General election 2024: Rishi Sunak has gone against his reputation for caution and turned out to be a gambler
In 1997, Labour told us “Things Can Only Get Better”, before Tony Blair won a landslide general election victory.
This year, Rishi Sunak appears to have concluded that things are not going to get any better for the Tories if he delays an election until the autumn.
His dash to the polls on 4 July suggests that a prime minister with a reputation for caution and an obsession with spreadsheets is actually a gambler.
To call a general election with his party consistently trailing Labour by 20 points in the Sky News poll of polls at best looks courageous, at worst reckless.
If he can pull it off, however, he will have achieved the Tories’ greatest election win against the odds since John Major won a 21-seat majority in 1992.
Mr Sunak and Mr Major do have some things in common. Both were previously chancellor of the exchequer before becoming PM and both are accused by critics of being – well, frankly – a bit dull.
Sunak calls election: Follow live updates
But in opting for a summer rather than autumn election, the normally cautious Mr Sunak is gambling on a number of fronts: chiefly the economy, migration and his “stop the boats” Rwanda policy.
On the economy, at Prime Minister’s Questions a few hours before Mr Sunak’s shock announcement, he told MPs inflation was “back to normal” and “the plan is working”.
Well, up to a point. Yes, inflation has hit its lowest level in nearly three years. But the fall from 3.2% to 2.3% was not as big as the government had hoped for.
And a June cut in interest rates now looks less likely. And what has happened to Mr Sunak’s pledge to cut income tax from 20p to 19p in the pound by the general election? Gone, presumably.
After his Budget in March, an upbeat Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, told Sky News his 2p cut in national insurance was “absolutely” not the “last throw of the dice” before the election.
With an October or November general election, which Mr Hunt clearly favoured, looking likely, another mini-Budget in September – with that promised income tax cut – was predicted.
But by opting for 4 July, the best the Conservatives can promise now in Mr Sunak’s dash to the polls is tax cuts after the election if he’s back in Downing Street. But we’ve heard all that before.
And on migration, the news is mixed. Nearly 10,000 migrants have crossed the Channel in small boats already this year – a record – and the numbers invariably rise in the better summer weather.
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Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party are ahead in the polls
So far, the threat of deportation to Rwanda hasn’t proved to be the deterrent the government hoped – but that could change once flights get off the ground next month. That could be a turning point.
Other good news for Mr Sunak in a snap poll is that although Labour are ready for an election, Reform UK are nowhere near ready. That was clearly a factor in the PM opting for an early poll.
The last general election held in July was in 1945, on 5 July, when Labour’s Clement Attlee – who had been deputy PM during the wartime coalition – defeated Winston Churchill with a 147-seat majority.
Margaret Thatcher was a fan of June elections, opting for 9 June in 1983, when she won a 144-seat majority, and 11 June in 1987, when her majority was 102 over Neil Kinnock’s Labour.
As for July, is a general election in high summer a good idea? Scots will complain that 4 July falls during their school holidays, which begin on 28 June and last until 16 August.
And what about the sporting calendar? The big sporting event of this summer is the Euros, in which Gareth Southgate’s England football team are strong contenders. 4 July is also in the first week of Wimbledon.
Clement Attlee after winning the last election that was held in July. Pic: AP
The Euros start on 14 June and if England – or Scotland, to be fair, but less likely – progress to the last 16, those games are between 29 June and 2 July and the quarter-finals on 5 and 6 July.
General election coverage competing with football mania? Is Mr Sunak hoping for less election coverage? Or are the Conservatives’ election hopes in the hands of Gareth and the lads?
If history is any guide, footie fan Mr Sunak will hope Harry Kane and the boys powering their way towards the Euros final will create a feelgood factor that helps him win at the polls.
According to political folklore, Harold Wilson blamed England’s World Cup quarter-final defeat by West Germany, four days before the 1970 general election, for his defeat by Edward Heath.
So while Mr Sunak apparently doesn’t believe things can only get better for the Tories between July and the autumn, he will be hoping England’s footballers help things get better for him by 4 July.
Politics
Unite union boss Sharon Graham says Labour should ‘give Britain a break’ and borrow more to help ‘hurting’ workers
Union boss Sharon Graham has said she does not agree with Labour’s fiscal rules and the party should borrow more to invest.
Speaking to Sky News’ Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips in an interview that will be broadcast in full today, the Unite general secretary said other countries with growing economies have a larger debt-to-GDP ratio than the UK, “so there is wiggle room”.
Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, has promised to retain the Tories’ commitment that debt as a proportion of GDP must be on track to fall in five years if Labour win the election on 4 July.
She has ruled out borrowing to fund day-to-day spending, saying her focus will be on reforms to grow the economy.
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But Ms Graham said: “I don’t agree with Rachel Reeves in terms of what has been said about the plans on growth.
“If you look at other countries – in France, their debt to GDP is 112%. In America, where the economy’s growing, it’s 130% debt to GDP. Ours is around about 99%. We have wiggle room. Give Britain a break.”
The union leader said that workers “are literally hurting beyond anything that you could comprehend” due to the cost of living crisis.
She added: “We need the straitjacket off a little bit, get some wiggle room there.
“Borrowing to invest is not the same as other borrowing. It’s borrowing to invest.”
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Reeves: ‘No plans’ for Labour tax increases beyond manifesto
Unite is Labour’s largest union donor but it has refused to endorse the party’s general election manifesto.
Ms Graham has been an outspoken critic of Sir Keir Starmer in the past, previously warning him not to “limp into Number 10” and calling on him to be bolder with his pledges, by nationalising energy, for example.
There has also been a row about his plans to phase out oil and gas licenses in the transition to clean energy, which Unite has called a “ban without a plan” and said threatens job losses.
