How Blue Jacket buddies Panarin, Bobrovsky changed the trajectory for the Rangers, Panthers
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Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky were dancing.
It was July 2019. The two had been teammates with the Columbus Blue Jackets, becoming close friends when Panarin was traded there from the Chicago Blackhawks in 2017. Their families are friends. Panarin is the godfather to Bobrovsky’s daughter. They take silly photos together. They celebrate holidays and vacation together — this particular dance party was in Capri.
Their dancing is extremely spirited, with both NHL players kicking their legs over their heads toward the night sky on the deck of a boat. It’s the kind of dance one expects in a moment of offseason catharsis, like when two friends sign free agent contracts worth a combined $151.5 million. The ink was still drying on Panarin’s seven-year, $81.5 million deal with the New York Rangers and Bobrovsky’s seven-year, $70 million contract with the Florida Panthers.
It’s now May 2024. Panarin and Bobrovsky aren’t speaking. There’s no animosity between the close friends, but the battle lines have been drawn: The Rangers and Panthers are playing in the Eastern Conference finals. Panarin is trying to score against his best friend in hockey, and Bobrovsky is tasked with preventing it.
At stake is a chance to play for the Stanley Cup, which Bobrovsky did last season with Florida but Panarin has yet to do in his nine-year NHL career. They are rivals now. They’ll be friends again when it’s over.
“I like how he looks at his life, how he looks at himself. Not only about hockey, but what he’s going to do after that,” Bobrovsky has said of Panarin.
“He’s an unbelievable guy, a great human,” Panarin said of Bobrovsky, via NHL.com. “We can talk about everything all day and we can say anything to each other. We can talk about good things and the not good things, and it doesn’t matter. It’s a very honest relationship.”
They are two of the most impactful players of the last decade in the NHL. Bobrovsky has more wins (354) than any other goalie since 2012-13, when he won his first Vezina Trophy. He won his second Vezina in 2016-17, the same year he was a finalist for the Hart Trophy as league MVP.
Panarin is fifth in points (781) since entering the league with the Blackhawks in 2015-16, the same season he won the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year. He’s sixth in points-per-game average (1.16) during that span. Only Nikita Kucherov is ahead of him in both categories among wingers.
In 2019, Bobrovsky and Panarin changed the trajectory of three franchises. They walked away from the Blue Jackets as free agents, and Columbus has made the playoffs just once since then. Bobrovsky solidified the Panthers’ goaltending, earning a third career Vezina nomination this season. Panarin helped the Rangers transition from a retool to top of the league this season.
As one NHL source put it: “If they don’t sign either one of those two, the Panthers and Rangers are not fighting to get into the Stanley Cup Final right now.”
AS FREE AGENCY drama often does, the Panarin and Bobrovsky saga started for the Blue Jackets a year before their contracts were up.
Reports were that Bobrovsky and Columbus were far apart on a new, long-term contract. But they were talking, which was more than could be said for Panarin and the team. He was pushing off talks.
The uncertainty of his future in the market had teams sending general manager Jarmo Kekalainen trade proposals, although few were designed to help Columbus in the present. But even if the Blue Jackets thought about moving Panarin, there was another complication: The NHL echo chamber was reverberating with talk that Panarin wanted to be a New York Ranger.
There were other teams he was considering — the New York Islanders and Panthers among them — but the Rangers were his team of choice, and that undoubtedly impacted the offers coming in for him.
Columbus fans wanted him to stay. Some even resorted to bribery: High Bank Distillery created a billboard proclaiming that Panarin would get free vodka for life should he remain with the Blue Jackets.
“I feel really good after that. I say it’s harder for me to keep talking about my free agency because I see how people want me to stay in Columbus,” he said of the billboard. “But it’s my life.”
In February, there was another wrinkle: Panarin fired agent Daniel Milstein and hired Paul Theofanous, the agent for Bobrovsky. At a media availability in Las Vegas, Panarin declared he was testing free agency that summer.
