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Accurate forecasts, finally? — As a potentially historic hurricane season looms, can AI forecast models help? New model that predicts global weather can run on a single desktop computer.

Eric Berger – Jun 3, 2024 11:00 am UTC Enlarge / AI weather models are arriving just in time for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.Aurich Lawson | Getty Images reader comments 0

Much like the invigorating passage of a strong cold front, major changes are afoot in the weather forecasting community. And the end game is nothing short of revolutionary: an entirely new way to forecast weather based on artificial intelligence that can run on a desktop computer.

Today’s artificial intelligence systems require one resource more than any other to operatedata. For example, large language models such as ChatGPT voraciously consume data to improve answers to queries. The more and higher quality data, the better their training, and the sharper the results.

However, there is a finite limit to quality data, even on the Internet. These large language models have hoovered up so much data that they’re being sued widely for copyright infringement. And as they’re running out of data, the operators of these AI models are turning to ideas such as synthetic data to keep feeding the beast and produce ever more capable results for users.

If data is king, what about other applications for AI technology similar to large language models? Are there untapped pools of data? One of the most promising that has emerged in the last 18 months is weather forecasting, and recent advances have sent shockwaves through the field of meteorology.

That’s because there’s a secret weapon: an extremely rich data set. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the premiere organization in the world for numerical weather prediction, maintains a set of data about atmospheric, land, and oceanic weather data for every day, at points around the world, every few hours, going back to 1940. The last 50 years of data, after the advent of global satellite coverage, is especially rich. This dataset is known as ERA5, and it is publicly available. Advertisement

It was not created to fuel AI applications, but ERA5 has turned out to be incredibly useful for this purpose. Computer scientists only really got serious about using this data to train AI models to forecast the weather in 2022. Since then, the technology has made rapid strides. In some cases, the output of these models is already superior to global weather models that scientists have labored decades to design and build, and they require some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world to run.

“It is clear that machine learning is a significant part of the future of weather forecasting,” said Matthew Chantry, who leads AI forecasting efforts at the European weather center known as ECMWF, in an interview with Ars. Its moving fast

John Dean and Kai Marshland met as undergraduates at Stanford University in the late 2010s. Dean, an electrical engineer, interned at SpaceX during the summer of 2017. Marshland, a computer scientist, interned at the launch company the next summer. Both graduated in 2019 and were trying to figure out what to do with their lives.

“We decided we wanted to solve the problem of weather uncertainty,” Marshland said, so they co-founded a company called WindBorne Systems.

The premise of the company was simple: For about 85 percent of the Earth and its atmosphere, we have no good data about weather conditions there. A lack of quality data, which establishes initial conditions, represents a major handicap for global weather forecast models. The company’s proposed solution was in its namewind borne.

Dean and Marshland set about designing small weather balloons they could release into the atmosphere and which would fly around the world for up to 40 days, relaying useful atmospheric data that could be packaged and sold to large, government-funded weather models.

Weather balloons provide invaluable data about atmospheric conditionsreadings such as temperature, dewpoints, and pressuresthat cannot be captured by surface observations or satellites. Such atmospheric “profiles” are helpful in setting the initial conditions models start with. The problem is that traditional weather balloons are cumbersome and only operate for a few hours. Because of this, the National Weather Service only launches them twice daily from about 100 locations in the United States. Page: 1 2 3 4 Next → reader comments 0 Eric Berger Eric Berger is the senior space editor at Ars Technica, covering everything from astronomy to private space to wonky NASA policy, and author of the book Liftoff, about the rise of SpaceX. A certified meteorologist, Eric lives in Houston. Advertisement Channel Ars Technica ← Previous story Related Stories Today on Ars

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Charlie Kirk posthumously awarded Presidential Medal of Freedom by Donald Trump

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Charlie Kirk posthumously awarded Presidential Medal of Freedom by Donald Trump

Charlie Kirk has been posthumously awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom by Donald Trump.

The USA’s highest civilian honour was received by the conservative activist’s widow, Erika, at the White House.

Mr Kirk, 31, was fatally shot on 10 September while speaking at an event at Utah Valley University.

He founded Turning Point USA and toured American university campuses, debating students about current affairs.

Erika Kirk at the White House. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Erika Kirk at the White House. Pic: Reuters

Erika Kirk and Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Erika Kirk and Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters

Addressing those attending the ceremony in the White House rose garden, the US president said they were there to “honour and remember a fearless warrior for liberty” and a “beloved leader who galvanised the next generation”.

He said Mr Kirk’s name was being entered “forever into the eternal roster of true American heroes”.

Mr Trump described Charlie Kirk as an “American patriot of the deepest conviction, the finest quality and the highest calibre”.

He said his nation had been “robbed” of an “extraordinary champion”.

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Has Charlie Kirk become a MAGA ‘martyr’?

And Mr Trump said Mr Kirk was assassinated in the “prime of his life for boldly speaking the truth, for living his faith, and relentlessly fighting for a better and stronger America”.

The ceremony coincided with what would have been Mr Kirk’s 32nd birthday.

Mr Trump described Erika Kirk, now head of Turning Point USA, as someone who had “endured unspeakable hardship with unbelievable strength”.

