OPEC+, a group of 23 oil-producing nations led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, will convene on Sunday to decide on the next phase of production policy.
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The influential Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, on Sunday agreed to extend their official crude output cuts into 2025.
The coalition will produce a combined 39.725 million barrels per day next year, according to a table published by the OPEC Secretariat. The figure marks the production levels required of individual members before applying any additional production adjustments and factors in the group departure of long-standing OPEC member Angola earlier this January.
It also includes an increase in the UAE output by 300,000 barrels per day, which will be phased in gradually starting January 2025 until the end of September next year.
In a Google-translated statement carried by the state-owned Saudi Press Agency, a subset of the OPEC+ alliance, including kingpins Saudi Arabia and Russia, said they would extend a set of nearly 1.7 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts that were set to expire at the end of this year. These reductions will now be implemented throughout 2025.
This smaller group of OPEC+ member will also stretch another round of voluntary output cuts totalling 2.2 million barrels per day until the end of the third quarter of this year. These trims were initially only scheduled to last until the end of the second quarter.
“The quantities of this reduction, amounting to 2.2 million barrels per day, will then be restored gradually, on a monthly basis, until the end of September 2025,” the statement said.
Speaking to CNBC, analysts and OPEC+ delegates had previously signaled a high likelihood that the oil producers’ alliance would extend its existing supply cuts.
The group’s attention has shifted toward supply-demand balances amid the seasonal start of the summer driving season and the end of refinery maintenance in the world’s largest crude importer, China. Institution views sharply diverge, with OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report of May forecasting a 2.25 million barrel-per-day increase this year. The Paris-based International Energy Agency’s Oil Market Report of last month meanwhile points to just a 1.06 million-barrel-per-day demand hike.
OPEC+ ministers will next meet to discuss policy steps on Dec. 1.
Fire and smoke rise into the sky after an Israeli attack on the Shahran oil depot on June 15, 2025 in Tehran, Iran.
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The CEOs of two major energy companies are monitoring the developments between Iran and Israel — but they aren’t about to make firm predictions on oil prices.
Both countries traded strikes over the weekend, after Israel targeted nuclear and military facilities in Iran on Friday, killing some of its top nuclear scientists and military commanders.
Speaking at the Energy Asia conference in Kuala Lumpur on Monday, Lorenzo Simonelli, president and CEO of energy technology company Baker Hughes, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” that “my experience has been, never try and predict what the price of oil is going to be, because there’s one sure thing: You’re going to be wrong.”
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Simonelli said the last 96 hours “have been very fluid,” and expressed hope that there would be a de-escalation in tensions in the region.
“As we go forward, we’ll obviously monitor the situation like everybody else is. It is moving very quickly, and we’re going to anticipate the aspect of what’s next,” he added, saying that the company will take a wait-and-see approach for its projects.
At the same conference, Meg O’Neill, CEO of Australian oil and gas giant Woodside Energy, likewise told CNBC that the company is monitoring the impact of the conflict on markets around the world.
She highlighted that forward prices were already experiencing “very significant” effects in light of the events of the past four days.
If supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are affected, “that would have even more significant effects on prices, as customers around the world would be scrambling to meet their own energy needs,” she added.
As of Sunday, the Strait remained open, according to an advisory from the Joint Maritime Information Center. It said, “There remains a media narrative on a potential blockade of the [Strait of Hormuz]. JMIC has no confirmed information pointing towards a blockade or closure, but will follow the situation closely.”
Iran was reportedly considering closing the Strait of Hormuz in response to the attacks.
O’Neill said that oil and gas prices are closely linked to geopolitics, citing as examples events that date back to World War II and the oil crisis in the 1970s.
Nevertheless, she would not make a firm prediction on the price of oil, saying, “there’s many things we can forecast. The price of oil in five years is not something I would try to put a bet on.”
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The Strait of Hormuz is a vital waterway between Iran and the United Arab Emirates. About 20% of the world’s oil passes through it.
It is the only sea route from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration has described it as the “world’s most important oil transit chokepoint.”
A series of images of landscapes and wildlife from the Brigalow Belt region of Queensland near the town of St. George.
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Shares of Santos surged as much as 15.23% Monday, after it received a non-binding takeover offer of $18.72 billion by an Abu Dhabi’s National Oil Company-led group.
The move marks the biggest intraday jump in the Australian oil and gas producer’s shares since April 2020, LSEG data shows.
Prices of gold, the stalwart shelter in times of crises, rose. Investors flock to the precious metal amid uncertainty because it serves as a stable store of value that is mostly resistant against exogenous shocks, such as inflation or geopolitical conflicts.
And the dollar strengthened, as it is wont to do when the world looks ugly. Recall the dollar smile: The greenback will appreciate when things are really good because investors want in on U.S. risk assets, or when they are really bad because investors want in on the perceived safety of U.S. government bonds.
Stocks, the financial risk asset epitomized, fell across markets globally.
Despite the markets giving multiple indications we are entering a period of ugliness — or, at least, volatility — U.S. stocks still appear resilient, and the surge in oil prices only brings us back to where they were about three months ago as prices have been low since, CNBC’s Michael Santoli wrote.
The markets have, indeed, mostly shrugged off Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war, both of which are still brewing. But with the conflict between Israel and Iran still in its early days, it might pay to be extra cautious in the coming weeks.
Safe haven assets in demand Investors piled into safe-haven assets after Israel’s attack on Iran. After weeks of declining, the dollar index, a measurement of the strength of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies, rallied 0.3%on Friday and was up 0.1% as of7:30 a.m. Singapore time Monday. Spot gold rose 0.38% and gold futures for August delivery were up 0.41% Monday, adding to Friday’s gains of 1.4% and 1.5% respectively.
Prices of oil jump Oil prices surged as investors feared a disruption to oil supply from Iran, which produced 3.305 million barrels per day in April, according to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report of May. As of Monday morning Singapore time, U.S. crude oil rose 2.22% to $74.62 a barrel, adding to its 7.26% jump on Friday. The global benchmark Brent climbed 2.22% to $75.88 a barrel, following Friday’s 7.02% surge.
[PRO]U.S. stocks still look resilient Even though stocks fell on the eruption of conflict between Israel and Iran, the market appeared resilient, wrote CNBC’s Michael Santoli. This week, while hostilities between the two Middle East countries will continue weighing on investors’ minds, they should not lose sight of the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting meeting, which concludes Wednesday.
And finally…
The Boeing 787-9 civil jet airplane of Vietnam Airlines performs its flight display at the 51st Paris International Airshow in Le Bourget near Paris, France. (Photo by: aviation-images.com/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)
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