How do Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer’s numbers and pledges measure up?

Published

1 year ago

June 12, 2024

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At the Sky News leaders’ event, both Sir Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak were challenged on their records in opposition and in office, as well as their plans for the future – and both at times struggled to explain away failures and omissions.

Sir Keir went first and found himself challenged over his previous support for Jeremy Corbyn, which the Conservatives see as an opportunity, given the efforts he has made to distance his Labour Party from the now-expelled former leader.

His campaign to replace Mr Corbyn in 2020 was also brought up by interviewer Beth Rigby, who said the Labour leader had ditched “six or seven” of the pledges he described at the time as “the moral case for socialism”.

A quick check of the scorecard shows Rigby was right.

Sir Keir’s promise to increase income tax for the top 5% of earners has been ditched, as has a promise to “support the abolition of tuition fees”, while a commitment to abolish Universal Credit has become “fundamental reform”.

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The promised ‘Green New Deal’ survives but has been dramatically scaled back from £28bn a year to £23bn over five. And a red pen has gone through nationalising “rail, mail, energy and water”.

Only railways will return to public ownership, with Sir Keir arguing that in the case of energy companies, the price of buying out shareholders was too high.

A significant indicator of what Sir Keir might do in the future was what he said – and importantly, did not say – on tax.

The Labour leader repeated his position that he would not “raise taxes for working people”, ruling out increasing income tax, national insurance and VAT. But under questioning, he repeatedly refused to rule out other potential tax rises, including capital gains tax (CGT).

CGT is paid on capital gains, predominantly from the sale of assets, at rates between 10% and 28%. These rates are much lower than income tax, which starts at 20% and rises to 45% – meaning the asset-rich living off gains can pay less tax than a nurse.

The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts CGT will raise £15.2bn this year, rising to £23.5bn in 2028-29, but University of Warwick research has estimated equalising CGT rates with income tax could raise a further £16.9bn annually.

Sir Keir’s determination not to commit suggests a CGT raise remains firmly on the table when, and if, Rachel Reeves writes her first budget.

If it is introduced, she would not be the first new chancellor of the exchequer to raise taxes immediately after an election.

Resolution Foundation research shows, since 1992, every chancellor but one has raised taxes in their first two fiscal events after polling day by an average of £21bn.

Has Rishi Sunak delivered on his pledges?

If the challenge for Sir Keir is what he might do in office, the problem for Mr Sunak is what he has done.

Being prime minister of a party that’s been in power for 14 years leaves nowhere to hide, and Mr Sunak put a target on his back by setting five very specific pledges on which he can be judged back in January last year.

He promised to halve inflation, grow the economy, get debt falling, reduce NHS waiting lists and “stop the boats” by the year’s end.

On only one count, inflation, can he unambiguously be said to have succeeded, and his influence over even that is contested ground.

Inflation did fall from 11% to less than half that, and is currently 2.6%, but global factors, specifically falling energy prices, and the action of central banks were more influential than his decisions not to stoke domestic inflation.

Mr Sunak told Rigby inflation was now “back to normal” but that applies only to the rate of increase in prices, rather than the impact on costs.

Seen through that lens, prices are now around 20% higher than they were before the war in Ukraine, a new “normal” few people relish.

On growth, Mr Sunak was never explicit about which measure he would use. Growth in the final quarter of 2023 was down 0.3% on the previous one, but overall growth for the year was up by 0.1% – the narrowest of margins, but enough to claim success.

The rest of the list makes grim reading for the prime minister. Debt is not falling, though it is forecast to come down in five years, the measure that both Conservatives and Labour use to set their fiscal rules.

The NHS and immigration were even tougher areas for the PM, the statistical scorecard meshing with the lived reality of people experiencing under-pressure public services.

Waiting lists have risen dramatically, up to a peak of 7.4 million before falling back a little in the last few months. Unlike in the first TV debate, Mr Sunak did not try to argue that a small reduction amounted to a win.

On small boats he was more combative but on no measure can he be said to have stopped the crossings. In 2023, there were around 15,000 fewer crossings than in the year before. But this year to date, they’re up.

The broader immigration picture is also problematic. Every Conservative prime minister from Cameron to Truss promised to cut net migration to the tens of thousands and failed.

Mr Sunak set no target but has overseen the highest ever figure, more than 800,000 people last year, a number that appeared to stick with the audience in Grimsby.

Net migration is falling on the latest figures, and fewer visas are being granted after rules were tightened on the dependants of students and care workers, and salary thresholds for skilled workers increased.

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Bank of England pledges to keep pace with US on stablecoin regulations

Published

3 hours ago

November 5, 2025

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Bank of England pledges to keep pace with US on stablecoin regulations

The UK’s top bank says it will roll out stablecoin rules “just as quickly as the US” amid concerns that it’s lagging behind global allies.

Politics

Police chiefs warn of crime surge if Labour’s plans pass – as hunt for mistakenly released prisoners continues

Published

3 hours ago

November 5, 2025

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Police chiefs warn of crime surge if Labour's plans pass - as hunt for mistakenly released prisoners continues

Police are preparing for a surge in crime if the Labour government’s plans to overhaul prison sentences go ahead – with hundreds of thousands more offences expected in a year.

Measures proposed under the Sentencing Bill, intended to ease overcrowding in prisons, include limiting the use of short prison sentences and releasing some convicted criminals earlier.

However, police chiefs are warning such measures could see up to a 6% rise in crime in the immediate aftermath, should the plans become law.

It comes as a manhunt is under way for two prisoners mistakenly released from HMP Wandsworth, including Brahim Kaddour-Cherif, a 24-year-old Algerian man and registered sex offender, and 35-year-old William Smith.

