Stanley Cup Final preview: Players to watch, goalie confidence levels, top trends
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Ryan S. Clark
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Kristen Shilton
From a regular-season batch of 32 teams, to a Stanley Cup playoff field of 16, and now down to two, the NHL’s champion is close to being crowned for 2024.
A year after losing in the Stanley Cup Final to the Vegas Golden Knights, the Florida Panthers are out to finish their story and raise the Cup for the first time in franchise history.
For the Edmonton Oilers, a Stanley Cup would silence all the “yeah, but” conversations regarding superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and etch their names among the franchise greats from five prior Cup teams.
Game 1 is Saturday, June 8 (8 p.m. ET, ABC and ESPN+). Here’s everything you need to know about both teams, from key players to watch, goaltender confidence ratings, and the top trends for each team coming out of the conference finals.
Stanley Cup wins: None
How they got here: Defeated Lightning 4-1, Bruins 4-2, Rangers 4-2
Goalie confidence rating: 9 out of 10
Sergei Bobrovsky has been rock solid for the Panthers throughout these playoffs. Granted, the team’s excellent defensive play has aided Bobrovsky. But the veteran’s steady stream of quality performances gives Florida undeniable confidence Bobrovsky will be there to make the big saves.
He has earned a 12-5 record in the postseason, with a .908 save percentage and 2.20 goals-against average. The only playoff starter who has averaged fewer goals against per game than Bobrovsky was Boston’s Jeremy Swayman (and Bobrovsky ultimately won that battle when Florida sent the Bruins packing in their second-round series).
Bobrovsky had to be the Panthers’ hero during last season’s run to the Cup Final, and it wore him down in the end. This year’s workload has been more manageable, and that should set Bobrovsky up for continued success.
What the Eastern Conference finals taught us about the Panthers
Florida is the total package. The Panthers have star power, scoring depth, elite defensive habits, a top-tier goaltender and — perhaps most crucial of all — innate killer instinct.
The team was exceptional in the third period against the New York Rangers down the stretch of their series, winning the final three games by a one-goal margin. The Panthers also shut the Rangers down at 5-on-5 in that span, allowing just one even-strength goal while simultaneously rendering New York’s once-vaunted power play completely ineffective with a stifling penalty kill. And the way Florida held the Rangers’ elite scorers from producing — Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad combined for a single goal through six games — was a byproduct of the Panthers’ full-team buy-in on defense.
At the same time, Florida can be deadly off the rush while equally strong suppressing those chances from going the other way. Their ability to make New York pay for mistakes was another backbreaker for the Rangers, who couldn’t find the same opportunities to do damage. Florida rarely offers quality looks, and Bobrovsky stood tall against the most glaring breakdowns.
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Panthers claw down Rangers to advance to second straight Stanley Cup Final
The Panthers take care of business against the Rangers in Game 6 to advance to the Stanley Cup Final for the second year running.
Players who will be key to the Cup Final
One of Florida’s strengths may be its defense in a collective sense. But the Panthers’ defensemen will certainly be in the spotlight when the likes of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman try to get rolling.
Gustav Forsling has had a brilliant postseason going up against some of the toughest opposing matchups, and he has also contributed offensively (four goals and 11 points). Brandon Montour‘s physicality and active stick breaking up rush chances has been invaluable. Florida defends well and is aggressive in holding shooters to the outside and limiting action from the slot.
That will be critical in preventing the Oilers from running wild. Aaron Ekblad should also play a key role in steadying Florida from the back end — and this year he won’t be playing in the Cup Final with a broken foot. That’s a definite improvement.
Player who needs to step up
Carter Verhaeghe was a force for Florida early in the postseason. His production has been dwindling, though. Verhaeghe popped in five goals in five games against Tampa Bay, but he has just four goals total since then. He put only two shots on net in the final two games of the conference finals and wasn’t nearly as visible for the Panthers in creating opportunities around the net (although Igor Shesterkin did make a notable save on Verhaeghe in Game 6).
