The news that inflation had fallen to 2.3%, its lowest level for nearly three years, seems to be one of the reasons the PM called an election for 4 July.
Mr Sunak declared at his first stump speech: “The economy has turned a corner… our plan is working”.
The latest ‘economic optimism index’ for May from pollsters Ipsos suggests that many voters agree with him.
Some 33% of people say the economy will improve in the next 12 months – up 12 points from April (while some 37% say it will worsen).
The national economic mood appears to be on the rise and at its highest point since the summer of 2021 – around the time Britain exited lockdown and celebrated ‘Freedom Day’.
Will economic optimism lead to electoral success?
Historically, the link between voters’ economic expectations and election outcomes is mixed.
In 1983, growing economic optimism saw the Thatcher government secure a four-point swing towards it, against a divided opposition.
But in 2010, Gordon Brown’s government was voted out of office – suffering a swing of five against it – despite a similar proportion of the electorate thinking that the economy was improving.
And in 1997, Labour under Tony Blair won a landslide on a 10-point swing, even though voters were broadly positive about the direction of the economy.
The net economic optimism rating enjoyed by John Major back then (+13) was significantly better than that for Rishi Sunak at the moment (-4).
The last election is a notable historical anomaly, with Boris Johnson securing a swing of 4.6 points despite a prevailing mood of economic pessimism (-29).
But is the improving economic mood translating into greater support for the government?
At the moment, support for the Conservatives in the polls is static – around 23.2% in the Sky News poll tracker, nearly 21 points behind Labour.
The mood for change
So, why isn’t this upswing in economic optimism delivering the electoral rewards that one might expect?
Simply, the electorate has turned against the government and is in the mood for change.
In the latest polling by Ipsos some 66% of people disagreed that it deserved to be re-elected, while 73% said it was ‘time for a change’.
Ahead of the 1979 election, Labour PM Jim Callaghan famously wrote in his diaries, “there are times, perhaps once every thirty years, when there is a sea-change in politics. It then does not matter what you say or what you do. There is a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea-change and it is for Mrs Thatcher.”
The outcome of the 2024 election will hinge upon whether there has indeed been a sea-change in the mood of the electorate and whether signs that the economy has turned a corner will do little to change its mind.
The UK government has announced more than £1.25bn in private US investment in the UK’s financial services sector ahead of US President Donald Trump’s second state visit.
The new US investments are expected to create 1,800 jobs and boost benefits for millions of customers across the country, the UK government said.
It is set to deliver more than £8bn in investment and capital commitments to the UK, with over £12bn flowing in the other direction – creating jobs and opportunities on both sides.
Other companies expected to invest include PayPal, Bank of America, Citi, and S&P Global.
Bank of America will create up to 1,000 new jobs in Belfast as part of its first-ever operation in Northern Ireland, the government said.
Citi plans to invest £1.1bn across its UK operations, while S&P Global will create 200 permanent jobs in Manchester through a £4m investment.
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“Strengthening ties with the US boosts our economy, creates jobs, and secures our role in global finance,” Business and Trade Secretary Peter Kyle said.
“These investments reflect the strength of our enduring ‘golden corridor’ with one of our closest trading partners, ahead of the US Presidential State Visit.”
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Why is the UK economy so volatile?
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said that the commitment from America’s leading financial institutions “demonstrates the immense potential of the UK economy”, as well as “our strong relationship with the US”.
The UK and US agreed a “landmark” economic deal in May, which secured major tariff reductions for key sectors and protected jobs in the automotive and aerospace sectors.
Discussions are ongoing with the US on a broader UK-US economic deal, aimed at increasing digital trade and strengthening supply chains.
MPs urge pressure on US over tariffs ahead of Trump visit
MPs have urged the government to apply maximum pressure on the US to obtain tariff relief ahead of Donald Trump’s state visit.
The Commons Business and Trade Committee described the upcoming visit as a crucial opportunity to push the US president to finalise the remaining terms of the economic prosperity deal.
While the UK and US reached a trade agreement in June that lowered tariffs on car and aerospace exports to the US, negotiations on British steel tariffs remain unresolved, keeping them at 25%.
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Committee chairman Liam Byrne said the state visit is “no mere pageant”.
“We can’t escape the truth that Britain now trades with its biggest partner on terms that are worse than the past, the EU has in places secured a better edge, and key sectors of our economy still face the peril of new tariffs. That means jobs hang in the balance and investment waits on certainty.”
The committee also called on the government to finalise agreements on aluminium and pharmaceuticals, ensuring that the terms accurately reflect the UK’s supply chain dynamics and its shift toward low-carbon production.
It emphasised that the UK should also use its partnership with the US to strengthen its position against China in areas such as artificial intelligence and defence technology, while also securing more resilient supply chains and improved access to critical minerals.
A government spokesperson said the “special relationship” between the UK and the US “remains strong” and that “thanks to our trade deal, the UK is still the only country to have avoided 50% steel and aluminium tariffs”.
“We will work with the US to implement this landmark deal as soon as possible to give industry the security they need, protect vital jobs, and put more money in people’s pockets,” the government spokesperson said, adding, “as well as welcoming the president on this historic state visit.”
The owner of Uswitch, one of Britain’s biggest price comparison platforms, and Zoopla, the online property portal, is plotting a break-up that could lead to the sale of some of Britain’s best-known consumer websites in the next 12 months.
