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Donald Trump has become the first former US president to be criminally convicted – but what could the historic verdict mean for his ongoing election campaign?

A jury in New York deliberated for nine-and-a-half hours before unanimously agreeing Trump is guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records to commit election fraud.

The former president covered up a $130,000 (£102,000) payment to porn star Stormy Daniels as part of a “hush money” scheme to bury stories he thought might hurt his presidential campaign in 2016.

The case was the first of four criminal cases against Trump to go to trial, and marked the first time a former president has faced criminal charges.

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Trump: ‘This is a rigged trial’

It is unlikely the remaining three cases will go to trial before the November election.

With the hush money verdict in, Sky News takes a look at what could happen to Trump’s quest for reelection now he’s been convicted.

Donald Trump looks on during his criminal trial at New York State Supreme Court.
Pic: Reuters
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Pic: Reuters

Can Trump still run for president?

Yes. The US Constitution sets out three main requirements for being eligible to become president – and none of them reference being a convicted criminal.

Candidates must have been born in the US, be over 35, and have lived in the US for at least 14 years.

“Nothing prevents him from running for president and being elected, even if he is in jail at the time of the election,” Elizabeth Wydra, president of the progressive Constitutional Accountability Centre, told the LA Times.

That’s despite people with a felony conviction – a crime that can be punished by a year or more in prison – not being allowed to vote in some states.

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What happens next for Donald Trump?

But what if he were to be elected while in prison?

This is a little more complicated, firstly because it’s not clear if Trump will be sent to prison following the guilty verdict.

The convictions are class E felonies in New York, the lowest tier in the state, with each carrying a maximum sentence of four years.

In choosing the sentence, the judge will have to take into account Trump’s age – he’s now 77 – his lack of previous criminal convictions, and the fact that the case involves a non-violent crime.

Even if the judge, Justice Juan Merchan, opts for a custodial sentence, it’s likely Trump will appeal the guilty verdict – and expect to be on bail until that hearing.

Stormy Daniels in Manhattan in 2018. Pic: AP
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Stormy Daniels in Manhattan in 2018. Pic: AP

That process could go all the way to the Court of Appeals, and, importantly for Trump, could drag on for months – possibly even past November’s election.

If Trump were to be elected while serving time, the situation becomes more complicated still, with even constitutional experts unsure.

“It’s just guessing,” Erwin Chemerinsky, a constitutional law expert at the University of California, Berkeley, told the New York Times earlier this year.

“We’re so far removed from anything that’s ever happened.”

Justice Juan Merchan scolds witness Robert Costello as he momentarily clears the courtroom during former U.S. President Donald Trump's criminal trial on charges that he falsified business records to conceal money paid to silence porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016, in Manhattan state court in New York City, U.S. May 20, 2024 in this courtroom sketch. REUTERS/Jane Rosenberg
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A court sketch of Justice Juan Merchan. Pic: Reuters

Could power transfer to the vice president?

In theory, experts say, there is nothing to stop Trump from taking office, even if he were to be behind bars.

There is a provision – the 25th Amendment of the US Constitution – which provides a process to transfer authority to the vice president if the president is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office”.

However, that would require the approval of the vice president and members of Trump’s cabinet – who will have been hand-picked by him and will no doubt be loyalists.

It is more likely, experts say, that Trump would look to sue for his release or seek a pardon to allow him to govern.

Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump attends a rally ahead of the New Hampshire primary election in Manchester, New Hampshire, U.S. January 20, 2024. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
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Pic: Reuters


How will the guilty verdict impact the election?

Opinion polls carried out prior to Thursday’s verdict suggested it could pose a significant political danger for Trump.

In an April poll, one in four Republicans said they would not vote for Trump if he was found guilty in a criminal trial.

In the same survey, 60% of independents said they would not vote for Trump if he was convicted of a crime.

What do the experts say about its potential impact?

Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, said he doubted a quarter of Republicans would actually shun Trump – but he said even a small number being turned off by a guilty verdict could help Joe Biden in a close election.

He said the nature of the New York case, which was brought by a Democratic prosecutor and relies on untested legal strategies, would help Trump and fellow Republicans frame a guilty verdict as a political hit job.

“If I were trying to design a court case that would be easy for Republicans to dismiss as a partisan witch hunt, I would design exactly the case that’s being brought in New York,” he said.

Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the media, as his criminal trial over charges that he falsified business records to conceal money paid to silence porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016 continues, at Manhattan state court in New York City, U.S., April 22, 2024. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/Pool
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Donald Trump speaks to the media during his trial. Pic: Reuters

Republican consultant Tricia McLaughlin said she thought a guilty verdict would have a psychological impact on Trump because he hates losing.

It would also likely mean financial resources are diverted to legal bills because he would almost certainly appeal, she added.

Analyst Bill Galston said he didn’t expect a guilty verdict would have a significant impact on the presidential race.

“In the end, this amounts to lying about sex. I think the view probably of the majority of Americans is that everybody lies about sex,” said Mr Galston, who has worked on Democratic presidential campaigns.

Read more from Sky News:
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Donald Trump booed at Libertarian Party convention

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Have convicted criminals run for president before?

At least two candidates with criminal convictions have run for president in the past – although neither successfully.

Eugene Debs ran for president from prison in 1920, getting almost a million votes without ever hitting the campaign trail.

In 1992, Lyndon LaRouche also ran from behind bars while serving a 15-year sentence for mail fraud. He received about 26,000 votes.

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Texas floods: The victims and people missing that have been named so far

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Texas floods: The victims and people missing that have been named so far

Details of those who have died and those who are missing after US flash floods are slowly emerging – with several young girls among those unaccounted for.

At least 69 people have died from the flooding in Texas, with an unknown number of people – including 11 girls and a counsellor from Camp Mystic in Kerr County – still missing.

As much as 10ins (25cm) of heavy rain fell in just a few hours overnight in central Kerr County on Friday, causing the banks of the Guadalupe River to burst at around 4am local time.

Tributes to those who died, and appeals for those who are still missing, are now being shared.

A map showing the Guadalupe River in Kerr County, which burst from heavy rain and caused flash flooding
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Officials said 27 girls from Camp Mystic were reported missing after the flash floods in Texas

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Texas searches for missing children

Who are the victims?

Renee Smajstrla, eight

Renee Smajstrla, 8, died in the flash floods at Camp Mystic, Texas. Pic: Family handout
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Renee Smajstrla. Pic: Family handout

Renee’s uncle Shawn Salta confirmed the eight-year-old had died, and said she was one of 700 children staying at Camp Mystic.

“Renee has been found and while not the outcome we prayed for, the social media outreach likely assisted the first responders in helping to identify her so quickly,” he said.

“We are thankful she was with her friends and having the time of her life, as evidenced by this picture from yesterday.

“She will forever be living her best life at Camp Mystic.”

Sarah Marsh, eight

Sarah Marsh, 8, died in the flash floods at Camp Mystic, Texas. Pic: Family handout
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Sarah Marsh. Pic: Family handout

Mountain Brook mayor Stewart Welch confirmed the death of eight-year-old Sarah, from Alabama, who was a pupil at Cherokee Bend Elementary.

“This is an unimaginable loss for her family, her school, and our entire community,” he said. “Sarah’s passing is a sorrow shared by all of us, and our hearts are with those who knew and loved her.

“As we grieve alongside the Marsh family, we also remember the many others affected by this tragedy.”

Eloise Peck and Lila Bonner, both nine

Lila Bonner (L), 9, and Eloise Peck, 9, both died in the flash floods at Camp Mystic, Texas. Pic: Family handout
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Lila Bonner (left) and Eloise Peck. Pic: Family handout

Eloise’s mother Missy Peck told local broadcaster FOX4 that her daughter and Lila were best friends and cabinmates at Camp Mystic.

Writing about her daughter on Instagram, Ms Peck said: “She lost her life in the tragic flooding… our family is grieving and processing this unimaginable loss together.”

Lila’s family told NBC Dallas Fort Worth, a local affiliate network of Sky’s US partner network, that they were in “unimaginable grief”, and said: “We ache with all who loved her.”

Janie Hunt, nine

Janie Hunt, 9, from Dallas, died from the flooding at Camp Mystic, Texas SQUARE
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Janie Hunt

Janie’s family confirmed her death to a reporter from NBC Dallas Fort Worth, who said “her mother tells me she’s devastated”.

Richard ‘Dick’ Eastland, owner of Camp Mystic

Richard ‘Dick’ Eastland, owner of Camp Mystic. Pic: Family handout
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Richard ‘Dick’ Eastland, owner of Camp Mystic. Pic: Family handout

Kerr County judge Rob Kelly told the Washington Post that Mr Eastland, who owned the camp died in a helicopter on the way to a Houston hospital.

