Singapore Airlines: Is flight turbulence getting worse – and what types are there?
Severe turbulence struck a Singapore Airlines flight from London Heathrow earlier today, with one man killed and many others “launched into the ceiling”.
Authorities believe a 73-year-old British man, who had a heart condition, likely died from cardiac arrest, with at least 30 others injured as a result of the turbulence.
Deaths from turbulence are extremely rare, and the US’ Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said 146 passengers and crew have been seriously injured by turbulence between 2009 and 2021.
Read more:
Images show damage in plane after one killed in turbulence
But what could have caused the incident, what types of turbulence exist, and are the events getting worse? Here’s what experts have said so far:
Pic: Reuters
What does the flight data show?
Flight data shows a spike in altitude of around 275ft (84m) at 2.49pm local time. Shortly after, the plane returned to a cruising altitude of around 37,000ft (11,277m).
According to Flightradar24, “the flight encountered a rapid change in vertical rate, consistent with a sudden turbulence event”.
At 3.03pm local time, the flight changed course and began its diversion to Bangkok.
Around 20 minutes later, at about 3.25pm, the flight declared an emergency – a Squawk 7700 – before landing in Bangkok at 3.45pm.
Source: Flightradar24. All times are local
What could have caused the turbulence?
Tim Atkinson, an aviation consultant and pilot, told the Sky News Daily podcast he believes “it’s fairly clear” the Singapore Airlines flight “encountered atmospheric turbulence”.
He noted that the area – called the Intertropical Convergence Zone – where the Boeing 777 plunged 6,000 feet is “renowned among pilots, and I dare say passengers, for turbulence”.
“Despite abundant caution occasionally, there’s turbulence ahead which can’t be identified, and the unfortunate result of an encounter is injury and, very rarely, fatality,” he said.
Mr Atkinson also noted that the larger the aircraft, “the worse the atmospheric perturbation, the disruption in the smoothness of the atmosphere, needs to be to cause major problems”.
He then said the 777 is “one of the largest and, I daresay, most solid airframes widely flying around the world”.
Pic: Reuters
What types of turbulence are there?
Sky News’ weather producer Jo Robinson notes there are a few forms of turbulence – where there’s a sudden change in airflow and wind speed.
Turbulence can often be associated with storm clouds, which are usually well forecast and monitored, allowing planes to fly around them.
Clear-air turbulence (CAT) is much more dangerous as there are no visual signs, such as clouds.
This invisible vertical air movement usually occurs at and above 15,000ft and is mostly linked to the jet stream.
There are clues on where CAT may occur, but generally it can’t be detected ahead of time, which means flight crews can be caught unaware with no time to warn passengers and put seat belt signs on.
It is unclear what type of turbulence the Singapore Airlines flight went through.
How common is an incident like this?
Chris McGee, a commercial pilot for more than 20 years, said in her experience the plane did encounter CAT which is “almost impossible to predict” and comes “out of the blue”.
Ms McGee said turbulence is not in fact that rare, but to experience it to this degree is “phenomenally rare”.
“In my career I’ve experienced one incident of severe turbulence,” she said, adding that she has heard of maybe “two, possibly three incidents of something that extreme” from fellow pilots.
The reported 6,000-ft drop in under five minutes is quite normal in a controlled descent instigated by the pilot, she said.
However, what they experienced was not a nice smooth, controlled descent, but an “absolute maelstrom of the aeroplane flinging itself around all over the sky”.
“It’s awful what happened to those on board, one death is tragic, other people were injured, but something like that is incredibly rare,” she said.
“We do train in the simulator every six months at least where we practicse things we can’t practise in the real aeroplane. Things like emergency procedures, abnormalities and unusual weather conditions like this, for example.
“We are taught how to fly the aeroplane through these extreme events and how to recover them should the plane depart from its normal flight mode.”
Her best advice for any passengers concerned about their safety on the flight is to follow what the cabin crew “strongly suggest and keep their seatbelts loosely tied at all times. On the flight deck that’s what we do. It will protect you”.
Pic: Reuters
Is turbulence getting worse?
It’s been understood for some time that climate change is increasing turbulence during flights, and the trend is set to worsen according to reports.
In June last year, a study from Reading University found that in a typical spot in the North Atlantic – one of the world’s busiest routes – the total annual duration of severe turbulence increased by 55% from 17.7 hours in 1979 to 27.4 hours in 2020.
Moderate turbulence was also found to have increased by 37% from 70.0 to 96.1 hours, and light turbulence increased by 17% from 466.5 to 546.8 hours.
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Professor Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist who co-authored the study, said at the time: “My message from this is we need to do something otherwise flights will become more turbulent in future [as global heating increases further].”
