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Nigel Farage has declared Reform UK “the opposition to Labour” after his party overtook the Tories for the first time in a new poll.

In a fresh blow to embattled Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, a survey by YouGov for The Times put Reform UK at 19%, compared to the Conservatives at 18%.

Seven-way TV debate taking place – follow live analysis

The results came out moments before an ITV debate between senior figures in the seven main parties.

Mr Farage wasted no time in gloating about the poll, saying in his opening statement: “Just before we came on air we overtook the Conservatives in the national opinion polls.

“We are now the opposition to Labour.”

In a flip of Conservative campaign rhetoric, he also claimed that voting for the Tories over Reform would enable a Labour government.

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When given the chance to ask another of the panellists a question, Mr Farage took aim at Conservative frontbencher Penny Mordaunt, pointing to rising net migration despite Tory promises to control it.

“Why on earth should anybody believe the fifth manifesto that promises cuts to net migration?” he asked.

Ms Mordaunt was laughed at by the audience as she replied: “Because of the record of this prime minister.”

She warned: “Nigel is a Labour enabler. He is enabling no cap, no target, and no plan.”

But Mr Farage responded that he did not believe Ms Mordaunt, adding: “As for being a Labour enabler, we are now ahead of you in the national polls. A vote for you is actually now a vote for Labour.”

The poll was carried out after Mr Sunak unveiled a £17bn package of tax cuts in the Conservative manifesto earlier this week.

It shows Reform up two points, with Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens all down one.

The full results are:

Labour: 37% (-1)
Reform: 19% (+2)
Conservatives: 18% (nc)
Lib Dems: 14% (-1)
Green Party: 7% (-1)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (nc)
Other: 2% (+1)

Farage wastes no time in gloating at poll breakthrough


Jon Craig - Chief political correspondent

Jon Craig

Chief political correspondent

@joncraig

The opening statements in the ITV leaders’ debate may have been extremely brief, but they spoke volumes.

Predictably, Nigel Farage wasted no time in gloating about the shock opinion poll minutes before the start which put Reform UK ahead of the Conservatives.

“We are now the opposition to Labour,” he declared, in a boast that he has been wanting to trumpet at full volume for weeks as support for his party has risen gradually during the campaign.

And Penny Mordaunt served notice that she will go on the attack against Labour on tax in the debate, claiming she’ll talk about the Tories cutting taxes and Labour raising them.

The poll was conducted on a sample size of 2,211 adults in Britain between June 12 and 13.

Will Jennings, Sky News polling analyst, said the YouGov survey “represents a moment of huge danger to the Conservatives”.

“Because of the geography of their support, Reform are not projected to win many seats, but they could still cost the Conservatives wins in narrowly contested seats across the country,” he said.

“In many places this will make the difference between a constituency returning a Conservative or Labour MP.”

A Reform UK spokesperson said: “One poll does not make an election. However it is clear that the Tories are broken, just as they have broken the country.

“Right now, Labour will win, but Reform are the only real opposition.

“Those who are thinking of voting Conservative out of misplaced loyalty should think again. They can and should vote for a party with the energy and imagination to challenge a Labour hegemony.”

After announcing his shock return to frontline politics last week, Mr Farage made clear his plans to replace the Tories as the official opposition if Labour win the landslide the current polls are predicting.

He has ruled out striking a pact with the Conservatives after senior Tory Suella Braverman said her party should embrace the former UKIP leader on the grounds there was “not much difference really between him and many of the policies that we stand for”.

The poll is more bad news for Mr Sunak, who has struggled to make a comeback from his D-Day gaffe last week.

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Despite repeatedly apologising for skipping an international ceremony attended by the likes of US President Joe Biden to mark the allied landings, the prime minister has continued to face a backlash from rivals, veterans and some from within his own party.

Such was the extent of the furore that he was forced to quash rumours he could resign and acknowledge “people are frustrated with me” during the launch of his manifesto.

The policy document contained promises to make another 2p cut to national insurance (NI), a new tax break for pensioners and the abolishment of NI altogether for the self-employed.

But it has failed to shift the dial for Mr Sunak, who was already 20 points behind Labour when he made the decision to call the election for 4 July.

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Budget 2025: Reeves urged to ‘make the case’ for income tax freeze – as PM hits out at defenders of ‘failed’ policy

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Budget 2025: Reeves urged to 'make the case' for income tax freeze - as PM hits out at defenders of 'failed' policy

Rachel Reeves needs to “make the case” to voters that extending the freeze on personal income thresholds was the “fairest” way to increase taxes, Baroness Harriet Harman has said.

Speaking to Sky News political editor Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast, the Labour peer said the chancellor needed to explain that her decision would “protect people’s cost of living if they’re on low incomes”.

In her budget on Wednesday, Ms Reeves extended the freeze on income tax thresholds – introduced by the Conservatives in 2021 and due to expire in 2028 – by three years.

The move – described by critics as a “stealth tax” – is estimated to raise £8bn for the exchequer in 2029-2030 by dragging some 1.7 million people into a higher tax band as their pay goes up.

