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As ever with Vladimir Putin, timing is everything.

It’s no coincidence his latest speech was made on the eve of the Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland. Russia won’t be there as it hasn’t been invited.

So this was about putting Moscow’s side across first and undermining the summit’s legitimacy before it has even begun.

Putin has said Russia would be ready for peace talks “tomorrow” if Ukrainian troops withdraw from the Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk regions – and if Ukraine gives up its plan to join NATO.

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‘I don’t care if the West trusts us’

If Ukraine agrees, Putin said Russia would cease fire and begin negotiations.

But is his peace proposal credible? Not according to Ukraine or the West. Kyiv, NATO and the Pentagon have already all dismissed it with one of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s advisors calling the offer a “complete sham”.

But the Kremlin sees things very differently, or at least pretends to.

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“We didn’t start the war,” Russia’s president said. “It was the Kyiv regime.”

Russia-Ukraine latest: Putin’s ceasefire offer labelled ‘total sham’

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According to Putin, Russia is the victim. Hence why he says Ukraine must withdraw its troops from the regions Russia occupies, rather than the other way around.

In reality, he knows these conditions are not something Kyiv will ever agree to. Ceding territory is a red line for President Zelenskyy.

Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelenskyy shake hands on the day of signing a new security agreement between the United States and Ukraine, in Fasano, Italy, June 13, 2024. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Zelenskyy has been at G7 where a $50bn loan for Ukraine has been agreed. Pic: Reuters

But that doesn’t matter to Putin. This was more about seizing the initiative ahead of the Switzerland summit, where Zelenskyy will be centre stage.

As for relations with the West – Putin has said they’re “close to the point of no return”. What does that mean exactly? There was no mention of nuclear weapons this time, but it was a bleak assessment nonetheless and one that many in the West might agree with.

It’s fair to say relations between Russia and the West have taken a sharp turn for the worse in recent days.

We’ve had new threats, new sanctions and new military manoeuvres. Then yesterday, to top it off, the G7’s $50bn loan deal for Ukraine using frozen Russian assets. A deal Putin called “theft” that will prompt a retaliation.

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Russia threatens war over NATO arms

We don’t know what the response will be yet but it’s likely to involve the seizure of private US assets in Russia – something that’s already been discussed in Moscow. Last month, Putin signed a decree outlining how it would work.

It all gives the sense we’re suddenly moving more quickly along the path to possible escalation. And it makes one wonder – where will this end?

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Israel unleashes huge strikes on Beirut – with Hezbollah leader the target

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Israel unleashes huge strikes on Beirut - with Hezbollah leader the target

Israel has unleashed a series of huge strikes on Beirut, with its military saying it struck the central headquarters of the militant group Hezbollah.

The attack shook windows across the Lebanese capital and sent thick clouds of smoke billowing into the air.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was the intended target of the strike and a senior Israeli official said it was too early to say whether the attack was successful.

“I think it’s too early to say, but, you know, it’s a question of time. Sometimes they hide the fact when we succeed,”
the official said when asked if the Israeli strike on Friday had killed Nasrallah.

Asked how long it might take to determine the fate of Nasrallah, the senior Israeli official said: “Certainly if he’s
alive, you’ll know it very immediately. If he’s dead, it may take some time.”

A source close to Hezbollah told Reuters Nasrallah is still alive, and Iran’s Tasnim news agency also reported he was safe.

Israel-Hezbollah latest: Explosions in Beirut as Israel ‘targets head of Hezbollah’ in huge airstrike

datawrapper map of Beirut showing the suburb of Dahieh

Lebanon’s health ministry said at least two were killed and 76 wounded in the strikes. It said the figures were preliminary.

The Israeli military claimed it had carried out a “precise strike” on Hezbollah’s headquarters which it said were “embedded under residential buildings in the heart of the Dahieh in Beirut”.

It was the strongest strike carried out by Israel in Beirut during its nearly year-long conflict with Hezbollah, which began when the Iran-backed group began firing rockets into Israel almost immediately after Hamas attacked from Gaza on 7 October.

