include mobile launchers with the close-range ballistic missiles that Washington has accused Tehran of delivering to Russia for use against Ukraine.
The sources – a European diplomat, a European intelligence official and a US official – said it was not clear why Iran did not supply launchers with the Fath-360 missiles, raising questions about when and if the weapons will be operational.
At least 44 people have been killed in Israeli strikes on Lebanon and Gaza in the last 24 hours.
A strike on the Lebanese capital Beirut killed at least 31 people including three children and seven women, the country’s health minister Firas Abiad said.
Fifteen of the 68 wounded in the attack remain in hospital.
Ali Harake, the head of the rescue team searching through the rubble, told Sky News his team is still looking for between 17 and 18 missing people – though he fears none have survived.
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‘I think the missing people are dead’
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It is understood two apartment blocks in a densely populated southern neighbourhood collapsed in the strike – the deadliest attack on Beirut in decades.
Top Hezbollah commanders are believed to have been meeting in the basement of one of the buildings.
Hezbollah has confirmed two of its senior commanders, Ibrahim Aqil and Ahmed Wahbi, died in the strike while an Israeli military spokesperson said that at least 16 Hezbollah militants were killed.
Wahbi oversaw the military operations of the Radwan special forces – a commando unit that seeks to infiltrate and carry out attacks in Israel – until early 2024. Aqil was also a top commander for the Iran-backed group.
The Palestinian militant group Hamas has described the killing of Aqil as a “crime” and a “folly”, adding Israel will “pay the price”.
Read more: Israeli airstrike on Beirut causes more shock to a country already rocked to its core
Meanwhile, at least 13 people have been killed in Israeli strikes on Gaza City, according to a local report.
The strikes are believed to have hit several schools sheltering displaced people in the southern part of the city.
Inside a school, that was sheltering displaced people, after it was hit by an Israeli strike this morning. Pic: Reuters
The street outside the school. Pic: Reuters
The strikes come after Hezbollah launched one of its most intense bombardments of northern Israel in nearly a year of fighting, largely targeting Israeli military sites.
Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence system intercepted most of the Katyusha rockets.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
Hezbollah said its latest wave of rocket attacks was a response to past Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon.
It came days after mass explosions of Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies killed at least 37 people, including two children. Some 2,900 others were wounded in the assault which has been widely attributed to Israel.
The Israeli airstrike in the southern suburbs of Beirut came as the Lebanese caretaker government was having an emergency meeting to discuss the previous two days of pager and radio explosions.
It caused yet more shock in a nation which considers itself battle-hardened after years of strife, disaster and wars.
But Lebanon has been truly rocked to its core by the string of attacks over the past few days.
“These are war crimes,” one Lebanese minister told us.
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Watch Yalda Hakim’s interview with Lebanon’s energy minister
The Israeli military said it had targeted and killed a senior Hezbollah military commander. They named him as Ibrahim Aqil – a man with a $7m US bounty on his head.
He’s been on the US most wanted list for more than forty years after being accused of being involved in the bombing of the US embassy and US marine barracks in 1983 which killed hundreds.
But the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahieh is a heavily populated crowded residential area and packed with shops, markets, and high-rise apartments.
The strike appeared to have flattened an entire block, flipping cars and leaving other vehicles covered in a heavy blanket of thick dust and rubble.
Damage caused by an Israeli air attack on a southern suburb of Beirut. Pic: AP
Several people could be seen in video footage filmed by neighbours, trapped under piles of rubble.
The Lebanese health authority keeps on updating the number of people killed in the strike, with the latest figures reaching 14.
There are more than 60 injured, with some of those believed to be in critical condition. Children are said to be among the dead, missing and injured.
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Aftermath of IDF strike on Lebanon
‘Our actions speak for themselves’
The Israeli military immediately claimed success – saying that, along with Aqil, the strike had wiped out about 10 of his elite Radwan Force.
According to an IDF spokesman, who did not provide any evidence, Aqil’s team had been planning an attack into northern Israel similar to the Hamas attack on 7 October.
The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a very short statement on X, saying: “Our goals are clear and our actions speak for themselves.”
Both the prime minister and defence minister have vowed to restore security to the north of Israel so the 60,000 residents who have fled the cross-border attacks can return to their homes.
An estimated 120,000 Lebanese have also been forced out of their homes along the border.
The airstrike in the capital is the second in Beirut in two months – both, according to the IDF, targeted at senior Hezbollah commanders.
According to sources being quoted in Lebanese media, the Hezbollah group of senior leaders was meeting in an underground basement of a large housing block when the missile penetrated.
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‘Things are escalating by the minute’
It is unlikely to be seen as a justifiable precision attack – or a “targeted strike”, as described by the Israeli military – if the Lebanese government ministers’ reactions are anything to go by.
We spoke to several as they arrived for their emergency cabinet meeting in the hour before the attack.
They were already incensed by the back-to-back coordinated booby trap explosions of communication devices across the country. Israel has yet to confirm or deny its involvement in the blasts.
Speaking about the pager and radio explosions across Lebanon earlier this week, the country’s environment minister and head of its disaster management committee Nasser Yassin said: “It’s genocidal, it’s indiscriminate and a violation of international humanitarian law and every other law.
“We have an insane leadership on the southern end of our borders who don’t want to be indicted by the International Court of Justice.”
The head of the country’s disaster management committee, Nasser Yassin
The information minister Ziad Makary called the explosions of communication devices “a new crime… it’s a war crime and not something that would pass easily trying to kill three thousand or four thousand civilians as we see them”.
The information minister Ziad Makary
And Amin Salam, the economy minister, warned: “Things are escalating by the minute.
“There’s more tension, more provocation. We have been doing our best to get to a peaceful solution but the escalation is unprecedented.
“It’s an act of terror, regardless of who was targeted.”
Most intense border fighting in nearly a year
The airstrike in Beirut came after a marked increase in cross-border exchanges – the most intense in nearly a year.
The Israeli military said Hezbollah had spent the early part of the day firing nearly 200 rockets across the border into Israel.
Many of them were intercepted by the Iron Dome defence system.
This followed the Israeli bombing of more than 50 targets in the south of Lebanon overnight – which the IDF said hit launchers and weapons stores.
The Israeli military is suffering losses too – there were two funerals today for Israeli soldiers killed on their northern border – but it’s Hezbollah which seems to be paying a far heavier price right now.
Read more from Sky News:
Iran mulls next move as fears of war grow
Israel’s history of secret operations
Hezbollah unilaterally entered this latest war on 8 October, much to the frustration of Lebanon’s caretaker government, and a day after the Hamas attack on southern Israel.
Hezbollah have repeatedly said their actions are in support of Gaza and have continued to insist they will only stop once there’s a ceasefire.
But right now, the fighting group allied to Iran – and designated a terror group by the US and UK – appears to be very much on the backfoot after three attacks in four days.
Meanwhile, Israel is ploughing on despite the cries of indignation and condemnation from the international community.
Additional reporting from Beirut with camera Jake Britton, specialist producer Chris Cunningham and Lebanon producers Jihad Jineid and Sami Zein.
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