Professor Paul Roundy, from the University of Albany, said on X on Tuesday that the 55% increase in “a very infrequent signal gives a real, but small, change in absolute risk”.
He noted that “it’s not something a randomly selected passenger should worry about,” before adding: “Airline travel of the future won’t be fraught with wings ripped off planes, or have thousands of dead or injured passengers.
“It will mostly look like it does today.”
World
Terror group supporters posted on TikTok, YouTube and Google from site targeted in Indian airstrikes
Social media accounts expressing support for a Pakistan-based terror group linked to al Qaeda appear to have posted recent videos from a Pakistan mosque targeted by Indian airstrikes.
Sky News has found videos posted on TikTok, YouTube and Google that appear to be filmed at the Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke. The captions and usernames contain expressions of support for the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and a group called ‘313’.
Sky News has found and geolocated multiple videos that appear to be filmed in the area where the captions include either or both ‘313’ and LeT.
Some of the videos show men in the streets with guns. Another post captioned a video of children doing martial arts training inside the targeted mosque, “we are little soldiers, and we fight the non-believers”.
The caption of the video reads ‘we are little soldiers, and we fight the non-believers’. It uses the hashtag ‘313’.
The caption uses the hashtag #جہاد313, which translates to ‘313’ jihad.
‘313’ appears to refer to the 313 Brigade, a proscribed terror organisation in Pakistan.
In a TikTok video posted to the Google page for Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke, a man can be seen walking along the street with a gun.
The account that posted that video wrote in their description, “Lashkar Taiba, Mujahid Force, ‘313’ and Markaz Taiba Muridke”, self-proclaiming their support for the groups.
This screenshot from the Google user labels Lashkar-e-Taiba and ‘313’ and includes the location name Muridke
India’s retaliatory strikes on Pakistani-adminstered Kashmir and Pakistan on 7 May came after a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir last month.
Gunmen opened fire on tourists, killing 26 people and injuring dozens in a popular holiday spot near Pahalgam, Kashmir, on 22 April.
LeT were accused by India of involvement in the Pahalgam attack through their proxy the Resistance Front, which claimed responsibility for the attack.
LeT, which is designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN Security Council and the UK, focuses on fighting Indian control in Kashmir and is based in the Punjab region of Pakistan.
Pakistan denies allegations of terror camps operating in the country. This region has been in the control of the Punjabi government since 2010. The Punjab government condemned the Indian strikes, and declared a state of emergency across Punjab.
Muskan Sangwan, senior intelligence analyst at TRAC, a terrorism research and analysis consortium, told Sky News: “Brigade 313 is al Qaeda in Pakistan. It’s an umbrella organisation for members of several groups like Taliban, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Haqqat ul-Jihad-al-Islami, Jaish-e Muhammad, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Jundullah.”
Ms Sangwan explained that ‘313’ refers to the number of companions said to have fought with the Prophet Mohammed in the Battle of Badr.
TRAC have seen a recent uptick in TikTok videos and other social media posts that refer to ‘313’.
Many of the accounts are linked to each other.
Ms Sangwan said: “They [the TikTok users] mostly use ‘313’ as a hashtag… trying to push that hashtag to as many people it can reach on social media.”
Sky News sought to verify the location by comparing before and after videos from the strike location, and using the video released by the Indian army conducting the strike.
One video showing damage at the strike location was posted by a user with 313 in their TikTok username.
The TikTok account that posted video footage of the destruction in Muridke has 313 in the username
Below is satellite imagery that shows the destruction of the site.
Satellite imagery shows Markaz Taiba Mosque after the strike on 7 May. Credit: Maxar
In one TikTok, the video is captioned “bring your arms and ammunition and go to war”. The text on the screen of the TikTok is ‘313’ and he is carrying a gun.
The group are comfortable with having an online presence. On the Google tag for Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke, men pose for a group photo. Almost all the people in the photo have used ‘313’ on TikTok.
Ms Sangwan explained: “With these people from Muridke, pushing this propaganda on social media would generate a lot of significance in terms of recruitment and in terms of gaining support from local people and from other people.”
Sky News’ Asia correspondent Cordelia Lynch has reported on the ground in Muridke.
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Anger in Pakistan after India strikes
India says it struck Markaz Taiba, a site in Muridke about 15 miles (25km) from the border, which has long been claimed to be a terrorist training site associated with LeT.
MEMRI, a US-based research group that monitors terrorist threats, told Sky News: “It has been known for decades that Lashkar-e-Taiba has its headquarters in Muridke.”
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Sky News contacted the Pakistan Ministry of Defence for comment. Khawaja Asif, Pakistan’s defence minister, told Sky News: “This appears to be a random video with background music added later – consistent with how TikTok trends often function. If this is to be considered credible evidence, we could produce millions of similar clips ourselves.”
