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The live poll tracker from Sky News collates the results of opinion surveys carried out by all the main polling organisations – and allows you to see how the political parties are performing in the run-up to a general election.

If you can’t see the latest polls, tap here for the full version of this story

By charting changing voting intentions from January 2020 to now, the tracker allows you to monitor the evolving picture as we head towards the next general election.

Below you can learn more about the methodology, and how to read the data.

The tool you need as the election looms



Sam Coates

Deputy political editor

@SamCoatesSky

Bookmark this page, remember this tool. Sky News has launched its own, authoritative version of one of the most important indicators available ahead of a general election next year.

Almost every day between now and the election, there will be new opinion polls by a clutch of different pollsters – each using different methodologies and all asking who voters will support on polling day.

Which pollster will be closest, which method is the right one, who should you look at? Those questions will always be unanswerable until the morning after election day, with the past only a broad guide to the future.

There is a tendency for political professionals to seize on every one of the polls, magnify every percentage point of movement, and draw dramatic headline conclusions. No doubt I will at times be guilty of this, but it will also put you at risk of over interpreting a single outlier poll.

Every poll has a margin of error of two or three percentage points either side. This isn’t just ignorable small print, it’s a big challenge for all of us – and a warning for all of us not to impatiently rewrite political narratives based on a single number change.

So the best way to use opinion polling reliably requires patience – and a lot more data. That is where this tool comes in.

How does one pollster, with its (usually) consistent methodology, move over weeks and months? Is there a discernible pattern from several different pollsters over a matter of days? Those of us with our noses pressed firmly up against the glass don’t want to wait for this.

This sort of analysis is only available through a “poll of polls”, which takes data from every single pollster that is asking voting intention questions and signed up to the industry standards body, the British Polling Council.

It is drawn up by Sky election analyst Will Jennings and Sky data and elections editor Isla Glaister – and supported by a team of Sky data scientists and designers. It’s an important piece of work for us, and a lot of thought has gone into it.

The poll of polls seeks to give an answer to the most important question of all – the direction of travel of public opinion over time. Are the closing months of this parliament, the declining state of the economy and the emergence of Labour’s policy platform making any difference? Keep coming back to this page.

There are limits. Crude attempts to turn the polling averages for the main parties into a number of seats for each party will always be just that: rough and ready and probably ultimately unhelpful (not that people will stop trying). This is a GB poll so the level of support for the SNP necessarily reflects how they fare comparatively across Great Britain, not just in Scotland.

Likewise, there is nothing here about Northern Ireland. Liberal Democrats might say they perform better in target seats where they focus resources, rather than nationally where they rely on air war alone.

Nevertheless, this is the page – and a tool – which will tell you the biggest picture story about the main parties and their comparative level of support as we hurl towards a general election where anything could happen. See you back here soon.

How does the tracker work?

The main line

The main line travelling from left to right shows the average support that each party was recording on a given date. The average is a simple mean of each of the most recent polls from all pollsters recognised by the British Polling Council.

Pollsters have slightly different methodologies in how they interpret raw results from the sample of people they ask. Our average uses a maximum of one poll per pollster, which means it is not skewed by pollsters who happen to publish surveys more regularly than others.

If the most recent poll by a given pollster was more than 28 days ago, we exclude it from the average.

The dots

The dots on the chart represent results from individual polls. If you click on a dot you can see the details of that particular poll for each party, including the name of the pollster who carried it out and the date they finished asking people.

Read more about the general election:
What happens now an election has been called?
Find your new constituency and how it’s changed
How boundary changes make Starmer’s job harder
The MPs who are standing down

The pollsters

The polls we include are all those by pollsters recognised by the British Polling Council (BPC).

The BPC is an association of polling organisations that publish polls, with a commitment to promoting transparency.

It is concerned only with polls and surveys that set out to measure the opinions of representative samples – such as the views of all adults, or all voters.

Membership is limited to organisations who can show to the satisfaction of the BPC that the sampling methods and weighting procedures used are designed to accurately represent the views of all people within designated target groups.

How are polls carried out?

Most polls these days are carried out online. Pollsters use a panel of people whom they know demographic information about – such as age, gender, education and where they live – so they can pick a sample that best represents the whole UK.

If polls are carried out over the phone, they will ask people this information at the time so that they can factor it into calculations.

Over the course of a few days, they ask these people their political preference and then take into account how many people of different demographics they’ve asked – and adjust the results according to what each pollster thinks is the best way to make the sample most representative of the country as a whole.

