Kris Knoblauch’s journey from youth hockey coach to ‘saving’ Oilers’ season
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Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
The Edmonton Oilers looked anything but championship-caliber.
It was 13 games into the season. They were 2-9-1, skidding into an abyss of their own making. Those visions of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl lifting the first Stanley Cup for the Oilers since 1990 fizzled into static.
Coach Jay Woodcroft was out. Kris Knoblauch, a novice NHL head coach who had been behind the bench of AHL Hartford, was in. And general manager Ken Holland isn’t shy about giving Knoblauch credit for reaching to the abyss, pulling the team to solid footing and leading the Oilers to within seven wins of the Stanley Cup.
“He came in and saved the season,” said Holland, who hired Knoblauch to replace Woodcroft in November 2023. “The team rallied around him and we got to .500 at Christmas time. We dug out of a big hole and Kris was a big, big reason for it.”
Knoblauch gets a little lost in the cacophony of hype when the Oilers succeed. It’s more about McDavid and Draisaitl, two of the best players in the world; or the emergence of Evan Bouchard as an elite defenseman; or the way their special teams take over games.
But where would the Oilers be now were it not for Knoblauch rebuilding their confidence after a spectacular early-season flop? Or making the right personnel choices? Or having the audacity to bench starting goaltender Stuart Skinner for a playoff newbie in Calvin Pickard against the Vancouver Canucks, to get his team’s attention defensively and give the struggling Skinner a breather? And then having it actually work?
“You’re in a playoff series against Vancouver, and he has a real tough decision to make in a goalie move. It gave Stu a chance to reset,” Holland said. “He’s very impressive for a rookie coach. It’s a hard league. I thought during the regular season, he had a great feel for who should play and who shouldn’t play.”
Then there was the timeout in Game 7 against Vancouver. The Canucks had cut the Oilers’ lead to 3-2 at home in the third period. It was loud and chaotic and it felt like things might be slipping away from Edmonton. So Knoblauch called a T.O., gathered his players and calmed things down.
“We got to make some plays. Keep it simple. We’re good. We’ve been in this situation lots,” he said on the bench. “Make your plays, win your battles, let’s put the pressure on them.”
The Oilers won Game 7 and advanced to the Western Conference finals.
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Oilers survive late Canucks surge to win Game 7, reach West finals
The Oilers score three second-period goals to power a Game 7 victory over the Canucks, setting up a date with the Stars in the Western Conference finals.
There’s something inherently different about the Oilers’ composure this season. They don’t get rattled when they can’t get to their offensive game or when the power play doesn’t click. They look as poised winning a lower-scoring grind of a playoff game as they do lighting offensive fireworks.
Some of that demeanor comes from the players’ own focus this season. But it also trickled down from Knoblauch and what he preaches as a coach.
“It’s about confidence in your game and confidence that it doesn’t matter what happens, you’re going to persevere and get through it,” Knoblauch said.
It’s also about a coach keeping a stoic equanimity, whether he’s calling a timeout in Game 7 or softly criticizing postseason officiating.
“As a coach, I always want to get excited, start yelling and screaming,” he said. “But I also know, especially when I was coaching junior, I didn’t want my players losing their focus and didn’t want them to get distracted. If I don’t want them to do it, I shouldn’t be behaving that way, either.”
That composure was evident when Knoblauch coached the Erie Otters in the OHL and the Hartford Wolf Pack in the AHL.
It was also evident in a side gig Knoblauch had right before the Oilers hired him: working as a youth hockey coach in West Hartford, Connecticut.
“He never yelled at us. Super positive guy,” said Zac Jainchill, who played on the youth team that Knoblauch helped instruct. “It’s cool to know that someone that had coached me is now a few wins away from winning the Stanley Cup.”
KNOBLAUCH WAS DRAFTED No. 166 overall by the New York Islanders in 1997, but his playing career didn’t see him rise any higher than the Central Hockey League, where he played for the Austin Ice Bats in 2004-05. He transitioned to coaching soon after that, manning the benches for the Kootenay Ice (2010-2012), Erie Otters (2013-2017) and the Wolf Pack (2019-2024), an affiliate of the New York Rangers.