Mr Asif also said that any suggestion that the mosque was used as a base by terrorists was a “completely false, social media made up hoax”.
On 7 May, after the strikes in Pakistan, the Indian subcontinent branch of al Qaeda issued a statement condemning India’s actions and encouraging its supporters to wage jihad against India.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said his country is “ready to meet” Russian representatives after Vladimir Putin suggested peace talks in Istanbul from Thursday.
Russia‘s president put forward the proposal as European leaders including Sir Keir Starmer threatened him with fresh sanctions if Russia failed to comply with an unconditional 30-day ceasefire starting on Monday.
Reacting to Mr Putin’s suggestion, US President Donald Trump said it was “a potentially great day for Russia and Ukraine” and he would “work with both sides to make sure it happens”.
Mr Zelenskyy has also welcomed the proposal, but reiterated his call for a ceasefire.
He said: “It is a positive sign that the Russians have finally begun to consider ending the war. The entire world has been waiting for this for a very long time. And the very first step in truly ending any war is a ceasefire.
“There is no point in continuing the killing even for a single day. We expect Russia to confirm a ceasefire – full, lasting, and reliable – starting tomorrow, May 12th, and Ukraine is ready to meet.”
On Saturday, the prime minister met the Ukrainian president alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, recently elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Kyiv.
Announcing the 30-day ceasefire proposal, the leaders said they had secured the backing of Mr Trump after briefing him on the progress made on the so-called “coalition of the willing” plans in a 20-minute phone call.
What Trump does next is crucial
Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing for time and may have been caught on the hop by European leaders, backed by US President Donald Trump, demanding a 30-day ceasefire during their visit to Kyiv yesterday.
Russia’s proposal of talks in Istanbul on Thursday appears hurriedly conceived, announced as it was in the early hours of the morning by Putin.
There is an added symbolism to his suggestion of Istanbul as a venue. Russia has long blamed Ukraine for walking away from peace talks in the same city in 2022.
The key thing is that diplomatic movement of sorts is happening.
Ukraine and its European colleagues want to capitalise on Trump’s renewed enthusiasm for a ceasefire and his potential scepticism of how ready Putin actually is to make peace.
The Europeans will hope this isn’t drawn into a protracted period of negotiations, or simply talking about the idea of negotiations.
What President Trump does next will be crucial.
Speaking at the Kremlin in the early hours of Sunday, Mr Putin did not directly address the proposal but instead offered to restart peace talks Russia and Ukraine held in 2022.
“We propose the Kyiv authorities resume the negotiations they interrupted at the end of 2022… to resume direct negotiations… without any preconditions… to begin without delay next Thursday 15 May in Istanbul,” he said.
Speaking to Sky News Russia correspondent Ivor Bennett after the statement, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Moscow does not “share the view of Starmer”.
“We think that the seriousness is to propose negotiations,” he said, denying the move was a delaying tactic.
Mr Peskov said there had to be negotiations to find a way for a ceasefire, adding: “A simplistic approach to a ceasefire is inappropriate.”
European leaders including Volodymyr Zelenskyy hold call with Donald Trump. Pic: Number 10
Russia’s own unilateral three-day ceasefire, declared for the 80th anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany, expired on Saturday, and Ukraine said Russian forces have repeatedly violated it.
After the summit in Kyiv, Sir Keir said: “All of us here, together with the US, are calling Putin out.
“So we are clear, all five leaders here – all the leaders of the meeting we just had with the coalition of the willing – an unconditional ceasefire, rejecting Putin’s conditions, and clear that if he turns his back on peace, we will respond.
“Working with President Trump, with all our partners, we will ramp up sanctions and increase our military aid for Ukraine’s defence to pressure Russia back to the table.”
👉Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim on your podcast app👈
During Mr Putin’s statement on Sunday, he insisted he would support peace talks, adding: “We are committed to serious negotiations with Ukraine.”
He told reporters: “Their purpose is to eliminate the root causes of the conflict, to establish a long-term, lasting peace.
“We do not rule out that during these negotiations it will be possible to agree on some new truces, a new ceasefire.”
Read more:
Will Trump force Putin to comply with ceasefire?
Russia’s VE Day parade felt like celebration of war
Michael Clarke Q&A on Ukraine war
Ukraine and Russia argue over ceasefire breaches
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Responding to Mr Putin’s proposal, Mr Macron said the Russian leader was “looking for a way forward, but he still has a desire to buy time”.
Mr Putin’s proposed negotiations are “a first step, but they are not sufficient,” he told French broadcaster BFM.
“An unconditional ceasefire is not preceded by negotiations, by definition.”