All of that is to say, Verhaeghe needs to recapture his first-series form in the Cup Final. There will be a laundry list of capable scorers across the ice — and some obviously elite talents, too — and the Panthers can’t afford any passengers in their group. Verhaeghe can absolutely be a difference-maker for Florida and drive its offense. Now is the time for him to shift gears.
Is there a coaching edge for the Panthers?
The Cup Final will feature two head coaches at opposite ends of the NHL spectrum. Florida coach Paul Maurice has been in the league for two decades, and he has now reached three Cup Finals (two with Florida). Edmonton’s Kris Knoblauch hasn’t even coached an entire NHL season yet, having replaced Jay Woodcroft in November as his first gig in the league. Will experience be a factor for either side?
The Oilers have responded well to Knoblauch, and their on-ice success since he took over is abundantly clear. But when evenly matched opponents like Florida and Edmonton clash, there is generally an X factor that emerges to separate the sides, something more intangible. Things such as a critical line change, or knowing when to take a timeout, or being able to read the demeanor of your team and adjust accordingly. All of that will be heightened given the stakes in the Cup Final.
We’ve already seen in the playoffs how well-timed coaching decisions have helped secure wins in tight contests. The margins for error in this series will be slim. The edge could lie not with who is sitting on the bench, but standing behind it.
Stanley Cup wins: 1990, 1988, 1987, 1985, 1984
How they got here: Defeated Kings 4-1, Canucks 4-3, Stars 4-2
Goalie confidence rating: 9 out of 10
There were certainly questions about Stuart Skinner earlier this postseason. But how he has performed since Game 6 of the second round has only added to what makes the Oilers such a problem in the defensive zone. They enter the Stanley Cup Final allowing just 25.1 shots per game, the third fewest among 2024 playoff teams.
With a penalty kill that held the Dallas Stars to zero goals through the conference finals, the Oilers have one of the strongest defensive identities in the league.
Complementing that with a consistent version of Skinner — who had a 1.95 goals-against average against the Stars — only adds to the argument that the Oilers might be the most complete team in the playoffs.
What the Western Conference finals taught us about the Oilers
That anyone who still believes this team is just Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid has not been paying attention. The path they took to beat the Stars in the Western Conference finals is proof.
In the Oilers’ victories in Games 4 and 5, they received key goals from players such as Mattias Janmark, Ryan McLeod, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Philip Broberg. Their penalty kill was perfect against the Stars, including going 3-for-3 in the pivotal Game 6.
They’ve developed a two-way identity that has allowed them to play comfortably in one-goal games, including the closeout in Game 6. They’ve made goal prevention a serious component to their success, and it has only added to the looming threat that the Oilers could break out to score more than four goals in a game as well.
A team that has been billed as an offensive juggernaut has shown it can be the complete package.
Players who will be key to the Cup Final
The Oilers have Draisaitl and McDavid, a pair of elite forwards who have four Hart Trophies between them. But again, they are more than that.
Zach Hyman has given them a forechecking winger who can control the net front. They have a puck-moving defenseman in Evan Bouchard, who, along with Mattias Ekholm, gives the Oilers a trusted top pairing.
This postseason has elevated Nugent-Hopkins’ profile as a two-way player because of what he has been able to do at 5-on-5, on the penalty kill and on the power play; he could be their most important forward not named Draisaitl or McDavid.
There’s also what Darnell Nurse accomplished against Dallas, going from a figure under scrutiny to being one of the Oilers’ most consistent players to close out the series. That includes logging more than 21 minutes with three hits while not being on the ice for a goal against in Game 6. That version of Nurse would be instrumental in helping capture the franchise’s first title since 1990.
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Oilers celebrate advancing to the Stanley Cup Final
The Oilers hang on to defeat the Stars in a hectic finish to advance to the Stanley Cup Final.
Player who needs to step up
Evander Kane. At his best, Kane is a physical power forward who can cause problems in the slot and at the net front, with a shot that can also make him dangerous on the perimeter. That has made him one of the NHL’s most consistent goal scorers over his career, with a run of nine seasons with more than 20.