Israel has struck the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut, known as Dahieh, four times over the last week – killing at least three senior Hezbollah commanders.

Smoke rises after multiple Israeli strikes in Beirut. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Smoke rises after multiple Israeli strikes in Beirut. Pic: Reuters

Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari said the central command centre was embedded deep within civilian areas.

Four buildings in Dahieh were reduced to rubble, Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV reported.

Confusion around Nasrallah’s condition – and it could force Iran into a decision

There is still confusion around the fate of Hezbollah General Secretary Hassan Nasrallah.

After suspiciously rapid statements that he was “safe” there has not been an update for some hours. If he is alive, I would expect him to appear on TV as soon as possible to reassure his supporters and in a message of defiance.

Israeli sources say he was the target of the attacks but are yet to indicate whether they were successful. The blast site is so large, it will take time for rescue workers to find the dead. The civilian death toll is likely to rise considerably.

This is a pivotal moment. If Nasrallah has been killed it will be the biggest success for Israel so far. They tried to find and kill him in 2006, but failed. Leaders can be easily replaced and often with someone more dangerous than before, as witnessed by the killing of the former Hezbollah leader Abbas Al-Musawi in 1992. He was succeeded by Nasrallah.

Even if Nasrallah is dead, Hezbollah isn’t.

The immediate assumption is that the group would respond with barrages of missiles into Israel, probably targeting Tel Aviv.

So far tonight, there have been around 30 missiles fired. We witnessed interceptions in Haifa and one rocket hit a house in Safed. Much more could come.

But Hezbollah will again be in disarray. Their command structure has been severely degraded. It will probably take time to co-ordinate a response and it will probably be with Iranian guidance.

Iran must also make a choice now. Tehran has not seen eye to eye with Nasrallah in recent weeks, but the loss of such an important ally will be a huge blow to the Supreme Leader, if it turns out that he has been killed.

Having resisted the opportunity to get involved, Iran might decide the time has come to take the gloves off and deploy the thousands of missiles they have provided Hezbollah with.

Alternatively, after such a difficult 10 days, they might decide this round of fighting needs to end and pull back with Hezbollah still in some shape to rebuild and fight another day.

Iran’s embassy in Beirut described the strikes as a “dangerous, game-changing escalation”, calling them a “crime” that merits “appropriate punishment”.

The site of an Israeli strike in Beirut's southern suburbs. Pic: Reuters
The site of an Israeli strike in Beirut's southern suburbs. Pic: Reuters
Image:
The site of an Israeli strike in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Pics: Reuters

The strikes came shortly after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to keep up Israel’s attacks on Iranian-backed fighters in Lebanon during a speech to the United Nations General Assembly.

“As long as Hezbollah chooses the path of war, Israel has no choice, and Israel has every right to remove this threat and return our citizens to their homes safely,” he said.

“Israel has been tolerating this intolerable situation for nearly a year. Well, I’ve come here today to say enough is enough.”

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‘Everywhere in Lebanon is dangerous’

The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has dramatically escalated this week, with Israeli airstrikes killing more than 700 people in Lebanon, raising fears of an all-out war between the two sides.

Tens of thousands have been forced to flee their homes on both sides of the border.

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Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s UN speech had passion and props – but no clear plan to end war

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Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu's UN speech had passion and props - but no clear plan to end war

Benjamin Netanyahu loves the platform of the United Nations but the UN doesn’t love him.

As he entered, hundreds of diplomats left. He delivered his speech to a chamber more than half empty.

Mr Netanyahu claimed he was not initially going to attend, but was compelled to by the “lies and slanders” he heard from other leaders.

He used the moment to remind the world of 7 October and the ongoing fate of hostages being held inside Gaza.

He justified Israel’s war, claiming without evidence that it is the most moral campaign in history. Israel critics, of which there are many, accuse the country of genocide.

Israel-Hezbollah latest: Follow live updates here

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Netanyahu slams Israel’s critics in UN speech

He pointed the finger at the “goons” in Iran as he has done year after year and described the Iranian axis across Iraq, Syria and Lebanon as a curse.