“It’s one life, and I want to test free agency,” he said, according to the Columbus Dispatch. “[They] have a chance [to sign me], but we’ll see what happens in the summer. I want to still [consider] this season and help the team win the Stanley Cup.”
The agent switch immediately sparked speculation that the two could become a “package deal” in free agency, handing a leading scorer and a franchise goaltender to some lucky team — luck in this case equating to geography and cap space, theoretically.
Hockey fans had seen this before: In 2003, star wingers and former Anaheim teammates Paul Kariya and Teemu Selanne were reunited as a package deal in Colorado, as both players were clients of agent Don Baizley.
The Blue Jackets opted not to trade either player at the deadline — Bobrovsky had a no-trade clause, Panarin did not — as Columbus was still in a playoff race.
“If they want to go and test the free agency, they’re going to want to have their best years. And that’s the best for us and the best for them,” Kekalainen said at the time. “You’re damned if you do and damned if you don’t. We’ll have a great team next year, no matter what happens.”
They’d both have great years ahead of new contracts. Panarin had 87 points in 79 games, a new career high. Bobrovsky had a .913 save percentage and an NHL-best nine shutouts. They saved their best for last, both playing a major role in the Blue Jackets’ first-round sweep of the Tampa Bay Lightning, a 128-point juggernaut and one of the best regular-season teams in NHL history.
Bobrovsky had a .931 save percentage in securing his first postseason series win. Panarin had five points in four games, outscoring every player on the Lightning in the historic upset.
The Blue Jackets would be eliminated in the following round by the Boston Bruins, officially signaling the start of an offseason of uncertainty.
At this point, it was widely assumed that Panarin was gone. Kekalainen’s big swing to keep him was an eight-year contract, which no other suitor could offer, worth more than $11 million annually. One source said the Jackets might have gone even higher to keep Panarin.
But the Blue Jackets always hoped they could hang on to Bobrovsky, logically surmising that the market for an over-30 goaltender seeking a long-term, big-money contract would be limited.
The buzz term surrounding his contract ask was “Carey Price money,” referencing the eight-year, $84 million deal with a full no-movement clause that the goaltender signed with the Montreal Canadiens in July 2017 — a contract the Habs are still paying, even as Price hasn’t played since 2021-22.
The Jackets were offering deals with a shorter term, hoping his desired contract wouldn’t materialize elsewhere. But there was, in fact, a market for Bobrovsky.
Among the most aggressive suitors for Bobrovsky were the New York Islanders. They had Ilya Sorokin eventually on the way from the KHL. Bobrovsky could have given them an elevated version of the Russian goalie tandem they eventually had with Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov.
The “package deal” rumors persisted. The NHL salary cap — then set at $81.5 million — was the primary deterrent.
“No way you can actually do that in this environment without one of the players getting shortchanged,” one NHL source said.
But teams were trying. The Islanders had $20 million in cap space at the start of free agency. Getting both Russian players would have impacted several other bits of business — re-signing Anders Lee, an eventual extension for Mathew Barzal — but it was doable for GM Lou Lamoriello, someone known for his audacity in roster building.
The Colorado Avalanche were also interested in a package deal. Their goalie coach, Jussi Parkkila, worked with Bobrovsky at St. Petersburg SKA in the KHL, and the two remained friends. They liked Bobrovsky, but they coveted Panarin. The Avalanche were offering a four-year contract that would have made Panarin the highest-paid player in the NHL, according to one source. But even with the flexibility of Nathan MacKinnon‘s cap-friendly contract at the time, they couldn’t find a way to sign both under the salary cap.
The real problem with the “package deal” is that one part of the package had aspirations to sign with one team in particular: The New York Rangers.
And the feeling was mutual.
ON FEB. 18, 2018, the Rangers’ website posted a new article titled “A Message from Glen Sather and Jeff Gorton About Our Team.”
It would be known henceforth as “The Letter.” It stated that the franchise “didn’t reach our ultimate goal of bringing the Stanley Cup back to New York.” That the Rangers would seek to get younger and more skillful; and in the process, “this may mean we lose some familiar faces, guys we all care about and respect.”
