Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has said he should be allowed into a political leaders’ event next week – and challenged Sir Keir Starmer to a head-to-head debate.
This is within the margin of error, and more than a dozen other polls have Reform behind the Tories in their most recent datasets – with support ranging from 9% to 17%.
YouGov, the pollster Mr Farage was quoting, puts his party on 19% compared to the Conservative’s 18%.
The Sky News poll tracker, which collates all the results to provide an average, has Reform in third place.
In order, it has Labour on 42%, Conservatives on 21.8%, Reform on 14.3%, the Liberal Democrats on 10.4%, the Greens on 5.9% and the SNP on 3.1%.
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Speaking on Friday lunchtime, Mr Farage made a “demand of right now” that “the BBC put us into that debate”.
He appeared to be speaking about a special episode of Question Time, set to take place on Thursday 20 June.
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There is a one-on-one leadership debate the following week between Sir Keir and Rishi Sunak.
Mr Farage has already appeared in two seven-person leadership events – however, while smaller parties sent their respective leaders, Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems did not.
Mr Farage said: “I would also very much like to do a debate head-to-head with Keir Starmer and the reason is very simple – we think this should be the immigration election.”
In the same event, Mr Farage declared himself the “leader of the opposition” against Sir Keir, having said he believes Labour will form the next government and the Tories are “done”.
The former UKIP leader said he believed his party could win six million votes at the election – which works out to close to 19% of the valid votes cast in 2019.
In 2019, the Conservatives won just under 14 million votes, Labour won around 10.3 million, the SNP won 1.2 million and the Liberal Democrats won 3.7 million.
However, it’s hard to say how many seats the six million could work out to due to the first past the post system – as shown by the fact the SNP won 48 seats in 2019 and the Liberal Democrats won 11.
Mr Farage is claiming he wants his party to build towards the next general election – which must take place by summer 2029.
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He said: “Remember, this is not a short-term commando raid, this is a five-year commitment. This election is our first step towards building for 2029.
“So, however many seats we win, you have my absolute assurance that our campaigning of the 29 election, our building of a big movement in this country, will begin the very next day on 5 July.
“If we did finish up with a huge number of votes and a paltry number of seats, do you know what it would do? It would tell us yet again that Britain is broken and Britain needs reform, and that reform includes the electoral system, that reform includes the abomination that is the House of Lords, and that reform includes the right, as people in Switzerland have, to call referendums on key issues if they think their government and parliament are out of touch with them.”
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Asked about his party’s financial situation, Mr Farage said Reform had raised “£2-3m in 25 quids” – but it needs to raise more and does “not have the ammunition that we need”.
The BBC and the Labour Party have been approached for comment.
In common with many parents across the country, here’s a conversation that I have with my young daughter on a semi-regular basis (bear with me, this will take on some political relevance eventually).
Me: “So it’s 15 minutes until your bedtime, you can either have a little bit of TV or do a jigsaw, not both.”
Daughter: “Ummmm, I want to watch TV.”
Me: “That’s fine, but it’s bed after that, you can’t do a jigsaw as well.”
Fast-forward 15 minutes.
Me: “Right, TV off now please, bedtime.”
(Pause)
Daughter: “I want to do a jigsaw.”
Now replace me with the government, the TV and jigsaw options with axing welfare cuts and scrapping the two-child cap, and my daughter with rebellious backbenchers.
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6:36
Rachel Reeves’s fiscal dilemma
That is the tension currently present between Downing Street and Labour MPs. And my initial ultimatum is the messaging being pumped out from the government this weekend.
In essence: you’ve had your welfare U-turn, so there’s no money left for the two-child cap to go as well.
As an aside – and before my inbox fills with angry emails lambasting me for using such a crude metaphor for policies that fundamentally alter the lives of some of the most vulnerable in society – yes, I hear you, and that’s part of my point.
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9:11
Welfare U-turn ‘has come at cost’
For many in Labour, this approach feels like the lives of their constituents are being used in a childish game of horse-trading.
So what can be done?
Well, the government could change the rules.
Altering the fiscal rules is – and will likely remain – an extremely unlikely solution. But as it happens, one of Labour’s proverbial grandparents has just popped round with a different suggestion.
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5:31
Welfare: ‘Didn’t get process right’ – PM
A wealth tax, Lord Neil Kinnock says, is the necessary outcome of the economic restrictions the party has placed on itself.
Ever the Labour storyteller, Lord Kinnock believes this would allow the government to craft a more compelling narrative about whose side this administration is on.
That could be valuable, given one of the big gripes from many backbench critics is that they still don’t really understand what this prime minister stands for – and by extension, what all these “difficult decisions” are in aid of.
The downside is whether it will actually raise much money.
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16:02
Is Corbyn an existential risk to Labour?
The super-rich may have lots of assets to take a slice from, but they also have expensive lawyers ready to find novel ways to keep their client’s cash away from the prying eyes of the state.
Or, of course, they could just leave – as many are doing already.
In the short term, the future is a bit easier to predict.
If Downing Street is indeed now saying there is no money to scrap the two-child cap (after heavy briefing in the opposite direction just weeks ago), an almighty tantrum from the backbenches is inevitable.
And as every parent knows, the more you give in, the harder it becomes to hold the line.
The UK has re-established diplomatic ties with Syria, David Lammy has said, as he made the first visit to the country by a British minister for 14 years.
The foreign secretary visited Damascus and met with interim president Ahmed al Sharaa, also the leader of the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and foreign minister Asaad al Shaibani.
In a statement, Mr Lammy said a “stable Syria is in the UK’s interests” and added: “I’ve seen first-hand the remarkable progress Syrians have made in rebuilding their lives and their country.
“After over a decade of conflict, there is renewed hope for the Syrian people.
“The UK is re-establishing diplomatic relations because it is in our interests to support the new government to deliver their commitment to build a stable, more secure and prosperous future for all Syrians.”
Image: Foreign Secretary David Lammy with Syria’s interim president Ahmed al Sharaa in Damascus. Pic: X / @DavidLammy
The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office has also announced a £94.5m support package for urgent humanitarian aid and to support the country’s long-term recovery, after a number of British sanctions against the country were lifted in April.
While HTS is still classified as a proscribed terror group, Sir Keir Starmer said last year that it could be removed from the list.
The Syrian president’s office also said on Saturday that the president and Mr Lammy discussed co-operation, as well as the latest developments in the Middle East.
Since Assad fled Syria in December, a transitional government headed by Mr al Sharaa was announced in March and a number of western countries have restored ties.
In May, US President Donald Trump said the United States would lift long-standing sanctions on Syria and normalise relations during a speech at the US-Saudi investment conference.
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1:12
From May: Trump says US will end sanctions for Syria
He said he wanted to give the country “a chance at peace” and added: “There is a new government that will hopefully succeed.
“I say good luck, Syria. Show us something special.”
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