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Labour are on course for a majority of 200 according to a new YouGov projection, which also suggests the Tories will slump to their lowest number of seats at an election since the party’s formation in 1834.

If this projection is replicated when the country goes to the polls on 4 July, Labour would have the second largest majority since the Second World War.

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This is the second of three polling projections of this election campaign by YouGov, which Sky News has partnered with for the election. It uses a modelling technique known as MRP.

House of Commons seat projection from second Sky/YouGov MRP

The latest poll suggests Labour are on course for a majority that is six seats larger than their initial projection on 3 June, which suggested a majority of 194.

If this and other MRP polls are accurate, it suggests Britain is on the cusp of a fundamental redrawing of the political landscape.

The projection suggests Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives would plummet to 108 seats – down from the 365 won by Boris Johnson in the 2019 election.

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This would break all historical records, putting the Tories well below their previous low of 141 seats in 1906 under Arthur Balfour.

It puts Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour on course for a commanding 425 seats, more than double the 202 seats won in the 2019 election and beats all previous records for Labour since the party was founded at the start of the last century.

Sir Tony Blair won a peak of 418 seats in 1997.

Labour could be on track for a 200 seat majority

The Liberal Democrats would win 67 seats under this projection, a huge six times the number of seats they won in 2019.

This would be the highest number since the formation of the Lib Dems, a record previously set in 2005 when Charles Kennedy was leader.

Meanwhile, John Swinney’s SNP are projected to drop to 20 seats under this projection, down from the 48 won by Nicola Sturgeon in the last general election.

Nigel Farage’s Reform party is on course for five seats, the Greens on two seats and Plaid Cymru on four seats.

Vote share projections from second YouGov MRP put Labour on 39%, 18 points up on the Conservatives

Since 3 June, when the last YouGov MRP was published, the pollster has changed its calls in 59 seats.

The Tories have dropped 32 seats since, Labour has gained three seats in this projection, while the Lib Dems are up 19, SNP up three and Plaid up two.

Reform wins five seats under the new projection, having previously been on course to win none according to YouGov. This includes Mr Farage winning his seat in Clacton.

Big name losses projected

The MRP poll also means big name losers on election night.

Some 15 of 27 cabinet members still standing in the election are set to lose, according to this projection.

The new cabinet casualties are Victoria Atkins, the health secretary, Lucy Frazer, the culture secretary, Richard Holden, the Conservative Party chair and Michael Tomlinson, who attends cabinet as an immigration minister.

This adds to Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, the defence secretary and Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons.

Some 29 of the 45 ministers running in this election are projected to lose, including Steve Baker, the Northern Ireland minister, Chris Philp, the crime minister, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, the foreign office minister and Greg Hands, the trade minister.

Other notable Tory casualties include Robert Jenrick in Newark and Caroline Nokes in Romsey and Southampton North.

One Labour shadow cabinet member, Thangam Debbonaire, is still set to lose her Bristol West seat to the Greens.

What is an MRP poll?

You might come across the term MRP quite a lot in the coming weeks as we head towards the general election on 4 July.

An MRP poll – which stands for multilevel regression and post-stratification – is a type of poll that gets pundits excited because it draws from large amounts of data, including a large sample size and additional information like locations.

MRP polls first ask a large representative sample of people how they will vote. They then use that information of how different groups say they will vote combined with information about the sorts of people who live in different constituencies. This allows the pollster to estimate how people will vote in each constituency across the country – even when they may have surveyed just a few people, or even none, in some places.

This can then be broken down into smaller groups to see how voters in different areas say they plan to vote. Rather than making more generalised assumptions that everyone behaves the same way in different constituencies, it takes into account the fact that every constituency is its own race and local issues and trends may be at play.

What MRP can’t do is account for very specific local factors – such as a hospital or large employer closing down in a constituency, or a scandal relating to a particular candidate.

It still involves a lot of assumptions and estimates – and some races are too close to call with any level of certainty. It also only gives a snapshot of people’s opinions, and a lot can change over the course of an election campaign. However, it does give us a more nuanced idea about what the general election result could be than other more generic polls.

Some 109 seats are still listed as a “tossup”.

If all tossup and close races in every seat where Conservatives are second went in their favour, rather than in the direction assumed in this poll, then Labour would still have a majority of 132. The Conservatives in that scenario would win 153 seats – still their lowest on record and far below what Labour won in 2019 under Jeremy Corbyn.

The projection vote shares, implied by this MRP, are Labour on 39%, the Tories on 22%, Reform on 15%, Lib Dems on 12% and Greens on 7%.

The Conservatives are 32 seats worse off compared with the last YouGov MRP

This means the Labour majority and seat tally have both gone up, even though Labour’s implied vote share is down three points since the start of June. The big winners are Reform, up from 10% to 15% and the Lib Dems, up from 11% to 12%.

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The polling for the projection was conducted from last Tuesday until this Tuesday with 39,979 people interviewed online: 36,161 in England and Wales and 3,818 in Scotland.