Much like how no one in “Casablanca” ever utters the phrase “play it again, Sam,” at no point does “The Letter” use the word “rebuild.” It wasn’t something the team referenced. When John Davidson left the Blue Jackets in May 2019 to rejoin the Rangers as team president, he preferred to use the term “build” when describing their plans.
They were building fast. In April 2019, the Rangers acquired the rights to defenseman Adam Fox from the Carolina Hurricanes for two draft picks. A native of Jericho, New York, Fox informed the Hurricanes he wouldn’t sign with them. It was widely speculated that Fox would eventually sign with the Rangers as an NCAA free agent anyway. He wanted to be a Ranger, and he was a Ranger.
In June 2019, the Rangers traded a first-round pick and defenseman Neal Pionk to the Winnipeg Jets for 25-year-old defenseman Jacob Trouba, who told the Jets he wasn’t signing with them. He pushed for a trade to New York so his fiancée, Kelly Tyson, could advance in her medical career. He wanted to be a Ranger, and he was a Ranger.
They drafted Finnish forward Kaapo Kakko second overall in the 2019 draft. They had goalie Igor Shesterkin and defenseman K’Andre Miller in their system.
“These are pieces that fit a puzzle, and we’re trying to get that puzzle completed the proper way as quickly as possible,” Davidson said.
The Rangers were on the right track back to contention. The question was whether their velocity synced with Panarin’s availability as a free agent. There were debates internally about whether the Rangers were ready to add a star, such as Panarin, at a considerable commitment to the salary cap.
Signing him would impact things in the short term — the Rangers bought out the contract of defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk that August to create more room — and in the long term. The Athletic reported at the time that Panarin’s signing meant forward Chris Kreider “will be dealt before he hits unrestricted free agency next July 1st.”
Ultimately, it was decided that even if the “build” wasn’t at a point where adding Panarin would make them a championship contender, the Rangers couldn’t afford to wait to be ready. What if a player of Panarin’s caliber wasn’t available then? What if there weren’t similar options on whom the Rangers could spend their money? Panarin was only 27 that summer; what if the big free agent prize was 31 years old when the Rangers were ready to do business?
“When these young players pop, he’s still going to be in his prime,” rationalized Davidson, who was president of the Blue Jackets when they acquired Panarin.
Panarin signed a seven-year, $81.5 million deal with the Rangers as free agency opened. His average annual value of $11,642,857 was the second highest in the NHL behind Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid ($12.5 million) but the highest for a winger, surpassing his former teammate Patrick Kane of the Blackhawks ($10.5 million).
Those incredible numbers aside, Panarin left money on the table to sign with the Rangers.
“I don’t think those [other] teams did anything wrong,” one NHL executive told ESPN. “I think he just wanted to be a Ranger.”
On July 2, Panarin took part in a now-iconic photoshoot on Seventh Ave., holding his No. 10 jersey in front of the Madison Square Garden marquee that welcomed him to New York.
“There was a moment where I just sat down for 10 minutes and really thought about it,” he said regarding free agency. “My heart told me that New York would be the better place for me.”
His friend Bobrovsky felt the same way about South Florida.
THE PANTHERS OFFERED Panarin the same ballpark numbers as the Rangers. They thought they had a chance at him, what with his former Blackhawks coach Joel Quenneville behind the bench — Panarin credits him with coining his “Bread Man” nickname — and the state tax benefits from playing in Florida. But ultimately, they figured he was New York-bound.
They believed Bobrovsky was more aligned with their needs and remained focused on him.
“They had some good offensive pieces. If you had to pick one or the other, they didn’t have a goaltender,” an NHL source said. “They decided on Bob, and it paid off.”
Star goalie Roberto Luongo retired at 40 years old in June 2019. Thanks to NHL cap recapture rules, the Panthers saw salary cap savings of roughly $3.5 million annually; while the Vancouver Canucks, who originally signed Luongo to a 12-year, $64 million back-diving contract in 2009, were on the hook for more.