‘It has to be properly funded’

Assistant Chief Constable Jason Devonport, who spent 18 months on secondment as a prison governor at HMP Berwyn, said forces are planning for an increase in all types of offences.

While he said community programmes to support rehabilitation “are being ramped up,” he warned officers “expect, certainly in the short term, there will be an increase of offending in the community”.

“I believe in the Sentencing Bill and I believe in rehabilitation,” he added, “but it has to be properly funded.”

ACC Devonport said the probation service is trying to recruit 1,500 officers a year for the next three years to manage demand, and that the rise in police-recorded crime in one year is expected to be between 4% and 6%.

In the year to June 2025, police in England and Wales recorded 6.6 million offences. A rise of 6% would then equal around 396,000 additional recorded crimes.

Gavin Stephens, chairman of the National Police Chiefs’ Council, added that officers have “all been in policing long enough to know that some of the things that help people stop offending or desist from offending are not going to be resolved by short sentences in particular”.

However, he added: “Our issue is in the short-term period of the implementation, there is a shift of demand on to policing, and we want that shift of demand on to us to be properly recognised and properly modelled… so we can have the right and appropriate resource in there to mitigate the risk to communities.”

Feeble and inept – prison release fiasco is yet another political crisis

Jon Craig

Chief political correspondent

@joncraig

The charitable view of the latest prison release blunder that has plunged the government into another political crisis is that it’s extremely bad luck rather than an act of incompetence by ministers.

But the more we learn about the shocking details of what happened and what looks like a cynical attempt at a cover-up by the hapless David Lammy, the more the blame can be laid at the government’s door.

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Prison system at ‘breaking point,’ warns MP

In a further warning about the state of law and order in the UK, the chair of the Justice Committee has said the prison system is at “breaking point”.

Labour MP Andy Slaughter called the latest releases from HMP Wandsworth “extremely concerning,” adding: “While the day to day running of prison security and public safety are paramount, the current spate of releases in error will be repeated until the underlying failures are addressed.”

He also said evidence taken by the committee “laid bare a crisis-hit prison system, starved of investment over many years which is facing multi-faceted pressures”.

What do we know about the manhunt?

The south London prison admitted on Wednesday that Kaddour-Cherif, who sentenced for trespass with an intent to steal, was accidentally released on 29 October.

His release came just five days after the high-profile release of migrant sex offender Hadush Kebatu from HMP Chelmsford in Essex.

Hours after Kaddour-Cherif’s accidental release was confirmed by the Met, Surrey Police announced it was also searching for Smith after another error by prison staff.

The 35-year-old, who was sentenced to 45 months for multiple fraud offences and goes by the name Billy, had apparently been released on Monday.

It is not yet clear why it was nearly a week between the first release at Wandsworth and the police being informed that an offender was at large.

Both mistakes follow vows by Deputy Prime Minister and Justice Secretary David Lammy that enhanced checks on prisoner releases would be introduced.

He came under fire while standing in for Sir Keir Starmer at PMQs, but sought to blame the Conservatives, saying: “In 25 years in this House, I have not witnessed a more shameful spectacle frankly than what the party opposite left in our justice system.”

In response to concerns of a spike in crime should the Sentencing Bill become law, a Ministry of Justice spokesperson said the government “inherited a prison system in crisis, days away from running out of space”.

“Public safety will always be our top priority, and we are building 14,000 more prison places to keep dangerous offenders locked up,” they added.

“Offenders released face strict licence conditions, and we are increasing the probation budget by an extra £700 million over the next three years and investing in new technology to reduce admin, so staff can focus on work that reduces reoffending.”

And in response to the manhunt for the two released convicts, a spokesperson said: “Releases in error have been increasing for several years and are another symptom of a justice system crisis inherited by this government.”

They added: “We are clear that these mistakes must not continue to happen.”

Politics

Nvidia boss defends AI against claims of bubble by ‘Big Short’ investor

Published

11 hours ago

November 5, 2025

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Nvidia boss defends AI against claims of bubble by 'Big Short' investor

Nvidia boss Jensen Huang has told Sky News the AI sector is a “long, long way” from a Big Short-style collapse.

Speaking outside Downing Street following a roundtable with government and other industry figures, the head of the world’s first $5tn company defended his sector from criticism by investor Michael Burry.

Mr Burry and his firm, Scion Capital, gained notoriety for “shorting” – betting against – the US housing market ahead of the 2008 financial crash.

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He was portrayed by Christian Bale in the 2015 film The Big Short, which also starred Steve Carell, Brad Pitt and Ryan Gosling.

Earlier this week, filings revealed Mr Burry has now bet against Nvidia and on social media, he has suggested there is a bubble in the sector.

Some $500bn was wiped off technology stocks overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, Bloomberg reported.

Speaking to Sky News, Mr Huang said: “I would say that we’re in the beginning of a very long build out of artificial intelligence.”

Defending his company and investment, Mr Huang said AI is the first technology that requires “infrastructure to be built” and that Nvidia has seen “great returns” from AI, and that is why it is expanding.

Mr Huang said better training of AI has led to much “better” and “useful” answers, and that means “the AIs have become profitable”.

“When something is profitable, the suppliers want to make more of it, and that’s the reason the infrastructure build out is accelerating,” he added.

Pushed on whether he was worried about a situation like the Big Short, Mr Huang said: “We are long, long away from that.”

The UK government is betting big on AI in the hopes that it can save money by using it and generate growth by building the infrastructure to back it up.

Asked if she was worried about the market, Technology Secretary Liz Kendall told Sky News: “I have no doubts that AI is going to transfer all parts of our economy and our public services.”

Mr Burry and his firm, Scion Capital’s bets against Nvidia and other companies were revealed by regulatory filings earlier this week.

The investor also posted on social media for the first time in more than two years, warning of a bubble.