Labour on course for 200-seat majority and Tories to have fewest MPs ever, new poll shows
Labour are on course for a majority of 200 according to a new YouGov projection, which also suggests the Tories will slump to their lowest number of seats at an election since the party’s formation in 1834.
If this projection is replicated when the country goes to the polls on 4 July, Labour would have the second largest majority since the Second World War.
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This is the second of three polling projections of this election campaign by YouGov, which Sky News has partnered with for the election. It uses a modelling technique known as MRP.
The latest poll suggests Labour are on course for a majority that is six seats larger than their initial projection on 3 June, which suggested a majority of 194.
If this and other MRP polls are accurate, it suggests Britain is on the cusp of a fundamental redrawing of the political landscape.
The projection suggests Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives would plummet to 108 seats – down from the 365 won by Boris Johnson in the 2019 election.
This would break all historical records, putting the Tories well below their previous low of 141 seats in 1906 under Arthur Balfour.
It puts Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour on course for a commanding 425 seats, more than double the 202 seats won in the 2019 election and beats all previous records for Labour since the party was founded at the start of the last century.
Sir Tony Blair won a peak of 418 seats in 1997.
The Liberal Democrats would win 67 seats under this projection, a huge six times the number of seats they won in 2019.
This would be the highest number since the formation of the Lib Dems, a record previously set in 2005 when Charles Kennedy was leader.
Meanwhile, John Swinney’s SNP are projected to drop to 20 seats under this projection, down from the 48 won by Nicola Sturgeon in the last general election.
Nigel Farage’s Reform party is on course for five seats, the Greens on two seats and Plaid Cymru on four seats.
Since 3 June, when the last YouGov MRP was published, the pollster has changed its calls in 59 seats.
The Tories have dropped 32 seats since, Labour has gained three seats in this projection, while the Lib Dems are up 19, SNP up three and Plaid up two.
Reform wins five seats under the new projection, having previously been on course to win none according to YouGov. This includes Mr Farage winning his seat in Clacton.
Big name losses projected
The MRP poll also means big name losers on election night.
Some 15 of 27 cabinet members still standing in the election are set to lose, according to this projection.
The new cabinet casualties are Victoria Atkins, the health secretary, Lucy Frazer, the culture secretary, Richard Holden, the Conservative Party chair and Michael Tomlinson, who attends cabinet as an immigration minister.
This adds to Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, the defence secretary and Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons.
Some 29 of the 45 ministers running in this election are projected to lose, including Steve Baker, the Northern Ireland minister, Chris Philp, the crime minister, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, the foreign office minister and Greg Hands, the trade minister.
Other notable Tory casualties include Robert Jenrick in Newark and Caroline Nokes in Romsey and Southampton North.
One Labour shadow cabinet member, Thangam Debbonaire, is still set to lose her Bristol West seat to the Greens.
Some 109 seats are still listed as a “tossup”.
If all tossup and close races in every seat where Conservatives are second went in their favour, rather than in the direction assumed in this poll, then Labour would still have a majority of 132. The Conservatives in that scenario would win 153 seats – still their lowest on record and far below what Labour won in 2019 under Jeremy Corbyn.
The projection vote shares, implied by this MRP, are Labour on 39%, the Tories on 22%, Reform on 15%, Lib Dems on 12% and Greens on 7%.
This means the Labour majority and seat tally have both gone up, even though Labour’s implied vote share is down three points since the start of June. The big winners are Reform, up from 10% to 15% and the Lib Dems, up from 11% to 12%.
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The polling for the projection was conducted from last Tuesday until this Tuesday with 39,979 people interviewed online: 36,161 in England and Wales and 3,818 in Scotland.
It suggests the Conservatives would be a party predominantly of the south east, south west and east of England. The party risks an all or near wipe out in the north east, in Wales and the north west.
Nigel Farage has told Sky News he “can’t be pushed or bullied” by anybody after Elon Musk said the Reform MP “doesn’t have what it takes” to lead his party.
In an interview with Sky’s political correspondent Ali Fortescue, Mr Farage said he has spoken with the billionaire owner of X since his criticism on 5 January, when Mr Musk said: “The Reform Party needs a new leader. Farage doesn’t have what it takes.”