The other shoe to drop was that of goalie James Reimer. His contract wasn’t buyout friendly, so the Panthers traded him the Hurricanes for goalie Scott Darling, whom they then bought out.
It was obvious GM Dale Tallon was clearing the decks for a run at Bobrovsky, and nearly gave him the “Carey Price money” he was looking for: seven years, $70 million and a full no-movement clause as free agency opened.
“Sergei is an elite starting goaltender who has consistently proven to be one of the best in the NHL,” Tallon said.
Florida was praised for making a big bet on a long-term goaltending solution. ESPN gave the signing a B-plus at the time.
The contract made Bobrovsky the second-highest-paid goalie in the league in average annual value and base salary. It also put an enormous weight on his shoulders as he started with the Panthers in 2019-20. Bobrovsky had a .900 save percentage, a 3.23 goals-against average and a 23-10-6 record for Florida that season. Quenneville and his Panthers teammates spoke up to support Bobrovsky during that initial season.
“Sometimes there are ups and downs, but you have to keep your focus,” Bobrovsky said at the time.
The following season, Bobrovsky saw an old acquaintance join the team: Bill Zito, assistant GM in Columbus, was named the new general manager in Florida in 2020. He called Bobrovsky before being announced, leaning on the goaltender for information and insight about his new team.
Zito also found himself having to defend Bobrovsky in light of his contract and results. “I’m not worried about him at all. He’s a really intuitive guy, really bright. He’ll figure it out. And he wants to win,” Zito told ESPN at the time.
That patience was eventually rewarded. By his third season, Bobrovsky’s save percentage ticked up to .913 and he led the NHL with 39 wins. He had a regression in the 2022-23 regular season, but no one remembers that.
What they remember is “Playoff Bob” facing a playoffs-high 639 shots, making a playoffs-high 585 saves, posting a .915 save percentage and orchestrating both the Panthers’ shocking first-round upset of Boston and their run to the Stanley Cup Final. That included a 63-save performance in a four-overtime game against the Hurricanes that lasted five hours and 44 minutes.
Since Paul Maurice took over the Panthers as head coach last season, he has witnessed Bobrovsky being more than just a franchise goalie he rolls out for playoff starts.
“Sometimes your goaltender is separate from your team, right? Nobody talks to them because they do that weird goaltender stuff,” he said. “But Bob is part of the fun and might be a driver of it in some ways. Because that’s not his natural state, because he’s a very intense man. So he has fun in the morning skates and everyone knows that ‘Bob’s good.’ I think he just enjoys the performance aspect of it.”
His performance this postseason is much different than in the Panthers’ Stanley Cup Final run last season. Bobrovsky went from facing 32.9 shots on goal per game on average in 2023 to 23.8 shots on goal in 2024, as the Panthers’ defense improved. It hasn’t always been perfect for him, but Maurice said he trusts his goalie to manage the change in volume.
“I feel that a guy that doesn’t have the experience that Bob has would’ve a difficult time doing what Sergei’s been able to do,” he said.
WHILE BOBROVSKY TOOK a little time to find his groove in South Florida, Panarin was a hit on Broadway from opening night, when he had a goal and an assist in the Rangers’ win over Winnipeg.
Panarin tallied 95 points with 32 goals in 69 games in the 2019-20 season, making him a Hart Trophy finalist for the first time in the COVID-19-truncated campaign. His points-per-60 minutes rate climbed in his second season in New York.
When deciding whether the timing was right to sign Panarin, Rangers executives had quietly targeted the 2021-22 season as the point at which they expected the franchise to turn the corner to contention again. He scored 96 points that regular season and 16 points in 20 playoff games to help the Rangers back to the 16-team tournament for the first time since 2017 and the conference final for the first time since 2015.
While Panarin was solid in 2022-23 with 92 points to lead the team, he wasn’t a happy player with the Rangers. Sources said he didn’t mesh with coach Gerard Gallant, who was let go after New York was upset in the playoffs by the New Jersey Devils. That series was also a nadir for Panarin, as he posted two assists in seven games.
“It’s mental, and I feel terrible,” he said after the season.
