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UK inflation has eased to 2% – increasing the prospect of an interest rate cut within months.

The consumer prices index (CPI) rate for the year to May was confirmed by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday.

The figure indicates that prices are still rising, but at the slowest pace since July 2021.

The ONS said the drop was largely down to falling food prices, while the cost of motor fuel rose slightly.

Officials added that core inflation, which strips out volatile elements such as food and energy, fell to 3.5% in May, in line with expectations.

However, some commentators expressed concern that services inflation – which covers sectors such as the hospitality industry – had only fallen from 5.9% in April to 5.7% in May.

Financial markets had previously priced in expectations of an interest rate cut in August – but on Wednesday that shifted towards a reduction being made in September instead.

The latest figures come following a sustained period of high inflation in the UK, which peaked at 11.1% in October 2022 – the highest level since 1981.

The Bank of England is due to announce its latest decision on interest rates on Thursday.

The Bank has been steadily increasing rates since December 2021 as part of efforts to bring down inflation – which soared in the wake of the COVID pandemic and amid the war in Ukraine to its target of 2%.

Most analysts expect rates to be held at 5.25% for the seventh time in a row this week, amid concerns that inflation could tick up again during the second half of the year.

The prospects of a rate cut this week were also dealt a blow last month when wage growth – a driver of inflation – came in higher than expected.

Inflation eased to 2.3% in April, although the fall was not as big as economists and the Bank of England had forecast.

Today’s inflation figures and Thursday’s interest rate decision are likely to be the final major economic announcements to be made before the general election next month.

‘Stage set’ for rate cut?

The Confederation of British Industry’s principal economist Martin Sartorius said the fall in inflation would be “welcome news to households” although he said many were still feeling the pinch.

He added: “Today’s data sets the stage for the [Bank’s] Monetary Policy Committee to cut interest rates in August, in line with our latest forecast’s expectations.

“However, rate-setters will still need to weigh the fall in headline inflation against signs that domestic price pressures, such as elevated pay growth, are proving slower to come down.

“This means that they are likely to move cautiously beyond August to avoid putting further upward pressure on inflation, especially as the growth outlook improves at home and geopolitical tensions remain heightened.”

Services inflation concern

Ruth Gregory, from research firm Capital Economics, said Wednesday’s figures “probably won’t be enough” to persuade the Bank to cut rates on Thursday.

She added: “And with services inflation nudging down only slightly, this leaves our forecast that the Bank will cut rates for the first time in August looking a little shakier.”

Rob Wood, from Pantheon Macroeconomics, agreed there was a risk that the Bank’s first rate cut of the year could now be delayed until September.

He said: “The bad news is services inflation has proved remarkably persistent, slowing only to 5.7% in May from 6.1% in February, a period when large base effects should have weighed heavily on the year-over-year inflation rate.

“We’ll need to take a careful look at all the detailed data”.

Meanwhile, Unite‘s general secretary Sharon Graham called on the Bank to cut rates sooner.

She said: “Falling inflation doesn’t mean falling prices. The worst cost of living crisis in generations is still dragging on.

“We need action from the Bank of England on Thursday to begin lowering interest rates and relieve the pressure on hard-pressed homeowners.”

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Inflation drop a ‘significant moment’

Parties clash over figures

Rishi Sunak described the fall in inflation as “great news” in a video posted on social media.

He said: “When I became prime minister, inflation was at 11%. But we took bold action. We stuck to a clear plan and that’s why the economy has now turned a corner.

“So, let’s not put all that progress at risk with Labour.”

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‘Cost of living crisis isn’t over’

Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “After 14 years of economic chaos under the Conservatives, working people are worse off.

“Prices have risen in the shops, mortgage bills are higher and taxes are at a 70-year high.”

Liberal Democrat Treasury spokeswoman Sarah Olney said: “The hard truth is that millions of people won’t be feeling any better off today.”

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Asda-owner TDR snaps up former SPAC merger target CorpAcq

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Asda-owner TDR snaps up former SPAC merger target CorpAcq

The private equity owner of Asda has struck a deal to buy a controlling stake in a group which specialises in backing British SMEs.

Sky News has learnt that TDR Capital has agreed to acquire a majority interest in CorpAcq, less than six months after the so-called ‘corporate compounder’ aborted a deal to list in the US.

City sources said this weekend that CorpAcq, which makes roughly £125m in annual profit, was being valued at well over £1bn on an enterprise value basis in the deal with TDR.

Founded in 2006, CorpAcq – which sponsors Sale FC Rugby’s stadium, near its Altrincham base – has amassed a portfolio of more than 40 companies.

It specialises in buy-and-build strategies, with a focus on companies operating in the industrial products and services sectors.

The company’s acquisition blueprint enables SME founders to retain management control while gaining a long-term investment partner offering operational support to those businesses.

CorpAcq’s founder is Simon Orange, brother of the former Take That member Jason and joint-owner of the Sale Sharks.

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In 2023, a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) founded by Michael Klein, one of Wall Street’s leading financiers, announced a $1.5bn plan to take CorpAcq public.

The merger was called off in August last year, with Mr Klein’s vehicle Churchill Capital VII citing difficult IPO market conditions.

Banking sources said that TDR and CorpAcq had entered discussions well after the SPAC deal was abandoned.

The deal, which could be announced within weeks, is the latest to be struck by TDR, which also counts the pubs giant Stonegate and David Lloyd Leisure among its portfolio of investments.

