US diesel demand plummeted to its lowest seasonal level in 26 years last quarter – but is that due to a down economy, or booming commercial EV sales?
The production of distillate, the petroleum-based fuel that powers trucking, heating, and heavy industry, plunged to 3.67 million barrels per day in March (down from more 4.1 million barrels last year) according to monthly data from the US Energy Information Administration. That figure marks a downward revision from the agency’s previous estimates, and is even lower than the same month in 2020 (3.96 million). But, while less oil is generally good for people and planet, it’s not always good for profits.
“The deteriorating diesel market is a warning signal that broader oil demand growth could be at risk,” according to a quote attributed to Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities, by Transport Topics. “Consumption of the fuel tends to fall as the economy slows, and a slowing economy presages waning demand for other fuels.”
“It’s a function of the slowing of the economies in Asia and the US and how inflation is tightening consumer spending habits,” Kissler said, continuing to spin a decline in oil consumption as a bad thing. “They’re not going out and spending money like they were a year ago.”
Volvo’s not alone. Companies like Nissan, Hyundai, and Daimler (parent company of Mercedes-Benz and the Freightliner and Rizon truck brands) have also backed away from developing new internal combustion engines.
And, while we’re on the topic of Daimler’s truck brands, it’s worth noting that commercial EV sales are soaring. Despite all the doom, gloom, and wishful thinking from the pro-oil/anti-EV crowd, the numbers paint a narrative of swift expansion in the commercial EV and ZEV (Zero-Emission Vehicle) markets, with CALSTART’s latest figures revealing a remarkable 250% growth in the zero-emission heavy truck market.
Those same CALSTART figures, from January of this year, show that the US had seen the deployment of more than 14,000 battery-electric cargo vans in 2023, with a significant surge of 11,835 units deployed in the first half of that year, alone. That is a staggering 461% increase in deployments compared to CALSTART’s previous report – and the electrification of large commercial fleets is a trend that doesn’t seem to be slowing down.
Take a good look at the numbers for HD trucks. The CALSTART graph shows “just” 867 units on the road, sure – but consider some recent news stories that are blowing that number out of the water:
I could keep going, but you get the idea: there are hundreds, if not thousands of electric trucks on the road today that weren’t this time last year – and if you don’t think that’s putting a damper on diesel demand I have a bridge to sell you.
The all-electric Cadillac LYRIQ was an Electrek favorite when it first made its debut two years ago. Now, LYRIQ buyers who have been waiting for a deal can score more than $10,500 in discounts on the Ultium-based Caddy.
Our own Seth Weintraub said that GM had come in, “a year early and dollar long at $60K” when he first drove the Ultium-based Cadillac LYRIQ back in 2022. He called the SUV “a stunner,” too, heaping praise on the LYRIQ’s styling inside and out before adding that the EV’s ride quality really impressed on long journeys.
Well, if the first mainstream electric Cadillac was a winner at its original, $57,195 starting price (rounded up to $60K for easy math), what could we call it at $10,500 less?
That’s a question that’s suddenly worth asking, thanks to huge GM discounts on the LYRIQ that prompted the automotive pricing analysts at CarsDirect to name the 2024 LYRIQ one of the industry’s “Best New Car Deals” this month:
A slew of incentives can enable you to save big on a 2024 Cadillac LYRIQ. First, EVs eligible for the federal tax credit qualify for $7,500 in Ultium Promise Bonus Cash from GM. Additionally, competing EV owners can score $3,000 in conquest cash.
With more than 100 kWh of battery capacity and 300-plus miles of real-world driving range (plus available 190 kW charging capability) the Cadillac LYRIQ ticks all the boxes – but you don’t have to take just my word for that.
A global shortage of qualified operators is impacting job sites everywhere, precisely at a time when demand for housing, mineral mining, and renewable energy construction is going from peak to peak. That’s why companies from Caterpillar to Tesla to Einride are pushing to advance autonomy the way they are.
First revealed as a concept in 2021, Volvo CE’s CX01 autonomous “single drum” asphalt roller concept has seen continuous development in the years since. Making its Volvo Days debut, the CX01 has shed the original single drum design for a “split drum,” with each half being controlled by an internalized, independent electric motor.