He took the defeat personally, recommitted himself to training in the offseason and shaved off his trademark locks in a symbolic vibe shift. The results: a new career high in goals (49) and points (120) in leading the Rangers to the Presidents’ Trophy with the league’s best regular-season record.
“I know this is a benchmark year for him, but his statistics over the last 7-8 years are incredible. There’s consistency that goes with that. This isn’t a fluke year — it’s just a really good one,” said coach Peter Laviolette, who replaced Gallant. “He’s been an elite player offensively, and this year has obviously been his best.”
As the Rangers and Panthers return to Madison Square Garden for Game 5 on Thursday night, all eyes are on Panarin and Bobrovsky again. The Rangers winger hasn’t scored a goal since Game 3 against the Hurricanes in the second round, although he has collected four assists in seven games since then.
Bobrovsky continues to battle, stopping 21 of 23 shots in Game 4 after giving up five goals in an overtime loss in Game 3. His save percentage for the playoffs is .904, but he has been there when they’ve needed him, posting a playoffs-leading .862 save percentage on high-danger chances.
One of them will play for the Stanley Cup. One of them will not.
After it’s over, when their lines of communication are no longer on mute, they’ll reconnect to talk about it.
Two rivals. Two former teammates. Two friends who have made indelible marks on their respective franchises since that fateful summer of 2019.
Forget everything you thought you knew in August.
At the midpoint of the season, Penn State has three losses, Clemson has three losses, Texas is trying to claw its way back into the playoff conversation, and undefeated Indiana is … a top five team?!
“This showed the country we’re a real team,” Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza told reporters after the Hoosiers’ 30-20 win at Oregon. “We’re not just a one-hit wonder.”
Separation has started to occur, true playoff contenders have begun to emerge through statement wins, and the battle for No. 1 is ongoing. Alabama has made a case for the selection committee’s top one-loss team, and Notre Dame has battled back after an 0-2 start to position itself as the top two-loss team.
The jockeying for top seeds, first-round byes and first-round home games continues, but Week 7’s top 12 prediction is a snapshot of who’s got the early edge if the ranking were released halfway through the season.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes now have two impressive road wins, adding Saturday’s 34-16 victory at Illinois to the Sept. 27 win at Washington. The Buckeyes have defeated three straight Big Ten opponents who are all at .500 or better, including two on the road. Miami has one road win and hasn’t left its home state yet. Ohio State’s defense has been one of the best in the country, and quarterback Julian Sayin has been one of the nation’s most efficient, mistake-free quarterbacks. The Buckeyes are a complete team, ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency — a historic trait of the selection committee’s past playoff teams. The 70-0 win against FCS Grambling, though, impacts some of that. Ohio State’s nonconference win against Texas will continue to be valuable within the committee meeting room, as the Longhorns’ win against rival Oklahoma bolsters their chance to be a CFP top 25 team.
Why they could be lower: Indiana just earned the best win in the country, and Miami still has one of the best overall résumés. The Canes were on a bye week but got another boost Friday night when South Florida hammered previously undefeated North Texas 63-36. Some committee members would argue that Miami’s win against Notre Dame is better than Ohio State’s win against Texas.
Need to know: Ohio State has more than a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Why they could be here: The selection committee typically doesn’t move teams around if they don’t play, unless it happens as a result of shuffling around them. Ohio State’s win at Illinois strengthened its résumé, and the Buckeyes were also helped by Texas beating Oklahoma. It didn’t help the Canes that Florida State picked up its third loss, this one to an unranked Pitt team. Miami’s overall body of work, though, is still worthy of consideration for the top spot. South Florida’s 63-36 lopsided win Friday night against previously undefeated North Texas further enhanced the Canes’ 49-12 drubbing of the Bulls on Sept. 13. What’s really separating Miami from Ohio State, though, is the season-opening win against Notre Dame, which has played its way back into the top 25 after winning four straight.
Why they could be higher: Miami has a case to be ranked No. 1 with wins against Notre Dame, South Florida, Florida State and Florida. The win against the Irish continues to look good after Notre Dame pulled away for a convincing win against NC State on Saturday. Entering Week 7, Miami was No. 2 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, with a slight edge over Ohio State.