It suggests the Conservatives would be a party predominantly of the south east, south west and east of England. The party risks an all or near wipe out in the north east, in Wales and the north west.

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Royal Navy intercepts Russian warship and tanker

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Royal Navy intercepts Russian warship and tanker

A Royal Navy patrol ship has intercepted two Russian vessels off the UK coast, the Ministry of Defence has said.

It comes after Defence Secretary John Healey announced last Wednesday that lasers from Russian spy ship the Yantar were directed at RAF pilots tracking it, in an attempt to disrupt the monitoring.

The MoD said on Sunday that in a “round-the-clock shadowing operation”, the Royal Navy ship HMS Severn has intercepted Russian warship RFN Stoikiy and tanker Yelnya off the UK coast in the past fortnight.

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Russian ship ‘directed lasers at our pilots’

The Russian vessels sailed through the Dover Strait and westward through the English Channel, the MoD said.

HMS Severn later handed over monitoring duties to a NATO ally off the coast of Brittany, France, it said, but continued to watch from a distance and remained ready to respond to any unexpected activity.

The ministry added that the UK’s armed forces are on patrol “from the English Channel to the High North” amid increased Russian activity threatening UK waters.

Last week, Russia accused the British government of “provocative statements” after the defence secretary warned the Yantar was nearing the UK.

At a news conference in Downing Street on Wednesday, Mr Healey said the spy ship was on the edge of British waters north of Scotland, having entered wider UK waters over the last few weeks.

He said it was the second time this year the Yantar had been deployed off the UK coast and he claimed it was “designed for gathering intelligence and mapping our undersea cables”.

HMS Severn tracking of Russian corvette RFN Stoikiy and tanker Yelnya off the UK coast. Pic: MoD
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HMS Severn tracking of Russian corvette RFN Stoikiy and tanker Yelnya off the UK coast. Pic: MoD

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Mr Healey said the ship had “directed lasers” at pilots of a P-8 surveillance aircraft monitoring its activities – a Russian action he deemed “deeply dangerous”.

In a clear message to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the defence secretary said: “We see you. We know what you are doing. And we are ready.”

The ministry said while tracking the Yantar, Royal Navy frigate HMS Somerset and other civilian ships in the area “experienced GPS jamming in a further demonstration of unprofessional behaviour, intended to be disruptive and a nuisance”.

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What is Russian spy ship up to?

Russia’s UK embassy dismissed the accusations and insisted the Yantar is a research ship in international waters.

The defence secretary also repeated government plans to increase defence spending and work with NATO allies to bolster European security.

And he stressed how plans to buy weapons and build arms factories will create jobs and economic growth.

HMS Somerset flanking Russian ship the Yantar near UK waters on 22 January 2025. File pic: Royal Navy/PA
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HMS Somerset flanking Russian ship the Yantar near UK waters on 22 January 2025. File pic: Royal Navy/PA

A report by a group of MPs, also released on Wednesday, underlined the scale of the challenge the UK faces.

It accused the government of lacking a national plan to defend itself from attack.

The Defence Select Committee also warned that Mr Healey, the prime minister and the rest of the cabinet are moving at a “glacial” pace to fix the issue and are failing to launch a “national conversation on defence and security” – something Sir Keir Starmer had promised last year.

Russian ship the Yantar transiting through the English Channel. File pic: MoD
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Russian ship the Yantar transiting through the English Channel. File pic: MoD

The UK has seen a 30% increase in Russian vessels threatening UK waters in the past two years, according to the MoD.

But the ministry maintained the UK has a wide range of military options at its disposal to keep UK waters safe.

Three RAF P-8 Poseidon aircraft have deployed to Keflavik Air Base in Iceland in the largest overseas deployment of the RAF P-8 fleet so far, the MoD said.

They are conducting surveillance operations as part of NATO’s collective defence, patrolling for Russian ships and submarines in the North Atlantic and Arctic.

The operations come just weeks after HMS Duncan tracked the movements of Russian destroyer Vice Admiral Kulakov, and frigate HMS Iron Duke was dispatched to monitor Russian Kilo-class submarine Novorossiysk.

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Ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans for Aston Villa game ‘based on false hooligan claims’

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Ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans for Aston Villa game 'based on false hooligan claims'

West Midlands Police has defended the ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans attending an Aston Villa match after it was claimed that false intelligence was used.

Supporters of the Israeli club were barred from the Europa League fixture at Villa Park on 6 November.

West Midlands Police chief superintendent Tom Joyce told Sky News before the game that a “section” of Maccabi’s fanbase engaged in “quite significant levels of hooliganism”.

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‘Hooliganism’ blamed for Maccabi Tel Aviv ban

According to The Sunday Times, West Midlands Police claimed in a confidential dossier that when Maccabi played Ajax in Amsterdam last year, Israeli fans threw “innocent members of the public into the river”, and added that between 500 and 600 supporters had “intentionally targeted Muslim communities”.

