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Life comes at you fast if you are the person responsible for maintaining the shareholder register at NatWest.

Until last week, it was hoped that the bank would be at the centre of Jeremy Hunt‘s plans to get millions more Britons investing in the stock market.

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The chancellor first said last year that he hoped a new generation of retail investors could “engage with public markets” by buying some or all of the government’s remaining shareholding in NatWest.

With a nod to Margaret Thatcher’s successful privatisations in the late 1980s – which saw more than 10 million Britons become shareholders for the first time via stakes in businesses like British Telecom, British Airways and Rolls-Royce – the chancellor conjured up the spirit of the “If you see Sid, tell him” advertising campaign that, in autumn 1986, convinced more than 1.5 million Britons to buy shares of British Gas.

He told MPs in November: “It’s time to get Sid investing again.”

Those plans have now been scuppered by the unexpectedly early general election and the retail offer was formally shelved last weekend.

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Determined to return to private ownership

Today, though, brought evidence that the government remains determined to return NatWest to private ownership.

It announced it has sold £1.24bn worth of shares in the lender back to NatWest itself – taking its stake down from nearly 26% to 22.5% in the process.

That stake, at its peak, had stood at nearly 84% after Gordon Brown‘s government was forced to rescue the lender – then called Royal Bank of Scotland – in 2008 at the height of the global financial crisis.

The government took its stake below 30% – which is deemed to be a controlling shareholding – with a sale to institutional investors in March this year.

The latest sale, carried out off-market, was at a price of 316p-a-share – a smidgen below NatWest’s closing price of 316.2p on Thursday night. It is the fourth such buy-back by NatWest of its shares from the government since 2021.

‘Important milestone’

Paul Thwaite, NatWest’s chief executive, said: “This transaction represents another important milestone for NatWest Group, building on recent momentum in the reduction of HM Treasury’s stake in the bank.

“We believe it is a positive use of capital for the bank and for our shareholders and represents further progress against the ambition to return NatWest Group to full private ownership.

“Our focus remains on delivering for our customers which will, in turn, deliver for our shareholders and the UK economy.”
There are a few observations to make here.

The first is that, attractive as it would have been to get a new generation of retail shareholders investing in the UK stock market, selling down the government’s stake in NatWest in this way delivers better value for money for taxpayers.

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That is because the government would have been forced to sell its NatWest shares at a significant discount to the prevailing market price to encourage retail investors to pony up.

It would also probably have had to have offered other incentives, such as bonus shares for those shareholders retaining their stake for a year, to avoid those investors from ‘stagging’ the issue, in other words, buying the shares at a discount and then selling them immediately to lock in a modest profit.

Likely a shareholder for years but more sales in the coming weeks

The second observation is that the government – whoever wins the general election – is likely to remain a shareholder in NatWest for some time to come.

While a retail share offer might not necessarily have represented good value to taxpayers, it would certainly have accelerated the bank’s full return to private ownership. Mr Hunt has pledged to return NatWest to full private ownership by the end of 2026.

And a third is that this latest move does not preclude further share sales in coming weeks.

The Treasury has been using three ways to reduce its stake.

One is via direct sales to NatWest itself. This is unlikely to happen again for a while because it needs to be approved by NatWest shareholders – and the most recent authorisation has just been fulfilled by the latest purchase.

The second is via sales of large portions of the government stake to shareholders – which requires a sign-off by ministers and is therefore unlikely during the election campaign.

The third is via the Treasury’s existing sales plan, under which small quantities of stock shares are released into the market, which is probably the way forward for now.

The government’s exit via this latter route will undoubtedly be aided by the rally in NatWest shares which, since the start of the year, are up by just over 43%. The lender recently published its best annual results since the rescue of the old RBS.

What does Labour make of it?

What is not yet clear is the attitude that a future Labour government might take on the stake in NatWest.

It was always suspected when Jeremy Corbyn was Labour leader that, should he become prime minister, he would have retained the shareholding.

Sir Keir Starmer, by contrast, is assumed to be sympathetic to selling down the stake just as the current government is.

As Gary Greenwood, banking analyst at the investment bank Shore Capital, told clients earlier this week: “Should the Labour Party come to power, as widely anticipated, then such plans [for a retail share offer] are likely to be revisited and possibly amended.