Need to know: Entering Saturday, no team in the country had a better chance to win out than Miami (32.1%), according to ESPN Analytics. Miami is projected to win each of its remaining games — and none of them are likely to feature a top 25 opponent.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at SMU. This will be the first time Miami leaves its home state, and it’s not an easy trip. It’s also the last chance to make a first impression on the CFP selection committee, which will release its first of six rankings the Tuesday after this game.
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers just earned the best win in the country, beating Oregon on its home turf, where the Ducks had won 18 straight games. Indiana’s defense looked legit, and the Hoosiers have a Heisman hopeful quarterback in Mendoza. IU has now reeled off three straight wins against Big Ten opponents, including back-to-back road wins against Iowa and Oregon. The selection committee would likely hold the Hoosiers back from a higher spot right now, though, because half of their wins came against Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and FCS Indiana State.
Why they could be higher: The selection committee compares common opponents, and while the Hoosiers don’t play Ohio State during the regular season, they both played Illinois. Indiana hammered the Fighting Illini 63-10, handing coach Bret Bielema the worst loss of his career. Ohio State won with relative ease Saturday, beating Illinois 34-16, but it wasn’t the kind of jaw-dropping beatdown the Hoosiers executed.
Need to know: Indiana’s head-to-head win against Oregon impacts both the Big Ten standings and the CFP seeding process. If IU’s only loss were to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game, the Hoosiers could still finish in the top four and earn a first-round bye because those top four seeds are no longer reserved for conference champions. This was the only game on Indiana’s schedule the Hoosiers weren’t favored to win.
Toughest remaining game: Geez. Nov. 1 at Maryland is suddenly the biggest looming obstacle. The Terps are a respectable 4-2 and have lost their past two games by a combined seven points. The Nov. 8 trip to Penn State is a shadow of the test it once appeared to be after the Nittany Lions have lost three straight, reaching a new low with Saturday’s loss to Northwestern.
Why they could be here: The Aggies eventually pulled away from a stingy Florida defense to remain undefeated and with a lead in the SEC race. The Aggies and Ole Miss are the only undefeated teams remaining in their conference, but Texas A&M entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric — ahead of both Miami and Ohio State. The Week 3 win at Notre Dame continues to elevate the Aggies’ résumé, but it’s the only road win so far.
Why they could be lower: Some selection committee members could give Alabama more credit for three straight wins against ranked opponents, including two on the road. Texas A&M has only one win against a ranked opponent, and wins against UTSA and Utah State don’t help much.
Need to know: The Aggies are about to enter their season-defining stretch of three straight road games (Arkansas, LSU and Missouri). If Texas A&M loses a game, it will also likely lose the debate with one-loss Alabama if it hasn’t already.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. The Longhorns might have had a turning point Saturday in their win against rival Oklahoma. If Texas can continue to improve offensively, it could be one of the most complete teams the Aggies face in the second half of the season.
Why they could be here: The Tide earned a second road win against a previously undefeated team, this time escaping Missouri to remain undefeated in the SEC. Alabama has now won five straight games since its season-opening loss at Florida State, including three straight against ranked and previously undefeated SEC teams. That résumé combined with the evident growth of quarterback Ty Simpson gives the Tide the strongest case to be the committee’s highest-ranked one-loss team. Heading into Saturday, the only other one-loss team that came close to the Tide in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric was Illinois, and the Fighting Illini lost to Ohio State in Week 7.
Why they could be lower: Ole Miss wasn’t pretty Saturday against Washington State, but the Rebels are still undefeated and Bama’s not. Plus, Alabama’s loss is now to a three-loss Florida State after the Noles lost to Pitt.
Need to know: The selection committee considers injuries to key players, and Alabama had a few scares Saturday. Receiver Derek Meadows appeared to be knocked unconscious in the first quarter, and coach Kalen DeBoer later said Meadows suffered a concussion. Running back Jam Miller, who had 136 yards in the Tide’s win against Vandy, also suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Auburn. The Tigers gave Georgia fits Saturday night and controlled the first half. They’ll have home-field advantage in the Iron Bowl, where anything can happen.