Sky News has learnt that Silver Lake Partners, the American private equity firm, has hired two investment banks to launch a review of strategic options for the assets which sit within holding company ZPG.
This weekend, City sources said that JP Morgan and Arma Partners had been engaged by Silver Lake in recent weeks to advise on the project.
Although no firm decisions have been reached about the future of ZPG’s operating businesses, a series of sale processes for its various assets is seen as the likeliest outcome.
The most prominent of the group’s subsidiaries is RVU, a smaller holding company which owns Confused.com, the insurance comparison venture; Uswitch; Money.co.uk; mortgage brokerage Mojo Mortgages; and Tempcover, a temporary car insurance provider.
ZPG also has three other businesses: Zoopla, which sits behind Rightmove in the rankings of Britain’s biggest property portals; Hometrack, a property information site which also has common ownership with PrimeLocation.com; and Alto Software Group, which provides software services to estate agents through a further group of subsidiaries.
Silver Lake took ZPG private from the London Stock Exchange in 2018 in a deal worth about £2.2bn.
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Since then, it has acquired a number of other businesses, and reorganised itself into four more independent entities which sit within the ZPG holding company.
A source indicated that there was “no particular path or outcome” for the strategic review to take.
Confused.com was added to the group in 2020 when it was absorbed by RVU following the brand’s acquisition from Admiral, the London-listed insurer.
ZPG has also sold several assets, including RVU’s international arm, in 2023.
Industry sources said there was little or no chance of ZPG being sold in one transaction, with its assets more likely to be offloaded through several processes operating on distinct timetables.
The valuation that ZPG’s subsidiaries might fetch in future sale processes was unclear this weekend, with some potentially worth less than their implied value in the 2018 takeover.
Many of ZPG’s businesses operate in markets which have come under increasing pricing pressure, with growing competition placing a tighter squeeze on margins.
Image: Uswitch say they’ve saved consumers close to £3bn over 25 years
Uswitch, which claims to have saved consumers close to £3bn on their household bills since sits launch in 2000, is expected to attract interest from bidders, according to insiders.
Other mooted transactions in the price comparison sector, such as the sale of a minority stake in Compare The Market, have not materialised.
Moneysupermarket, which is now publicly traded under the name Mony Group, is among the other major players in the industry.
Accounts filed at Companies House for Zephyr Midco 2 Limited for the year ended December 31, 2023 showed group revenues of £451.5m, up from £391m the previous year.
It made an operating loss from continuing operations of £23.3m, against a comparable figure of £630.1m in 2022.
Silver Lake is one of the world’s biggest private equity firms, holding stakes in companies including Manchester City Football Club’s immediate parent, City Football Group, and the RAC breakdown recovery service.
Sky News revealed last month that the RAC’s owners were preparing to pursue a stock market flotation or sale of the company.
The buyout firm is also an investor in the New Zealand All Blacks’ commercial rights entity, following a protracted approval process.
The world’s largest money manager will use President Trump’s state visit to the UK next week to unveil a £500m plan to invest in UK data centres, one of the fastest-growing areas of global infrastructure spending.
Sky News has learnt that BlackRock plans to announce a joint venture with Digital Gravity Partners, a digital infrastructure investment manager, that will focus on acquiring and modernising existing data centres to improve their capacity.
Image: Donald Trump will visit the UK next week. Pic: Reuters
The project will be among dozens hailed by the government as evidence of the strength of the economic partnership between Britain and the US, as President Trump arrives in the UK against the politically tumultuous backdrop of Lord Mandelson’s sacking as the US ambassador.
BlackRock, which has more than $12.5 trillion in assets under management, has a significant presence in Britain, and will next week open a new Edinburgh office employing about 1,300 people.
Earlier this week, Sky News revealed that Larry Fink, BlackRock’s chairman and chief executive, would be part of the business delegation accompanying President Trump on the state visit.
Other bosses in attendance will include Jensen Huang of Nvidia, the world’s most valuable public company, and Sam Altman of ChatGPT architect OpenAI.
Bloomberg News reported on Friday that the two companies would launch a multibillion-pound investment in the UK next week that will form part of the vast $500bn Stargate data centre project.
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The vast quantities being spent on artificial intelligence-related data centre infrastructure around the world represents one of the most important trends in the global economy, with the attendant strains on power resources also being throw into sharp focus.
The government hopes to announce early next week aggregate figures for investment and job creation that will rival the £63bn it claimed to have secured as a result of last October’s International Investment Summit, according to insiders.
Critically, at a difficult time for an economy which official data shows is flat lining, the string of major corporate announcements will be hailed by Sir Keir Starmer’s administration as evidence that Britain remains a top global destination for foreign investment.
The Office for Investment, which was recently given a beefed-up role in Whitehall, has been involved in coordinating many of the deals to be announced next week, which will encompass energy, financial services, nuclear power and technology, according to insiders.
Corporate and Whitehall sources said that BlackRock’s £500m data centre deal would reflect the efforts of the prime minister, his business adviser Varun Chandra and chancellor Rachel Reeves to strengthen the government’s relationship with the asset management behemoth during the last year.
Dozens of bosses will attend a state banquet at Windsor Castle hosted by King Charles III during next week’s trip.
President Trump’s visit will, however, come amid tensions over his tariff regime, with continuing uncertainty about the impact on British manufacturing sectors, including steel.
There are also continuing tensions between the UK government and major drugmakers over pricing, with the US administration pressuring pharmaceutical companies to slash the price of prescription medicines in the US.