Read more:
What do we know about Erika Kirk?
Charlie Kirk’s movement is growing in wake of his assassination

Charlie Kirk. File pic: AP
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Charlie Kirk. File pic: AP

A 22-year-old man, Tyler Robinson, from the city of Washington in Utah has been charged with Mr Kirk’s murder. Prosecutors said they would seek the death penalty.

At a memorial event held at a stadium in Arizona, Erika Kirk told an enormous crowd she forgave her husband’s killer.

“The answer to hate is not hate,” she said.

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Grammy-winning R&B and soul star D’Angelo dies after ‘prolonged battle with cancer’

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Grammy-winning R&B and soul star D'Angelo dies after 'prolonged battle with cancer'

Grammy-award winning R&B and soul singer D’Angelo has died following a battle with pancreatic cancer, his family has said.

He died on Tuesday, leaving behind a “legacy of extraordinarily moving music” following a “prolonged and courageous battle with cancer,” his family said in a statement.

The prominent musician, born Michael D’Angelo Archer, was 51 years old.

A family statement said: “We are saddened that he can only leave dear memories with his family, but we are eternally grateful for the legacy of extraordinarily moving music he leaves behind.

“We ask that you respect our privacy during this difficult time, but invite you all join us in mourning his passing while also celebrating the gift of song that he has left for the world.”

The singer rose to prominence in the 1990s with his first album, Brown Sugar.

The track “Lady” from that album reached No. 10 in March 1996 and remained on Billboard’s Hot 100 chart for 20 weeks.

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Stars of sumo head to London’s Royal Albert Hall – and noodles sell out

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Stars of sumo head to London's Royal Albert Hall - and noodles sell out

They’re getting through 70kg of rice a day and the wholesaler has run out of noodles. Yes, Sumo returns to London on Wednesday.

It’s just the second time a Grand Tournament has been held outside of Japan – and this is a sport that has records going back more than 1,500 years.

It’s 34 years since the Royal Albert Hall hosted the only previous such event on foreign soil – and the appetite for tickets meant all five days sold out immediately.

Much of the focus is on the two grand champions or yokozuna, the 74th and 75th men to attain the rank.

They’re the Mongolian Hoshoryu Tomokatsu, plus Japan’s Onosato Daiki – who this year became the quickest wrestler to achieve the rank in the modern era.

“I’m happy that Sumo is back after so many years,” Onosato said. “I hope I can show the UK fans how fantastic Sumo is.”

“Being a yokozuna has a lot of responsibility,” Hoshoryu told Sky Sports. “We have to show everyone an example of what a yokozuna is – and that’s very difficult.

“My uncle was a yokozuna – and I’m happy to follow in his footsteps. But I came here to London as a yokozuna which he didn’t, so I’m even happier.”

The two are already great rivals.

Onosato Daiki became the quickest ever to achieve yokozuna rank. Pic: AP
Image:
Onosato Daiki became the quickest ever to achieve yokozuna rank. Pic: AP

At the recent Aki Basho – the most prestigious tournament on the sumo calendar – the pair finished with identical records after 15 days of bouts.

It all came down to a final play-off between the two yokozuna – the first time that had happened in 16 years. It was Onosato who came out on top on that occasion.

Hoshoryu says he is a big fan of basketball and football. He follows Chelsea, although his favourite players are going back a bit: “Didier Drogba and Petr Cech. He’s the ‘keeper. I like this guy!”

Early starts and a hearty stew: The life of a rikishi

The wrestlers – or rikishi – have a rigorous training regime.

They live in communal blocks called stables and practice starts early. Perhaps surprisingly, everyone skips breakfast. After training and practice – and for the younger rikishi, chores – the wrestlers all eat together.

The staple of their diet is chankonabe, a hearty stew packed with meat and vegetables. The feeding of the 40 rikishi who have come over for the five-day tournament is a challenge in itself.

Donagh Collins, the CEO of co-organisers Askonas Holt, said: “We are going through 70 kilos of rice a day. Somebody told me that the wholesaler for the noodles has run out of noodles. We’re really pushing the system here.”

The ring – or dohyo – is just 4.55m in diameter and quite small when two giant wrestlers leap at each other.

The aim of the fights is to either get your opponent onto the floor – or, more spectacularly, shove or hurl them out of the dohyo, so spectators in the ringside seats may be getting extremely up-close to the wrestlers.

The last time the tournament was in Britain, the massive Konishiki, known as the Dump Truck, took centre stage.

The giant Hawaiian was the heaviest-ever rikishi coming in at 287kg – or 45 stone. That’s a lot of wrestler to dodge if he comes falling out of the ring towards you.

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The Royal Albert Hall may be firstly a concert venue, but it has hosted the likes of John McEnroe, Lennox Lewis and even Muhammad Ali.

And for the next five days, the cream of the world of sumo will be thrilling the crowds – provided a new noodle supplier is found.

What is a yokozuna?

Yokozuna is the highest rank in sumo, with its name meaning “horizontal rope” and refers to the rope worn around a competitor’s waist as they enter the ring.

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