Why they could be here: The Rebels were underwhelming after a bye week and fortunate to beat Washington State at home 24-21. The committee pays attention to how teams win, and the Rebels trailed 14-10 late in the third quarter. Still, Ole Miss has wins against Tulane, which is in the running for the Group of 5 playoff spot, and the committee will continue to reward the Sept. 27 home win against LSU. The Rebels also have a budding star in quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who accounted for three total touchdowns against the Cougars on Saturday.
Why they could be lower: Georgia State, Kentucky and Arkansas are a combined 5-12 and unranked, and the win against the Wildcats is the Rebels’ lone road win.
Need to know: Ole Miss has back-to-back road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma looming, what’s likely to be its last games against ranked opponents. If the Rebels were to lose both, the rest of their schedule could raise concerns with some committee meeting members. Ole Miss needs to find a statement road win this month to help avoid that debate.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Georgia. The Bulldogs found a way to beat a gritty Auburn team on the road and are looking better than the Sooners right now.
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs were outplayed by Auburn in the first half but found a way to win on the road against a decent team that had a bye week to prepare. Georgia remains one of the country’s top one-loss teams but will be stuck behind Alabama in the committee meeting room because of the head-to-head tiebreaker as long as their records are comparable. Georgia could also be ahead of Oregon because the Bulldogs’ lone loss was in overtime on the road, while Oregon lost at home Saturday to IU.
Why they could be lower: Georgia’s best win is against a Tennessee team that hasn’t exactly wowed anyone yet, and the Bulldogs needed overtime to do it. Texas Tech is still undefeated, and some committee members could reward it for that ahead of both Georgia and Oregon.
Need to know: Georgia’s two best remaining chances to impress the selection committee will be Saturday against Ole Miss and in the regular-season finale against Georgia Tech. If Georgia beats the Jackets, it’s still possible they could have a win against the eventual ACC champs.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. Ole Miss. If the Rebels play like they did in their win against LSU — a complete game — they’ll give Georgia trouble.
Why they could be here: The Ducks faced their toughest opponent to date and lost at home to Indiana, a significant setback in the Big Ten race but hardly a dagger in their CFP hopes. The bigger problem is the lack of a true statement win, as the Sept. 27 double overtime win at Penn State has been significantly devalued following the three-loss Nittany Lions’ unraveling. A win against FCS Montana State isn’t going to impress the committee, nor will a win against an Oklahoma State team that fired its head coach. Oregon’s best win so far is at 4-2 Northwestern, which also beat Penn State. Indiana’s defense also gave Oregon its biggest challenge of the season, holding the Ducks to a season-low 20 points.
Why they could be lower: Oregon didn’t exactly pass the eye test against better competition, as quarterback Dante Moore threw two interceptions and was sacked six times. Oregon has three pick-sixes this season, its most in a season since 2018. Oregon was just 3-of-14 on third downs and was held to 81 rushing yards.
Need to know: That might have been Oregon’s last chance during the regular season to impress the selection committee with a win against a ranked opponent. If the Ducks run the table and finish as a one-loss team — which they should barring an upset — that could come back to haunt them on Selection Day. Another one-loss team like Alabama that has multiple wins against CFP top 25 teams will get the edge in a debate. That doesn’t mean their playoff hopes are in any danger, but it could mean the difference between hosting a first-round home game and traveling.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Washington. The Ducks also have a tricky matchup Nov. 22 against USC but will have home-field advantage. Ending the season on the road against a respectable Washington team after a tough game against the Trojans is more difficult than it appears.
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders have gained traction and legitimized their place in the playoff with three straight convincing wins against Big 12 opponents with winning records. Entering Week 7, Texas Tech was ranked No. 8 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, which gave the average top 25 opponent a 44.1% chance to achieve the same undefeated record against the same opponents. The Red Raiders have the best chance to reach the Big 12 title game and win it, which would guarantee them a spot in the field.
