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Labour could be on course to win a historic landslide, with the party expected to win a 194-seat majority, a YouGov poll shows.

It would be the highest number of seats of any party at any election since Stanley Baldwin won a majority of 208 in 1924.

Sky News has partnered with YouGov for the campaign and today we publish the first of their three polling projections, known as MRPs, which suggests the United Kingdom is on the cusp of a major redrawing of the political landscape.

The projection shows a historic Labour landslide, bigger than Tony Blair achieved in 1997.

It also projects a Tory wipeout in large parts of the country, a Lib Dem surge and the Scottish National Party losing over half its seats in Scotland, if the election were being held right now.

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The poll has Labour on 422 seats, up 222 compared to the 2019 results based on new constituency boundaries. This is the highest number of Labour seats on record, and a much bigger majority than anything else since the Second World War.

YouGov MRP poll for Sky News suggests that there are no safe Tory seats remaining

A 194 majority for Starmer would dwarf Mr Blair’s 1997 landslide majority of 179 and that of Margaret Thatcher, who got 144 in 1983.

The Conservatives would plummet to 140 seats, down 232 – as they face a near wipeout in London, the North East, the North West and Wales. This is the lowest since 1906 when they won 131 seats. This means the party retreats predominantly to the South East, South West and East Anglia.

This projection gives the Tories significantly fewer seats than the previous lowest number of Tory seats in British post-war history: 165 in 1997.

The Lib Dems would get 48 seats according to this projection, up 40 on 2019, quadrupling their seats and far higher than Lib Dem pollsters were predicting last year. This would mean Ed Davey’s party does not break records but takes them back to their previous levels of success under Lord Ashdown, who got 46 seats in 1997 and 62 under Charles Kennedy.

The SNP would get 17 of 57 seats in Scotland in this projection and down 31 seats on the notional 2019 results. This is the nationalist party’s lowest score this decade and well down from the peak of 56 out of 59 seats in 2015.

YouGov’s polling projection is based on interviews with 53,334 people in England and Wales and 5,541 in Scotland, with data collected between 24 May and 1 June.

This projection, which models how each individual constituency would vote, implies the following vote shares: Con 24.5%, Lab 42.9%, Lib Dem 10.6%, Reform 10.1%, Green 6.7%, SNP 2.8%, Plaid 0.7%, Others 1.7%.

YouGov MRP suggests that the Conservatives will lose 19 points on the 2019 result

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The scale of the rout under this projection means many of the Tories’ biggest cabinet figures are now under threat in this campaign.

Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader, Victoria Prentis, the attorney general, Alex Chalk, the justice secretary, David TC Davies, the Welsh secretary and Johnny Mercer, the armed forces minister in the cabinet are all on course to lose their seats under this projection.

Twelve of the 26 members of the cabinet who are running for re-election are at risk in total.

In addition, the future of Steve Baker, Northern Ireland minister, Bim Afolami, Economic Secretary to the Treasury, and housing minister Lee Rowley are all hanging in the balance, the projection suggests.

Twenty-two of the 45 ministers of the government confirmed to stand are at risk.

One member of Labour’s shadow cabinet is also at risk under this projection. The shadow culture secretary Thangham Debonnaire is fighting the Greens in her Bristol Central seat: YouGov says this seat is in the balance.

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Fourteen children arrested on suspicion of manslaughter over Gateshead fire released on bail

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Fourteen children arrested on suspicion of manslaughter over Gateshead fire released on bail

All 14 children arrested on suspicion of manslaughter after a boy died in a fire have been released on police bail, officers said.

Layton Carr, 14, was found dead near the site of a fire at Fairfield industrial park in the Bill Quay area of Gateshead on Friday.

Northumbria Police said on Saturday that they had arrested 11 boys and three girls in connection with the incident.

In an update on Sunday, a Northumbria Police spokesman said: “All those arrested have since been released on police bail pending further inquiries.”

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Teenager dies in industrial estate fire

Firefighters raced to the industrial site shortly after 8pm on Friday, putting out the blaze a short time later.

Police then issued an appeal for Carr, who was believed to be in the area at that time.

In a statement on Saturday, the force said that “sadly, following searches, a body believed to be that of 14-year-old Layton Carr was located deceased inside the building”.

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David Thompson, headteacher of Hebburn Comprehensive School, where Layton was a pupil, said the school community was “heartbroken”.

Mr Thompson described him as a “valued and much-loved member of Year 9” and said he would be “greatly missed by everyone”.

He added that the school’s “sincere condolences” were with Layton’s family and that the community would “rally together to support one another through this tragedy”.

A fundraising page on GoFundMe has been set up to help Layton’s mother pay for funeral costs.

Pic: Gofundme
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Pic: Gofundme

Organiser Stephanie Simpson said: “The last thing Georgia needs to stress trying to pay for a funeral for her Boy Any donations will help thank you.”

