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Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer will be interrogated by Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby and members of the public tonight.

During The Battle For Number 10, they will talk and be questioned at length about their ambitions, so viewers can understand in detail what their plans are.

Mr Sunak is somewhat on the back foot as he has to defend his party’s 14 years in government, while Labour is yet to publish its manifesto, making it harder to get to the bottom of some of its plans.

But here Sky News picks apart some of the claims – and counterclaims – each is likely to make.

Cost of living

Labour likes to claim families have become £5,883 worse off in total over the last five years.

But fact-checking organisation Full Fact pointed out the figure doesn’t take into account a broad enough basket of goods, or changes in wages or benefits over the same time.

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Factoring these in, the decrease in real disposable income is more like £166, the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has found.

Meanwhile the Tories claim Labour would leave families £2,000 out of pocket. But the calculations behind it are based on assumptions, as Labour has not yet published its manifesto, and the Tories assume Labour’s plans would be funded by taxes rather than possible borrowing.

Mr Sunak defends his record on the basis of the COVID furlough scheme – which he oversaw as chancellor – and the fact inflation has finally fallen to 2.3%, down from a 42-year record high of 11.1% in October 2022.

But external factors worked in the PM’s favour.

The worst price shocks from the war in Ukraine (namely on fuel and food) eased regardless of government policies.

However, falling inflation does not mean falling prices, and any amount of inflation still means prices are rising on top of already higher costs.

Wage growth has now overtaken inflation – but there’s still a gap between how much prices have increased vs wages in the long run, according to ONS data.

This, combined with stubbornly high interest rates which increase the cost of mortgage rates and other loans, explains why people are still feeling the pinch.

NHS

The waiting list for NHS England peaked at 7.8 million last August – and has since inched down to 7.5 million.

But as other parties love to point out, it is still 300,000 appointments higher than the 7.2 million in January 2023, when Mr Sunak originally pledged to cut it.

Labour says it would get waiting times back down to a maximum of four months – as per the NHS target – by the end of their first term.

Apple news NHS waiting list

They’d do this by adding “40,000 extra appointments and operations every week”, including more on evenings and weekends, and buying more equipment.

Sky News analysis has shown that these measures alone may do little to bridge the gap, however.

It takes five additional NHS appointments to remove one treatment pathway from the waiting list, according to thinktank The Heath Foundation.

With this conversion rate, Labour’s 40,000 additional appointments equates to 8,000 removed from the waiting list, shown in the bar in orange in the chart above – still falling far short of tackling demand.

Migration

Both leaders are keen to position themselves as tough on migration, saying that the record levels of net migration since Brexit in 2016 – reaching 685,000 last year – are too high.

Mr Sunak claims his plans, which include the controversial Rwanda deportation policy and an unspecified cap on net migration numbers, are the answer.

Apple News net migration

But, as Sky News analysis has already shown, caps have failed in the past.

Former prime ministers David Cameron and Theresa May both vowed to cap net migration in the “tens of thousands”. Both failed.

Meanwhile, the Rwanda policy addresses only a tiny fraction of overall numbers, despite its hefty price tag.

It is already set to cost £370m before any removals take place, according to government spending watchdog the National Audit Office (NAO), and could reach an estimated £661m.

It is designed to deter small boats crossings, but these make up only a fraction of asylum claims, and asylum seekers accounted for only 81,000 migrants last year, compared with 432,000 workers and 379,000 students.

Apple news Rwanda in context

Labour have confirmed they will scrap the scheme “straight away”, while the Conservatives have a poor track record of implementing the scheme, so it remains to be seen what the final bill will be.

Nearly two thirds (64%) of 229,000 workers visas granted in 2023 were for healthcare roles like nurses and care workers.

The Tories say their Albania deal shows that deterrence works, with numbers down 90%.

Labour has pledged to “reform resettlement routes to stop people being exploited by gangs”.

Climate and net zero

A key dividing line is whether to pump more oil and gas from the North Sea.

Mr Sunak wants to “max out” what’s left. Labour says it would stop issuing licences for new projects.

But even though it opposes them, if elected Labour would not actually revoke those handed out by the Tories – which environmentalists have criticised.

The Conservative manifesto says more extraction would “provide energy to homes and businesses across the country”.

But it’s somewhat of a storm in a teacup, because there isn’t much oil or gas left in the North Sea anyway.

The red and blue lines in the chart above show how much – or little – extra the UK might get from new licences – so the decision is more symbolic.

The Tories say they will back renewables, but haven’t really lifted an effective ban on onshore wind farms as promised. Labour wants to double onshore wind power to 35GW by 2030.

Labour’s plans to plug the wells in the North Sea are already putting off some oil majors from turning on the taps at existing projects – and could kill off thousands of jobs, the industry lobby group Offshore Energies UK says.

In reality the parties are more aligned than some of their members would have us believe.

Both back some form of windfall tax until 2029, want to decarbonise most or all electricity by 2030, plan to drive up EVs and want to ramp up solar and offshore wind.

D-Day gaffe

It seems no one in Sunak’s team thought an early departure from D-Day commemorations in Normandy would matter.

