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The news that inflation had fallen to 2.3%, its lowest level for nearly three years, seems to be one of the reasons the PM called an election for 4 July.

Mr Sunak declared at his first stump speech: “The economy has turned a corner… our plan is working”.

The latest ‘economic optimism index’ for May from pollsters Ipsos suggests that many voters agree with him.

Some 33% of people say the economy will improve in the next 12 months – up 12 points from April (while some 37% say it will worsen).

The national economic mood appears to be on the rise and at its highest point since the summer of 2021 – around the time Britain exited lockdown and celebrated ‘Freedom Day’.

Will economic optimism lead to electoral success?

Historically, the link between voters’ economic expectations and election outcomes is mixed.

In 1983, growing economic optimism saw the Thatcher government secure a four-point swing towards it, against a divided opposition.

But in 2010, Gordon Brown’s government was voted out of office – suffering a swing of five against it – despite a similar proportion of the electorate thinking that the economy was improving.

And in 1997, Labour under Tony Blair won a landslide on a 10-point swing, even though voters were broadly positive about the direction of the economy.

The net economic optimism rating enjoyed by John Major back then (+13) was significantly better than that for Rishi Sunak at the moment (-4).

The last election is a notable historical anomaly, with Boris Johnson securing a swing of 4.6 points despite a prevailing mood of economic pessimism (-29).

But is the improving economic mood translating into greater support for the government?

At the moment, support for the Conservatives in the polls is static – around 23.2% in the Sky News poll tracker, nearly 21 points behind Labour.

The mood for change

So, why isn’t this upswing in economic optimism delivering the electoral rewards that one might expect?

Simply, the electorate has turned against the government and is in the mood for change.

In the latest polling by Ipsos some 66% of people disagreed that it deserved to be re-elected, while 73% said it was ‘time for a change’.

Ahead of the 1979 election, Labour PM Jim Callaghan famously wrote in his diaries, “there are times, perhaps once every thirty years, when there is a sea-change in politics. It then does not matter what you say or what you do. There is a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea-change and it is for Mrs Thatcher.”

The outcome of the 2024 election will hinge upon whether there has indeed been a sea-change in the mood of the electorate and whether signs that the economy has turned a corner will do little to change its mind.

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UK economy shrank by 0.1% in October, official figures show

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UK economy shrank by 0.1% in October, official figures show

The UK economy contracted by 0.1% in October, according to official figures.

The surprise fall in gross domestic product (GDP) – a measure of economic output – comes after a similar unexpected 0.1% drop in September and 0% growth in August.

Economists polled by the Reuters news agency had predicted that October GDP would grow by 0.1%.

The figures, from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), represent more bad news for the chancellor over the state of the UK economy.

Commentators had warned that consumer spending was likely to be restrained in the run-up to November’s budget, amid concerns about the impact of Rachel Reeves’s potential measures on households and businesses.

UK GDP has also been hit hard by disruption to car production caused by a cyber attack on Jaguar Land Rover.

The ONS said that during October, the UK’s services sector fell by 0.3%, while construction was down 0.6%. However, production grew by 1.1%.

It found that GDP on a rolling three-month basis, to October, also fell by 0.1%.

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The ONS’s director of economic statistics, Liz McKeown, said: “Within production, there was continued weakness in car manufacturing, with the industry only making a slight recovery in October from the substantial fall in output seen in the previous month.

“Overall services showed no growth in the latest three months, continuing the recent trend of slowing in this sector. There were falls in wholesale and scientific research, offset by growth in rental and leasing and retail.”

Interest rate cut ‘nailed on’

Commentators also blamed rumours and leaks in the run-up to the budget for dampening demand.

Scott Gardner, from banking giant JP Morgan, said that despite expectations of a return to growth, the economy continued to “battle a period of inconsistent productivity”.

He added: “Speculation about potential budget announcements had a numbing effect on consumers and businesses in the lead up to the chancellor’s speech at the end of November.”

Suren Thiru, from the Institute of Chartered Accountants, said the data increased the likelihood of the Bank of England cutting interest rates next week.

He said: “With these downbeat figures likely to further fuel fears among rate-setters over the health of the UK economy, a December policy loosening looks nailed on, particularly given the likely deflationary impact of the budget.”

Figures ‘extremely concerning’

Barret Kupelian, chief economist at PwC, said that while some of the blame could be attributed to the Jaguar Land Rover cyber attack, “the bigger story is that speculation around the autumn budget kept households and businesses in wait-and-see mode”.

He added: “Given the timing of the budget, November’s GDP print is likely to look similarly subdued before any post-budget effects start to show up.”

Sir Mel Stride, the Tory shadow chancellor, described the figures as “extremely concerning”, claiming they were “a direct result of Labour’s economic mismanagement”.

A Treasury spokesperson said: “We are determined to defy the forecasts on growth and create good jobs, so everyone is better off, while also helping us invest in better public services.”

