The news that inflation had fallen to 2.3%, its lowest level for nearly three years, seems to be one of the reasons the PM called an election for 4 July.
Mr Sunak declared at his first stump speech: “The economy has turned a corner… our plan is working”.
The latest ‘economic optimism index’ for May from pollsters Ipsos suggests that many voters agree with him.
Some 33% of people say the economy will improve in the next 12 months – up 12 points from April (while some 37% say it will worsen).
The national economic mood appears to be on the rise and at its highest point since the summer of 2021 – around the time Britain exited lockdown and celebrated ‘Freedom Day’.
Will economic optimism lead to electoral success?
Historically, the link between voters’ economic expectations and election outcomes is mixed.
In 1983, growing economic optimism saw the Thatcher government secure a four-point swing towards it, against a divided opposition.
But in 2010, Gordon Brown’s government was voted out of office – suffering a swing of five against it – despite a similar proportion of the electorate thinking that the economy was improving.
And in 1997, Labour under Tony Blair won a landslide on a 10-point swing, even though voters were broadly positive about the direction of the economy.
The net economic optimism rating enjoyed by John Major back then (+13) was significantly better than that for Rishi Sunak at the moment (-4).
The last election is a notable historical anomaly, with Boris Johnson securing a swing of 4.6 points despite a prevailing mood of economic pessimism (-29).
But is the improving economic mood translating into greater support for the government?
At the moment, support for the Conservatives in the polls is static – around 23.2% in the Sky News poll tracker, nearly 21 points behind Labour.
The mood for change
So, why isn’t this upswing in economic optimism delivering the electoral rewards that one might expect?
Simply, the electorate has turned against the government and is in the mood for change.
In the latest polling by Ipsos some 66% of people disagreed that it deserved to be re-elected, while 73% said it was ‘time for a change’.
Ahead of the 1979 election, Labour PM Jim Callaghan famously wrote in his diaries, “there are times, perhaps once every thirty years, when there is a sea-change in politics. It then does not matter what you say or what you do. There is a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea-change and it is for Mrs Thatcher.”
The outcome of the 2024 election will hinge upon whether there has indeed been a sea-change in the mood of the electorate and whether signs that the economy has turned a corner will do little to change its mind.
Donald Trump has said he will be “involved” in the decision on whether Netflix should be allowed to buy Warner Bros, as the $72bn (£54bn) deal attracts a media industry backlash.
The US president acknowledged in remarks to reporters there “could be a problem”, acknowledging concerns over the streaming giant’s market dominance.
Crucially, he did not say where he stood on the issue.
It was revealed on Friday that Netflix, already the world’s biggest streaming service by market share, had agreed to buy Warner Bros Discovery’s TV, film studios and HBO Max streaming division.
The deal aims to complete late next year after the Discovery element of the business, mainly legacy TV channels showing cartoons, news and sport, has been spun off.
But the deal has attracted cross-party criticism on competition grounds, and there is also opposition in Hollywood.
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3:06
Netflix agrees $72bn takeover of Warner Bros
The Writers Guild of America said: “The world’s largest streaming company swallowing one of its biggest competitors is what antitrust laws were designed to prevent.
“The outcome would eliminate jobs, push down wages, worsen conditions for all entertainment workers, raise prices for consumers, and reduce the volume and diversity of content for all viewers.”
Image: File pic: Reuters
Republican Senator, Roger Marshall, said in a statement: “Netflix’s attempt to buy Warner Bros would be the largest media takeover in history – and it raises serious red flags for consumers, creators, movie theaters, and local businesses alike.
“One company should not have full vertical control of the content and the distribution pipeline that delivers it. And combining two of the largest streaming platforms is a textbook horizontal Antitrust problem.
“Prices, choice, and creative freedom are at stake. Regulators need to take a hard look at this deal, and realize how harmful it would be for consumers and Western society.”
Paramount Skydance and Comcast, the parent company of Sky News, were two other bidders in the auction process that preceded the announcement.
The Reuters news agency, citing information from sources, said their bids were rejected in favour of Netflix for different reasons.
