Has Rishi Sunak blundered by opting for long, six-week election campaign?
The grim news for the Tories in the latest Sky News/YouGov poll begs another question about Rishi Sunak’s political judgement. Was a long election campaign a blunder?
The prime minister is already under fire from Conservative MPs and activists for gambling on an election in July rather than waiting for October or November.
The conventional wisdom was that economic news would be better by the autumn and deportation flights to Rwanda would help stop the boats bringing migrants across the Channel.
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But as well as doubts about a July poll, the big slump in Tory support since the last Sky News/YouGov poll on June 3, suggests a long campaign of six weeks may also have backfired.
On 22 May, the day the prime minister made his shock general election announcement, some veteran Tory MPs privately questioned Mr Sunak’s decision to fight a long campaign.
“Margaret used to have three or four-week campaigns,” one long-serving Conservative MP who has stepped down told Sky News, in a reference to three-times election winner Mrs Thatcher.
But with the Tories trailing badly behind Labour in the polls for months, Mr Sunak clearly hoped a long election campaign would give his party more time to recover and close the gap.
However, the opposite appears to have happened. As the campaign continues, with polling day still two weeks away, opinion polls are suggesting bigger Conservative losses, not smaller.
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Poll: Labour on course for best-ever election result
On 3 June our YouGov poll suggested the Conservatives would hold 140 seats. Now the same pollsters are suggesting they’d hold just 108, well below their previous lowest of 141 in 1906.
The big change of course, has been Nigel Farage’s dramatic comeback as Reform UK leader on 3 June. In the Sky News/YouGov poll that day, Reform UK was not forecast to win any seats.
Now it’s five, including Mr Farage in Clacton. The other big movers are the Liberal Democrats, forecast to win 48 seats on 3 June, now 67. The latest poll is good news for smaller parties generally.
Labour’s seat projection is up slightly from 422 seats to 425 and its majority is up from 194 to 200. But it’s the Tory slump that’s the big change since the early days of the campaign.
So are those veteran MPs who lamented the glory days of Mrs Thatcher correct about previous Tory prime ministers opting for shorter campaigns? It would appear so.
Had Mr Sunak waited to call the election until January 2025 – the end of a maximum five-year term – parliament would have automatically been dissolved 25 working days before polling day, meaning he could have opted for a shorter campaign.
In 1983, when Mrs Thatcher won a landslide majority of 144 seats, she had announced the election on 9 May, parliament was dissolved on 13 May and polling day was four weeks later on 9 June.
Sunak gambled on a July election Pic: PA
It was a similar story in 1987. Mrs Thatcher announced the election on 11 May and polling day was a month later on 11 June, when she won a second landslide and a majority of 102.
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In 1992, when Sir John Major pulled off a shock victory after months of trailing Neil Kinnock’s Labour badly in the opinion polls, the election campaign again lasted just 30 days.
Sir John asked the Queen to dissolve parliament on 11 March and voters went to polls on 9 April, when the Conservatives won a 21-seat majority over Labour.
Lord Cameron’s 2015 campaign, after five years of a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition was longer. Parliament was dissolved on 30 March and the election was on 7 May, when he won a Tory majority of 10.
Margaret Thatcher used to have three to four week campaigns. Pic: PA
In the most recent general election, Boris Johnson’s dash to the polls in 2019, parliament was dissolved on 6 November and the election was on 12 December, with Mr Johnson winning an 80-seat majority.
This time, Mr Sunak has chosen a gruelling six-week campaign. More time for mistakes? And more time for the Tories’ opponents – Labour, the Lib Dems and Reform UK – to gain momentum?
It’s starting to look like that. At times since his D-day fiasco, the prime minister has looked crestfallen. Now senior Tories are talking about a Labour “super-majority” and a “blank cheque” for Sir Keir Starmer.
And there are still two weeks to go in this long, six-week campaign. But that was Mr Sunak’s choice.
Efforts to pass crypto legislation in the US Senate face mounting resistance amid growing ethical concerns around US President Donald Trump’s ties to crypto.
In a May 5 letter to the Office of Government Ethics, Senators Elizabeth Warren and Jeff Merkley said that Trump and his family stand to personally profit from an investment involving UAE state-backed firm MGX, crypto exchange Binance and World Liberty Financial (WLFI).
The senators called for an urgent probe, warning the deal may violate the US Constitution’s Emoluments Clause and federal bribery statutes.
At the center of the controversy is WLFI’s USD1 stablecoin, reportedly chosen for a $2 billion investment MGX plans to make into Binance.
The senators said the transaction amounts to a potential backdoor for foreign influence and self-enrichment, with Trump’s allies allegedly set to receive hundreds of millions of dollars:
“This deal raises the troubling prospect that the Trump and Witkoff families could expand the use of their stablecoin as an avenue to profit from foreign corruption.”
Further complicating ethics concerns, Trump hosted a $1.5 million-per-plate dinner on May 5 at his golf club in Sterling, Virginia. The event came just days after hosting a $1 million-per-plate fundraiser for the MAGA super PAC.
He also plans to hold a gala dinner with major Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin holders on May 22, despite multiple US lawmakers expressing concerns.
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GENIUS Act faces roadblocks
The Trump family’s controversial $2 billion crypto deal comes as the Senate prepares to vote on the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act and other crypto-related bills.
