Labour on course for 200-seat majority and Tories to have fewest MPs ever, new poll shows
Labour are on course for a majority of 200 according to a new YouGov projection, which also suggests the Tories will slump to their lowest number of seats at an election since the party’s formation in 1834.
If this projection is replicated when the country goes to the polls on 4 July, Labour would have the second largest majority since the Second World War.
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This is the second of three polling projections of this election campaign by YouGov, which Sky News has partnered with for the election. It uses a modelling technique known as MRP.
The latest poll suggests Labour are on course for a majority that is six seats larger than their initial projection on 3 June, which suggested a majority of 194.
If this and other MRP polls are accurate, it suggests Britain is on the cusp of a fundamental redrawing of the political landscape.
The projection suggests Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives would plummet to 108 seats – down from the 365 won by Boris Johnson in the 2019 election.
This would break all historical records, putting the Tories well below their previous low of 141 seats in 1906 under Arthur Balfour.
It puts Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour on course for a commanding 425 seats, more than double the 202 seats won in the 2019 election and beats all previous records for Labour since the party was founded at the start of the last century.
Sir Tony Blair won a peak of 418 seats in 1997.
The Liberal Democrats would win 67 seats under this projection, a huge six times the number of seats they won in 2019.
This would be the highest number since the formation of the Lib Dems, a record previously set in 2005 when Charles Kennedy was leader.
Meanwhile, John Swinney’s SNP are projected to drop to 20 seats under this projection, down from the 48 won by Nicola Sturgeon in the last general election.
Nigel Farage’s Reform party is on course for five seats, the Greens on two seats and Plaid Cymru on four seats.
Since 3 June, when the last YouGov MRP was published, the pollster has changed its calls in 59 seats.
The Tories have dropped 32 seats since, Labour has gained three seats in this projection, while the Lib Dems are up 19, SNP up three and Plaid up two.
Reform wins five seats under the new projection, having previously been on course to win none according to YouGov. This includes Mr Farage winning his seat in Clacton.
Big name losses projected
The MRP poll also means big name losers on election night.
Some 15 of 27 cabinet members still standing in the election are set to lose, according to this projection.
The new cabinet casualties are Victoria Atkins, the health secretary, Lucy Frazer, the culture secretary, Richard Holden, the Conservative Party chair and Michael Tomlinson, who attends cabinet as an immigration minister.
This adds to Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, the defence secretary and Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons.
Some 29 of the 45 ministers running in this election are projected to lose, including Steve Baker, the Northern Ireland minister, Chris Philp, the crime minister, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, the foreign office minister and Greg Hands, the trade minister.
Other notable Tory casualties include Robert Jenrick in Newark and Caroline Nokes in Romsey and Southampton North.
One Labour shadow cabinet member, Thangam Debbonaire, is still set to lose her Bristol West seat to the Greens.
Some 109 seats are still listed as a “tossup”.
If all tossup and close races in every seat where Conservatives are second went in their favour, rather than in the direction assumed in this poll, then Labour would still have a majority of 132. The Conservatives in that scenario would win 153 seats – still their lowest on record and far below what Labour won in 2019 under Jeremy Corbyn.
The projection vote shares, implied by this MRP, are Labour on 39%, the Tories on 22%, Reform on 15%, Lib Dems on 12% and Greens on 7%.
This means the Labour majority and seat tally have both gone up, even though Labour’s implied vote share is down three points since the start of June. The big winners are Reform, up from 10% to 15% and the Lib Dems, up from 11% to 12%.
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The polling for the projection was conducted from last Tuesday until this Tuesday with 39,979 people interviewed online: 36,161 in England and Wales and 3,818 in Scotland.
It suggests the Conservatives would be a party predominantly of the south east, south west and east of England. The party risks an all or near wipe out in the north east, in Wales and the north west.
Canterbury MP Rosie Duffield has resigned from the Labour Party.
The 53-year-old MP is the first to jump ship since the general election and in her resignation letter criticised the prime minister for accepting thousands of pounds worth of gifts.
She told Sir Keir Starmer the reason for leaving now is “the programme of policies you seem determined to stick to”, despite their unpopularity with the electorate and MPs.
In her letter she accused the prime minister and his top team of “sleaze, nepotism and apparent avarice” which are “off the scale”.
“I’m so ashamed of what you and your inner circle have done to tarnish and humiliate our once proud party,” she said.
Rosie Duffield. Pic: UK Parliament/Jessica Taylor/Handout via Reuters
Sir Keir has faced backlash after a Sky News report revealed he had received substantially more freebies than any other MP since becoming Labour leader.
Since December 2019, the prime minister received £107,145 in gifts, benefits, and hospitality – a specific category in parliament’s register of MPs’ interests.
Ms Duffield, who has previously clashed with the prime minister on gender issues, attacked the government for pursuing “cruel and unnecessary” policies as she resigned the Labour whip.
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She criticised the decision to keep the two-child benefit cap and means-test the winter fuel payment, and accused the prime minister of “hypocrisy” over his acceptance of free gifts from donors.
“Since the change of government in July, the revelations of hypocrisy have been staggering and increasingly outrageous,” she said.
“I cannot put into words how angry I and my colleagues are at your total lack of understanding about how you have made us all appear.”
Ms Duffield also mentioned the recent “treatment of Diane Abbott”, who said she thought she had been barred from standing by Labour ahead of the general election, before Sir Keir said she would be allowed to defend her Hackney North and Stoke Newington seat for the party.
Her relationship with the Labour leadership has long been strained and her decision to quit the party comes after seven other Labour MPs were suspended for rebelling by voting for a motion calling for the two-child benefit cap to be abolished.