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Appeal court delay for first Capture case as Post Office requests extension

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Appeal court delay for first Capture case as Post Office requests extension

The first-ever Capture case has been delayed at the Court of Appeal as the Post Office asks for an extension to respond, Sky News has learned.

Pat Owen, a former sub postmistress who has since passed away, was convicted of stealing in 1998 based on evidence from computer software.

The system, known as Capture, was used in up to 2,500 branches in the 1990s, before the infamous Horizon system was introduced.

Hundreds of sub-postmasters were wrongfully convicted between 1999 and 2015 as part of the Horizon scandal.

Earlier this year, Sky News unearthed a 1998 report showing the Capture software was also faulty.

That report, commissioned by the solicitors acting for Mrs Owen in 1998, was served on the Post Office and may never have been seen by the jury in her case.

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‘All we want is her name cleared’

Ms Owen was given a suspended prison sentence and fought to clear her name subsequently – but died in 2003.

More on Post Office Scandal

Her case was referred by the Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC) to the Court of Appeal in October.

The Post Office had until 5 December to respond to papers put forward by Mrs Owen’s defence team but they have now asked for an extension until 30 January.

Ms Owen’s daughter, Juliet Shardlow, described the family’s suffering at the lengthening wait.

“I need to emphasise the profound impact the ongoing delay is having on our family,” she said.

“The continuous uncertainty only compounds our heartache, stress, and anxiety.

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Alan Bates: New redress scheme ‘half-baked’

“It has become the last thing I think about before I go to sleep and the first thing when I wake up.

“We have waited 27 years for justice, and this additional wait feels never-ending.”

Ms Owen’s case is the first time a conviction based on Capture has reached the Court of Appeal since the scandal was exposed.

Read more from Sky News:
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21 ‘Capture’ cases investigated for miscarriages of justice

Lawyers have said that if Ms Owen is exonerated posthumously, it may “speed up” the handling of others.

CCRC chair Dame Vera Baird also told Sky News in the summer it could be a “touchstone case” for other victims.

The CCRC is also continuing to investigate around 30 other “pre-Horizon” convictions.

A Post Office spokesperson said: “We have sought an extension of time to fully consider and respond to the CCRC’s Statement of Reasons in Ms Owen’s case.

“We deeply regret the impact our request for further time will have on Ms Owen’s family.

“We have a duty to carefully consider the evidence presented in the Statement of Reasons submitted by the CCRC and do everything we can to fully assist the Court when it considers this conviction.”

Meanwhile, the first-ever redress scheme for victims of the Post Office Capture IT scandal was launched this autumn.

The Capture Redress Scheme will provide payments of up to £300,000, and more in “exceptional” cases, to former postmasters who suffered financial losses.

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Daily Mail owner lines up NatWest to help fund £500m Telegraph bid

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Daily Mail owner lines up NatWest to help fund £500m Telegraph bid

The owner of the Daily Mail is lining up one of Britain’s biggest high street lenders to help bankroll its £500m deal to buy The Daily Telegraph.

Sky News has learnt that DMGT has turned to its long-standing bank, NatWest Group, to lend a substantial chunk of the Telegraph purchase price.

City sources said on Thursday that discussions between the two were still in progress.

It was unclear how much of the consideration NatWest might finance, or how much equity DMGT intended to put up as part of the deal.

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Last month’s announcement that DMGT was in exclusive talks to buy Telegraph Media Group achieved a long-standing ambition of the Mail proprietor, Lord Rothermere, to own the rival right-leaning newspaper.

However, the transaction still needs to be formally submitted to the culture secretary, Lisa Nandy, who has effectively asked for details of the proposed deal by early next week.

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Lengthy inquiries by the Competition and Markets Authority and Ofcom are also expected to follow.

DMGT’s exclusivity period came within days of a consortium led by RedBird Capital Partners abandoning its own deal amid opposition from within the Telegraph newsroom.

NatWest’s position as a principal lender would, in theory, be advantageous to Lord Rothermere, who will not want to be reliant on overseas financing for the deal.

The DMGT owner had originally intended to acquire a minority stake of just under 10% in the Telegraph titles as part of the RedBird-led transaction.

A previous deal proposed by a consortium including RedBird and the Abu Dhabi state-owned investment firm IMI collapsed after the government changed the law regarding foreign state ownership of national newspapers.

“I have long admired the Daily Telegraph,” Lord Rothermere said last month.

“My family and I have an enduring love of newspapers and for the journalists who make them.

“The Daily Telegraph is Britain’s largest and best quality broadsheet newspaper, and I have grown up respecting it.

“It has a remarkable history and has played a vital role in shaping Britain’s national debate over many decades.”

If the deal is completed, it would bring the Telegraph newspapers under the same stable of ownership as titles including Metro, The i Paper and New Scientist.

DMGT said in November that it planned “to invest substantially in TMG with the aim of accelerating its international expansion”.

“It will focus particularly on the USA, where the Daily Mail is already successful, with established editorial and commercial operations.”

NatWest declined to comment.

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