Five questions leaders could face in tonight’s Sky News event – and what the data really says
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer will be interrogated by Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby and members of the public tonight.
During The Battle For Number 10, they will talk and be questioned at length about their ambitions, so viewers can understand in detail what their plans are.
Mr Sunak is somewhat on the back foot as he has to defend his party’s 14 years in government, while Labour is yet to publish its manifesto, making it harder to get to the bottom of some of its plans.
But here Sky News picks apart some of the claims – and counterclaims – each is likely to make.
Cost of living
Labour likes to claim families have become £5,883 worse off in total over the last five years.
But fact-checking organisation Full Fact pointed out the figure doesn’t take into account a broad enough basket of goods, or changes in wages or benefits over the same time.
Factoring these in, the decrease in real disposable income is more like £166, the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has found.
Meanwhile the Tories claim Labour would leave families £2,000 out of pocket. But the calculations behind it are based on assumptions, as Labour has not yet published its manifesto, and the Tories assume Labour’s plans would be funded by taxes rather than possible borrowing.
Mr Sunak defends his record on the basis of the COVID furlough scheme – which he oversaw as chancellor – and the fact inflation has finally fallen to 2.3%, down from a 42-year record high of 11.1% in October 2022.
But external factors worked in the PM’s favour.
The worst price shocks from the war in Ukraine (namely on fuel and food) eased regardless of government policies.
However, falling inflation does not mean falling prices, and any amount of inflation still means prices are rising on top of already higher costs.
Wage growth has now overtaken inflation – but there’s still a gap between how much prices have increased vs wages in the long run, according to ONS data.
This, combined with stubbornly high interest rates which increase the cost of mortgage rates and other loans, explains why people are still feeling the pinch.
NHS
The waiting list for NHS England peaked at 7.8 million last August – and has since inched down to 7.5 million.
But as other parties love to point out, it is still 300,000 appointments higher than the 7.2 million in January 2023, when Mr Sunak originally pledged to cut it.
Labour says it would get waiting times back down to a maximum of four months – as per the NHS target – by the end of their first term.
They’d do this by adding “40,000 extra appointments and operations every week”, including more on evenings and weekends, and buying more equipment.
Sky News analysis has shown that these measures alone may do little to bridge the gap, however.
It takes five additional NHS appointments to remove one treatment pathway from the waiting list, according to thinktank The Heath Foundation.
With this conversion rate, Labour’s 40,000 additional appointments equates to 8,000 removed from the waiting list, shown in the bar in orange in the chart above – still falling far short of tackling demand.
Migration
Both leaders are keen to position themselves as tough on migration, saying that the record levels of net migration since Brexit in 2016 – reaching 685,000 last year – are too high.
Mr Sunak claims his plans, which include the controversial Rwanda deportation policy and an unspecified cap on net migration numbers, are the answer.
But, as Sky News analysis has already shown, caps have failed in the past.
Former prime ministers David Cameron and Theresa May both vowed to cap net migration in the “tens of thousands”. Both failed.
Meanwhile, the Rwanda policy addresses only a tiny fraction of overall numbers, despite its hefty price tag.
It is already set to cost £370m before any removals take place, according to government spending watchdog the National Audit Office (NAO), and could reach an estimated £661m.
It is designed to deter small boats crossings, but these make up only a fraction of asylum claims, and asylum seekers accounted for only 81,000 migrants last year, compared with 432,000 workers and 379,000 students.
Labour have confirmed they will scrap the scheme “straight away”, while the Conservatives have a poor track record of implementing the scheme, so it remains to be seen what the final bill will be.
Nearly two thirds (64%) of 229,000 workers visas granted in 2023 were for healthcare roles like nurses and care workers.
The Tories say their Albania deal shows that deterrence works, with numbers down 90%.
Labour has pledged to “reform resettlement routes to stop people being exploited by gangs”.
Climate and net zero
A key dividing line is whether to pump more oil and gas from the North Sea.
Mr Sunak wants to “max out” what’s left. Labour says it would stop issuing licences for new projects.
But even though it opposes them, if elected Labour would not actually revoke those handed out by the Tories – which environmentalists have criticised.
The Conservative manifesto says more extraction would “provide energy to homes and businesses across the country”.
But it’s somewhat of a storm in a teacup, because there isn’t much oil or gas left in the North Sea anyway.
The red and blue lines in the chart above show how much – or little – extra the UK might get from new licences – so the decision is more symbolic.
The Tories say they will back renewables, but haven’t really lifted an effective ban on onshore wind farms as promised. Labour wants to double onshore wind power to 35GW by 2030.
Labour’s plans to plug the wells in the North Sea are already putting off some oil majors from turning on the taps at existing projects – and could kill off thousands of jobs, the industry lobby group Offshore Energies UK says.
In reality the parties are more aligned than some of their members would have us believe.
Both back some form of windfall tax until 2029, want to decarbonise most or all electricity by 2030, plan to drive up EVs and want to ramp up solar and offshore wind.
D-Day gaffe
It seems no one in Sunak’s team thought an early departure from D-Day commemorations in Normandy would matter.
But oh how it did, drawing criticism from his own party, as well as Labour, and the general public alike.
The polls have not been kind either.
A snap YouGov survey showed two thirds (65%) of those surveyed found the behaviour to be completely or somewhat unacceptable. This rose to three quarters (75%) among the 65+ age group.