Local outlet The Kerrville Daily Times reported he was killed while trying to save the girls from the flash floods.

“It doesn’t surprise me at all that his last act of kindness and sacrifice was working to save the lives of campers,” guest columnist Paige Sumner said in the Daily Times’ tribute to Mr Eastland.

Blair and Brooke Harber, 13 and 11

Blair, 13, and Brooke Harber, 11. Pic: Family handout
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Blair and Brooke Harber. Pic: Family handout

RJ Harber told CNN his daughters died during flooding in Kerr County, saying Blair “was a gifted student and had a generous kind heart”.

He added that Brooke “was like a light in any room, people gravitated to her and she made them laugh and enjoy the moment”.

He also said both his parents were still missing.

Jane Ragsdale, owner of Heart O’ the Hills camp

Jane Ragsdale. Pic: Heart O’ the Hills SQUARE
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Jane Ragsdale. Pic: Heart O’ the Hills

On Heart O’ the Hills’s website, the camp confirmed it was “right in the path of the flood” along the Guadalupe River.

While there were no campers in residence, Jane Ragsdale died. The camp said: “We at the camp are stunned and deeply saddened by Jane’s death.

“She embodied the spirit of Heart O’ the Hills and was exactly the type of strong, joyful woman that the camp aimed to develop with the girls entrusted to us each summer.”

Julian Ryan, 27

Julian Ryan, 27 -  Died trying to save family. Pic: GoFundMe SQUARE
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Julian Ryan. Pic: GoFundMe

Relatives of Mr Ryan told local news broadcaster KHOU 11 that he died saving his family from floodwaters in Texas Hill County.

They described how he tried to smash a window to help them escape the rising water, but it cut his arm and he bled out before help could arrive.

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Who is still missing?

Penny, Emlyn, and Madelyn ‘Emmy’ Jeffrey, 11

Penny and Emlyn Jeffrey. Pic: Family handout
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Penny and Emlyn Jeffrey. Pic: Family handout

Madelyn ‘Emmy’ Jeffrey, 11. Pic: Family handout
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Madelyn ‘Emmy’ Jeffrey. Pic: Family handout

Christin Jeffrey Jones posted on Facebook that her parents Penny and Emlyn Jeffrey are missing, as well her niece Madelyn ‘Emmy’ Jeffrey.

She said her family were in Hunt, Texas, and “were spending the night at their cabin on the river at Casa Bonita which is now completely gone”.

“We ask for continued prayers and miracles,” she said. “Please share the word.”

Charlene and Mike Harber, 74 and 76

Charlene, 74, and Mike Harber, 76. Pic: Family handout
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Charlene and Mike Harber. Pic: Family handout

RJ Harber also told CNN that his parents, Charlene and Mike Harber, are still missing.

He believes the couple have died.

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Deadly Texas floods: What were the warnings?

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Deadly Texas floods: What were the warnings?

Questions have been raised over extreme weather warnings in Texas, after heavy rain caused fatal flash floods along the Guadalupe River.

At least 51 people have died from the flooding in Texas, with an unknown number of people – including 27 girls from Camp Mystic in Kerr County – still missing.

As rescue teams continue to search for the missing, local and federal officials have come under fire over their flood preparations and about why those along the river weren’t warned of the risks sooner.

A map showing the Guadalupe River in Kerr County, which burst from heavy rain and caused flash flooding
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A map showing the Guadalupe River in Kerr County, which burst from heavy rain and caused flash flooding

Campers from Camp Waldemar embrace after arriving at a reunification area. Pic: Jason Fochtman/Houston Chronicle via AP
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Campers embrace at a reunification area. Pic: Jason Fochtman/Houston Chronicle via AP

What happened?

As much as 10ins (25cm) of heavy rain fell in just a few hours overnight in central Kerr County on Friday, causing the banks of the Guadalupe River to burst at around 4am local time.

Homes and vehicles were swept away by the downpour – equivalent to months’ worth of rain – while 27 girls staying at Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp along the river, went missing when the fast-rising floodwaters hit.

The death toll stands at:
• At least 43 people, including 15 children and 28 adults, in Kerr County,
• One person in Kendall County,
• At least four people in Travis County,
• At least two in Burnet County,
• And one person in the city of San Angelo.

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House sweeps away in flash floods

What flood warnings were there?

Private forecasting company AccuWeather said it and the National Weather Service (NWS) sent warnings about potential flash flooding hours before it began, urging people to move to higher ground and evacuate flood-prone areas.