Paramount’s was seen as having funding concerns, they said, while Comcast’s was deemed not to offer so many earlier benefits.
Paramount is run by David Ellison, the son of the Oracle tech billionaire Larry Ellison, who is a close ally of Mr Trump.
The president said of the Netflix deal’s path to regulatory clearance: “I’ll be involved in that decision”.
On the likely opposition to the deal. he added: “That’s going to be for some economists to tell. But it is a big market share. There’s no question it could be a problem.”
Young people could lose their right to universal credit if they refuse to engage with help from a new scheme without good reason, the government has warned.
Almost one million will gain from plans to get them off benefits and into the workforce, according to officials.
It comes as the number of young people not in employment, education or training (NEET) has risen by more than a quarter since the COVID pandemic, with around 940,000 16 to 24-year-olds considered as NEET as of September this year, said the Office for National Statistics.
That is an increase of 195,000 in the last two years, mainly driven by increasing sickness and disability rates.
The £820m package includes funding to create 350,000 new workplace opportunities, including training and work experience, which will be offered in industries including construction, hospitality and healthcare.
Around 900,000 people on universal credit will be given a “dedicated work support session”.
That will be followed by four weeks of “intensive support” to help them find work in one of up to six “pathways”, which are: work, work experience, apprenticeships, wider training, learning, or a workplace training programme with a guaranteed interview at the end.
However, Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden has warned that young people could lose some of their benefits if they refuse to engage with the scheme without good reason.
The government says these pathways will be delivered in coordination with employers, while government-backed guaranteed jobs will be provided for up to 55,000 young people from spring 2026, but only in those areas with the highest need.
However, shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whately, from the Conservatives, said the scheme is “an admission the government has no plan for growth, no plan to create real jobs, and no way of measuring whether any of this money delivers results”.
She told Sky News the proposals are a “classic Labour approach” for tackling youth unemployment.
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7:57
Youth jobs plan ‘the wrong answer’
“What we’ve seen today announced by the government is funding the best part of £1bn on work placements, and government-created jobs for young people. That sounds all very well,” she told Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips.
“But the fact is, and that’s the absurdity of it is, just two weeks ago, we had a budget from the chancellor, which is expected to destroy 200,000 jobs.
“So the problem we have here is a government whose policies are destroying jobs, destroying opportunities for young people, now saying they’re going to spend taxpayers’ money on creating work placements. It’s just simply the wrong answer.”
Ms Whately also said the government needs to tackle people who are unmotivated to work at all, and agreed with Mr McFadden on taking away the right to universal credit if they refuse opportunities to work.
But she said the “main reason” young people are out of work is because “they’re moving on to sickness benefits”.
Ms Whately also pointed to the government’s diminished attempt to slash benefits earlier in the year, where planned welfare cuts were significantly scaled down after opposition from their own MPs.
The funding will also expand youth hubs to help provide advice on writing CVs or seeking training, and also provide housing and mental health support.
Some £34m from the funding will be used to launch a new “Risk of NEET indicator tool”, aimed at identifying those young people who need support before they leave education and become unemployed.
Monitoring of attendance in further education will be bolstered, and automatic enrolment in further education will also be piloted for young people without a place.
The owners of one of Britain’s biggest trade show operators has picked bankers to oversee a sale next year which could fetch well over £1bn.
Sky News has learnt that Providence Equity Partners, which has backed CloserStill Media since 2018, has hired Jefferies and The Raine Group to orchestrate talks with potential buyers.
City sources said this weekend that CloserStill’s earnings trajectory meant that £1bn was likely to be the minimum price tag offered by prospective new owners of the business.
The company operates more than 200 specialist events, in sectors including healthcare and technology.
In September, it acquired Billington Cybersecurity, an operator of shows in the US.
CloserStill’s performance has, like many of its peers, rebounded since the nadir of the Covid pandemic, when many conference organisers feared for their survival.
Alongside Searchlight, another private equity firm, Providence also owns Hyve, another major events organiser.
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Other players in the sector include Clarion, which is owned by Blackstone and which conducted an aborted sale process earlier this year.
Bidders for CloserStill are expected to include trade rivals and other financial investors.