World
Terror group supporters posted on TikTok, YouTube and Google from site targeted in Indian airstrikes
Social media accounts expressing support for a Pakistan-based terror group linked to al Qaeda appear to have posted recent videos from a Pakistan mosque targeted by Indian airstrikes.
Sky News has found videos posted on TikTok, YouTube and Google that appear to be filmed at the Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke. The captions and usernames contain expressions of support for the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and a group called ‘313’.
Sky News has found and geolocated multiple videos that appear to be filmed in the area where the captions include either or both ‘313’ and LeT.
Some of the videos show men in the streets with guns. Another post captioned a video of children doing martial arts training inside the targeted mosque, “we are little soldiers, and we fight the non-believers”.
The caption of the video reads ‘we are little soldiers, and we fight the non-believers’. It uses the hashtag ‘313’.
The caption uses the hashtag #جہاد313, which translates to ‘313’ jihad.
‘313’ appears to refer to the 313 Brigade, a proscribed terror organisation in Pakistan.
In a TikTok video posted to the Google page for Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke, a man can be seen walking along the street with a gun.
The account that posted that video wrote in their description, “Lashkar Taiba, Mujahid Force, ‘313’ and Markaz Taiba Muridke”, self-proclaiming their support for the groups.
This screenshot from the Google user labels Lashkar-e-Taiba and ‘313’ and includes the location name Muridke
India’s retaliatory strikes on Pakistani-adminstered Kashmir and Pakistan on 7 May came after a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir last month.
Gunmen opened fire on tourists, killing 26 people and injuring dozens in a popular holiday spot near Pahalgam, Kashmir, on 22 April.
LeT were accused by India of involvement in the Pahalgam attack through their proxy the Resistance Front, which claimed responsibility for the attack.
LeT, which is designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN Security Council and the UK, focuses on fighting Indian control in Kashmir and is based in the Punjab region of Pakistan.
Pakistan denies allegations of terror camps operating in the country. This region has been in the control of the Punjabi government since 2010. The Punjab government condemned the Indian strikes, and declared a state of emergency across Punjab.
Muskan Sangwan, senior intelligence analyst at TRAC, a terrorism research and analysis consortium, told Sky News: “Brigade 313 is al Qaeda in Pakistan. It’s an umbrella organisation for members of several groups like Taliban, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Haqqat ul-Jihad-al-Islami, Jaish-e Muhammad, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Jundullah.”
Ms Sangwan explained that ‘313’ refers to the number of companions said to have fought with the Prophet Mohammed in the Battle of Badr.
TRAC have seen a recent uptick in TikTok videos and other social media posts that refer to ‘313’.
Many of the accounts are linked to each other.
Ms Sangwan said: “They [the TikTok users] mostly use ‘313’ as a hashtag… trying to push that hashtag to as many people it can reach on social media.”
Sky News sought to verify the location by comparing before and after videos from the strike location, and using the video released by the Indian army conducting the strike.
One video showing damage at the strike location was posted by a user with 313 in their TikTok username.
The TikTok account that posted video footage of the destruction in Muridke has 313 in the username
Below is satellite imagery that shows the destruction of the site.
Satellite imagery shows Markaz Taiba Mosque after the strike on 7 May. Credit: Maxar
In one TikTok, the video is captioned “bring your arms and ammunition and go to war”. The text on the screen of the TikTok is ‘313’ and he is carrying a gun.
The group are comfortable with having an online presence. On the Google tag for Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke, men pose for a group photo. Almost all the people in the photo have used ‘313’ on TikTok.
Ms Sangwan explained: “With these people from Muridke, pushing this propaganda on social media would generate a lot of significance in terms of recruitment and in terms of gaining support from local people and from other people.”
Sky News’ Asia correspondent Cordelia Lynch has reported on the ground in Muridke.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Anger in Pakistan after India strikes
India says it struck Markaz Taiba, a site in Muridke about 15 miles (25km) from the border, which has long been claimed to be a terrorist training site associated with LeT.
MEMRI, a US-based research group that monitors terrorist threats, told Sky News: “It has been known for decades that Lashkar-e-Taiba has its headquarters in Muridke.”
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Sky News contacted the Pakistan Ministry of Defence for comment. Khawaja Asif, Pakistan’s defence minister, told Sky News: “This appears to be a random video with background music added later – consistent with how TikTok trends often function. If this is to be considered credible evidence, we could produce millions of similar clips ourselves.”
Mr Asif also said that any suggestion that the mosque was used as a base by terrorists was a “completely false, social media made up hoax”.
On 7 May, after the strikes in Pakistan, the Indian subcontinent branch of al Qaeda issued a statement condemning India’s actions and encouraging its supporters to wage jihad against India.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
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