The report also said 5,000 Dutch police officers had been deployed in response.

However, the Netherlands’ national police force has questioned the claims, reportedly describing information cited by its British officers as “not true” and in some instances obviously inaccurate.

Sebastiaan Meijer, a spokesman for the Amsterdam division, told The Sunday Times that he was “surprised” by allegations in the West Midlands Police report, which had linked 200 travelling supporters to the Israel Defence Forces (IDF).

Mr Meijer denied that his force had such intelligence, adding that the claim was meaningless given the country had a policy of conscription.

Also, Mr Meijer said that Amsterdam’s force “does not recognise” the claim in the British report, attributed to Dutch law enforcement, that Israelis were “highly organised, skilled fighters with a serious desire and will to fight with police and opposing groups”.

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Heavy police presence for Aston Villa v Maccabi Tel Aviv

The Dutch police added that the only known case of a fan being in the river appeared to involve a Maccabi supporter. While being filmed, he was told he could leave the water on the condition that he said “Free Palestine”.

In an interview with Sky News before the game, West Midlands Police referenced disorder when Maccabi played Ajax in Amsterdam last November.

Mr Joyce said ahead of the Villa Park match: “We’ve had examples where a section of Maccabi fans were targeting people not involved in football matches, and certainly we had an incident in Amsterdam last year which has informed some of our decision-making.

“So it is exclusively a decision we made on the basis of the behaviour of a sub-section of Maccabi fans, but all the reaction that could occur obviously formed part of that as well.”

Pro-Israel supporters are led away from Villa Park before a Europa League tie on 6 November. Pic: PA
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Pro-Israel supporters are led away from Villa Park before a Europa League tie on 6 November. Pic: PA

Maccabi’s visit to Birmingham came amid heightened tensions due to Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza.

A safety advisory group (SAG) recommended that Maccabi fans should be banned from attending the fixture on the advice of the police. The ban drew criticism, and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said it was the “wrong decision”.

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Mounted police outside Villa Park for the game. Pic: PA
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Mounted police outside Villa Park for the game. Pic: PA

West Midland Police’s statement in full

Following The Sunday Times report, West Midlands Police stood by its “information and intelligence”, adding that the “Maccabi Fanatics… posed a credible threat to safety”.

In a statement to Sky News, the force said: “West Midlands Police’s evaluation was based primarily on information and intelligence and had public safety at its heart.

“We assessed the fixture between Ajax and Maccabi Tel Aviv in Amsterdam as having involved significant public disorder.

“We met with Dutch police on 1 October, where information relating to that 2024 fixture was shared with us.

“Informed by information and intelligence, we concluded that Maccabi Tel Aviv supporters – specifically the subgroup known as the Maccabi Fanatics – posed a credible threat to public safety.

“The submission made to the SAG safety advisory group was based on information and intelligence which helped shape understanding of the risks.

“West Midlands Police commissioned a peer review, which was conducted by UKFPU [United Kingdom Policing Unit], the NPCC [National Police Chiefs’ Council] and subject matter experts.

“This review, carried out on 20 October, fully endorsed the force’s approach and decision-making.

“We are satisfied that the policing strategy and operational plan was effective, proportionate, and maintained the city’s reputation as a safe and welcoming place for everyone.”

Sky News has approached Dutch police for comment.

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Titanic couple’s pocket watch sells for record £1.78m

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Titanic couple's pocket watch sells for record £1.78m

A gold pocket watch that belonged to an elderly couple who drowned as the Titanic sunk has sold for a record-breaking £1.78m at auction.

The 18-carat Jules Jurgensen engraved watch was owned by first class passenger Isidor Straus, who died when the ship sank in April 1912.

He and his wife Ida were portrayed in the film Titanic as a couple who held each other as the ship went down.

When he was offered a seat on a lifeboat due to his age, he replied that he would not go before other men.

His wife refused to leave him, and the couple were last seen alive sitting on deckchairs, facing fate by each other’s side.

They were among very few first class passengers to perish in the disaster.

The watch was recovered from Mr Straus’s body along with other personal items and returned to his family.

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It had been a present for his 43rd birthday in 1888 – the same year he became a partner in the New York department store, Macy’s.

A letter written by Mrs Straus on Titanic stationery and posted while onboard. Pic: PA
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A letter written by Mrs Straus on Titanic stationery and posted while onboard. Pic: PA

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The watch, which had remained in the couple’s family, was sold at Henry Aldridge & Son Auctioneers in Devizes, Wiltshire.

The £1.78m for the item is the highest amount ever paid for Titanic memorabilia, according to the company.

A letter written by Mrs Straus on Titanic stationery and posted while onboard the ship fetched £100,000.

The previous record was set last year when another gold pocket watch presented to the captain of a boat that rescued over 700 passengers from the liner sold for £1.56m.

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