Russia is producing artillery shells around three times faster than Ukraine’s Western allies and for about a quarter of the cost
Russia is producing artillery shells around three times faster than Ukraine’s Western allies and for about a quarter of the cost, according to an analysis shared with Sky News.
The figures, produced by the management consulting firm Bain & Company, underline a major challenge faced by the Ukrainian armed forces as they rely on supplies of ammunition from the United States and Europe to battle Russia’s full-scale invasion.
The war has been described from the start as a “battle of fires” because of the volume of artillery rounds used.
It prompted the US, the UK and other European allies to seek to ramp up production in their respective factories, but their ability to manufacture artillery rounds still lags behind Russia’s despite a combined economic strength that far outmatches Moscow’s.
As a result, Ukrainian soldiers on the frontline say for every one round they fire against Russian positions, the invading troops can launch around five shells back.
Battling against the odds, the Ukrainians say they have become skilled at trying to make every round count.
“Often, with just one, two or three shells, we can completely destroy a target,” said Senior Lieutenant Kostiantin, an artillery battery commander with the 57th Brigade, which is fighting against a new Russian invasion into the Kharkiv region, in the northeast of Ukraine.
But the commander said Ukrainian troops still need more supplies.
“We have to keep holding the Russians back… and make every metre of land they try to take cost them hundreds of lives.”
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The research on artillery rounds by Bain & Company, which drew on publicly available information, found that Russian factories were forecast to manufacture or refurbish about 4.5 million artillery shells this year compared with a combined production of about 1.3 million rounds across European nations and the US.
On cost, it said the average production cost per 155 mm shell – the type produced by NATO countries – was about $4,000 (£3,160) per unit, though it varied significantly between countries. This is compared with a reported Russian production cost of around $1,000 (£790) per 152 mm shell that the Russian armed forces use.
Artillery is only one of many munition shortfalls faced by Ukraine.
Sky News visited a group of new recruits in the east of the country who were learning how to use an N-LAW anti-tank missile, first provided to the Ukrainian military by the UK.
They said a shortage of supplies means they just pretend to fire the weapon in training and would only use it for real when in battle – and only then there are any stocks.
“We have a lack of N-LAWs and we need more,” said a soldier with the callsign “Bolt”, who was giving the training to the new soldiers in a reconnaissance battalion of 5th Brigade.
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Asked whether he had a message for the factory workers in the UK who assembled the weapon, Bolt said: “We’d like to thank our Western partners for their help. But, if possible, we would be very grateful if they could provide more NATO munitions.”
The importance of producing weapons and ammunition is why many experts say factory production lines – rather than the frontline – could be where the war in Ukraine is won.
Sky News visited a factory in Belfast in April where the N-LAW missile is assembled by Thales, a global defence company. The weapon is designed by the Swedish firm Saab.
The assembly takes place inside a large hall containing a mixture of machines grinding metal and desks where delicate work takes place on tiny but vital components.
Working hours on the production line at the time were only four days a week from 7am until 4pm, though they were believed to be increasing.
Thales manufactures its own weapons here as well, including Starstreak, a short-range, surface-to-air missile that can take out aircraft, and the Lightweight Multirole Missile (LMM). Both of these systems are also used in Ukraine.
Philip McBride, the managing director of Thales Belfast, said N-LAW production capacity had doubled since the start of the year and there was scope to double it again.
Asked why the expansion only began then, when Russia’s full-scale war erupted in February 2022, he explained it was because of a number of factors.
Firstly, the UK Ministry of Defence supplies Ukraine with N-LAWs, rather than Thales directly. The missiles initially given to the Ukrainian military were those that the British armed forces already had in their own stockpiles.
“They’ve granted that and then they go through their own procurement process, agree what their actual requirement is in the UK… and once they’ve decided that, then they’ll place orders allowing us to ramp up,” Mr McBride said.
Another factor is that it can take up to two years to source the parts that are required for the N-LAW.
However, asked if production at the factory would have been expanded sooner had the Ministry of Defence put in orders earlier, the managing director said: “The earlier an order comes, the sooner we can ramp up production.”
A lot of work is going on at the plant to modernise the equipment and enable a further expansion of production lines.
The number of employees has also grown, with around 900 people now working at the site and at a second facility in Belfast, compared with just 500 a few years ago.
World
Indonesia and Thailand mark 20 years since devastating Boxing Day tsunami which killed 230,000 across a dozen countries
Indonesia and Thailand are marking 20 years since a tsunami caused the death of hundreds of thousands of people in one of the worst natural disasters in modern history.
People started gathering in prayer today and visiting mass graves in Aceh, one of the worst-hit areas by the Boxing Day Indian Ocean tsunami which saw an estimated 230,000 people killed across a dozen countries.
The tsunami was triggered by a 9.1-magnitude earthquake that struck off the west coast of North Sumatra, Indonesia, at 7.59am local time on 26 December 2004.
Indonesia was the country with highest number of deaths, but India, Sri Lanka and Thailand were also badly hit.