More on Benjamin Netanyahu

He lambasted the International Criminal Court for seeking arrest warrants against him and defence minister Yoav Gallant.

He invoked biblical references to advocate modern-day peace but insisted his country must keep fighting multiple wars; there was not even a passing glance to the US-French proposal for a truce in Lebanon.

Mr Netanyahu again dedicated time to speak about the prospect of normalisation with Saudi Arabia, something he is desperate for, but the Kingdom’s Crown Prince isn’t.

Riyadh won’t make peace with Israel without a path to an independent Palestinian state, and that is something Mr Netanyahu isn’t willing to give.

Mr Netanyahu does these moments well. He is a master of the media and revels in the moment.

In the end though, we heard nothing new.

It was passionate and it was angry. It had maps as props and a crowd flown in to cheer along.

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But there was no explanation for how the war in Gaza will end, no plan for the ‘day after’ and no idea for “deradicalisation”.

He said Israel must “defeat” Hezbollah but gave no hint of a timeline and no clue what might come next.

It was a speech that will go down well with many here in Israel, their leader defending their country on the world stage.

But Israelis are weary after 12 months of war and many will come away wondering how many more months of conflict lie ahead.

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After a week of strikes in Beirut suburb, explosions are no longer a surprise

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After a week of strikes in Beirut suburb, explosions are no longer a surprise

After a week of airstrikes in the neighbourhood of Dahieh, the shock of an explosion is rarely followed by surprise. 

When we arrived in this densely populated part of southern Beirut, the street was filled with glass and rubble and weary-looking faces. This is the fourth time in a week that this area has been hit.

Behind a cordon, we could see a damaged apartment block just down the street. Below, a popular juice shop called “Tasty Bees” had survived unscathed.

Israel-Hezbollah latest: Follow live updates here

A detachment of Lebanese troops stood guard at the scene, but we knew they were not in charge in this part of the city.

Dahieh is run by the political and military group Hezbollah and we were invited by their security personnel to take a closer look at the site.

26 September 2024, Lebanon, Beirut: A Lebanese civil defense worker clears rubble and debris of an apartment in a building was targeted by an Israeli air strike in Beirut's southern suburb. The attack targeted a top pro-Iranian Hezbollah commander. Photo by: Marwan Naamani/picture-alliance/dpa/AP Images
Image:
Israel said its airstrike targeted a Hezbollah commander. Pic: AP

The fourth floor was badly damaged by a series of precision-guided missiles.

More on Beirut

The outer walls of various apartments had been removed, revealing mattresses, curtains and colourful chandeliers.

The Israeli military claims to have killed a Hezbollah commander called Mohammed Surur in the strike.

The country’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu later said that he had authorised it and described Surur as the leader of the Iran-backed group’s unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) or drone division.

Surur’s death has not been confirmed by Hezbollah – but it certainly has not intimidated some of the group’s supporters.

“I’d die for Hezbollah,” shouted one man and he brushed the rubble off the top of his battered-looking car.

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Our tour came as the international community launched an urgent attempt for a temporary truce in a conflict that has killed more than 1,500 this year. But prospects for a ceasefire were quickly blown away by the blast.

At least two have died, with 15 injured in this attack.

The rubble of destroyed buildings lies at the site of Israeli strikes in Saksakiyeh, southern Lebanon September 26, 2024. REUTERS/Ali Hankir
Image:
Israeli airstrikes have hit several areas of southern Lebanon including Saksakiyeh. Pic: Reuters

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The mayor of the local suburb Atef Mansour gave voice to the feeling shared by many here.

“What happened is an ongoing crime committed by the Israeli enemy, and we witness this scene every day, day after day in a densely populated neighbourhood.”

Yet Hezbollah has continued its military operations, sending 45 rockets into northern Israel. Such attacks invite an inevitable response.

As far as our minders in Dahieh were concerned, the purpose of our visit was clear – to communicate the impact on civilians of such strikes.

Yet we all know the next assault will come soon.

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