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Sir Keir Starmer’s tour of key battlegrounds kicked off in Scotland on Friday. His message was singular: change. And his target was singular, too: take out the SNP.

In four elections on the bounce, Labour has been nearly wiped out in Scotland by the SNP. In 2019, the party returned one MP to Westminster from Scotland. It now has two. The task in this election campaign is to turn that into dozens.

“This is an election about change, and Scotland’s voice is vital. It needs to be a leading voice,” he said in a slick campaign event with hundreds of people holding up “change” placards and cheering Sir Keir and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar on.

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“Send a message, send a message: that is the height of the SNP’s ambition, to send a message of protest to Westminster. I don’t want Scotland to send a message. I want Scotland to send a government. A Labour government.”

Ask Labour strategists, and they say Scotland is vital to get Labour over the line to a majority because of how far behind Labour were in England back in 2019. They are operating a twin attack on two failing governments – the SNP one in Holyrood and the Conservative government in Westminster – to implore voters to switch back from the SNP to kick the Tories out.

Starmer told me in Glasgow that winning in Scotland was important numerically but also to him personally, because he wants to be a prime minister, should Labour win, that governs for the whole of the UK.

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He has been emphatic that there will be no deal with the SNP, whatever the outcome of this general election, to hammer home the point that if Scots want to be rid of the Conservatives they have to vote Labour in.

But in truth, it is not true that Labour need to win big in Scotland to win a general election.

Yes, since the 1950s, Labour hasn’t formed a majority with fewer than 40 seats in Scotland, but Tony Blair actually had a majority in 1997 on seats won in England alone.

To put it into context, there are 91 parliamentary constituencies in the South East of England and 59 in Scotland.

When the country moves against a government – like the polls are suggesting is happening now – and Labour are doing well in local elections in battlegrounds across England, they should be able to hit a majority without needing a huge amount of the 59 out of 650 parliamentary seats in Scotland.

It is, if you like, a version of Project Fear, as Labour try to sell to the Scots that a vote for the SNP is a vote to keep a Conservative government in.

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Starmer: ‘You have the power to end the chaos’

But there is also a sense – and this is where Starmer has got lucky after 14 years of SNP dominance – that the travails of the SNP, which has been embroiled in scandal around former leader Nicola Sturgeon and her husband, Peter Murrell, the former chief executive of the SNP, and a leadership crisis, has finally given Labour an open goal to win back Scottish voters that turned away from a Labour Party that had for too long taken Scotland for granted.

But as Starmer looks to steal votes from the SNP, with Scotland a key battleground, there are fault lines in this election too for the Labour leader among his base that will emerge as a big theme of this election. As we look at geographical battlegrounds – be that Scotland, the Red Wall across parts of the Midlands, the North East and North West, or the Blue Wall in pockets of the south – there are also demographic divisions emerging. And the schism between Sir Keir Starmer and Labour-voting Muslim communities over the Israel-Hamas war is perhaps one of the most salient going into this general election, with prominent MPs from Jess Phillips to Shabana Mahmood and Wes Streeting facing challenges in their constituencies.

I asked Starmer about this on our second tour stop of the day, when he travelled to South Ribble – a Labour target that switched to Labour in 1997 only to return to the Tories in 2010 – to address building depot workers.

He said, in the wake of the West Midlands mayoral victory by a whisker, that he had listened to voters (the independent candidate in this race took tens of thousands of votes from Labour).

And he left me thinking that while he has a clear message to sell to voters in Scotland, to those who feel let down by Labour, he hasn’t got the answer.

He told me there “needs to be a ceasefire straight away” and more humanitarian aid and “the beginning of a process to a two-state solution, including recognition of Palestine” but demurred from committing to formally recognising the Palestine state in its own right, as Ireland, Norway and Spain have done in recent weeks, saying that policy was to recognise Palestine as part of a two-state solution and that “it was only going to happen if we work with our partners on it”.

The US, UK and other Western countries have backed the idea of an independent Palestine existing alongside Israel, but insists statehood should come as part of a negotiated settlement.

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Starmer is at pains not to diverge from the US and other close allies as he eyes Downing Street.

But there is a cost to him when it comes to some of his traditional voters. His majority doesn’t just rest in the marginals, he has to secure his base too.

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Zack Polanski and Nigel Farage are polar opposites in politics, but have one thing in common

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Zack Polanski and Nigel Farage are polar opposites in politics, but have one thing in common

Zack Polanski and Nigel Farage might be polar opposites when it comes to politics – but they do have one thing in common.

The pair are both cutting through in a changing media landscape when attention is scarce and trust in mainstream politics is scarcer still.

For Farage, the Reform UK leader, momentum has been building since he won a seat at the general election last year and he continues to top the polls.