But oh how it did, drawing criticism from his own party, as well as Labour, and the general public alike.

The polls have not been kind either.

A snap YouGov survey showed two thirds (65%) of those surveyed found the behaviour to be completely or somewhat unacceptable. This rose to three quarters (75%) among the 65+ age group.

Apple News D Day poll

This was a gift to Labour, and something Starmer will likely want to capitalise on during tonight’s debate.

Battle for no 10 promo

The Battle For Number 10 Leaders Special Event, Wednesday 12 June 7pm-10pm on Sky News – free wherever you get your news.

Freeview channel 233, Sky 501, Virgin 603, BT 313 and streaming on the Sky News website, app and across social channels. It is also available to watch on Sky Showcase.

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‘Physical threat’ from Iran on people living in UK has ‘increased significantly’, watchdog says

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'Physical threat' from Iran on people living in UK has 'increased significantly', watchdog says

The threat of physical attacks by Iran on people living in the UK has increased “significantly” since 2022, according to a new report by parliament’s intelligence watchdog.

Iran poses a “wide-ranging, persistent and unpredictable threat” to the UK, according to the Intelligence and Security Committee.

It also said Iran’s intelligence services were “willing and able – often through third party agents – to attempt assassination within the UK, and kidnap from the UK”.

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
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Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Pic: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/West Asia News Agency/Reuters

The report said there have been 15 murder or kidnap attempts against British citizens or UK-based individuals since the beginning of 2022 and August 2023.

Sky News has approached the Iranian embassy for a comment.

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Millions of Iranians unite in mourning

The report authors add: “Whilst Iran’s activity appears to be less strategic and on a smaller scale than Russia and China, Iran poses a wide-ranging threat to UK national security, which should not be underestimated: it is persistent and crucially – unpredictable.”

The committee also says that while the threat is often focused on dissidents and other opponents to the regime, there is also an increased threat to Jewish and Israeli interests in the UK.

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The report warns that while Iran has not developed a nuclear weapon, it has taken steps towards that goal.

It found that Iran had been “broadly compliant” with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), aimed at limiting its nuclear ambitions.

But since Donald Trump withdrew from that deal in 2018, the report said the nuclear threat had increased and Tehran “had the capability to arm in a relatively short period”.

The UK government is also accused of “fire-fighting” rather than developing a real understanding of Iran.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and military commanders watch as military equipment passes by during the National Army Day parade
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Iran’s president oversees a parade in Tehran in April showing off the country’s military hardware. Pic: West Asia News Agency/Reuters

An Iranian missile is seen during the National Army Day parade ceremony in Tehran
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Missiles are paraded through the capital during the recent National Army Day ceremony. Pic: West Asia News Agency/Reuters

The report says: “The government’s policy on Iran has suffered from a focus on crisis management, driven by concerns over Iran’s nuclear programme, to the exclusion of other issues.

“As one of our expert witnesses told the committee: ‘Strategy is not a word that I think has crossed the lips of policy makers for a while, certainly not in relation to Iran’.”

The committee concluded its evidence-taking in August 2023, the result of two years of work, but the report authors say their conclusions “remain relevant”.

But the report authors questioned whether UK sanctions against individuals would “in practice deliver behavioural change. Or in fact unhelpfully push Iran towards China”.

The committee also said the British government should consider proscribing the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), although some argue it would limit the UK’s ability to talk to and influence Iran.

Read more from Sky News:
Who is Iran’s supreme leader?
Defiant Khamenei makes appearance
Anger in Iran over US and Israeli strikes

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Responding to the report, a UK government spokesperson said: “The government will take action wherever necessary to protect national security, which is a foundation of our plan for change.

“We have already placed Iran on the enhanced tier of the foreign influence registration scheme and introduced further sanctions against individuals and entities linked to Iran, bringing the total number of sanctions to 450.”

British security services say Tehran uses criminal proxies to carry out its work in Britain.

In December, two Romanians were charged after a journalist working for a Persian language media organisation in London was stabbed in the leg. In May, three Iranian men appeared in court charged with assisting Iran’s foreign intelligence service and plotting violence against journalists.

Earlier this year, the UK government said it would require the Iranian state to register everything it does to exert political influence in the UK, because of what it called increasingly aggressive activity.

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‘A constant game of cat and mouse’: Inside the crackdown on illegal moped delivery drivers

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'A constant game of cat and mouse': Inside the crackdown on illegal moped delivery drivers

The first thing you notice when immigration officers stop a possible illegal moped delivery driver is the speed in which the suspect quickly taps on their mobile.

“We’re in their WhatsApp groups – they’ll be telling thousands now that we’re here… so our cover is blown,” the lead immigration officer tells me.

“It’s like a constant game of cat and mouse.”

Twelve Immigration Enforcement officers, part of the Home Office, are joining colleagues from Avon and Somerset Police in a crackdown on road offences and migrants working illegally.

Police chase suspected illegal immigrant working as a delivery drivers

The West of England and Wales has seen the highest number of arrests over the last year for illegal workers outside of London.

“It is a problem… we’re tackling it,” Murad Mohammed, from Immigration Enforcement, says. He covers all the devolved nations.