The CX01’s electric motors not only help to propel and steer the roller, they also vibrate the drums individually, using some trick software calibration to effectively “cancel each other out,” delivering all the benefits of vibrating drum rollers without the noise.
It’s so smart, you guys
It’s also worth noting that the CX01 is something of an “extended range” EV, instead of a “pure” BEV. That’s because it uses a small, 1.4L diesel engine to spin a generator that powers not batteries, but capacitors (those blue things, above right). Those capacitors can be charged on grid power (or from an accompanying TC13 trench compactor), but they’re much better than batteries at releasing energy really quickly, enabling the diesel to operate at its maximum efficiency while maintaining extremely precise, high-torque movement from the motors.
Volvo CE engineers envision a team CX01 rollers units deployed on larger job sites that could work together and communicate with other pieces of equipment on the site. The connected equipment could help survey the job site, report on the conditions of the mat (density, temperature, and passes), and leverage AI to determine when and where to compact without the need for human operators.
All of which is great, sure – but they had me at “giant OneWheel.”
Volvo TA15 autonomous electric haul truck
Volvo TA15 autonomous haul truck; photo by the author.
Part of Volvo CE’ “TARA” line of autonomous products, the “production ready” TA15 autonomous electric haul trucks are already part of a number of pilot programs on Volvo customer job sites. Being autonomous, they’re ideally suited to performing repetitive routes, dozens of times per day, without exposing human operators to fatigue or injury.
“TARA enables you to downsize and replace larger diesel-powered vehicles with a fleet of autonomous electric Volvo TA15s capable of running 24/7,” reads the official TARA release. “This not only helps you cut emissions and increase productivity, it will also help you rightsize your machinery and optimize your hauling routes.”
And that brings us to the real topic at hand: sustainability.
Electrek’s Take
Volvo SD110 single drum roller, via Volvo CE.
As we’ve often discussed on The Heavy Equipment Podcast, there are two types of sustainability, and both are important. The first is the “classic” version of sustainability, in that our choices need to sustain the planet and environment we live in. The second is sustainability of the business – the ability to keep doing business in a way that ensures the survival of the business, itself.
Looking at the conventional Volvo SD110 conventional roller, above, you can see the incredible amount of materials – of steel, rubber, plastic, glass, etc. – that simply isn’t needed to produce the CX01 roller we started this article with.
All that added mass has a massive hidden carbon cost. The cost of getting those materials out of the ground, the need for bigger, heavier roads to support the weight of the machine, and the bigger, burlier trucks and trailers needed to transport it. Heck, even the operator’s commute to and from the job site adds to the carbon cost of the SD110, over and above the harmful emissions from its diesel engine’s exhaust stack.
The CX01? It’s objectively more sustainable than the SD110 roller in every way, and does pretty much the same job.
Following successful inbound implementations in the Pacific Northwest, North Carolina, and Mexico, Daimler Trucks North America (DTNA) is expanding the reach of its electric semi fleet into Arizona with long-time associate JB Hunt.
JB Hunt will add the new Freightliner eCascadia electric semi to its Arizona fleet immediately, and put it to work delivering aftermarket truck parts from DTNA’s parts distribution center (PDC) in Phoenix to multiple DTNA dealers along a dedicated route.
The electric Freightliner truck is expected to cover approximately 100 miles in a given day before heading “home” to a Detroit eFill charger installed at Daimler’s Phoenix facility.
“This solution with DTNA is a great example of our commitment to supporting customers’ efforts to reduce their carbon footprint and work towards energy transition,” explains Greer Woodruff, executive vice president of safety, sustainability and maintenance at JB Hunt. “JB Hunt owns and operates several eCascadias on behalf of customers, and our drivers have really enjoyed their in-cab experience. As customer interest continues to grow, we are here to enable their pursuit for a more sustainable supply chain in the most economic means possible.”
Daimler is analyzing future expansion opportunities throughout its internal parts distribution and logistics with an eye on electrifing additional routes and further reducing the carbon footprint of its logistics operations.