A spokesman for TDR declined to comment.

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Poundland owner drafts in advisers amid discounter crisis

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Poundland owner drafts in advisers amid discounter crisis

The owner of Poundland, one of Britain’s biggest discount retailers, has drafted in City advisers to explore radical options for arresting the growing crisis at the chain.

Sky News has learnt that Pepco Group, which has owned Poundland since 2016, has hired consultants from AlixPartners to address a sales slump which has raised questions over its future ownership.

City sources said this weekend that the crisis would prompt Pepco to explore more fundamental for Poundland, including a formal restructuring process that could prompt significant store closures, or even an attempt to sell the business.

AlixPartners is understood to have been formally engaged last week, with options including a company voluntary arrangement or restructuring plan said to have been floated by a range of advisers on a highly preliminary basis.

Sources close to the group said no decisions had been taken, and that the immediate focus was on improving Poundland’s cash performance and reviving the chain’s customer proposition.

A sale process was not under way, they added.

Poundland trades from 825 stores across the UK, competing with the likes of Home Bargains, B&M and Poundstretcher, as well as Britain’s major supermarket chains.

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Last year, the British discounter recorded roughly €2bn of sales.

It employs roughly 18,000 people.

Earlier this week, Pepco Group, the Warsaw-listed retail giant which also trades as Pepco and Dealz in Europe, said Poundland had seen a like-for-like sales slump of 7.3% during the Christmas trading period.

In its trading statement, Pepco said that Poundland had suffered “a more difficult sales environment and consumer backdrop in the UK, alongside margin pressure and an increasingly higher operating cost environment”.

“We expect that the toughest comparative quarter for Poundland is now behind us – the same quarter last year represented a period prior to the changes made within our clothing and GM [general merchandise] ranges – and therefore, we expect the negative sales performance for Poundland to moderate as we move through the year.”

It added that Poundland would not increase the size of its store portfolio on a net basis during the course of this year.

“We are continuing a comprehensive assessment of Poundland to recover trading and get the business back to its core strengths, including undertaking a thorough assessment of all costs across the business, as well as evaluating its overall competitive positioning,” it added.

The appointment of AlixPartners came several weeks after Stephan Borchert, the Pepco Group chief executive, said he would consider “every strategic option” for reviving Poundland’s performance.

He is expected to set out formal plans for the future of Poundland, along with the rest of the group, at a capital markets day in Poland on 6 March.

Among the measures the company has already taken to halt the chain’s declining performance have been to increase the range of FMCG and general merchandise products sold at its traditional £1 price-point.

Poundland’s crisis contrasts with the health of the rest of the group, with Pepco and Dealz both showing strong sales growth.

A spokesman for Pepco Group, which has a market capitalisation equivalent to about £1.7bn, declined to comment further on the appointment of advisers

AlixPartners also declined to comment.

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FTSE 100 closes at record high

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FTSE 100 closes at record high

The UK’s benchmark stock index has reached another record high.

The FTSE 100 index of most valuable companies on the London Stock Exchange closed at 8,505.69, breaking the record set last May.

It had already broken its intraday high at 8532.58 on Friday afternoon, meaning it reached a high not seen before during trading hours.

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The weakened pound has boosted many of the 100 companies forming the top-flight index.

Why is this happening?

Most are not based in the UK, so a less valuable pound means their sterling-priced shares are cheaper to buy for people using other currencies, typically US dollars.

This makes the shares better value, prompting more to be bought. This greater demand has brought up the prices and the FTSE 100.

The pound has been hovering below $1.22 for much of Friday. It’s steadily fallen from being worth $1.34 in late September.

Also spurring the new record are market expectations for more interest rate cuts in 2025, something which would make borrowing cheaper and likely kickstart spending.

What is the FTSE 100?

The index is made up of many mining and international oil and gas companies, as well as household name UK banks and supermarkets.

Familiar to a UK audience are lenders such as Barclays, Natwest, HSBC and Lloyds and supermarket chains Tesco, Marks & Spencer and Sainsbury’s.

Other well-known names include Rolls-Royce, Unilever, easyJet, BT Group and Next.

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FTSE stands for Financial Times Stock Exchange.

If a company’s share price drops significantly it can slip outside of the FTSE 100 and into the larger and more UK-based FTSE 250 index.

The inverse works for the FTSE 250 companies, the 101st to 250th most valuable firms on the London Stock Exchange. If their share price rises significantly they could move into the FTSE 100.

A good close for markets

It’s a good end of the week for markets, entirely reversing the rise in borrowing costs that plagued Chancellor Rachel Reeves for the past ten days.

Fears of long-lasting high borrowing costs drove speculation she would have to cut spending to meet self-imposed fiscal rules to balance the budget and bring down debt by 2030.

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They Treasury tries to calm market nerves late last week

Long-term government borrowing had reached a high not seen since 1998 while the benchmark 10-year cost of government borrowing, as measured by 10-year gilt yields, was at levels last seen around the 2008 financial crisis.

The gilt yield is effectively the interest rate investors demand to lend money to the UK government.

Only the pound has yet to recover the losses incurred during the market turbulence. Without that dropped price, however, the FTSE 100 record may not have happened.

Also acting to reduce sterling value is the chance of more interest rates. Currencies tend to weaken when interest rates are cut.

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