“This is just one of the operations going on around the country, every day of the week, every month of the year.”

Murad Mohammed from Immigration Enforcement
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Murad Mohammed, from Immigration Enforcement, says his team are attempting to tackle the issue

Just outside the Cabot Circus shopping complex, we stop a young Albanian man who arrived in the UK on the back of a truck.

He’s on an expensive and fast-looking e-bike, with a new-looking Just Eat delivery bag.

He says he just uses it for “groceries” – but the officer isn’t buying it. He’s arrested, but then bailed instantly.

A man inspects the Just Eat food delivery bag of a suspected illegal immigrant working as a delivery driver

We don’t know the specifics of his case, but one officer tells me this suspected offence won’t count against his asylum claim.

Such is the scale of the problem – the backlog, loopholes and the complexity of cases – that trying to keep on top of it feels impossible.

This is one of many raids happening across the UK as part of what the government says is a “blitz” targeting illegal working hotspots.

Angela Eagle, the border security and asylum minister, joins the team for an hour at one of Bristol’s retail parks, scattered with fast food chains and, therefore, delivery bikes.

Angela Eagle, Minister for Border Security and Asylum
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Border security and asylum minister, Angela Eagle, speaks to Sky News

She says arrests for illegal working are up over the last year by 51% from the year before, to more than 7,000.

“If we find you working, you can lose access to the hotel or the support you have [been] given under false pretences,” she said.

“We are cracking down on that abuse, and we intend to keep doing so.”

A suspected illegal immigrant working as a delivery driver being arrested

There are reports that asylum seekers can rent legitimate delivery-driver accounts within hours of arriving in the country – skipping employment legality checks.

Uber Eats, Deliveroo, and Just Eat all told Sky News they’re continuing to strengthen the technology they use to remove anyone working illegally.

But a new Border Security Bill, working its way through Parliament, could see companies fined £60,000 for each illegal worker discovered, director disqualifications and potential prison sentences of up to five years.

“I had them all in to see me last week and I told them in no uncertain terms that we take a very tough line on this kind of abuse and they’ve got to change their systems so they can drive it out and off their platforms,” the minister tells me.

Read more:
Welfare bill passes final Commons stage after another concession
Ex-Tory chairman defects to Reform
Wealth tax could be coming to the UK – what is it?

The gig economy – so prevalent in every city – creates another incentive for those wanting to risk their lives coming to the UK illegally.

More than 20,000 migrants have crossed the English Channel to the UK in 2025 – a record number at this point of the year.

A suspected illegal immigrant working as a delivery driver holds his helmet

For some of those who arrive, a bike and a phone provide a way to repay debts to gang masters.

There were eight arrests today in Bristol, one or two taken into custody, but it was 12 hours of hard work by a dozen immigration officers and the support of the police.

As two mopeds are pushed onto a low-loader, you can’t help but feel, despite the best intentions, that at the moment, this is a losing battle.

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This flimsy vessel carrying migrants could reach British waters in a few hours’ time

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This flimsy vessel carrying migrants could be hours away from reaching British waters

We see the boat from a distance – the orange of the life jackets reflected in the rising sun.

And as we draw closer, we can make out dozens of people crowded on board as it sets off from the shore, from a beach near Dunkirk.

There is no sign of any police activity on the shore, and there are no police vessels in the water.

Instead, the migrants crammed into an inflatable dinghy are being watched by us, on board a private boat, and the looming figure of the Minck, a French search and rescue ship that soon arrives.

Picture to go with Adam Parsons' eyewitness of migrants crossing on 10/07/25
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Minck, a French search and rescue ship, shadows the boat

The dinghy meanders. It’s not heading towards Britain but rather hugging the coast.

A few of the passengers wave at us cheerfully, but then the boat starts to head back towards the shore.

Picture to go with Adam Parsons' eyewitness of migrants crossing on 10/07/25
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Sky’s Adam Parsons at the scene

As it nears a different beach, we see a police vehicle – a dune buggy – heading down to meet it.

Normal practice is for French police officers to slice through the material of any of these small boats that end up back on shore.

Two police officers get out of the buggy and wait. A police helicopter arrives and circles above, performing a tight circle over the heads of the migrants.

The police think they might be about to go back on to the beach; in fact, these passengers know that most of them are staying put.

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The boat stops a short distance from the shore and four people jump out. As they wade towards the beach, the boat turns and starts to head back out to sea.

We see the two police officers approach these four men and have a brief conversation.

They don’t appear to check the bags they are carrying and, if they do question them about why they left the boat, it is the most cursory of conversations.

In reality, these people probably don’t speak French but they were almost certainly involved in arranging this crossing, which is against the law. But all four walk away, disappearing into the dunes at the back of the beach.

Read more:
Why do so many from around the world try to cross the Channel?
Channel crossings rise by 50% in first six months of 2025

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Why do migrants want to come to the UK?

We follow the boat as it chugs off in the direction of Britain, carrying around 50 people.

The Minck returns to shadowing its progress, but its job is limited to offering help if the boat gets into trouble.

Otherwise, if the engine keeps working, then this flimsy vessel will reach British waters in a few hours’ time.

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