It’s also what makes his recent scoring drought (six straight games, going back to Game 7 of the second round against the Vancouver Canucks) so puzzling.
Kane opened the conference finals with nine shots in his first two games, only to then record four shots combined in Games 3, 4 and 5. He was moved down from the second line to the third line as a result in Game 5, resulting in a significant decline in his work rate compared to his first two postseasons with the Oilers.
It’s possible Kane could be on the mend going into the Stanley Cup Final. After delivering a check early in Game 6, he skated to the bench and logged only 4:39 of ice time via nine shifts.
Hiring Kris Knoblauch could be the latest move in a certain trend
Moving on from Jay Woodcroft and hiring Kris Knoblauch not only saved the Oilers’ season, but allowed them to reach the Stanley Cup Final for the first time in nearly two decades. Whether the Oilers win the Cup or not, the move raises a debate about the expectations for an NHL coach in his first season with a new team.
This trend started in 2019, when Craig Berube, who had 161 games of NHL head-coaching experience, was made the interim coach of the St. Louis Blues … and won the Stanley Cup in what was his first of five-plus seasons with the club.
A year later, veteran coach Rick Bowness was an interim who guided the Dallas Stars to the Cup Final.
In 2021, Dominique Ducharme, an interim coach with no previous NHL head-coaching experience, guided the Montreal Canadiens to a Cup Final.
Last year saw Bruce Cassidy, who had 500-plus games of experience, win a title in his first campaign with the Vegas Golden Knights.
It’s a trend that continues with Knoblauch, whose head-coaching roles had previously been in the AHL and junior hockey. Knoblauch has the chance to be the first coach since Dan Bylsma in 2009 to win the title in his first year behind an NHL bench.
MONTREAL — Alex Ovechkin padded his NHL goals record and moved up a couple other big lists in the Washington Capitals‘ 8-4 romp over the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday night.
Ovechkin had his 33rd career hat trick to tie Brett Hull for fourth in NHL history and added an assist as he moved past Joe Sakic into 10th on the points list.
Ovechkin has 10 goals in 21 games this season to push his NHL-record to 907. The 40-year-old Russian has 1,643 points, two more than Sakic.
“I just try to do my job and try to enjoy the moment and enjoy the time,” Ovechkin said.
Ovechkin opened the scoring on a power play a minute into the first period, firing a wrist shot past goalie Sam Montembeault off a faceoff. Ovechkin assisted on Ethen Frank‘s goal two minutes into the second that gave the Capitals the lead for good at 2-1.
The Washington star scored twice late in the third period, the first on a rush with 4:57 to go and the second into an empty net from his own zone with 2:04 remaining. He has scored in four straight games and has seven goals in his last six games.
“After everything he’s done we’re still amazed at what he can do, and I’m sure he’s not close to slowing down,” Frank said of Ovechkin.
Ovechkin is the second player in NHL history with six goals in a four-game span at age 40 or older, according to ESPN Research.
Coming off a 7-4 home victory over Edmonton on Wednesday night, Washington has won three in a row to improve to 11-8-2. It was the Capitals’ lone road game in an eight-game span.
Montreal has lost five straight and seven of eight.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
It’s time for Texas to pack up.
The Longhorns plummeted to No. 17 on Tuesday night in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s third of six rankings, indicating that even if they run the table and punctuate their résumé with a win against No. 3 Texas A&M, they might still be locked out.
Notre Dame, though, should buy some furniture and move in. At No. 9 — ahead of No. 10 Alabama — the selection committee continued to reward the two-loss Irish for how they’re playing — not who they’re beating. No. 10 Alabama has four wins against CFP top-25 opponents, including the committee’s No. 4 team Georgia, No. 14 Vanderbilt, No. 20 Tennessee and No. 22 Mizzou, which snuck back into the ranking this week. Notre Dame’s only win against a CFP-ranked team is against No. 15 USC.
While the changes at the top were minimal, No. 24 Tulane is now the flavor of the week in the Group of 5 race after Navy knocked South Florida out of the same spot.
