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Reform UK has pulled to within two points of the Conservatives, according to the latest YouGov poll of the election campaign for Sky News.

The latest exclusive weekly survey, conducted on Monday and Tuesday before the head-to-head TV debate, puts Labour on 40%, the Tories on 19%, Reform UK on 17%, the Liberal Democrats on 10% and the Greens on 7%.

Most of the poll, which was carried out using different methodology to last week’s survey, was conducted after Nigel Farage became leader of Reform on Monday.

Compared to the last voting intention poll taken on Thursday and Friday, the Conservatives are down two, Labour is down six, the Lib Dems are up two and Reform is up two.

This means under the new methodology, the lead for Labour is 21 points.

YouGov interviewed 2,144 GB adults online.

The impact of the methodological change – which applies modelling to turnout and the behaviour of don’t knows – is typically to reduce the Labour lead by three and increase the Lib Dem share by about two. There is usually no boost to the Tory share.

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YouGov says the impact on this particular poll of the methodological change is slightly bigger because of rounding, and the Labour lead under the old method would have been 27 points, up from the 25-point lead at the end of last week.

Richard Tice and Nigel Farage during the campaign launch.
Pic: PA
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Nigel Farage (R) has taken over Richard Tice (L) as leader of the Reform party. Pic: PA

The poll is likely to worry some Conservatives, who fear losing voters on the right of their party to Reform UK – especially now Mr Farage is at the helm.

The veteran Eurosceptic on Monday announced he would not only take over as Reform’s leader, but also stand as a candidate in Clacton, Essex.

Read More:
What is the Reform party and what are their policies?
Panic will spread through Tory ranks after stunning poll
Woman charged with assault after milkshake thrown at Farage

This will be his eighth time trying to be an MP, having never previously succeeded.

He had initially ruled out standing but said he had a “terrible sense of guilt” for not putting himself forward when the election was called.

Mr Farage has ruled out doing a deal with the Tories – as he did in 2019 when Reform was known as the Brexit party – saying at his campaign launch that he has been “betrayed by a Conservative Party I have given considerable help to”.

He said his goal was to win “millions” more votes than UKIP had, which was another party he previously led, and make Reform the official opposition.

A YouGov MRP poll of 53,334 people in England and Wales and 5,541 in Scotland, published on Monday, had the Conservatives likely to win Clacton but that was before Mr Farage made his dramatic announcement to return to frontline politics.

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PM issues warning to European leaders ahead of ECHR talks

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PM issues warning to European leaders ahead of ECHR talks

Sir Keir Starmer has called for a tougher approach to policing Europe’s borders ahead of a meeting between leaders to discuss a potential shake-up of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).

The prime minister said the way in which the ECHR is interpreted in courts must be modernised, with critics long claiming the charter is a major barrier to deportations of illegal migrants.

His deputy, David Lammy, will today be in Strasbourg, France, with fellow European ministers to discuss reforms of how the agreement is interpreted in law across the continent.

In an opinion piece for The Guardian, Sir Keir and his Danish counterpart, Mette Frederiksen, said the change was necessary to prevent voters from turning to populist political opponents.

Small boat crossings have risen this year. File pic: PA
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Small boat crossings have risen this year. File pic: PA

What’s the issue with the ECHR?

The ECHR, which is the foundation of Britain’s Human Rights Act, includes the right to family life in its Article 8.

That is often used as grounds to prevent deportations of illegal migrants from the UK.

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There has also been a rise in cases where Article 3 rights, prohibiting torture, were used to halt deportations over claims migrants’ healthcare needs could not be met in their home country, according to the Home Office.

The Conservatives and Reform UK have both said they would leave the ECHR if in power, while the Labour government has insisted it will remain a member of the treaty.

But Sir Keir admitted in his joint op-ed that the “current asylum framework was created for another era”.

“In a world with mass mobility, yesterday’s answers do not work. We will always protect those fleeing war and terror – but the world has changed, and asylum systems must change with it,” the two prime ministers wrote, as they push for a “modernisation of the interpretation” of the ECHR.