The NWS also issued flash flood emergencies – a rare alert notifying of imminent danger – at 4.23am local time.

In a statement, AccuWeather said that “these warnings should have provided officials with ample time to evacuate camps such as Camp Mystic and get people to safety”.

It also called Texas Hill County one of the most flash-flood-prone areas of the US because of its terrain and many water crossings.

However, chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management Nim Kidd said that one NWS forecast earlier in the week had called for up to six inches of rain.

“It did not predict the amount of rain that we saw,” he said.

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Texas searches for missing children

Were they enough?

Locals have told various news agencies that while there had been phone alerts late into the night, forecasts headed into Friday evening did not predict the extreme conditions.

Christopher Flowers, who was staying at a friend’s house along the river when the flooding started, told the Reuters news agency: “What they need is some kind of external system, like a tornado warning that tells people to get out now.”

Kerrville resident Darryl Huffman told Sky’s US partner network NBC News that he did not believe the storm would pose such danger before its arrival.

“I looked out the window and it was barely sprinkling outside,” he said, “so I had no indication that the river was going to be right outside my driveway”.

People climb over debris on a bridge atop the Guadalupe River after a flash flood. Pic: AP
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People climb over debris on a bridge atop the Guadalupe River in Ingram, Texas. Pic: AP

A Sheriff's deputy pauses while searching for the missing in Hunt, Texas.Pic: AP/Julio Cortez
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A Sheriff’s deputy pauses while searching for the missing in Hunt, Texas. Pic: AP/Julio Cortez

Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at AccuWeather, said it appeared evacuations and other proactive measures could have been undertaken to reduce the risk of fatalities.

He said in a statement: “People, businesses, and governments should take action based on Flash Flood Warnings that are issued, regardless of the rainfall amounts that have occurred or are forecast.”

Separately, the NWS’s union told NBC News the agency’s offices in central Texas were well-staffed and had issued timely warnings, “giving preliminary lead times of more than three hours before warning criteria were met”.

What have officials said?

Local and federal officials have said they had not expected such an intense downpour of rain and insisted that no one saw the flood potential coming.

Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, the county’s top elected official, said: “We know we get rain. We know the river rises. But nobody saw this coming.”

“We have floods all the time. This is the most dangerous river valley in the United States,” he said, adding: “We had no reason to believe this was going to be anything like what’s happened here. None whatsoever.”

Mr Kelly separately noted that while the county considered a flood warning system along the river that would have functioned like a tornado warning siren about six or seven years ago, “the public reeled at the cost”.

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At a news conference with the Texas governor, Homeland Security secretary Kristi Noem said on Saturday that “everybody knows that the weather is extremely difficult to predict” before saying “we have all wanted more time and more warning and more alerts and more notification” from the NWS.

She said a “moderate” flood watch issued on Thursday by the NWS had not accurately predicted the extreme rainfall and said the Trump administration was working to upgrade their technology.

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott give a briefing on the flash floods in Texas. Pic: AP
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Kristi Noem and Texas governor Greg Abbott give a news briefing. Pic: AP

Will forecasting get better?

While Ms Noem said technology for the NWS would be upgraded, the White House has previously been criticised after Donald Trump‘s administration ordered 800 job cuts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – the parent organisation of the NWS.

A 30% cut to its budget is also in the pipeline, subject to approval by Congress.

Professor Costa Samaras, who worked on energy policy at the White House under President Joe Biden, said NOAA had been in the middle of developing new flood maps for neighbourhoods and that cuts to NOAA were “devastating”.

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At least 51 people killed in Texas flooding as authorities face scrutiny over response

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At least 51 people killed in Texas flooding as authorities face scrutiny over response

At least 51 people have died after heavy rain caused flash flooding, with water bursting from the banks of the Guadalupe River in Texas.

The overflowing water began sweeping into Kerr County and other areas around 4am local time on Friday, killing at least 43 people in the county.

This includes at least 15 children and 28 adults, with five children and 12 adults pending identification, Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha said at a news conference.

In nearby Kendall County, one person has died. At least four people were killed in Travis County, while at least two people died in Burnet County. Another person has died in the city of San Angelo in Tom Green County.