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Asked if the pair are still friends, Mr Farage said: “Of course we’re friends. He just says what he thinks at any moment in time.”
He added he has “been in touch” with Mr Musk, though wouldn’t divulge what they had discussed.
“Look, he said lots of supportive things. He said one thing that wasn’t supportive. I mean, that’s just the way it is,” Mr Farage said.
Musk and Farage met in December. Pic: PA
Asked if he was afraid to criticise the tech mogul, the Clacton MP said the situation was “the opposite”, and he openly disagreed with Mr Musk on his views on far-right activist Tommy Robinson.
Mr Farage said: “What he [Musk] was saying online was that effectively Tommy Robinson was a political prisoner and I wouldn’t go along with that.
“If I had gone along with that, he wouldn’t have put out a tweet that was against me.
“By the way, you know, I can’t be pushed or bullied or made to change by anybody.
“I stick to what I believe.”
Mr Musk has endorsed Robinson and claimed he was “telling the truth” about grooming gangs, writing on X: “Free Tommy Robinson”.
But Mr Farage said that Robinson, who is serving an 18-month jail term for contempt of court, isn’t welcome in Reform UK and neither are his supporters.
He said: “If people within Reform think Tommy Robinson should be a member of Reform and play a central role in Reform, that disagreement is absolutely fundamental.
“I’ve never wanted to work with people who were active in the BNP. I’ve made that clear right throughout the last decade of my on/off political career. So that’s what the point of difference is.”
Despite their disagreement, Mr Farage said he is confident Mr Musk will continue to support Reform and “may well” still give money to it.
The entrepreneur has previously spoken positively about Reform UK and there have been suggestions he could make a multi-million-pound donation in its favour.
Devolution plans ‘denial of democracy’
Mr Farage was speaking from Reform’s South East of England Conference, one of a series of regional events aimed at building up the party’s support base.
Elsewhere in the interview, he hit out at the Labour government’s devolution plans which could see some local elections scheduled for May postponed.
This would apply when councils seek permission to reorganise, so that smaller district authorities merge with other nearby ones to give them more sway over their area.
Mr Farage, who is hoping to make gains in the spring contests, claimed the plans are not about devolution but about “elections being cancelled”.
“I thought only dictators cancelled elections. This is unbelievable and devolution or a change to local government structures is being used as an excuse,” he said.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage earlier this month. Pic: PA
He claimed Tory-controlled councils are “grabbing it like it’s a life belt”, because they fear losing seats to Reform.
“It’s an absolute denial of democracy,” he added.
Mr Farage was also asked why many Reform members don’t like to speak on camera about why they support his party.
He said he did not accept there was a toxicity associated with Reform and claimed there was “institutional bias against anybody that isn’t left of centre”.
Specialist search teams, police dogs and divers have been dispatched to find two sisters who vanished in Aberdeen three days ago.
Eliza and Henrietta Huszti, both 32, were last seen on CCTV in the city’s Market Street at Victoria Bridge at about 2.12am on Tuesday.
The siblings were captured crossing the bridge and turning right onto a footpath next to the River Dee in the direction of Aberdeen Boat Club.
Henrietta Huszti. Pic: Police Scotland
Eliza Huszti. Pic: Police Scotland
Police Scotland has launched a major search and said it is carrying out “extensive inquires” in an effort to find the women.
Chief Inspector Darren Bruce said: “Local officers, led by specialist search advisors, are being assisted by resources including police dogs and our marine unit.”
Aberdeenshire Drone Services told Sky News it has offered to help in the search and is waiting to hear back from Police Scotland.
CCTV of the sisters. Pic: Police Scotland
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The sisters, from Aberdeen city centre, are described as slim with long brown hair.
Police said the Torry side of Victoria Bridge where the sisters were last seen contains many commercial and industrial units, with searches taking place in the vicinity.
The force urged businesses in and around the South Esplanade and Menzies Road area to review CCTV footage recorded in the early hours of Tuesday in case it captured anything of significance.
Drivers with relevant dashcam footage are also urged to come forward.
CI Bruce added: “We are continuing to speak to people who know Eliza and Henrietta and we urge anyone who has seen them or who has any information regarding their whereabouts to please contact 101.”
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