With only three Saturdays remaining before Selection Day, there are still games that can change the picture entirely, which leaves hope for some teams hovering on the bubble (here’s lookin’ at you, Miami).
The Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s third ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on this week’s committee ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Alabama. The loss to Oklahoma didn’t knock the Tide out of the committee’s top 12, but it put No. 10 Alabama in must-win mode and will keep them ranked behind the Sooners. The Tide have only one SEC loss and still have the best chance of any team to reach the conference championship game (71.6%), according to ESPN Analytics.
First team out: Vanderbilt. No. 14 Vandy jumped ahead of the three-loss Longhorns despite the head-to-head loss to Texas, but remains a long shot for the field as an at-large bid. The Commodores would need to beat Kentucky and Tennessee — plus hope there is some chaos above them. Maybe — maybe — if Bama loses to Auburn in the Iron Bowl, Miami loses to Pitt, and BYU loses to Cincinnati — it can open the door, but clearly multiple things need to work in their favor.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. This could change quickly if Oregon loses at home to USC on Saturday, as there are questions in the room about the Ducks’ No. 31 schedule strength. The Nov. 8 win at Iowa was impressive, but the Hawkeyes are now a four-loss team and dropped out of the top 25. The Ducks also have a double-digit home loss to Indiana, which is why their chances of reaching the Big Ten title game are only 12%.
First team out: USC. Like Oregon, USC just boosted its résumé with a gritty, close win against a talented Iowa team that fell out of the ranking with its fourth loss. The Trojans’ two losses were by a total of 12 points to Illinois and Notre Dame — and were both on the road. USC has a critical win against No. 18 Michigan, which boosts its status and gives the Trojans a tiebreaker in the Big Ten standings. If USC can win at Oregon (and avoid an embarrassing home loss to UCLA), the Trojans can unseat the Ducks as the Big Ten’s last team in. They would likely finish behind Notre Dame, though, because of the head-to-head result.
Still in the mix: Michigan. The difference between No. 18 Michigan and No. 17 Texas is that the Wolverines are still mathematically eligible to reach the Big Ten title game with a 3.6% chance, according to ESPN Analytics. The Wolverines avoided elimination Saturday with a narrow 24-22 win at Northwestern. They still have a chance to beat the committee’s No. 1 team in rival Ohio State, and nobody in the country would have a better win if that happens. If Michigan can run the table, it would have one of the best two-loss résumés in the country but would be ranked behind USC unless the Trojans lose again. If USC loses to Oregon, and Oregon loses to Washington — and Michigan runs the table — the Wolverines will have a strong case to be the Big Ten’s third team in. The Week 2 loss to Oklahoma looks better now that the Sooners are a top-10 team.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. At No. 5, the Red Raiders are within arm’s reach of a first-round bye and have the best chance of winning the Big 12 (69.5%), according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech has a bye this week but can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game if both Cincinnati and Arizona State lose. The Oct. 18 loss to Arizona State won’t keep Texas Tech out of the CFP if it finishes as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up, given how highly the committee has regarded Texas Tech to this point. The chances of that became even better after Arizona State appeared in the ranking at No. 25, easing some of the pain of that loss. The Red Raiders end the regular season at 4-7 West Virginia.
First team out: BYU. The Cougars put it all together during Saturday’s dominant win against TCU, but they would be excluded from the playoff today in order to make room for one of the five highest ranked conference champions. BYU still has the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (80.2%) behind Texas Tech (97.5%). They can clinch a spot with a win Saturday against Cincinnati and losses by both Arizona State and Houston. If BYU wins the league, it’s a CFP lock. If BYU loses, though, it would depend on how close the game is. The selection committee is unlikely to reward BYU with an at-large bid if it plays as poorly as it did against Texas Tech during the regular season.
Still in the mix: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Utah. According to ESPN Analytics, Utah still has an 11.9% chance to reach the Big 12 championship, followed by ASU (8.4%) and Cincinnati (1.9%).