Rachel Reeves, pictured the day after delivering the budget. Pic: PA
Image:
Rachel Reeves, pictured the day after delivering the budget. Pic: PA

The chancellor previously said she would not freeze thresholds as it would “hurt working people” – prompting accusations she has broken the trust of voters.

During the general election campaign, Labour promised not to increase VAT, national insurance or income tax rates.

Sir Keir Starmer has insisted there’s been no manifesto breach, but acknowledged people were being asked to “contribute” to protect public services.

He has also launched a staunch defence of the government’s decision to scrap the two-child benefit cap, with its estimated cost of around £3bn by the end of this parliament.

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Prime minister defends budget

‘A moral failure’

The prime minister condemned the Conservative policy as a “failed social experiment” and said those who defend it stand for “a moral failure and an economic disaster”.

“The record highs of child poverty in this country aren’t just numbers on a spreadsheet – they mean millions of children are going to bed hungry, falling behind at school, and growing up believing that a better future is out of reach despite their parents doing everything right,” he said.

The two-child limit restricts child tax credit and universal credit to the first two children in most households.

The government believes lifting the limit will pull 450,000 children out of poverty, which it argues will ultimately help reduce costs by preventing knock-on issues like dependency on welfare – and help people find jobs.

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Budget winners and losers

Speaking to Rigby, Baroness Harman said Ms Reeves now needed to convince “the woman on the doorstep” of why she’s raised taxes in the way that she has.

“I think Rachel really answered it very, very clearly when she said, ‘well, actually, we haven’t broken the manifesto because the manifesto was about rates’.

“And you remember there was a big kerfuffle before the budget about whether they would increase the rate of income tax or the rate of national insurance, and they backed off that because that would have been a breach of the manifesto.

“But she has had to increase the tax take, and she’s done it by increasing by freezing the thresholds, which she says she didn’t want to do. But she’s tried to do it with the fairest possible way, with counterbalancing support for people on low incomes.”

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She added: “And that is the argument that’s now got to be had with the public. The Labour members of parliament are happy about it. The markets essentially are happy about it. But she needs to make the case, and everybody in the government is going to need to make the case about it.

“This was a difficult thing to do, but it’s been done in the fairest possible way, and it’s for the good, because it will protect people’s cost of living if they’re on low incomes.”

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Is the government gaslighting us over tax rises?

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Is the government gaslighting us over tax rises?

👉 Click here to listen to Electoral Dysfunction on your podcast app 👈

With all the speculation, it was always going to be a big one, but Rachel Reeves’s second budget turned into a political earthquake before she even stood up at the despatch box.

In this bumper budget special, Beth, Ruth, and Harriet unpick what happened on one of the most dramatic days in the fiscal calendar.

With the unprecedented leak of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s assessment giving the opposition a sneak preview, Kemi Badenoch delivered a fiery attack. Listeners weigh in on their thoughts of her comebacks.

Send us your messages and Christmas-themed questions on WhatsApp at 07934 200 444 or email electoraldysfunction@sky.uk.

And if you didn’t know, you can also watch Beth, Harriet, and Ruth on YouTube.

St. James’s Place sponsors Electoral Dysfunction on Sky News, learn more here.

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South Africa’s central bank says no ‘strong immediate need’ for CBDC

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South Africa’s central bank says no ‘strong immediate need’ for CBDC

The South African Reserve Bank says it doesn’t see a need for a central bank digital currency in the near term, instead saying the country should modernize its payments system.

The South African central bank said in a paper released on Thursday that there was no “strong immediate need” for a retail CBDC, though deploying one was technically feasible.

It said that existing initiatives, such as a program to modernize the payments system and expand non-bank participation in the national payment system, should remain the priority for now.

“While the SARB does not currently advocate for the implementation of a retail CBDC, it will continue to monitor developments and will remain prepared to act should the need arise.”

The central bank will shift its focus toward exploring wholesale CBDC applications and cross-border payment efficiency, while continuing to monitor retail CBDC developments, it stated. 

Central bank issues crypto and stablecoin warning

The research examined whether a retail CBDC would address gaps in South Africa’s payment system, revealing that challenges persist as roughly 16% of adults remain unbanked. 

For a CBDC to succeed, it would need to match or exceed the benefits of cash, including offline functionality, universal acceptance, low costs, ease of use, and privacy features, it stated. 

Related: South Africa’s central bank flags crypto, stablecoins as financial risk

South Africa has turned against crypto recently, with a warning from its central bank about crypto and stablecoins. 

In a report released earlier this week, the SARB flagged “crypto assets and stablecoins” as a new risk for technology-enabled financial innovation. 

The bank also cautioned that crypto can be used to circumvent Exchange Control Regulations, which control the inflows and outflows of funds to South Africa.

CBDC race continues across the globe

Only three countries have officially launched a CBDC: Nigeria, Jamaica and The Bahamas, according to the Atlantic Council CBDC Tracker. 

There are 49 countries that have CBDCs in a pilot testing phase, 20 countries actively developing one, and 36 countries are researching a CBDC. Meanwhile, the United States shelved its CBDC plans under the Trump administration.

CBDC race continues globally. Source: Atlantic Council

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