His son, Marek, was born in 2007. While Knoblauch was coaching the Wolf Pack, his son was playing youth hockey with the West Hartford Wolves program. Despite leading the top minor league affiliate of an Original Six team, Knoblauch offered his services to help coach the team.
“I mean, it’s absolutely unbelievable,” said Ken Mangini, assistant coach of the West Hartford Wolves bantam team. “There’s really no words. It was so cool.”
Knoblauch would horse around with the players, push pucks with the assistant coaches and move pucks around as different drills were being done. He attended several games with the team but never worked behind the bench, having established early on that he felt his presence might be a distraction during games.
“We didn’t really know what to expect from him, but he showed up quite a few times,” Mangini said. “We started around August, so he probably came once a week. He’d game plan and put practice plans together with us. He was just another coach out there.”
Knoblauch became something more than “just another coach” last November.
Mangini was coaching the team on a Sunday afternoon. Marek Knoblauch had informed the coaches that he wouldn’t be around that weekend for the game.
Mangini was in the locker room doing a postgame discussion with his players — what went right, what didn’t. As he went through his spiel, Jainchill interrupted his speech. Jainchill had gotten a text message from his older brother. It was a link to an ESPN article that offered some breaking NHL news: Kris Knoblauch was now the head coach of the Edmonton Oilers.
“I just shouted out, ‘Holy cow!'” Jainchill recalled.
Mangini was annoyed. “Can it just wait?” he said. “Like, please let me finish, I want to get home.”
“I was like, ‘Yeah, whatever, this is more important,'” Jainchill said with a laugh. “He got mad at that, but it’s fine. Everyone was pretty excited about the news.”
That included Mangini.
“He was just with us, literally just with us, a few days ago, on the ice shooting pucks around,” he said. “We got to learn from not only from the head coach of the Wolf Pack, but now the head coach of the Edmonton Oilers, who’s going to be working with Connor McDavid. It’s just crazy.”
When Knoblauch was hired by the Oilers, there was a torrent of reactions from executives, former teammates and the players he coached in the minor leagues.
Mangini and Jainchill had their own unique perspective on the new Edmonton coach.
“He knew his stuff for sure,” Jainchill said. “Definitely made us all better hockey players.”
Like when he made a comparison to Jainchill’s offensive game that the young player will never forget. “He told me I had silky mitts like [Rangers center] Mika Zibanejad,” he said. “I thought that was the coolest thing ever.”
Mangini wasn’t surprised to see Knoblauch get his chance in the NHL after seeing how he operated at the youth level.
“I am so happy for him,” he said. “Kris is just really down to earth, really approachable, easy to talk to, everything that you would hope you could have in a coach.”
COMMUNICATION AND RELATIONSHIPS. Those have been the central focus for Knoblauch as a hockey coach, at every level. Perhaps it’s in his teaching background, as he has an education degree from the University of Alberta. Perhaps it’s just a 45-year-old head coach believing there’s a better, more human way to connect with athletes.
“It was a character analytic thing,” Erie Otters GM Dave Brown told USA Today Network last year. “He would say, ‘I would take the guy out for coffee, talk to him for 20 minutes and get to know him a little bit better as a person — what’s going on in his home life and everything else.'”
Knoblauch had a handful of current New York Rangers players on his Hartford teams, and they experienced that one-on-one attention firsthand.
“It seemed like a pain at the time, being in his office every day, watching so many video clips,” forward Will Cuylle said. “But looking back on it, it really made a huge difference and obviously I’m super thankful for that.”
Rangers rookie sensation Matt Rempe would also have one-on-one sessions with Knoblauch.
“I was just always in his office, and he was always asking, ‘Oh, what are you doing today? How’s your family, how’s your mom?’ All that type of stuff,” Rempe said. “Not even so much about hockey. Sometimes he’ll show some clips and stuff, but just I feel like he makes you feel comfortable and at home and I think that’s really important.”
Rempe said he’s “so happy” for Knoblauch’s success in Edmonton.
“He was so good to me. He was talking to me every single day, just built a really close personal relationship with him,” he said. “He was always so nice to me and supportive. So, great guy. I thought he was a great coach as well. So I’m really happy for his success.”