People remember the victims of the tsunami in Indonesia’s Aceh
Many wept openly at the mass grave in Ulee Lheue village, where more than 14,000 unidentified and unclaimed tsunami victims are buried. It is one of several mass graves in Banda Aceh, the capital of Indonesia’s northernmost province.
Footage showed people visiting a mass grave in Siron to remember the victims of an event that shocked the world.
People gather to mark the anniversary in Thailand
In Thailand, people gathered in Phang Nga province to honour the victims and those affected.
To mark the 20th anniversary of the disaster, Sky News has spoken to people who survived the tsunami, one of whom lost his brother to the huge waves while they holidayed together in Thailand.
In Aceh, the tsunami reached 167ft (51m) high, according to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and caused flooding up to three miles (5km) inland.
The infrastructure in Aceh has been rebuilt and is now more resilient than 20 years ago.
Early warning systems have been installed in coastal areas to alert residents of potential tsunamis, providing crucial time to seek safety.
A coast guard ship that was carried about 5km inland to the city centre of Banda Aceh during the tsunami. Pic: Reuters
The rebuilding efforts were made possible by the support of international donors and organisations, who contributed significant funds to help the region recover.
Schools, hospitals, and essential infrastructure that were destroyed by the disaster have been reconstructed with enhanced strength and durability, ensuring better preparedness for future challenges.
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Various communities in Aceh commemorate the tsunami yearly along with the government and local authorities.
In Banda Aceh, art communities in early December spread disaster awareness through theatrical or musical performances that can be easier for people to follow and target all groups, including those born after the tsunami.
World
Undersea power cable suffers outage as Baltic Sea countries on edge over series of disruptions
Sir Keir Starmer has condemned Russia’s Christmas Day bombardment of Ukraine, saying the hail of missiles and drones was “bloody and brutal”.
The prime minister lamented that there was “no respite even at Christmas” for Ukrainians, who spent the morning sheltering in metro stations as bombs rained down on their cities.
Russia’s defence ministry said it carried out a “massive strike” on energy facilities that it claimed supported Kyiv’s military.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy also condemned the attack, saying Russia was seeking to plunge his people into darkness.
“Putin deliberately chose Christmas,” he said on Wednesday. “What could be more inhumane?”
In the east, Kremlin forces claim to have captured the settlement of Vidrodzhennia as they continue to make territorial gains.
People take shelter at a metro station during an air raid alert in Kyiv. Pic: Reuters
‘Christmas gift to Ukraine’
Regions across the country reported missile and drone strikes as Ukrainians spend another holiday season facing attacks on their power infrastructure.
Kyiv’s military said it downed 59 Russian missiles and 54 drones, but others made it through their air defences.
Strikes in Kharkiv wounded six people and left half a million in the region without heating, as temperatures hovered just a few degrees above zero.
Firefighters work in the wreckage of homes in Kharkiv. Pic: Reuters
“Kharkiv is under massive missile fire. A series of explosions rang out in the city and there are still ballistic missiles flying in the direction of the city. Stay in safe places,” Kharkiv mayor Ihor Terekhov said.
In the capital, residents faced blackouts while in Dnipro region one person was killed.
Dnipropetrovsk Governor Serhiy Lysa said the Russian army is trying to destroy the region’s power system.
Sophia Square, Kyiv, on Christmas Eve. Pic: Reuters
Ukrainians, marking their second Christmas since changing to celebrate on the same day as the West, sheltered in underground metro stations as the deadly salvo of missiles soared towards them.
“Russia’s Christmas gift to Ukraine: more than 70 missiles and 100 drones,” US ambassador Bridget Brink said. “For the third holiday season, Russia weaponises winter.”
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A military chaplain conducts a Christmas Eve mass for soldiers on the front line. Pic: Reuters/72nd Mechanised Brigade
Four dead in Kursk region
In the east, Ukrainian soldiers celebrated Christmas by candlelight as they ate together near the frontline.
Fighting continues to be tough in Donbas, as Russian forces push forward and make steady gains.
On Wednesday, Russia’s defence ministry said its forces had taken the settlement of Vidrodzhennia.
Soldiers eat by candlelight on Christmas Eve near the front line. Pic: Reuters/33rd Separate Mechanised Brigade
Across the border, in Russia’s Kursk region, four people were killed and five injured in the town of Lgov after Ukrainian shelling, the region’s acting governor said.
“A five-storey residential building, two single-storey residential buildings and a single-storey beauty salon were seriously damaged,” Alexander Khinshtein wrote on Telegram.
Pope calls for peace talks
In the Vatican, Pope Francis mentioned the war in Ukraine directly during his Christmas Day message, calling for “the boldness needed to open the door to negotiation”.
Speaking to thousands of people from the balcony of St Peter’s Basilica, he said: “May the sound of arms be silenced in war-torn Ukraine!”
He also called for “gestures of dialogue and encounter, in order to achieve a just and lasting peace”.
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