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Miami
Last team in: Miami. The No. 13 Canes are listed here because they are the selection committee’s highest-ranked ACC team and are still mathematically eligible to reach the conference championship game. Until the participants of that game are clear, the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team will continue to appear here. With six teams still in contention, the most fair representative is the committee’s. Still, Miami’s best chance at reaching the CFP right now is through an at-large bid because the Canes only have a 7.1% chance to reach the ACC title game. To get that at-large bid, Miami still needs to beat both Virginia Tech and Pitt and hope for losses above it to move into the top 10. The ACC champion will earn the No. 11 seed and the Group of 5 champion will have the No. 12 seed, so Miami needs to jump to No. 10 by Selection Day. It’s not inconceivable if Alabama loses to Auburn, BYU loses to Cincinnati and Utah loses to either K-State or at Kansas. It will take more than one of those things — if not all three. The question will be if the committee ever revisits Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame in the season opener. The Canes would likely have to creep closer to the Irish in their ranking for them to be comparable enough to use that tiebreaker. Georgia Tech can clinch a spot in the game with a win against Pitt on Saturday, and Virginia can clinch with losses by Duke, Pitt and SMU.
First team out: Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets beat a 1-10 Boston College team by two points in spite of themselves and are a win away from a guaranteed appearance in the ACC championship game. They’ve also got a chance to earn a top-5 win in the regular-season finale against Georgia. If Georgia Tech doesn’t beat Georgia, it would need to win the ACC to reach the playoff because a three-loss ACC runner-up is out.
Still in the mix: Duke, Pitt, SMU, Virginia. Virginia has the best chance to reach the ACC title game (77.7%); SMU is third (38%), followed by Duke (11%), Miami and Pitt (7%).
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. At No. 9 and ahead of two-loss Alabama, Notre Dame is winning the eye test, because it is ranked behind Alabama in both Strength of Record and Strength of Schedule. Alabama has the No. 4 schedule in the country, while the Irish are No. 29. Notre Dame’s best wins are against USC, Navy and Pitt, with only No. 15 USC ranked this week. As long as the Irish end the season with wins against Syracuse and Stanford, their place in the playoff should be secure.
Group of 5
Would be in: Tulane. The Green Wave have decent wins against Northwestern, Duke and Memphis, and the best combination of eye test and résumé of the current contenders. Tulane’s No. 71 schedule strength is better than James Madison (No. 119), North Texas (No. 127) and Navy (No. 74). Tulane and North Texas are the most likely teams to play for the American Conference championship, but North Texas has the best chance to win the league (61.4%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Still in the mix: James Madison, Navy, North Texas. Of these teams, JMU has the best strength of record (No. 24) and game control (No. 40) ranks, but the worst strength of schedule (No. 119). Navy has the best win — against South Florida — and the best loss (to Notre Dame), but lost to North Texas.
Bracket
Based on the committee’s third ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
With two weeks left in the regular season, what was once a vague picture of the College Football Playoff is finally coming into view.
Ohio State and Indiana look like sure things from the Big Ten. Georgia, Texas A&M and Ole Miss have all but punched their playoff tickets. Notre Dame and Texas Tech feel good about their odds, but all of that depends on something critical happening these last two weeks that can be boiled down to two simple words: avoid chaos.
Ah, but chaos is certainly possible.
Is Miami a contender? Can the Canes slip into the ACC title game mix?
Is Texas Tech guaranteed a bid? What happens if BYU keeps its stellar season going?
The ACC is ground zero for chaos and everyone from 9-1 Georgia Tech to 5-5 Duke still has a shot at winning the conference.
In the Big Ten, Oregon and USC will face off in what might be a de facto play-in game for the playoff.
And remember last week when Oklahoma earned a statement win against Alabama that appeared to shore up a playoff spot for the Sooners? Well, that dance card is only good as long as Oklahoma beats Missouri this week.