Although that happiness does come with an important caveat for Rempe.
“As a Calgary guy, I hate to see Edmonton do good,” said Rempe, throwing his elongated arms in the air for effect. “I hate it.”
Knoblauch was coaching Rempe with the Wolf Pack when the Oilers came calling. He aspired to become an NHL head coach, having put in the time in the AHL and as an assistant coach with the Philadelphia Flyers from 2017 to 2019. He was an interim coach for the Rangers in 2020-21 and 2021-22 while filling in for David Quinn and Gerard Gallant due to COVID-19 absences. He went 6-1-1.
He had to contemplate whether Edmonton was the right landing spot for his first NHL coaching gig. Ultimately, the chance to coach a talent-laden playoff contender was too much to pass up.
In the 2017-18 season, Holland was looking to hire a head coach for Grand Rapids, the Red Wings’ AHL affiliate. He had a meeting with Knoblauch in an airport hangar that lasted a few hours. A job didn’t materialize, but Holland started following Knoblauch’s career. He’d get glowing remarks about Knoblauch from Ryan Martin, the New York Rangers’ assistant general manager who runs the Hartford Wolf Pack. Martin worked under Holland in Detroit.
“Ryan told me he had great feel, great instincts,” Holland said. “It’s easy to have those instincts when you’re at the AHL level and there’s not a lot of media. Certainly the decisions are much more under the spotlight and you’re much more scrutinized at this level.”
When the Oilers were bottoming out at the start of the season, Holland had a conversation with Edmonton’s CEO of hockey operations Jeff Jackson about coaching options. Jackson knew Knoblauch when he was a player agent, as several of his former clients played for the coach in Erie, including McDavid.
That relationship made Knoblauch’s hiring an awkward one. Many assumed McDavid had influenced either Woodcroft’s firing, Knoblauch’s hiring or both. The star center and the team pushed back hard on that speculation.
“I know the narrative out there, couldn’t be further from the truth,” McDavid said after the hire. “Obviously I thought he was great in junior. I don’t know what he’s been up to other than he’s been coaching obviously in the NHL as an assistant and in the American league.”
Jackson said the Oilers “didn’t consult with the players on this decision” when the team hired Knoblauch.
“The fact that Kris was Connor’s coach in Erie in 2014-15, it only has something to do with this because I think Kris Knoblauch is a very good coach,” Jackson said. “Connor didn’t have anything to do with this decision and neither did the others in the leadership group.”
Perhaps it’s coincidence, perhaps not, but McDavid scored 122 of his 132 points this season in the 65 games in which Knoblauch was his coach.
Knoblauch put a premium on having the most talented players lead the way this season.
“Everyone follows by example,” he said. “If your leaders are getting excited and getting frustrated and angry, it spreads throughout the whole team. They’ve handled it really well, whatever has been thrown in our direction. That’s definitely what you want from a mature, focused group.”
It’s been a surreal few months for Knoblauch, going from minor league coach moonlighting as a youth hockey instructor to the head coach of a team that’s seven wins away from the Stanley Cup.
“I’m trying to enjoy it as much as possible,” Knoblauch said. “It’s been quite a ride, just to be able to get this position with the Edmonton Oilers, an elite organization. A team that has some superstars and a lot of good players. I’m just trying to enjoy it as much as possible. And you never know when you’re going to get an opportunity like this again.”
Holland believes the Oilers wouldn’t have this opportunity without Knoblauch.
“He’s very impressive in the decisions that he’s made and a big reason why we’re here today,” Holland said. “Kris has done a lot of winning.”
Cranberry, Pa. – As Evgeni Malkin sits in an empty locker room at the Penguins practice facility, being interviewed for a story about his longtime teammate Sidney Crosby, the 39-year-old Russian center makes a point for emphasis.
“You see security here?” Malkin says, motioning to the Penguins’ detail, standing discreetly in the doorway. “It’s like, not my security. It’s Sidney Crosby’s security.”
Malkin’s résumé certainly warrants the celebrity treatment: Calder Trophy, Hart Trophy, two scoring titles and, of course, three Stanley Cups in a nine-year span that brought the Penguins back to glory.