And more recently Unite accused Labour of watering down its package of workers’ rights, saying the plans had “more holes than Swiss cheese”.
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Ms Graham’s concerns echo those of thinktanks which have said public services need far more investment than what any of the major parties have pledged during the election campaign.
Sir Keir has rejected that argument, insisting there will be no return to austerity despite his party’s commitment to “iron discipline” with the country’s finances.
He has previously defended his U-turn on big spending commitments, like nationalising utilities, by saying the policy became too expensive after the Tories damaged the economy.
In response to other criticisms from Ms Graham, he has insisted he is “not turning off the taps” on oil and gas while arguing his package of workers’ rights will boost wages and raise living standards.
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With less than two weeks to go until polling day, Labour is projected to win a historic landslide after 14 years out of power.
Ms Graham has said she still wants to see a Labour government in Number 10 but thinks the party’s proposals for the country don’t go far enough “after years of Tory neglect”.
The Labour Party has been contacted for comment.
You can watch the full interview with Sharon Graham on Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips from 8.30am on Sky News.
Politics
Bench Across Britain: Farming community calls for ‘more support’ and quashes subsidies ‘misperception’
The Cheshire Show is a world away from Westminster – but amid the agriculture machinery displays, the pony club races and pens with the best of British livestock, we have smuggled our unwieldy parliamentary bench to an industry at the mercy of changing weather and politics.
On the seat of power in a sheep pen in a far corner of the show, Ruth Howard, a ruminant nutritionist, laments the rising price of animal food. “Over the last two years in particular we’ve seen massive increases,” she says.
“I would say about two or three years ago our price for a compound feed would be about £200 a tonne. Last winter we saw them rocket to £400.
“Our motto is that we feed the animals that feed the nation, and we need support to be able to do that.
“The subsidies that are out there have helped soften the blow to the housewife in your shopping basket. Without that and without the support behind agriculture, the cost of living crisis will only get worse.”
Cow and sheep nutritionist Ruth Howard and sheep farmer Richard Gate
The agricultural budget is a common theme of conversation. Sheep farmer Richard Gate says: “Subsidies are given to us and there’s a misperception that it’s to the farmer and it is not. It is to help the farmers produce cheaper food for the general public.”
Responding to the launch of party manifestos, the National Farmers Union (NFU) has expressed concern that while the Conservative Party has committed to increasing the farming budget by £1bn over the course of the next parliament, the Labour Party is yet to give a clear commitment to a budget.
Rachel Hallos, vice president of the NFU, told Sky News: “That does concern us. We need to know what sort of budget is going to be allocated to farming.
“It’s as simple as that. I think the devil is in the detail and there doesn’t seem to be overly amounts of detail.”
National Farmers Union vice president Rachel Hallos
Labour do say in their manifesto that “food security is national security” and promise to “champion British farming”, with a target for half of all food purchased across the public sector to be sourced locally.
At the Cheshire Show, we meet dairy farmer Ray Brown who has recently spoken to both Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer. He was impressed with their understanding of the issues.
Dairy farmer Ray Brown (centre) with colleagues
“We’re very, very reliant on imported food,” he said. “And we only need to look at the recent events around the world. It’s made us surely think about food security.”
He warns that some environmental schemes linked to government payments to farmers are forcing them to stop using good farming land.
Mr Brown says: “The main problem is the government thinking through the policies they’re bringing out, making sure that we can firstly feed everybody and bring environmental schemes out that make sense, use areas which we can’t grow food on, rather than letting land go, which is prime land for producing food.”
Andrew Dutton, from Cheshire Farm Machinery, says his sales are down this year due to the wet spring that has dulled crop and produce yields. He says farmers are lacking confidence to invest.
“We need more support for our farmers. We need to back British farming. We need to buy locally, buy British. The farmers need some confidence going forward that they’re going to receive the funding that they need.”
Andrew Dutton, Cheshire Farm Machinery
Held in Tatton, the Cheshire Show sits in a safe Conservative constituency once held by chancellor George Osborne. The red rosettes on the prize bulls are unlikely to be worn by winners in this constituency on election night, but there’s uncertainty.
Mr Dutton says: “I’m still on the bench really?”
He taps the green cushions on our House of Commons chair. “Personally, I voted Conservative my whole life. But no one’s offering what I want at the moment.”
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A passing woman in jodhpurs says “I’m voting Reform, and a lot of my friends are voting Reform”, but she decides not to take a seat to tell us more.
We do, however, manage to speak to two horsemen fresh from jousting, dressed as knights, in the main arena. Both come from rural, Conservative-held seats in the Midlands. Clutching an axe, Sam Conway from Knights of Nottingham says he traditionally votes Conservative but wants “clarity and honesty”.
He adds: “I don’t feel like I’ve had any of that so far. I don’t feel like anyone’s come out with some clear policies. We see a lot of political jousting.”
Sam Conway and Mark Lacey, jousters for the Knights of Nottingham
Sam’s fellow knight Mark Lacey leans forward on his broadsword and adds: “It’s just time for a change, and let’s see what happens. And I’m happy for it to change.
“I’ve lived in a blue area my whole life, but let’s have a change. Let’s see what somebody else does.”
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On our journey across Britain – to Cornwall, Gloucester, Luton, Southall, Kent, Leicester and now Cheshire – there is a lot of indecision. Shy Tories seem extremely shy while Labour voters question whether their vote will bring the changes they want.
The farming community certainly wants more assurances from Starmer, but it also feels like this area, which is not usually an election battleground for Labour, is open to some form of change. And if Labour can capture a seat like Tatton, it would be a killer blow to the heart of their rivals.
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