It’s late November, with just enough season behind us to feel as if we’ve got a real understanding of what’s ahead and just enough left on the docket to upend the whole picture and inject a fresh dose of head-spinning into the mix. — David Hale
Jump to:
Breakout players | BYU-Cincinnati
What’s at stake? | Quotes of the week
Top five breakout players this season
Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss: One of the great plot twists of this college football season has been a little-known transfer from Division II Ferris State stepping in and leading the Rebels to a 10-1 record. Lane Kiffin’s new dual-threat playmaker won a D-II national title last season and has shown no fear in moving up to SEC ball, ranking seventh nationally with 3,101 total yards, 20 total touchdowns and only four turnovers since taking over for injured starter Austin Simmons. The No. 6 Rebels struck gold with Chambliss as well as 1,110-yard rusher Kewan Lacy, a Missouri transfer, in their efforts to reload on offense and get into the CFP.
Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State: Reese entered this season with only five career starts over two seasons with the Buckeyes, eager to finally become a full-time starter for the defending national champions. The 6-foot-4, 243-pound junior is quickly playing his way into projected top-10 draft pick status as one of the most versatile defensive playmakers under first-year coordinator Matt Patricia. Reese has produced a team-high 58 tackles with 18 pressures, 10 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks as a fast, powerful off-ball linebacker who’s just as gifted at rushing off the edge for the No. 1 scoring defense in FBS.
David Bailey, OLB, Texas Tech: Bailey didn’t earn All-ACC honors last season at Stanford but was highly coveted in the transfer portal by the Red Raiders as an impact pass rusher with big-time potential. Bailey has been worth every penny, leading the country with 12.5 sacks and 61 pressures through 11 games, while playing alongside Romello Height and Lee Hunter on one of the top defensive lines in the sport. Bailey is performing like a first-round talent for a No. 5-ranked Texas Tech squad determined to win the program’s first Big 12 championship.
Cashius Howell, DE, Texas A&M: The former Bowling Green transfer had a good debut season with the Aggies in 2024, but Howell has totally raised his game in his second year in the SEC. The 6-2, 248-pound senior has been a consistently elite pass rusher for the undefeated Aggies with 11.5 sacks and 37 pressures, and could end up being a first-round pick next spring.
Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri: Hardy exceled during his freshman season at UL Monroe and continues to be one of the great transfer portal gets for the Tigers. He’s leading the country with 1,346 rushing yards and 15 TDs, and has forced 72 missed tackles, according to ESPN Research. Hardy just had another career-best day Saturday with a 300-yard effort against Mississippi State after already rushing for 250 yards against Louisiana, plus he has five 100-yard performances this season. — Max Olson
How could BYU-Cincinnati affect the Big 12 title race?
Texas Tech and BYU, the Big 12’s remaining one-loss teams, appear to be on course to meet again in the championship game. For them, it’s simple: win and you’re in. But as BYU learned last season when it was in the same spot through 10 games, simple doesn’t mean easy.
If the Cougars win at Cincinnati on Saturday, it would eliminate the Bearcats. Then BYU would be, at minimum, a win against UCF away from the title game. But the Cougars could also clinch a spot this weekend with two scenarios: 1) A win plus losses by Arizona State (at Colorado) and Houston (vs. TCU); or 2) A win and an Arizona State loss, plus a Utah win (Kansas State).
If BYU loses to Cincinnati, then all bets are off. Utah, Houston, Arizona State and Cincinnati are all mathematically alive. Which means that all over them can still cling to CFP hopes, as far-fetched as they might be. This is one of the obvious benefits of the playoff format. It keeps more teams relevant later in the season and ensures meaningful games across the board into the final weeks. — Kyle Bonagura
What’s at stake in each matchup?
USC-Oregon: To put it bluntly: a spot in the CFP. That’s what’s at stake in Eugene this week as the college football world sets its eyes on the one marquee matchup this week.
USC has only one Big Ten loss and should it beat the Ducks, it would qualify for not only its best win of the season but one of the best wins in the sport this year. The Trojans have the offense to keep up with the Ducks; the question is, what USC defense will show up Saturday? That will be the key to pulling off the upset and putting Lincoln Riley’s team in the driver’s seat for a CFP spot.