But nobody on the Penguins — or perhaps the entire hockey world — can match Crosby’s star power. The captain’s reputation, let alone his list of on-ice accomplishments, is pristine. “You never heard one bad thing about Sidney Crosby,” said Kris Letang, the other member of Pittsburgh’s big three. “He’s perfect. He’s the perfect ambassador for the game.”
It’s why, ahead of Crosby’s 21st season in the NHL, there has been so much discourse about what his future might hold — and whether one of hockey’s most transcendent talents is wasting his final chapter holding on to what he once had in Pittsburgh.
Not only is Crosby’s production absurd (1,687 points in 1,352 career games and counting) but few players in hockey history have remained this consistent and this competitive as they enter their career twilight. While playing his sound two-way game, Crosby scored 91 points (33 goals, 58 assists) in 80 games this past season, leading the Penguins by 21 points. In an NHLPA poll released in April, Crosby was voted by his peers as the “most complete player” in the game — for the sixth straight season.
Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid at age 28 — a full decade younger than Crosby — is in the prime of his career. But he still defers to Crosby. McDavid advocated for Crosby to captain Team Canada at last February’s 4 Nations Face-Off, calling it a “no-brainer.”
“He hasn’t seemed to change at all,” McDavid said last fall. “He has been great year after year. It’s so impressive to see someone I grew up admiring still doing it to this day.”
Crosby has once again been able to play meaningful games on the international stage, which should include NHL players’ long-anticipated return to the Olympics this February, where he will likely captain Team Canada again.
The Penguins’ prognosis, however, is not as bright. Pittsburgh’s 16-year Stanley Cup playoffs streak ended in 2023, and the Penguins haven’t returned since. GM Kyle Dubas has been embarking on a rebuild, restocking a prospect pool that was essentially barren, with so many draft picks and young players traded away in order to chase championships. Pittsburgh’s opening night roster will feature five rookies, led by a first-time head coach, Dan Muse, who is just five years older than Crosby. They are loading up for the future.
“We’re in a period of transition, and our goal is, and the expectation is, we’re going to get to the point where we’re not just contenders again, but it’s gonna be contending on a consistent basis,” Muse said. “It’s not just get back into the playoffs; it’s to be a true contender, and then to stay there. And I think that’s been extremely clear to me from day one. And that message has been consistent in the time prior, until now.”
Nobody knows how long that plan will take — including the Penguins. It’s dictated by a series of factors, including development.
Meanwhile Crosby’s performance at 4 Nations (he tied McDavid for the team lead with five points in four games as Canada won the tournament) punctuated how exciting it is to see the 38-year-old on hockey’s most competitive stages still.
Some people around Crosby have tried to advocate that it’s a disservice to hockey to stick around for a rebuild with no end in sight. That includes Crosby’s longtime agent, Pat Brisson, who has said publicly that it’s his personal belief that Crosby needs to be playing playoff hockey.
For his part, Crosby maintains tunnel vision. That might sound like lip service for most people, but not Crosby, whose determination is fueled by details and an obsession for routine. He said his mindset every season is the same — an approach that prepares him to play in June. He maintains that he hasn’t seriously considered a trade to this point.
“I know that if all my energy isn’t towards what it needs to be, then I’m not giving myself the best chance for it to be successful,” Crosby said. “If it ever came to that point, I would discuss it, but I don’t feel like I’m there.”
Crosby’s two-year extension he signed summer 2024 kicks in this season. It’s extremely team friendly: $8.7 million average annual value, perhaps half of what he could receive on the open market. It’s also an extremely tradable contract — and all the cards belong to Crosby, who has a full no-movement clause. League sources believe the Penguins would never approach Crosby to waive it, out of deference to him. A trade would have to be Crosby driven. He would choose the time, and he would choose the destination. The Penguins would need to get compensation they felt is fair. And it all likely would go down quietly.