People comfort each other in Kerville. Pic: Jason Fochtman/Houston Chronicle via AP
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People comfort each other in Kerrville, Texas. Pic: Jason Fochtman/Houston Chronicle via AP

People stand near debris following flash flooding, in Kerrville, Texas, U.S. July 5, 2025. REUTERS/Marco Bello
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Large piles of debris in Kerrville, Texas, following the flooding. Pic: Reuters//Marco Bello

More than 700 children were staying at Camp Mystic

An unknown number of people remain missing, including 27 girls from Camp Mystic in Kerr County, a Christian summer camp along the Guadalupe River.

Rescuers have already saved hundreds of people and would work around the clock to find those still unaccounted for, Texas governor Greg Abbott said.

But as rescue teams are searching for the missing, Texas officials are facing scrutiny over their preparations and why residents and summer camps for children that are dotted along the river were not alerted sooner or told to evacuate.

More on Texas

AccuWeather said the private forecasting company and the National Weather Service (NWS) sent warnings about potential flash flooding hours before the devastation, urging people to move to higher ground and evacuate flood-prone areas.

People look at debris on the banks of the Guadalupe River after a flash flood swept through the area Saturday, July 5, 2025, in Hunt, Texas. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
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Debris on the banks of the Guadalupe River in Hunt. Pic: AP Photo/Julio Cortez

An overturned vehicle is caught in debris along the Guadalupe River after a flash flood struck the area, Friday, July 4, 2025, in Kerrville,
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An overturned vehicle is caught in debris along the Guadalupe River. Pic: AP

The NWS later issued flash flood emergencies – a rare alert notifying of imminent danger.

“These warnings should have provided officials with ample time to evacuate camps such as Camp Mystic and get people to safety,” AccuWeather said in a statement that called Texas Hill County one of the most flash-flood-prone areas of the US because of its terrain and many water crossings.

But one NWS forecast earlier in the week had called for up to six inches of rain, said Nim Kidd, chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management.”It did not predict the amount of rain that we saw,” he said.

Officials said they had not expected such an intense downpour of rain, equivalent to months’ worth in a few short hours, insisting that no one saw the flood potential coming.

One river near Camp Mystic rose 22ft in two hours, according to Bob Fogarty, meteorologist with the NWS’s Austin/San Antonio office. The gauge failed after recording a level of 29.5ft.

A wall is missing on a building at Camp Mystic in Hunt, Texas. Pic: AP/Julio Cortez
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A wall is missing on a building at Camp Mystic in Hunt, Texas. Pic: AP/Julio Cortez

Bedding items are seen outside sleeping quarters at Camp Mystic. Pic: AP/Julio Cortez
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Bedding items are seen outside sleeping quarters at Camp Mystic. Pic: AP/Julio Cortez

A Sheriff's deputy pauses while searching for the missing in Hunt, Texas.Pic: AP/Julio Cortez
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A Sheriff’s deputy pauses while searching for the missing in Hunt, Texas.Pic: AP/Julio Cortez

“People, businesses, and governments should take action based on Flash Flood Warnings that are issued, regardless of the rainfall amounts that have occurred or are forecast,” Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at AccuWeather, said in a statement.

“We know we get rain. We know the river rises,” said Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, the county’s top elected official. “But nobody saw this coming.”

Judge Kelly said the county considered a flood warning system along the Guadalupe River that would have functioned like a tornado warning siren about six or seven years ago, before he was elected, but that the idea never got off the ground because “the public reeled at the cost”.

Pic: Reuters
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A drone view of Comfort, Texas. Pic: Reuters

Officials comb through the banks of the Guadalupe River in Hunt, Texas. Pic: AP/Julio Cortez
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Officials comb through the banks of the Guadalupe River in Hunt, Texas. Pic: AP/Julio Cortez

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem was asked during a news conference on Saturday whether the flash flood warnings came through quickly enough: “We know that everyone wants more warning time, and that is why we are working to upgrade the technologies that have been neglected for far too long.”

Presidential cuts to climate and weather organisations have also been criticised in the wake of the floods after Donald Trump‘s administration ordered 800 job cuts at the science and climate organisation NOAA, the parent organisation of the NWS, which predicts and warns about extreme weather like the Texas floods.

A 30% cut to its budget is also in the pipeline, subject to approval by Congress.

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Professor Costa Samaras, who worked on energy policy at the White House under President Joe Biden, said NOAA had been in the middle of developing new flood maps for neighbourhoods and that cuts to NOAA were “devastating”.

“Accurate weather forecasts matter. FEMA and NOAA matter. Because little girls’ lives matter,” said Frank Figliuzzi, a national security and intelligence analyst at Sky’s US partner organisation NBC News.

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