This was a gift to Labour, and something Starmer will likely want to capitalise on during tonight’s debate.
The Battle For Number 10 Leaders Special Event, Wednesday 12 June 7pm-10pm on Sky News – free wherever you get your news.
Freeview channel 233, Sky 501, Virgin 603, BT 313 and streaming on the Sky News website, app and across social channels. It is also available to watch on Sky Showcase.
UK
Resident doctor strikes: I don’t want people to suffer but we have to walk out again, says BMA chief
The British Medical Association (BMA) has defended a new round of resident doctor walkouts starting on Friday, insisting medics’ pay is still “way down” compared with 2008 and that the government has failed to finish “a journey” towards restoring it.
BMA chair Dr Tom Dolphin told Sky News the dispute remains rooted in years of pay erosion that have left resident doctors far behind other public sector workers.
“When we started the dispute, […] the lowest level of the resident doctors were being paid £14 an hour,” he said.
“There were some pay rises over the last couple of years that brought that partly back to the value it should be at, but not all the way.
“The secretary of state (Wes Streeting) himself called it a journey, implying there were further steps to come, but we haven’t seen that.”
Resident doctors outside Newcastle’s Royal Victoria Infirmary during a five-day strike in July. File pic: PA
When asked if the row ultimately “comes down to money”, he replied: “In the sense that the secretary of state doesn’t want to or isn’t able to fund the pay increases to match the value that we had in 2008.”
Dr Dolphin argued that while “the general worker in the economy as a whole” has seen pay catch up since the 2008 financial crash, “doctors are still way down”.
The government points out that its 29% settlement last year was one of the largest in the public sector and was intended to draw a line under two years of walkouts.
But Dr Dolphin said the deal still fell short: “The gap was biggest for doctors and needed the biggest amount of restoration, and that’s what we got.”
He defended the BMA’s use of the Retail Price Index (RPI), a metric rejected by the Office for National Statistics, saying it “better reflects the costs people face”.
Should resident doctors get a pay rise? Have your say in the poll at the bottom of this story.
Dr Tom Dolphin says resident doctors are still underpaid
‘Who do you think is treating the patients?’
With Chancellor Rachel Reeves preparing her budget amid warnings of deep cuts, Dr Dolphin said the BMA is not demanding an immediate cash injection.
“We’re quite happy for that money to be deferred with some kind of multi-year pay deal so that we can end the dispute and avoid having further industrial action about pay for several years to come,” he said.
“Money spent in the NHS is returned to the economy. For every pound you spend, you get several pounds back.”
When pressed on whether the £1.7bn cost of previous strike action could have been better spent on treatment and technology for NHS cancer patients, he hit back: “Who do you think is treating the cancer patients? It’s the doctors.”
Read more on Sky News:
Thousands of NHS redundancies
Sentence and fine over patient death
Health Secretary Wes Streeting has criticised the BMA for striking again. File pic: PA
Strikes will cause disruption, union boss admits
Dr Dolphin rejected suggestions that the dispute could destabilise the government, calling the idea “implausible”.
He admitted prolonged strikes have tested public patience, but said the government had left doctors with no choice.
“A prolonged industrial dispute makes people annoyed with both sides,” he said. “It is vexing to us that we are still in this dispute.”
“I don’t want patients to suffer,” he added. “I accept that the strikes cause disruption… of course that’s upsetting for them. I completely get that. And I’m sorry that it’s happening.”
Sir Keir Starmer has apologised to his health secretary after allies of the prime minister accused him of plotting a coup.
Sky News understands Sir Keir spoke briefly to Wes Streeting on Wednesday evening, though did not share details about the briefing campaign.
Politics Hub: Follow latest updates
Speaking at Prime Minister’s Questions earlier in the day, he denied authorising the attacks on Mr Streeting, who was accused of planning a leadership challenge after the budget later this month.
Mr Streeting said the allegations are “not true”, telling Sky News’ Mornings With Ridge And Frost that whoever was behind the briefings had been “watching too much Celebrity Traitors”.
He insisted he was loyal to the prime minister, who has been under mounting pressure as he and the Labour Party flounder behind Reform in the polls.
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Health secretary insists he’s ‘a faithful’
Downing Street went on the attack on Tuesday night to ward off any potential challenge to Sir Keir after the budget, which could see the government announce manifesto-breaking tax rises.
Sir Keir and Rachel Reeves have refused to rule out raising income tax, national insurance, or VAT.
One senior figure told Sky News political editor Beth Rigby while a post-budget challenge is unlikely, it could come if next May’s elections – including in London and Wales – go badly for Labour.
Labour face a challenge from Reform on the right and parties like the Greens and Plaid Cymru on the left.
Read more: How No 10 plunged itself into crisis
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Starmer backs Streeting at PMQs
Also under pressure is the prime minister’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, after Mr Streeting hit out at a “toxic culture” inside Number 10.
Sir Keir failed to say he had “full confidence” in him at PMQs in response to questions from Kemi Badenoch, but the prime minister’s political spokesperson later insisted to journalists that he does retain his backing.
Sky News understands Mr McSweeney was not discussed when Sir Keir and Mr Streeting spoke last night.
Labour chairwoman Anna Turley said the prime minister will investigate the source of the claims against the health secretary, telling ITV: “This is not what he wants to see and he’s determined to drive it out.”
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