Or it might not happen at all. Crosby’s future is entirely in his hands. He wants to win again as badly as anyone — but in Pittsburgh. To this point in his career, he has demonstrated incredible loyalty to Pittsburgh, as well as his teammates. That’s especially true with Malkin and Letang; they are longest-tenured trio of teammates in major North American sports history
“He’s a very special person for me, because he’s probably my best friend here in Pittsburgh,” Malkin said. “First guy I met when I went to Pittsburgh, I go to dinner with Mario [Lemieux] and Sid. And after, we’re always together. I mean, he texts me all summer, you know? He texts me during season, we try to support each other. It’s not always perfect, you know? Sometimes, like, we need to understand each other. Some guys have problem with, like, games, with families, you know? Like — and he asks me, like — all the time like, ‘If you need anything, come to my house.'”
Malkin enters the final year of his contract and trade speculation is sure to ramp up around his name as well. As the Penguins opened camp, Malkin said he hopes it won’t be his last season in Pittsburgh, but admitted that would be dependent on both how he and the team play. Malkin scored 16 goals and 50 points in 68 games this past season. Letang is signed through 2028.
Another name to watch this season will be Bryan Rust, Crosby’s winger on the top line. Rust is signed through the next three seasons. The 33-year-old is happy in Pittsburgh and wants to stay. However, he doesn’t have trade protection. If the Penguins get a good enough offer — a package that could accelerate the rebuild — Rust could be traded away just like Jake Guentzel two years ago.
It’s not just friendships on the ice for Crosby that tie him to Pittsburgh: it’s relationships with the community.
“We have the children’s hospital visit that we do once a year with the entire team. There’s tons of cameras,” Letang said. “But he’s also going to go see patients in a different hospital and that’s completely off radar. And, you know, I was a witness because he asked me to come with him one year and see what he was doing.”
Youth hockey in Pittsburgh has exploded since Crosby’s arrival. The Little Penguins Learn to Play program Crosby launched in 2008 has introduced thousands of kids to the sport. Crosby and the city are in a long-term relationship that truly has benefitted them both.
“I still remember my first day going there, getting to the airport, coming down the escalators, and just it was packed,” Crosby said. “To have that kind of welcoming, and then just, right from arriving at the rink to living with Mario, just so many amazing first impressions, but then great memories since. It’s been a long time I’ve been there, and I couldn’t be more grateful that it worked out the way it has and that I was drafted there.”
Those close to Crosby say the distinction of wearing only one jersey is something he strongly considers. When Los Angeles Kings captain Anze Kopitar announced his retirement after this season, he noted playing his entire career in one city was a major point of pride for him.
However, there’s a counterpoint: Tom Brady. His reputation in New England is still as its all-time franchise legend. But after 20 years, he signed with the Buccaneers and was able to finish out his career with another championship there, too.
So, it comes down to the question: What motivates Crosby at this point?
“As you play, if you still have the passion, I think you find different things that motivate you,” Crosby said. “This year is obviously an Olympic year, so you know, that’s a big motivation. But as far as just in general, I think the motivation is just to be my best. You know, whatever that is, you know, regardless of age and expectations, all that. I always just try to be my best, and that’s enough for me.”
Malkin took it a step further.
“I think he mentally wants to show every year he can play 100%,” Malkin said. “And mentality, like, maybe one more cup, you know? We want to win together again. Because last cup, like, 10 years ago.”
In fact, it has only been eight years since the Penguins last won. But for an all-time great, that can feel like forever.
The SEC is eating up half the spots in the latest College Football Playoff top 12 projection — and Texas isn’t even taking up one of them.
The Longhorns are out following their loss to Florida in the Swamp. Penn State is out following an embarrassing loss at once-winless UCLA. Florida State is out after a second loss, this time to rival Miami.
Which means new teams can get in.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into four groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. Teams listed as On the cusp are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.