One-loss Oregon might have some more breathing room if it loses to USC, but it’s not a guarantee the Ducks will get in with two losses. At that point, the Ducks’ best win would be at Iowa (currently unranked) and would have to rank behind at least USC (and Michigan if it beats Ohio State) making their entry back into the field a tight one, should it happen.
Plus, not to mention the fact that Oregon finishes with a tricky game at Washington — a team that has been up-and-down this season but has plenty of talent and motivation to play spoiler against its rival. — Paolo Uggetti
Pitt-Georgia Tech: A week ago, Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi colorfully made the point that his team could give up 100 points to Notre Dame, but it wouldn’t change the fact that these next two games, starting with Georgia Tech, will define the Panthers’ postseason fate. Well, Pitt didn’t surrender 100, but Notre Dame did win easily, putting an even bigger spotlight on the Panthers’ need to win out if they want any hope of capitalizing on a wide-open ACC.
For Georgia Tech, the stakes are even clearer. This is the Yellow Jackets’ final ACC game of the season. Win, and they’re guaranteed a spot in Charlotte for the ACC championship. Lose and all bets are off. Tech’s defense has been a train wreck the past two games, and getting right against Pitt is essential to keep a magical season going a little longer. — Hale
SMU-Louisville: While much of the attention in the ACC has focused on Miami, Virginia and Georgia Tech, SMU still has a shot to make it to the ACC championship game for the second straight season. That is the biggest thing on the line Saturday. With only one conference loss, SMU sits in a four-way tie atop the ACC headed into the weekend. The easiest path to Charlotte is this one: SMU has to win out, and Pitt has to beat Georgia Tech on Saturday. There is another clinching scenario: SMU wins out, and Virginia Tech upsets Virginia next week.
Though the Mustangs do not control their destiny, the fact they are in the mix to play for a conference championship again speaks to the job coach Rhett Lashlee has done since SMU made the move to the ACC in 2024. SMU is not a one-trick pony (see what we did there), but is building a program meant to contend year after year.
“It is a little bit different than last year because we were in control of everything,” Lashlee said. “This year, it’s almost like a playoff scenario already. Nobody’s talking about us, and I’m totally cool with that.” — Andrea Adelson
Quotes of the week
“Brent Key, a great football coach who’s done an outstanding job,” Pitt’s Pat Narduzzi said of Georgia Tech’s fourth-year head coach. “They might as well just announce him as ACC Coach of the Year. He’s done an incredible job. Just give it to him early.”
“I think for us, these are all the same people that thought we were going to suck,” USC coach Lincoln Riley said on the 8-2 Trojans’ Week 13 appearance on College GameDay. “This is all the same people, you know, we were going to do this and USC was this and that. And so for us to pay attention to them now would be a little bit counterproductive. We haven’t forgotten that.”
Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin on if he expects to be coaching in the Nov. 29 Egg Bowl: “Do you know something that I don’t know? Do I expect to coach next week? Why would I not expect to coach next week? I mean, I expected to coach against Florida, too. So I don’t even understand the question about how I would not expect to coach next week. Why would I [not] be at work?”
“I’ve had no discussions, not with my agent, not with the university, not with any other school, not with any NFL team, about ever going anywhere else,” said Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, who knocked down rumors around a potential departure this week. “I came here to win championships.”
Colorado’s Deion Sanders appealed for more time with the Buffaloes this week: “You’ve got the right man [for the job]. I promise you, you do. And I’m going to prove that to you. Just give me an opportunity and a little more time, and I’m going to prove that to you.”
“Does it look, feel, smell and operate like a big-time program?” James Franklin said of his plans for Virginia Tech in his introductory news conference with the Hokies. “All those things need to be in place. … I think the previous coaches here were in some challenging situations. That’s the truth of it. There’s some things that we’re going to have to look at, and it’s not just James Franklin. It’s the marketing office, the ticketing office. Everybody’s got to take some time and look in the mirror and say, ‘Are we operating like a big-time program?'”
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