“That said, whoever wins the election will still be looking to reduce and ultimately exit the Government’s stake in NatWest, in our view, so the sell down is still likely to continue in one form or another.”

Mr Thwaite and his colleagues would doubtless like to see NatWest returned to private ownership as quickly as possible so they can get on with running the bank and restoring its fortunes.

It would be helpful for all concerned were Mr Hunt’s shadow, Rachel Reeves, to make it clear where Labour stands on the timing of this.

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More than a quarter of cars sold in August were electric vehicles – SMMT figures

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More than a quarter of cars sold in August were electric vehicles - SMMT figures

A greater proportion of electric cars were sold last month than at any point this year, industry data shows.

More than a quarter (26.5%) of cars sold in August were electric vehicles (EVs), according to figures from motor lobby group the Society for Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

It’s the largest amount of sales since December 2024 and comes as the government introduced financial incentives to help drivers make the move to zero tailpipe emission cars.

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The full suite of grants were not available during the month, however, with a further 35 models eligible for £1,500 off early in September.

Throughout August more models became eligible for price reductions, meaning more consumers could be tempted to purchase an EV in September.

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New EV grants to drive sales came into effect in July

The increased percentage of EV sales came despite an overall 2% drop in buying, compared to a year earlier, in what is typically the quietest month for car purchases.

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What are the rules?

The numbers suggest the car industry could be on course to meet the government’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate, the thinktank Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has said.

It stipulates that new petrol and diesel cars may not be sold from 2030.

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Amid pressure from industry, the government altered the mandate in April to allow for hybrid vehicles, which are powered by both fuel and a battery, to be sold until 2035.

Sales of new petrol and diesel vans are also permitted until 2035.

Until then, 28% of cars sold must be electric this year, with the share rising to 33% in 2026, 38% in 2027 and 66% in 2029, the final year before the new combustion engine ban.

Manufacturers face fines for not meeting the targets.

Last year, the objective of making 22% of all car sales purely EVs was surpassed, with EVs comprising 24.3% of the total sold in 2024.

Why?

The increased portion of EV sales can be attributed to increased model choice and discounting, on top of the government reductions, the SMMT said.

Savings from running an electric car are also enticing motorists, the ECIU said. “Demand for used EVs is already surging because they can offer £1,600 a year in savings in owning and running costs.”

“This matters for regular families as the pipeline of second-hand EVs is dependent on new car sales, which hit the used market after around three to four years.

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Firms cut jobs at fastest pace since 2021, Bank of England data shows

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Firms cut jobs at fastest pace since 2021, Bank of England data shows

Businesses have cut jobs at the fastest pace in almost four years, according to a closely-watched Bank of England survey which also paints a worrying picture for employment and wage growth ahead.

Its Decision Maker Panel (DMP) data, taken from chief financial officers across 2,000 companies, showed employment levels over the three months to August were 0.5% lower than in the same period a year earlier.

It amounted to the worst decline since autumn 2021 as firms grappled with the implementation of budget measures in the spring that raised their national insurance contributions and minimum wage levels, along with business rates for many.

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The start of April also witnessed the escalation in Donald Trump’s global trade war which further damaged sentiment, especially among exporters to the United States.

The survey showed no improvement in hiring intentions in the tough economy, with companies expecting to reduce employment levels by 0.5% over the coming year.

That was the weakest outlook projection since October 2020.

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At the same time, the panel also showed that participants planned to raise their own prices by 3.8% over the next 12 months. That is in line with the current rate of inflation.

The news on wages was no better as the central forecast was for an average rise of 3.6% – down from the 4.6% seen over the past 12 months.

If borne out, it would mean private sector wages rising below the rate of inflation – erasing household and business spending power.

The Bank of England has been relying on data such as the DMP amid a lack of confidence in official employment figures produced by the Office for National Statistics due to low response rates.

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August: Tax rises playing ’50:50′ role in rising inflation

Bank governor Andrew Bailey told a committee of MPs on Wednesday that he was now less sure over the pace of interest rate cuts ahead owing to stubborn inflation in the economy.

The consumer prices index measure is expected to peak at 4% next month – double the Bank’s target rate – from the current level.

Higher interest rates only add to company costs and make them less likely to borrow for investment purposes.