“Someone with far-above-average wealth choosing to keep the Conservatives’ two-child limit to benefit payments which entrenches children in poverty, while inexplicably accepting expensive personal gifts of designer suits and glasses costing more than most of those people can grasp – this is entirely undeserving of holding the title of Labour prime minister,” she said.
Ms Duffield said she will continue to represent her constituents as an independent MP, “guided by my core Labour values”.
UK
King Charles hails ‘uniquely special’ Scotland as it marks Holyrood milestone – before being hugged by woman
The King has paid tribute to Scotland as a “uniquely special place” for the Royal Family as he marked the 25th anniversary of the Scottish parliament.
At the ceremony to commemorate a quarter of a century since parliament opened at Holyrood, the King said: “Speaking from a personal perspective, Scotland has always had a uniquely special place in the hearts of my family and myself.
“My beloved grandmother was proudly Scottish, my late mother especially treasured the time spent at Balmoral, and it was there in the most beloved of places, where she chose to spend her final days.”
He said we are all “united by our love of Scotland”, paying tribute to its “natural beauty”, “strength of character”, “diversity of its people”, “passions and frequently deeply held beliefs”.
“From the central belt to the north Highlands, across the islands in Ayrshire, in the Borders, the cities, towns and villages, all the coastal communities, who I wonder, could not fail to be moved by this complex Caledonian kaleidoscope?,” he asked as presiding officer Alison Johnstone and the Queen sat beside him.
After he gave the speech, the King was hugged by a member of the public – who said she did so “because of him being unwell”.
The 75-year-old was diagnosed with cancer in February but has since returned to public duties.
Yvonne Macmillan, 59, from East Renfrewshire, attended the anniversary ceremony with her husband Russell who is registered blind and chosen as a “local hero” for work in their area.
“I asked him if he was feeling better and if I could give him a hug. I actually said to him: ‘Can I hug you?’,” she said.
“As I hugged him I said, ‘God bless you’, so it was like God giving him a hug.”
The King listens to the presiding officer of the Scottish parliament at Holyrood. Pic: PA
The Queen sits alongside the King as he makes his speech on Saturday. Pic: PA
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While Sir Tony Blair’s Labour government legislated for Scottish devolution in 1997 – parliament officially opened at Holyrood on 1 July 1999.
The King has made six visits to the parliament since 1999 – while his mother Queen Elizabeth II made 10 visits during her lifetime.
The King arrives at the Scottish parliament on Saturday. Pic: PA
Scottish First Minister John Swinney is one of a number of MSPs who have been at Holyrood since the start of devolution.
He said in his own speech in Edinburgh on Saturday that the parliament has “placed itself at the very heart of the nation”, describing it as a “vessel of enlightenment, invention and creativity”.
The King shakes hands with First Minister John Swinney in Edinburgh on Saturday. Pic: PA
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The SNP’s Christine Grahame is another MSP who has been there since the start.
“Free tuition, free prescriptions, game-changing policies to tackle child poverty, the ban on smoking, the baby box, ScotRail back in public ownership – none of this would have been possible without the Scottish parliament and the strength of our commitment to self-determination,” she said on Saturday.
The King said the devolved parliament has the ability to “touch and to improve the lives of so many individuals”.
Former first ministers Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf take a selfie as they wait for the King. Pic: PA
But he added that “there remains much more to be done” for Scotland, the rest of the UK, particularly with regards to climate change.
“Let this moment therefore be the beginning of the next chapter,” he told those assembled.
“The achievement of the past and the commitment shown in the present give us the soundest basis for confidence in the future.”
A moped riding phone thief was caught red-handed after police tracked the device down hours after he snatched it from a woman’s hand.
CCTV footage released by police showed a masked moped rider mount the pavement in Croydon, south London, to swipe a phone from a woman’s hand on 6 March, while another victim had theirs stolen while they waited for a bus an hour later.
Amari Scott, 20, looked surprised when confronted by officers inside a shop, where he was found with two mobile phones.
Amari Scott was caught red-handed. Pic: Met Police
“We’ve just had a moped rob a mobile phone off the pavement and the phone is pinging in this location,” one of the officers told him in body-worn camera footage before Scott was handcuffed and led away.
Police also recovered a stolen motorbike and Scott, from Sutton, south London, was later jailed for four years.
Two teenagers who committed four robberies in the space of just half an hour were also arrested as part of a crackdown in Croydon.
Aged 16 and 17, the teens were issued with referral orders after pleading guilty to charges of robbery, attempted robbery and attempted grievous bodily harm.
Amari Scott was jailed for four years. Pic: Met Police
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They were behind a spree of eight robberies across Croydon and nearby Bromley, including four within 30 minutes on the morning of 5 August.
Their crimes, which included the knife point robbery of a rough sleeper outside Croydon library, were caught on CCTV.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
One of the teenagers tried to discard a knife before she was arrested after a foot chase, telling officers: “The knife wasn’t mine”.
The other ran away, leaving a knife and his bag, but was lying in bed at home when he was arrested shortly after.
Two teenagers committed four robberies in 30 minutes. Pic: Met Police
The Metropolitan Police said officers are intensifying efforts to tackle robbery and theft, encouraging victims to report incidents as they happen to increase the chances of catching the criminals.
Chief Inspector James Weston said: “We understand the impact that robbery has on victims – it is invasive and frightening.
“That’s why our teams are working so hard to deter and catch offenders to reassure our local community.
“Thanks to the hard work of officers, our partners and community grassroots organisations, we are stepping up our efforts and tackling the issues that matter most to the people of Croydon.”
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