The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Spotlight: LSU. The Tigers came back into the conversation this week, in part because Penn State tumbled out and opened a spot. They ranked No. 12 in our projection. If the playoff were today, though, the committee’s No. 12 team would get knocked out of the field during the seeding process to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. If LSU is going to truly legitimize itself in the playoff race, it has to move up into a top-10 spot, which is the safest place to be. That’s not going to be easy, considering LSU has the 10th-most-difficult remaining schedule, according to ESPN Analytics. The metrics give LSU the 10th-best chance in the SEC to reach the conference championship game (4.4%). Saturday’s game against South Carolina is critical because the next three opponents (No. 20 Vandy, No. 5 Texas A&M and No. 8 Alabama) are ranked, and two of the three games are on the road. If LSU is going to be a factor in the postseason, it has to improve its running game and its big-play capabilities. The run game ranks 119th in the country with 104.8 yards per game, and LSU is No. 103 in plays over 20 yards (18).
The enigma: Missouri. We’ll learn more about the undefeated Tigers on Saturday when they host Alabama, but as of right now, their best wins are against Kansas and South Carolina. They’ve got the No. 3 running game in the country (292 yards per game), and lead the country in third-down conversion percentage (61.6%). Defensively, they’re fundamentally sound, leading the country with only 20 missed tackles. Can they maintain this success against a ranked opponent? The Tigers have the seventh-most-difficult remaining schedule, according to ESPN Analytics. They’re about to enter their season-defining stretch, and they had a bye week to prepare for the Tide. After that, it’s back-to-back road trips to Auburn and Vandy. This month will determine how seriously to take Mizzou.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M
On the cusp: LSU
Work to do: Missouri, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Texas
Big Ten
Spotlight: Michigan. The Wolverines have won three straight games since the Week 2 road loss at Oklahoma, and they’re growing along with freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood. According to ESPN Analytics, Michigan currently has the fourth-best chance to reach the Big Ten title game (22.5%) behind Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana, but the latter two play each other Saturday. If Michigan can win at USC on Saturday, the picture begins to change, but ESPN’s FPI gives USC a 68.5% chance to win. If Michigan loses, it would be in a must-win situation against rival Ohio State in the regular-season finale to avoid a third loss and have a chance at an at-large bid. (That is assuming, of course, that Michigan doesn’t stumble along the way to sneaky good teams such as Washington and Maryland.) The Wolverines have one of the nation’s top rushing offenses and defenses heading into USC. Speaking of the Trojans …
The enigma: USC. Can the Trojans play four quarters against a ranked opponent? USC was undefeated heading into Illinois on Sept. 27, and couldn’t finish in a 34-32 loss. They get the Wolverines at home before heading to rival Notre Dame on Oct. 18. A win against Michigan would give USC a much-needed cushion, considering its two toughest remaining games — Notre Dame and Nov. 22 at Oregon — are on the road. USC’s defense has allowed at least 30 points in each of the past two games. The selection committee won’t penalize USC for a close road loss to a decent Illinois team, but it will be looking for statement wins, and right now the Trojans don’t have one.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
On the cusp: Michigan
Work to do: Illinois, Maryland, Nebraska, USC, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Georgia Tech. The undefeated Yellow Jackets are one missed call from being in the “work to do” category below. Officials missed a critical offsides penalty Sept. 27 at Wake Forest, helping Georgia Tech drive down the field for a game-tying field goal before winning in overtime. The selection committee members will know this situation and consider it during their discussions. The Jackets are here because of their realistic chance to reach the ACC title game — not their résumé, which doesn’t include any wins against ranked opponents, and that might continue, as none of their remaining ACC opponents is currently ranked. Rival Georgia will be Georgia Tech’s best chance to impress the selection committee for an at-large bid if the Jackets don’t win the ACC. They’re good enough, though, to be undefeated heading into the Georgia game, which could make things interesting. Right now ESPN’s FPI projects the Jackets to win each remaining game except against Duke and Georgia. That’s why ESPN Analytics is showing Georgia Tech has the fourth-best chance (18.6%) in the league to reach the ACC title game behind Miami, Duke and Virginia. If Georgia Tech doesn’t lock up a spot as the ACC champ, the committee will have a significant debate about the Jackets as a two-loss ACC runner-up (loss in ACC title game and to Georgia) with no statement wins.
