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The news that inflation had fallen to 2.3%, its lowest level for nearly three years, seems to be one of the reasons the PM called an election for 4 July.

Mr Sunak declared at his first stump speech: “The economy has turned a corner… our plan is working”.

The latest ‘economic optimism index’ for May from pollsters Ipsos suggests that many voters agree with him.

Some 33% of people say the economy will improve in the next 12 months – up 12 points from April (while some 37% say it will worsen).

The national economic mood appears to be on the rise and at its highest point since the summer of 2021 – around the time Britain exited lockdown and celebrated ‘Freedom Day’.

Will economic optimism lead to electoral success?

Historically, the link between voters’ economic expectations and election outcomes is mixed.

In 1983, growing economic optimism saw the Thatcher government secure a four-point swing towards it, against a divided opposition.

But in 2010, Gordon Brown’s government was voted out of office – suffering a swing of five against it – despite a similar proportion of the electorate thinking that the economy was improving.

And in 1997, Labour under Tony Blair won a landslide on a 10-point swing, even though voters were broadly positive about the direction of the economy.

The net economic optimism rating enjoyed by John Major back then (+13) was significantly better than that for Rishi Sunak at the moment (-4).

The last election is a notable historical anomaly, with Boris Johnson securing a swing of 4.6 points despite a prevailing mood of economic pessimism (-29).

But is the improving economic mood translating into greater support for the government?

At the moment, support for the Conservatives in the polls is static – around 23.2% in the Sky News poll tracker, nearly 21 points behind Labour.

The mood for change

So, why isn’t this upswing in economic optimism delivering the electoral rewards that one might expect?

Simply, the electorate has turned against the government and is in the mood for change.

In the latest polling by Ipsos some 66% of people disagreed that it deserved to be re-elected, while 73% said it was ‘time for a change’.

Ahead of the 1979 election, Labour PM Jim Callaghan famously wrote in his diaries, “there are times, perhaps once every thirty years, when there is a sea-change in politics. It then does not matter what you say or what you do. There is a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea-change and it is for Mrs Thatcher.”

The outcome of the 2024 election will hinge upon whether there has indeed been a sea-change in the mood of the electorate and whether signs that the economy has turned a corner will do little to change its mind.

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Burger King UK lands new backing from buyout firm Bridgepoint

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Burger King UK lands new backing from buyout firm Bridgepoint

The private equity backer of Burger King UK has injected millions of pounds of new funding as part of a deal which paves the way for their partnership to be extended into the 2040s.

Sky News understands that Bridgepoint has invested a further £15m into the fast food giant in recent days, with a further sum – thought to be up to £20m – to be deployed over the next 18 months.

The new funding has been committed as Burger King UK’s Master Franchise Agreement with a subsidiary of Restaurant Brands International has been extended to 2044 in a deal which is said to align the interests of its various financial stakeholders more closely.

Burger King’s British operations comprise roughly 575 outlets, and employ approximately 12,000 people.

In results released this week, Burger King UK said it had delivered a “solid performance…amid sector headwinds” in 2024.

Revenue increased by 7% to £408.3m, with underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation up 12% to £26m.

The company also said it had completed a refinancing process, with the maturity of its bank facilities pushed out to March 2028.

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Under the leadership of Alasdair Murdoch, its long-serving chief executive, Burger King plans to open roughly 30 new sites next year.

It comes at a challenging time for the UK hospitality sector, with casual dining chains TGI Fridays and Leon both filing to appoint administrators in the last few days.

Industry bosses say that last month’s Budget has piled fresh cost pressures on them.

Bridgepoint declined to comment on the injection of new capital into Burger King UK.

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Hundreds of jobs at risk as LEON moves to cut unprofitable restaurants

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Hundreds of jobs at risk as LEON moves to cut unprofitable restaurants

The fast food chain LEON has taken a swipe at “unsustainable taxes” while moving to secure its future through the appointment of an administrator, leaving hundreds of jobs at risk.

The loss-making company, bought back from Asda by its co-founder John Vincent in October, said it had begun a process that aimed to bring forward the closure of unprofitable sites. It was to form part of a turnaround plan to restore the brand to its roots around natural foods.

It was unclear at this stage how many of its 71 restaurants – 44 of them directly owned – and approximately 1,100 staff would be affected by the plans for the so-called Company Voluntary Arrangement (CVA).

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“The restructuring will involve the closure of several of LEON’s restaurants and a number of job losses”, a statement said.

“The company has created a programme to support anyone made redundant.”

It added: “LEON and Quantuma intend to spend the next few weeks discussing the plans with its landlords and laying out options for the future of the Company.

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“LEON then plans to emerge from administration as a leaner business that can return to its founding values and principles more easily.

“In the meantime, all the group’s restaurants remain open, serving customers as usual. The LEON grocery business will not be affected in any way by the CVA.”

Mr Vincent said. “If you look at the performance of LEON’s peers, you will see that everyone is facing challenges – companies are reporting significant losses due to working patterns and increasingly unsustainable taxes.”

Mr Vincent sold the chain to Asda in 2021 for £100m but it struggled, like rivals, to make headway after the pandemic and cost of living crisis that followed the public health emergency.

The hospitality sector has taken aim at the chancellor’s business rates adjustments alongside heightened employer national insurance contributions and minimum wage levels, accusing the government of placing jobs and businesses in further peril.

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Revenues of water company to be cut by regulator Ofwat

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Revenues of water company to be cut by regulator Ofwat

The UK’s biggest water supplier has been dealt another blow as the regulator decided to reduce its income.

Thames Water, which supplies 16 million people in England, has been told by the watchdog Ofwat its revenues will be cut by more than £187m.

It comes as the utility struggles under a £17.6bn debt pile and the government has lined up insolvency practitioners for its potential collapse.

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Overall, water firms face a sector-wide revenue reduction of nearly £309m as a result of Ofwat’s determination. Thames Water’s £187.1m cut is the largest revenue reduction.

This will take effect from next year and up to 2030 as part of water companies’ regulator-approved five-year spending and investment plans.

The downward revenue revision has been made as Ofwat believes the companies will perform better than first thought and therefore require less money.

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Better financial performance is ultimately good news for customers.

The change published on Wednesday is a technical update; the initial revenue projections published in December 2024 were based on projected financial performance but after financial results were published in the summer and Ofwat was able to apply these figures.

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Is Thames Water a step closer to nationalisation?

Thames Water and industry body Water UK have been contacted for comment.

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