Reform UK pulls to within two points of Tories in latest YouGov poll

Published

1 year ago

June 5, 2024

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Reform UK has pulled to within two points of the Conservatives, according to the latest YouGov poll of the election campaign for Sky News.

The latest exclusive weekly survey, conducted on Monday and Tuesday before the head-to-head TV debate, puts Labour on 40%, the Tories on 19%, Reform UK on 17%, the Liberal Democrats on 10% and the Greens on 7%.

Most of the poll, which was carried out using different methodology to last week’s survey, was conducted after Nigel Farage became leader of Reform on Monday.

Compared to the last voting intention poll taken on Thursday and Friday, the Conservatives are down two, Labour is down six, the Lib Dems are up two and Reform is up two.

This means under the new methodology, the lead for Labour is 21 points.

YouGov interviewed 2,144 GB adults online.

The impact of the methodological change – which applies modelling to turnout and the behaviour of don’t knows – is typically to reduce the Labour lead by three and increase the Lib Dem share by about two. There is usually no boost to the Tory share.

YouGov says the impact on this particular poll of the methodological change is slightly bigger because of rounding, and the Labour lead under the old method would have been 27 points, up from the 25-point lead at the end of last week.

The poll is likely to worry some Conservatives, who fear losing voters on the right of their party to Reform UK – especially now Mr Farage is at the helm.

The veteran Eurosceptic on Monday announced he would not only take over as Reform’s leader, but also stand as a candidate in Clacton, Essex.

This will be his eighth time trying to be an MP, having never previously succeeded.

He had initially ruled out standing but said he had a “terrible sense of guilt” for not putting himself forward when the election was called.

Mr Farage has ruled out doing a deal with the Tories – as he did in 2019 when Reform was known as the Brexit party – saying at his campaign launch that he has been “betrayed by a Conservative Party I have given considerable help to”.

He said his goal was to win “millions” more votes than UKIP had, which was another party he previously led, and make Reform the official opposition.

A YouGov MRP poll of 53,334 people in England and Wales and 5,541 in Scotland, published on Monday, had the Conservatives likely to win Clacton but that was before Mr Farage made his dramatic announcement to return to frontline politics.

Politics

Kemi Badenoch accuses Sir Keir Starmer of ‘lying’ about Peter Mandelson prior to sacking him

Published

10 hours ago

September 13, 2025

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Kemi Badenoch accuses Sir Keir Starmer of 'lying' about Peter Mandelson prior to sacking him

Kemi Badenoch has accused Sir Keir Starmer of “lying to the whole country” about what he knew regarding Peter Mandelson’s correspondence with Jeffrey Epstein.

Lord Mandelson was this week stripped of his position as ambassador to the US amid fresh scrutiny over his years-long friendship with the convicted paedophile.

The prime minister initially defended the Labour peer but removed him from his post on Thursday after newly seen emails revealed he sent messages of support to Epstein even as he faced jail for sex offences in 2008.

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The Times has now reported that Downing Street and the Foreign Office were aware of the emails on Tuesday – a day before Sir Keir gave Lord Mandelson his backing at Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs).

In a post on X, Conservative leader Ms Badenoch wrote: “Looks like the Prime Minister and Labour MPs spent the week lying to the whole country about what they knew regarding Mandelson’s involvement with convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.”

She continued: “If No 10 had those emails for 48 hours before acting, it means he lied at PMQs and ministers lied again about new additional information. These are yet more errors of judgment.

“The Prime Minister has very serious questions to answer. The only way to clear this up is full transparency about who knew what, and when.”

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Sources said Sir Keir was not aware of the contents of the emails when he told MPs he had “confidence” in Lord Mandelson.

A media enquiry outlining details of the messages between Lord Mandelson and Epstein was sent to the Foreign Office on Tuesday, and passed on to Number 10.

Sir Oliver Robbins, the permanent under-secretary at the Foreign Office, asked Lord Mandelson about the emails on Tuesday, but did not receive a response until the following day.

Sir Keir is understood not to have been aware of the contents of the emails until Wednesday evening.

Speaking to Sky News, one Labour MP has called for more information on what happened behind closed doors at No 10 this week.

Jo White, MP for Bassetlaw, in Nottinghamshire, said: “We cannot move on until we find out how he [Sir Keir] was not briefed properly before PMQs.”

“What he needs to do now is get on top and sort out this mess,” she said. “Suspend the whip from Peter Mandelson and expel him from the party, then have a transparent enquiry about what went wrong at No.10.”

This came as Sir Keir enjoyed some time away from Downing Street.

The prime minister was on Saturday pictured watching Arsenal face Nottingham Forest in a Premier League match at the Emirates Stadium.

Lord Mandelson’s exit came after less than a fortnight after another high-profile loss for the Labour government, as Angela Rayner was forced to quit as deputy prime minister and deputy Labour leader over her tax affairs.

As Sir Keir has faced a scandal-hit start to the month, a growing number of Labour MPs have begun calling his leadership into question.

Lucy Powell, who is running to replace Ms Rayner as Labour’s deputy leader, has called for a “change of culture” at Downing Street.

“We’ve got a bit of a groupthink happening at the top, that culture of not being receptive to interrogation, not being receptive to differing views,” she told The Guardian newspaper.

Meanwhile, senior Labour MP Emily Thornberry has written to the new foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, demanding answers about the vetting process for UK diplomats in the wake of Lord Mandelson’s sacking.

Politics

Man admits arson after major fire at MP Sharon Hodgson’s constituency office

Published

16 hours ago

September 13, 2025

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Man admits arson after major fire at MP Sharon Hodgson's constituency office

A man has admitted arson after a major fire at an MP’s constituency office.

Joshua Oliver, 28, pleaded guilty to starting the fire which destroyed the office of Labour MP Sharon Hodgson, at Vermont House in Washington, Tyne and Wear.

The fire also wrecked a small charity for people with very rare genetic diseases and an NHS mental health service for veterans.

The guilty plea was entered at Newcastle Magistrates’ Court on the basis that it was reckless rather than intentional.

The Crown did not accept that basis of plea.

Oliver, of no fixed address, had been living in a tent nearby, the court heard.

Northumbria Police previously said it was “alerted to a fire at a premises on Woodland Terrace in the Washington area” shortly after 12.20am on Thursday.

“Emergency services attended and no one is reported to have been injured in the incident,” it added.

Drone footage from the scene showed extensive damage to the building.

A spokesperson for the Crown Prosecution Service said: “Our prosecutors have worked to establish that there is sufficient evidence to bring the case to trial and that it is in the public interest to pursue criminal proceedings.

“We have worked closely with Northumbria Police as they carried out their investigation.”

Oliver was remanded in custody and will appear at Newcastle Crown Court on Tuesday, 14 October.