The enigma: Virginia. First the Cavaliers caught the nation’s attention with the Friday night spotlight win against Florida State, and then they eked out an overtime road win against Louisville. Now they’ve got the third-best chance to reach the ACC title game (45.3%), according to ESPN Analytics. That’s because ESPN’s FPI projects Virginia to lose at Duke on Nov. 15, its toughest remaining game. Virginia is similar to Georgia Tech in that it’s unlikely to face any ranked conference opponents the rest of the season, but it doesn’t have a big-time nonconference opponent to help compensate for that. So if the Hoos don’t win the ACC, that Week 2 loss at NC State could come back to haunt them as a two-loss conference runner-up. Virginia fans should be cheering for FSU to run the table because the more the Noles win, the better that Sept. 26 win against them looks.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Miami
On the cusp: Georgia Tech
Work to do: Virginia
Would be out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big 12
Spotlight: BYU. The undefeated Cougars are here because they’re on a collision course with Texas Tech to play for the Big 12 title. According to ESPN Analytics, BYU has the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 championship game (43%) behind the Red Raiders (67.3%). This will get settled on the field before then, as those teams play each other Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. It’s currently the only game on the Cougars’ schedule that ESPN’s FPI gives them less than a 50% chance to win. Even if BYU loses that game, if it’s the Cougars’ only loss, they could face Texas Tech again in the league championship. BYU would lock up a spot with the Big 12 title, but two losses to the Red Raiders would likely knock them out as the conference runner-up. That depends, though, on how many Big 12 opponents are ranked by the selection committee.
The enigma: Arizona State. The close road loss to a much-improved Mississippi State team isn’t as bad as it might have seemed (though the Bulldogs have had a dose of reality with back-to-back losses to Tennessee and Texas A&M). The Sun Devils have won three straight games since that Sept. 6 loss, knocking off Baylor and TCU to reposition themselves near the top of the Big 12 standings again. The question is whether the defending conference champs are good enough to repeat. The season-defining stretch begins Saturday at Utah, followed by home games against Texas Tech and Houston before heading to Iowa State ahead of the first CFP ranking Nov. 4. ESPN’s FPI projects ASU will lose three of those next four.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Texas Tech
On the cusp: BYU
Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, TCU, Utah
Would be out: Baylor, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, UCF, West Virginia
Independent
Would be out: Notre Dame. The Irish have a case to be the selection committee’s top two-loss team, and they’re doing everything right to make the slow climb back into the conversation. No team in the country has a better chance to win out than Notre Dame (42.2%), according to ESPN Analytics. One of the biggest criticisms of the Irish in their back-to-back season-opening losses was the defense, which had allowed Texas A&M 41 points, but Notre Dame hasn’t allowed more than 13 in each of its past two wins. Notre Dame’s toughest remaining game will be on Oct. 18 against rival USC, but the Irish get the Trojans at home. If Notre Dame can finish 10-2 it won’t be a lock, but its playoff chances will skyrocket.
Group of 5
Spotlight: Memphis. As the projected winner of the American this week, Memphis would earn the No. 12 seed at LSU’s expense. The undefeated (Memphis) Tigers have a win against a beleaguered Arkansas team that’s helping push their strength of record to No. 18 in the country — a slight edge over No. 19 South Florida, but all of the other Group of 5 contenders aren’t far behind. This will settle itself on the field, as Memphis plays South Florida on Oct. 25, Tulane on Nov. 7 and Navy on Nov. 27. Memphis still has the best chance to win the American (45.9%), according to ESPN Analytics. The Tigers also have the best chance of any Group of 5 team to reach the CFP (38.4%).
The enigma: UNLV. The Rebels are undefeated and have done something Penn State could not — beat UCLA. UNLV has the edge against Boise State following the Broncos’ second loss in Week 6, but those two teams will face each other Oct. 18 at Boise State. They’re also projected to meet again in the Mountain West Conference title game. Boise State (45.1%) still has the best chance to win the league, with UNLV (33.8%) a close second. According to ESPN Analytics, UNLV has the fifth-best chance to reach the CFP (9.5%).
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Memphis
Work to do: Navy, North Texas, Old Dominion, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Oregon
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Ole Miss
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama
No. 10 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Georgia
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Tennessee/No. 6 Alabama winner vs. No. 3 Oregon
No. 10 Texas Tech/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Indiana/No. 8 Georgia winner vs. No. 1 Miami
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