Reform UK has pulled to within two points of the Conservatives, according to the latest YouGov poll of the election campaign for Sky News.
The latest exclusive weekly survey, conducted on Monday and Tuesday before the head-to-head TV debate, puts Labour on 40%, the Tories on 19%, Reform UK on 17%, the Liberal Democrats on 10% and the Greens on 7%.
Compared to the last voting intention poll taken on Thursday and Friday, the Conservatives are down two, Labour is down six, the Lib Dems are up two and Reform is up two.
This means under the new methodology, the lead for Labour is 21 points.
YouGov interviewed 2,144 GB adults online.
The impact of the methodological change – which applies modelling to turnout and the behaviour of don’t knows – is typically to reduce the Labour lead by three and increase the Lib Dem share by about two. There is usually no boost to the Tory share.
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YouGov says the impact on this particular poll of the methodological change is slightly bigger because of rounding, and the Labour lead under the old method would have been 27 points, up from the 25-point lead at the end of last week.
Image: Nigel Farage (R) has taken over Richard Tice (L) as leader of the Reform party. Pic: PA
The poll is likely to worry some Conservatives, who fear losing voters on the right of their party to Reform UK – especially now Mr Farage is at the helm.
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The veteran Eurosceptic on Monday announced he would not only take over as Reform’s leader, but also stand as a candidate in Clacton, Essex.
This will be his eighth time trying to be an MP, having never previously succeeded.
He had initially ruled out standing but said he had a “terrible sense of guilt” for not putting himself forward when the election was called.
Mr Farage has ruled out doing a deal with the Tories – as he did in 2019 when Reform was known as the Brexit party – saying at his campaign launch that he has been “betrayed by a Conservative Party I have given considerable help to”.
He said his goal was to win “millions” more votes than UKIP had, which was another party he previously led, and make Reform the official opposition.
A YouGov MRP pollof 53,334 people in England and Wales and 5,541 in Scotland, published on Monday, had the Conservatives likely to win Clacton but that was before Mr Farage made his dramatic announcement to return to frontline politics.
Sir Keir Starmer has called for a tougher approach to policing Europe’s borders ahead of a meeting between leaders to discuss a potential shake-up of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).
The prime minister said the way in which the ECHR is interpreted in courts must be modernised, with critics long claiming the charter is a major barrier to deportations of illegal migrants.
His deputy, David Lammy, will today be in Strasbourg, France, with fellow European ministers to discuss reforms of how the agreement is interpreted in law across the continent.
In an opinion piece for The Guardian, Sir Keir and his Danish counterpart, Mette Frederiksen, said the change was necessary to prevent voters from turning to populist political opponents.
Image: Small boat crossings have risen this year. File pic: PA
What’s the issue with the ECHR?
The ECHR, which is the foundation of Britain’s Human Rights Act, includes the right to family life in its Article 8.
That is often used as grounds to prevent deportations of illegal migrants from the UK.
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There has also been a rise in cases where Article 3 rights, prohibiting torture, were used to halt deportations over claims migrants’ healthcare needs could not be met in their home country, according to the Home Office.
The Conservatives and Reform UK have both said they would leave the ECHR if in power, while the Labour government has insisted it will remain a member of the treaty.
But Sir Keir admitted in his joint op-ed that the “current asylum framework was created for another era”.
“In a world with mass mobility, yesterday’s answers do not work. We will always protect those fleeing war and terror – but the world has changed, and asylum systems must change with it,” the two prime ministers wrote, as they push for a “modernisation of the interpretation” of the ECHR.
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System ‘more than broken’, says asylum seeker
What is happening today?
Mr Lammy is attending an informal summit of the Council of Europe.
He is expected to say: “We must strike a careful balance between individual rights and the public’s interest.
“The definition of ‘family life’ can’t be stretched to prevent the removal of people with no right to remain in the country [and] the threshold of ‘inhuman and degrading treatment’ must be constrained to the most serious issues.”
It is understood that a political declaration signed by the gathered ministers could carry enough weight to directly influence how the European Court of Human Rights interprets the treaty.
The UK government is expected to bring forward its own legislation to change how Article 8 is interpreted in UK courts, and is also considering a re-evaluation of the threshold for Article 3 rights.
Image: David Lammy will swap Westminster for Strasbourg today
The plans have been criticised by Amnesty International UK, which described them as weakening protections.
“Human rights were never meant to be optional or reserved for comfortable and secure times. They were designed to be a compass, our conscience, when the politics of fear and division try to steer us wrong,” Steve Valdez-Symonds, the organisation’s refugee and migrant rights programme director, said.
Sir Keir’s government has already adopted several hardline immigration measures – modelled on those introduced by Ms Federiksen’s Danish government – to decrease the number of migrants crossing the Channel via small boats.
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Starmer-Macron deal ‘a sticking plaster’
Meanwhile, French far-right leader Jordan Bardella told The Daily Telegraph he would rewrite his country’s border policy to allow British patrol boats to push back small vessels carrying migrants into France’s waters if he were elected.