In general, pollsters should ask at least 1,000 people to get a reliable result. Statistical theory indicates that you are unlikely to get much more reliable results by asking any more than a couple of thousand people – even in a country of almost 70 million – but too many fewer than 1,000 could make the poll less likely to accurately reflect the views of the population.

More detail from the BPC.

Credits

Chart design and implementation:
Dr Will Jennings, Sky News election analyst
Daniel Dunford, senior data journalist
Yetunde Adeleye and Jenai Edwards, designers

Production:
Przemyslaw Pluta, lead data engineer


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

Why data journalism matters to Sky News

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Pressure mounts on PM to raise Israel’s Gaza offensive with Trump

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Pressure mounts on PM to raise Israel's Gaza offensive with Trump

Sir Keir Starmer is under mounting pressure to raise Israel’s bombardment of Gaza with Donald Trump during his UK state visit, after a UN Commission said a genocide was taking place.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey used the president’s arrival on Tuesday night to call for action on the escalating situation, as Israeli forces advance in Gaza City.

Sky News analysis has found thousands of families remain in the city’s crowded tent camps, despite a ground offensive beginning yesterday.

Sir Ed, who is boycotting the state dinner being held for Mr Trump, said Sir Keir must “press” the president now.

He said: “What is happening in Gaza is a genocide. And the president of the United States, who wants a Nobel Peace Prize, is doing nothing to stop it.”

Displaced Palestinians flee northern Gaza. Pic: AP
Image:
Displaced Palestinians flee northern Gaza. Pic: AP

On Tuesday, a United Nations Commission agreed Israel was committing genocide in Gaza – the first time such an explosive allegation has been made publicly by a UN body.

Israel‘s foreign ministry said it “categorically rejects this distorted and false report” and called for the commission to be abolished.

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Is Israel committing genocide?

‘We cannot be bystanders’

Reports suggest the situation will be a talking point between Sir Keir and Mr Trump during his visit.

It comes before the UK is due to recognise a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly later this month, along with allies including Canada and France.

In a late night statement, Canada’s foreign ministry described the Gaza City offensive as “horrific”.

Lib Dem leader Sir Ed added: “We have long said that Hamas is genocidal and condemned them for their actions.

“Now, I think we have to say that what the Netanyahu government is doing amounts to genocide.”

Labour MP Rosena Allin-Khan, a former shadow minister, also called on her party leader to make discussing the situation in Gaza with Mr Trump a “top priority”.

Speaking to Sky News’ Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge, she said: “We say ‘never again’ when we look at Bosnia and Rwanda, but here we are again, and it’s been livestreamed, and we’ve all seen it.

“We cannot be bystanders to a genocide.”

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‘We cannot be bystanders’

UN report pulls no punches

The accusation of genocide is made by the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory.

It alleges Israel has been “killing Palestinians or forcing them to live in inhumane conditions that led to death; causing serious bodily or mental harm, including through torture, displacement and sexual crime; deliberately imposing inhumane conditions, and fourthly, imposing measures intending to prevent births”.

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Earlier this month, the International Association of Genocide Scholars also passed a resolution stating that Israel’s conduct passed the threshold of committing genocide.

However, a report from the British government said it had “not concluded” that Israel intended to “destroy in whole or in part a national, ethnic, racial or religious group”.

Nearly 65,000 people are now believed to have died, according to figures collated by Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry. It does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count.

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No 10 insists migrant returns deal isn't a 'shambles' after court blocks man's removal

Downing Street has insisted its migrant returns scheme with France is not a “shambles” after the High Court blocked a man’s deportation.

Having seen the previous Conservative government’s Rwanda scheme run into trouble with the courts, the Labour administration’s alternative suffered its own setback on Tuesday.

An Eritrean man, who cannot be named for legal reasons, was due to be on a flight to France this morning.

He brought a legal claim against the Home Office, with lawyers acting on his behalf saying the case “concerns a trafficking claim”.

They also said he had a gunshot wound to his leg, and would be left destitute if he was deported.

The Home Office said it was reasonable to expect him to have claimed asylum in France before he reached the UK in August, but the ruling went in his favour.

Mr Justice Sheldon granted the man a “brief period of interim relief”.

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‘One in, one out’ deal: What do we know?

‘We told you so’

The pilot scheme was announced to much fanfare in July, after Emmanuel Macron made a state visit to the UK.

Sir Keir Starmer had hoped the agreement – which would see the UK send asylum seekers who have crossed the Channel back over to France in exchange for migrants with links to Britain – would prove more resilient to court challenges than the Tories’ Rwanda plan.

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