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Badenoch doesn’t want to talk about Farage

But in the six weeks since Polanski became leader of the Greens, membership has doubled, they’ve polled higher than ever before while three Labour councillors have defected. Has the insurgent firebrand finally met his match?

“I’m sure I don’t need to say this, but I despise Nigel Farage’s politics and disagree with him on almost everything,” Polanski tells Sky News.

“But I think his storytelling has undoubtedly cut through and so yes there has been a huge part of us saying ‘If Farage can do that with a politics of hate and division, then it’s time for the Green Party to do that with a politics of hope and community’ and that’s absolutely what I intend to keep doing.”

Polanski was speaking after a news conference to announce the defections of the councillors in Swindon – a bellwether area that is currently led by a Labour council and has two Labour MPs, but was previously controlled by the Tories.

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It is the sort of story the party would previously have announced in a press release, but the self-described “eco populist” is determined to do things differently to grab attention.

He has done media interviews daily over the past few weeks, launched his own podcast and turbocharged the Greens social media content – producing slick viral videos such as his visit to Handsworth (the Birmingham neighbourhood where Robert Jenrick claimed he saw no white people).

Zack Polanski announces the defection of Labour councillors
Image:
Zack Polanski announces the defection of Labour councillors

Polanski insists that it is not increased exposure in and of itself that is attracting people to his party but his messaging – he wants to “make hope normal again”.

“I’m not going to be in a wetsuit or be parachuting from a helicopter”, he says in a swipe at Lib Dem leader Ed Davey.

“I think you only need to do stunts if you don’t have something really clear to say and then you need to grab attention.

“I think when you look at the challenges facing this country right now if you talk about taxing wealth and not work, if you talk about the mass inequality in our society and you talk about your solidarity with people living in poverty, with working-class communities, I think these are the things that people both want to hear, but also they want to know our solutions. The good news is I’ve got loads of solutions and the party has loads of solutions. “

Some of those solutions have come under criticism – Reform UK have attacked his policy to legalise drugs and abolish private landlords.

Discontent is fuelling the rise of challenger parties. Pic: PA
Image:
Discontent is fuelling the rise of challenger parties. Pic: PA

Polanski is confident he can win the fight. He says it helps that he talks “quite quickly because it means that I’m able to be bold but also have nuance”. And he is a London Assembly member not an MP, so he has time to be the party’s cheerleader rather than being bogged down with case work.

As for what’s next, the 42-year-old has alluded to conversations with Labour MPs about defections. He has not revealed who they are but today gave an idea of who he would welcome – naming Starmer critic Richard Burgon.

Like Burgon, Polanski believes Starmer “will be gone by May” and that the local elections for Labour “will be disastrous”.

He wants to replace Labour “right across England and Wales” when voters go to the polls, something Reform UK has also vowed to do.

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Is Zack Polanski squeezing the Labour vote?

Could the Greens be kingmakers?

Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, says this reflects a “new axis of competition” as frontline British politics shifts from a battle of left vs right to a battle of process vs anti-establishment.

Farage has been the beneficiary of this battle so far but Tryl says Polanski is “coming up in focus groups” in a way his predecessors didn’t. “He is cutting through”, the pollster says.

However, one big challenge Polanski faces is whether his rise will cause the left vote to fragment and make it easier for Farage to win – something he has said he wants to avoid at all costs.

And yet, asked if he would form a coalition with Labour to keep Farage out of power in the event of a hung parliament, he suggested he would only do so if Sir Keir Starmer is no longer prime minister.

“I have issues with Keir Starmer as prime minister,” he says. “I think he had the trust of the public, but I would say that’s been broken over and over again. If we had a different Labour prime minister that would be a different conversation about where their values are.

He adds: “I do think stopping Nigel Farage has to be a huge mission for any progressive in this country, but the biggest way we can stop Nigel Farage is by people joining the Green Party right now; creating a real alternative to this Labour government, where we say we don’t have to compromise on our values.

“If people wanted to vote for Nigel Farage, they’d vote for Nigel Farage. What does Keir Starmer think he’s doing by offering politics that are similar but watered down? That’s not going to appeal to anyone, and I think that’s why they’re sinking in the polls.”

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Crypto bill deliberation reaches fever pitch between industry execs and US lawmakers

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Crypto bill deliberation reaches fever pitch between industry execs and US lawmakers

Crypto bill deliberation reaches fever pitch between industry execs and US lawmakers

The shutdown could stall progress on the crypto market structure bill, but lawmakers continue to insist that the legislation is on track.

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Congress moves to revamp Bank Secrecy Act’s reporting thresholds after 50 years

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Congress moves to revamp Bank Secrecy Act’s reporting thresholds after 50 years

Congress moves to revamp Bank Secrecy Act’s reporting thresholds after 50 years

The STREAMLINE Act would update anti–money laundering rules by lifting decades-old thresholds for transaction reporting, cutting red tape for banks and crypto companies.

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