One tribute in a Facebook post read: “Can’t believe I’m writing this my nephew RIP Layton 💔 forever 14 you’ll be a massive miss, thinking of my sister and 2 beautiful nieces right now.”

Detective Chief Inspector Louise Jenkins, of Northumbria Police, also said: “This is an extremely tragic incident where a boy has sadly lost his life.”

She added that the force’s “thoughts are with Layton’s family as they begin to attempt to process the loss of their loved one”.

They are working to establish “the full circumstances surrounding the incident” and officers will be in the area to “offer reassurance to the public”, she added.

A cordon remains in place at the site while police carry out enquiries.

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Football bodies could be forced to pay towards brain injury care costs of ex-players

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Football bodies could be forced to pay towards brain injury care costs of ex-players

Football bodies could be forced to pay towards the care costs of ex-players who have been diagnosed with brain conditions, under proposals set to be considered by MPs.

Campaigners are drafting amendments to the Football Governance Bill, which would treat conditions caused by heading balls as an “industrial injuries issue”.

The proposals seek to require the football industry to provide the necessary financial support.

Campaigners say existing support is not fit for purpose, including the Brain Health Fund which was set up with an initial £1m by the Professional Footballers’ Association (PFA), supported by the Premier League.

But the Premier League said the fund has supported 121 families with at-home adaptations and care home fees.

From England‘s 1966 World Cup-winning team, both Jack and Bobby Charlton died with dementia, as did Martin Peters, Ray Wilson and Nobby Stiles.

Neil Ruddock speaks to Sky's Rob Harris outside parliament
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Neil Ruddock speaks to Sky’s Rob Harris outside parliament

Ex-players, including former Liverpool defender Neil Ruddock, went to parliament last week to lobby MPs.

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Ruddock told Sky News he had joined campaigners “for the families who’ve gone through hell”.

“A professional footballer, greatest job in the world, but no one knew the dangers, and that’s scary,” he said.

“Every time someone heads a ball it’s got to be dangerous to you. You know, I used to head 100 balls a day in training. I didn’t realise that might affect my future.”

A study co-funded by the PFA and the Football Association (FA) in 2019 found footballers were three and a half times more likely to die of a neurodegenerative disease than members of the public of the same age.

‘In denial’

Among those calling on football authorities to contribute towards the care costs of ex-players who have gone on to develop conditions such as Alzheimer’s and dementia is Labour MP Chris Evans.

Mr Evans, who represents Caerphilly in South Wales, hopes to amend the Bill to establish a care and financial support scheme for ex-footballers and told a recent event in parliament that affected ex-players “deserve to be compensated”.

Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who helped to draft the amendment, said the game was “in denial about the whole thing”.

Mr Burnham called for it to be seen as “an industrial injuries issue in the same way with mining”.

In January, David Beckham lent his support to calls for greater support for footballers affected by dementia.

One of the amendments says that “the industry rather than the public should bear the financial burden”.

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A spokesperson for the FA said it was taking a “leading role in reviewing and improving the safety of our game” and that it had “already taken many proactive steps to review and address potential risk factors”.

An English Football League spokesperson said it was “working closely with other football bodies” to ensure both professional and grassroots football are “as safe as it can be”.

The PFA and Premier League declined to comment.

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Terror arrests came in context of raised warnings about Iran, with ongoing chaos in its own backyard

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Terror arrests came in context of raised warnings about Iran, with ongoing chaos in its own backyard

These are two separate and unrelated investigations by counter-terror officers.

But the common thread is nationality – seven out of the eight people arrested are Iranian.

And that comes in the context of increased warnings from government and the security services about Iranian activity on British soil.

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Counter terror officers raid property

Last year, the director general of MI5, Ken McCallum, said his organisation and police had responded to 20 Iran-backed plots presenting potentially lethal threats to British citizens and UK residents since January 2022.

He linked that increase to the ongoing situation in Iran’s own backyard.

“As events unfold in the Middle East, we will give our fullest attention to the risk of an increase in – or a broadening of – Iranian state aggression in the UK,” he said.

The implication is that even as Iran grapples with a rapidly changing situation in its own region, having seen its proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, decimated and itself coming under Israeli attack, it may seek avenues further abroad.

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The government reiterated this warning only a few weeks ago, with security minister Dan Jarvis addressing parliament.

“The threat from Iran sits in a wider context of the growing, diversifying and evolving threat that the UK faces from malign activity by a number of states,” Jarvis said.

“The threat from states has become increasingly interconnected in nature, blurring the lines between: domestic and international; online and offline; and states and their proxies.

“Turning specifically to Iran, the regime has become increasingly emboldened, asserting itself more aggressively to advance their objectives and undermine ours.”

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As part of that address, Jarvis highlighted the National Security Act 2023, which “criminalises assisting a foreign intelligence service”, among other things.

So it was notable that this was the act used in one of this weekend’s investigations.

The suspects were detained under section 27 of the same act, which allows police to arrest those suspected of being “involved in foreign power threat activity”.

Those powers are apparently being put to use.

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