The National Rally leader called Sir Keir’s “one-in, one-out” agreement with Emmanuel Macron, which includes Britain returning illegal arrivals in exchange for accepting a matching number of legitimate asylum seekers, a “sticking plaster” and “smokescreen”.
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Far-right, 30, and France’s most popular politician
He said that only a complete overhaul of French immigration policy would stop the Channel crossings.
Mr Bardella is currently leading in opinion polls to win the first round of France’s next presidential election, expected to happen in 2027, to replace Mr Macron.
The race for the new US Federal Reserve chair is nearing the finish line, with US President Donald Trump reportedly set to begin interviewing finalists for the top job this week.
According to a report from the Financial Times on Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has presented a list of four names to the White House.
One of these is former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, whom Bessent is scheduled to meet with on Wednesday. Another is National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett, who is seen as the frontrunner for the role.
Another two names would be picked from a list of other finalists, which includes Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, and BlackRock chief investment officer Rick Rieder.
Trump and Bessent are expected to hold at least one interview next week, as a decision looks likely to be announced in January.
However, Trump has revealed he already has his eye on one particular candidate.
“We’re going to be looking at a couple different people, but I have a pretty good idea of who I want,” Trump said to journalists on Air Force One on Tuesday.
Kevin Hassett is a frontrunner for Fed chair role
The upcoming round of interviews suggests that Hassett may not be the clear lock in for the role as previously thought, though he is seen as the favorite.
Earlier this month, prediction market odds on Kalshi and Polymarket shot up for Hassett significantly following comments from Trump at the White House on Dec. 2.
While welcoming guests, Trump labeled Hassett as “potential Fed chair” leading many to assume the president had let a major hint slip.
With Hassett’s odds spiking to 85% after Trump’s comments last week, they have since declined to around 73% for Hassett, while Warsh’s odds sit at 13% on Kalshi at the time of writing, which has floated around this range over December.
Regardless of who ends up taking over as chair, the move is bound to impact crypto markets under the new leadership.
If elected, Hassett has asserted that he will be apolitical in terms of running the Fed, despite his close ties to Trump. Speaking with The Wall Street Journal this week, Hassett said that “You just do the right thing” when asked if he would blindly follow orders from Trump.
“Suppose that inflation has gotten from, say, 2.5% to 4%. You can’t cut,” Hassett said, adding that he would rely on his own “judgment, which I think the president trusts.”
Sir Keir Starmer has declared it his “moral mission” to “turn the tide on the lost decade of young kids left as collateral damage”.
The government launches its 10-year youth plan today, which has pledged £500m to reviving youth services.
Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy has also warned that young people are now “the most isolated in generations” and face challenges that are “urgent and demand a major change in direction”.
But despite the strong language, the Conservatives have warned that “under Labour, the outlook for the next generation is increasingly bleak”.
Launching the 10-year strategy, Sir Keir said: “As a dad and as prime minister, I believe it is our generation’s greatest responsibility to turn the tide on the lost decade of young kids left as collateral damage. It is our moral mission.
“Today, my government sets out a clear, ambitious and deliverable plan – investing in the next generation so that every child has the chance to see their talents take them as far as their ability can.”
What’s in the government’s strategy?
Under the plans, the government will seek to give 500,000 more young people across England access to a trusted adult outside their homes – who are assigned through a formal programme – and online resources about staying safe.
The prime minister said the plans will also “ensure” that those who choose to do apprenticeships rather than go to university “will have the same respect and opportunity as everyone else”.
OTHER MEASURES INCLUDE
Creating 70 “young futures” hubs by March 2029, as part of a £70m programme to provide access to youth workers – the first eight of these will open by March next year;
Establishing a £60m Richer Young Lives fund to support organisations in “underserved” areas to deliver high-quality youth work and activities;
Improving wellbeing, personal development and life skills through a new £22.5m programme of support around the school day – which will operate in up to 400 schools;
Investing £15m to recruit and train youth workers, volunteers and “trusted adults”;
Improving youth services by putting £5m into local partnerships, information-sharing and digital tech.
The plan comes following a so-called “state of the nation” survey commissioned by Ms Nandy, which heard from more than 14,000 young people across England.
Launching the strategy, she said: “Young people have been crystal clear in speaking up in our consultation: they need support for their mental health, spaces to meet with people in their communities and real opportunities to thrive. We will give them what they want.”
Image: Lisa Nandy will speak about the plan on Sky News on Wednesday morning. Pic: PA
But the Conservatives have criticised the government for scrapping the National Citizen Service (NCS), which ended in March this year.
Shadow culture secretary Nigel Huddlestone said “any renewed investment in youth services is of course welcome”, but said Labour’s “economic mismanagement and tax hikes are forcing businesses to close, shrinking opportunities while inflation continues to climb”.