At the same time, employers are fearful that the coming budget, set for late November, may contain no relief.

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Why aren’t we hearing about the budget ‘black hole’?

Sky News revealed on Thursday how the head of the banking sector’s main lobby group had written to the chancellor to warn that any additional levy on bank profits, as suggested by a think-tank last week, would only damage her search for growth.

Rachel Reeves is believed to be facing a black hole in the public finances amounting to £20bn-£40bn.

Tax rises are believed to be inevitable, given her commitment to fiscal rules concerning borrowing by the end of the parliament.

Heightened costs associated with servicing such debts following recent bond sell-offs across Western economies have made more borrowing even less palatable.

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Why did UK debt just get more expensive?

Ms Reeves is expected to raise some form of wealth tax, while other speculation has included a shake-up of council tax.

She has consistently committed not to target working people but the Bank of England data, and official ONS figures, would suggest that businesses have responded to 2024 budget measures by cutting jobs since April, with hospitality and retail among the worst hit.

Commenting on the data, Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: “The DMP survey shows stubborn wage and price pressures despite falling employment, continuing to suggest that structural economic changes and supply weakness are keeping inflation high.

“The MPC [monetary policy committee of the Bank of England] will have to be cautious, so we remain comfortable assuming no more rate cuts this year.”

“That said, the increasing signs of labour market weakness suggest dovish risks,” he concluded.

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Bank lobby chief warns Reeves over budget tax raid

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Bank lobby chief warns Reeves over budget tax raid

The head of Britain’s main banking lobby group has warned the chancellor against a budget raid on the industry, arguing that it would undermine her aim of delivering sustainable economic growth.

In a letter to Rachel Reeves seen by Sky News, David Postings, the chief executive of UK Finance, said renewed speculation about increases to banks’ tax burden risked undermining their international competitiveness.

Mr Postings’ letter was sent earlier this week, just days after shares in the largest UK banks – including Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group and NatWest Group – slid amid fears of a renewed tax raid on the sector.

“Both the financial services sector and the wider investor community have… strongly welcomed your clear emphasis – most recently through the Leeds Reforms – on ensuring that the UK’s financial services sector has the right environment to be internationally competitive,” he told the chancellor.

“As you said in launching those reforms, it is vital to deliver certainty for banks operating here and ensure that UK banks can compete internationally and drive economic growth.

A report published last week by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) think-tank proposed that the chancellor use her November budget to impose an additional levy on bank profits – prompting an investor sell-off of shares in the main UK lenders.

Anxiety about higher personal and corporate taxes has gained momentum in recent weeks because of the weak outlook for the public finances, with Ms Reeves needing to fill a multibillion pound black hole to ensure the government meets its own fiscal rules.

Treasury insiders have sought to play down the prospects of such a move during private discussions with bank executives in recent days, but the timing of Mr Postings’ letter underlines the heightened anxiety in the sector following the sharp recovery in its profitability in recent years.

“As many of our members have recently noted, efforts to boost the UK economy and foster a strong financial services sector would not be consistent with further tax rises on the sector, which already makes a substantial contribution to the public finances,” Mr Postings wrote.

“The emphasis should be on continuing to implement an agenda of regulatory reform that allows for an appropriate adjustment in risk appetite.”

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Mr Postings denied that the recovery in bank profitability was unreasonable, saying: “UK banks’ net interest margins have only returned to historically more normal levels and are far from excessive.”

He added that the industry had made a record tax contribution of approximately £45bn last year.

“UK Finance analysis shows that the UK’s total tax rate for model corporate and investment banks is already notably higher than other major financial centres such as Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Dublin, and New York,” Mr Postings told Ms Reeves.

“This disparity is driven by the permanence of sector-specific taxes in the UK, unlike in other EU jurisdictions where comparable arrangements have been phased out.”

He added that a further tax on the banking industry “would run counter to the government’s aim of supporting the financial services sector and make the UK less competitive internationally, potentially driving capital and investment to other jurisdictions”.

“It would also risk undermining the sector’s ability to drive growth, innovation, and productivity across the UK economy.

“A pro-growth, stable operating environment is the best way to deliver strong and sustainable tax revenues, retain talent and underpin investment across the economy.”

UK Finance declined to comment further on the letter when contacted by Sky News.

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