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System ‘more than broken’, says asylum seeker

What is happening today?

Mr Lammy is attending an informal summit of the Council of Europe.

He is expected to say: “We must strike a careful balance between individual rights and the public’s interest.

“The definition of ‘family life’ can’t be stretched to prevent the removal of people with no right to remain in the country [and] the threshold of ‘inhuman and degrading treatment’ must be constrained to the most serious issues.”

It is understood that a political declaration signed by the gathered ministers could carry enough weight to directly influence how the European Court of Human Rights interprets the treaty.

The UK government is expected to bring forward its own legislation to change how Article 8 is interpreted in UK courts, and is also considering a re-evaluation of the threshold for Article 3 rights.

David Lammy will swap Westminster for Strasbourg today
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David Lammy will swap Westminster for Strasbourg today

The plans have been criticised by Amnesty International UK, which described them as weakening protections.

“Human rights were never meant to be optional or reserved for comfortable and secure times. They were designed to be a compass, our conscience, when the politics of fear and division try to steer us wrong,” Steve Valdez-Symonds, the organisation’s refugee and migrant rights programme director, said.

Sir Keir’s government has already adopted several hardline immigration measures – modelled on those introduced by Ms Federiksen’s Danish government – to decrease the number of migrants crossing the Channel via small boats.

Read more: UK’s immigration shake-up explained

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Beth Rigby: The two big problems with Labour’s asylum plan

Starmer-Macron deal ‘a sticking plaster’

Meanwhile, French far-right leader Jordan Bardella told The Daily Telegraph he would rewrite his country’s border policy to allow British patrol boats to push back small vessels carrying migrants into France’s waters if he were elected.

The National Rally leader called Sir Keir’s “one-in, one-out” agreement with Emmanuel Macron, which includes Britain returning illegal arrivals in exchange for accepting a matching number of legitimate asylum seekers, a “sticking plaster” and “smokescreen”.

Read more from Sky News:
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Far-right, 30, and France’s most popular politician

He said that only a complete overhaul of French immigration policy would stop the Channel crossings.

Mr Bardella is currently leading in opinion polls to win the first round of France’s next presidential election, expected to happen in 2027, to replace Mr Macron.

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Trump to begin interviews with Fed chair finalists this week: FT

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Trump to begin interviews with Fed chair finalists this week: FT

The race for the new US Federal Reserve chair is nearing the finish line, with US President Donald Trump reportedly set to begin interviewing finalists for the top job this week. 

According to a report from the Financial Times on Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has presented a list of four names to the White House.

One of these is former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, whom Bessent is scheduled to meet with on Wednesday. Another is National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett, who is seen as the frontrunner for the role. 

Another two names would be picked from a list of other finalists, which includes Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, and BlackRock chief investment officer Rick Rieder.

Source: Financial Times

Trump and Bessent are expected to hold at least one interview next week, as a decision looks likely to be announced in January.

However, Trump has revealed he already has his eye on one particular candidate. 

“We’re going to be looking at a couple different people, but I have a pretty good idea of who I want,” Trump said to journalists on Air Force One on Tuesday. 

Kevin Hassett is a frontrunner for Fed chair role

The upcoming round of interviews suggests that Hassett may not be the clear lock in for the role as previously thought, though he is seen as the favorite.

Earlier this month, prediction market odds on Kalshi and Polymarket shot up for Hassett significantly following comments from Trump at the White House on Dec. 2. 

While welcoming guests, Trump labeled Hassett as “potential Fed chair” leading many to assume the president had let a major hint slip.

Related: Trump’s national security strategy is silent on crypto, blockchain

With Hassett’s odds spiking to 85% after Trump’s comments last week, they have since declined to around 73% for Hassett, while Warsh’s odds sit at 13% on Kalshi at the time of writing, which has floated around this range over December. 

Odds for next Fed chair. Source: Kalshi

Regardless of who ends up taking over as chair, the move is bound to impact crypto markets under the new leadership.