Why they could be lower: Texas Tech’s weak nonconference schedule includes a win against FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff (2-3), Kent State (2-4) and Oregon State (0-7). Their best win is Sept. 20 at Utah, which isn’t as impressive as most of the other contenders’ statement wins.
Need to know: Backup quarterback storylines have been integral to the CFP selection process — for better or for worse, depending on the situation — and the Red Raiders have proved on multiple occasions now that they can win without injured starter Behren Morton. He was hurt again Saturday and left the game against Kansas, but the Big 12’s third-leading passer also had to leave against Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Utah with injuries. The committee will appreciate the fact that Texas Tech has a No. 2 capable of winning in Will Hammond.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 vs. BYU. The Cougars and Red Raiders could face each other in the Big 12 championship game, but they have to face each other during the regular season first.
Why they could be here: Even the speedy return of injured quarterback John Mateer wasn’t enough to overcome a stingy Texas defense Saturday, as the Sooners were held to just six points. Oklahoma’s Week 2 win against Michigan is still one of the better nonconference wins in the country, though, and helps separate the Sooners from some other teams with weaker nonconference lineups. The selection committee also respects wins against opponents with .500 records or better, and the Sept. 20 win against Auburn would still be favorable in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be lower: Texas was the best defense OU has faced so far, and it exposed some weaknesses teams like Illinois State, Temple and Kent State couldn’t. Mateer threw three interceptions and completed 20 of 38 pass attempts just 17 days after surgery on his right hand.
Need to know: Oklahoma entered Saturday with the most difficult remaining schedule in the FBS, according to ESPN Analytics. The Sooners travel to South Carolina on Saturday before ending the season against what should be five straight ranked opponents.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Tide have won five straight and will have a bye week and home-field advantage.
Why they could be here: The Tigers’ lone loss is to an undefeated Ole Miss on the road, and LSU’s defense continues to be one of the best in the country. LSU held off a pesky South Carolina team Saturday, limiting the Gamecocks to just one touchdown.
Why they could be lower: Wins against Clemson and Florida aren’t going to separate LSU from other one-loss teams, and the Tigers have struggled to consistently play complete football in all three phases. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier threw two interceptions against South Carolina, and the Tigers also lost a fumble. LSU is still searching for a statement win.
Need to know: One of the statistics the selection committee has historically leaned on is called “relative scoring defense,” which is something it would probably look at with LSU. How are the Tigers doing defensively against teams that typically score more than they allow? Those tests are yet to come, but the 24-19 loss to Ole Miss likely didn’t help that particular metric. If LSU is going to lean on its elite defense, it has to show up against the best offenses.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. It’s not just that it’s Bama — it’s the third straight game against a ranked opponent, as LSU faces Vandy and Texas A&M before the Tide. If LSU loses to one of them, it will be under tremendous pressure to win in Tuscaloosa.
Why they could be here: The Vols were fortunate to beat a 2-4 Arkansas team at home — one week after they escaped Mississippi State with an overtime win. It hasn’t been pretty, and Tennessee is still searching for a statement win. They’ve got an FCS win, a lopsided win against UAB and a decent nonconference win against a 3-3 Syracuse team that was more formidable with its starting quarterback in the lineup at the time they played them. That’s a detail the selection committee would consider.
Why they could be lower: Tennessee hasn’t looked like an elite team, struggling to stop the run and racking up penalties. The Vols were tied at 17 at the half with a team that recently fired its head coach. The committee has overlooked a lack of statement wins before, but typically that forgiveness happens when a contender is controlling games — not squeaking by unranked teams.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, the Vols would be bumped out to make room for the fifth-highest ranked conference champion, which is guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. Right now that team — the American champion — would be ranked outside the top 12.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Alabama. Tennessee’s lone loss was in overtime to Georgia, which also lost to Alabama.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Indiana
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Alabama
No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Georgia
No. 9 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Alabama winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 LSU/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Indiana
No. 10 Oklahoma/No. 7 Georgia winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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