The fallout is already being felt in Congress. Some Democratic lawmakers are pushing for additional hearings before advancing any legislation, while others question whether Trump’s personal stake in digital assets is undermining bipartisan support for crypto regulation.
On May 5, Senate Majority Leader John Thune signaled a willingness to amend the GOP-backed stablecoin legislation to pass the bill in the coming weeks.
Speaking to reporters, Thune said changes can be made on the floor and that he is waiting to hear what Democrats are asking for, per a report from Politico.
Internal GOP challenges also remain, with Senator Rand Paul expressing uncertainty about backing the bill, according to the report.
The stalling isn’t limited to the Senate. House Financial Services Committee ranking member Representative Maxine Waters plans to block a Republican-led event discussing digital assets on May 6.
The hearing, “American Innovation and the Future of Digital Assets,” will discuss a new crypto markets draft discussion paper pitched by the House agricultural and financial services committee chairs, Representatives Glenn Thompson and French Hill, respectively.
Related: Elizabeth Warren joins call for probe of Trump over crypto tokens
Crypto community slams political pushback
Prominent crypto figures are speaking out as political resistance threatens to derail stablecoin legislation in the Senate.
“Elizabeth Warren and Chuck Schumer haven’t learned their lesson,” Tyler Winklevoss, co-founder of Gemini, posted on X.
“If they want Democrats to continue losing elections, they will continue standing in front of crypto legislation like the stablecoin bill which they are stalling out in the Senate.”
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Alex Mashinsky, the founder and former CEO of bankrupt crypto lending platform Celsius, has blasted the government’s 20-year “venom-laced” sentence request, declaring it a “death-in-prison sentence.”
The US Department of Justice requested Mashinsky receive at least 20 years behind bars in the May 8 sentencing for his role in misleading Celsius users and profiting from the price manipulation of Celsius (CEL), which would make the 59-year-old 79 if he serves the whole sentence.
Lawyers acting for Mashinsky argued in a May 5 reply memorandum filed in a New York district court that he should receive no more than 366 days, because the DOJ hasn’t taken into account his status as a nonviolent first-time offender with a previously unblemished 30-year history in business.
“The government’s venom-laced submission recasts this case as one involving a predator with an intent to target victims, harm them, and steal their money,” they said.
“It concludes by recommending that a first time, nonviolent offender who pled guilty and accepts responsibility receive a death-in-prison sentence.”
Mashinsky pleaded guilty to two out of seven charges
As part of a plea agreement, Mashinsky pleaded guilty in December 2024 to commodities fraud and manipulating the price of CEL, earning $48 million by selling his holdings before Celsius collapsed in June 2022. Prosecutors initially filed seven charges in July 2023.
Lawyers acting for Mashinsky allege the DOJ’s push for a 20-year sentence is because their client is unwilling to “capitulate to the government’s exaggerated characterizations of his actions,” specifically that he was a “fraud from the get-go.”
“Alex is inserted as the scapegoat for every corporate action, every group decision, every unanimous vote, every market fluctuation, and every employee’s watercooler speculation,” they said.
As part of its April 28 sentencing request, the DOJ said Mashinsky’s guilty plea showed that his crimes were deliberate, calculated decisions to lie, deceive and steal.
Days earlier on April 23, US federal prosecutors also filed statements from hundreds of victims who lost money due to the Celsius collapse. They detailed how some had entrusted their life savings to the protocol, believing Mashinsky’s assurances that it was safe.
Related: What do crypto users want to happen to Alex Mashinsky?
Celsius filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on July 13, 2022, owing $4.7 billion to creditors after halting withdrawals in June, citing volatile market conditions.
In November 2023, a US bankruptcy court approved Celsius’ restructuring plan to repay customers, and in August 2024, $2.53 billion was paid to 251,000 creditors.
Former Celsius chief revenue officer Roni Cohen-Pavon also pleaded guilty in September 2023 to similar charges, but his Dec. 11 sentencing has been delayed until after Mashinsky is sentenced.
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A Russian-Israeli citizen allegedly involved in the $190 million Nomad bridge hack will soon be extradited to the US after he was reportedly arrested at an Israeli airport while boarding a flight to Russia.
Alexander Gurevich will be investigated for his alleged involvement in several “computer crimes,” including laundering millions of dollars and transferring stolen property allegedly connected to the Nomad Bridge hack in 2022, The Jerusalem Post reported on May 5.
Gurevich returned to Israel from an overseas trip on April 19 but was ordered to appear before the Jerusalem District Court for an extradition hearing soon after, according to the report.
On April 29, Gurevich changed his name in Israel’s Population Registry to “Alexander Block” and received a passport under that name at Israel’s Ben-Gurion Airport the next day.
He was arrested at the same airport two days later, on May 1, while waiting to board a flight to Russia.
Gurevich allegedly identified a vulnerability in the Nomad bridge, which he exploited and stole roughly $2.89 million worth of tokens from in August 2022.
Dozens of copycat hackers discovered and capitalized on the security vulnerability soon after, leading to a total loss of $190 million.
Gurevich allegedly reached out to a Nomad executive on Telegram
Prosecutors allege that shortly after the hack, Gurevich messaged Nomad’s chief technology officer, James Prestwich, on Telegram using a fake identity, admitting that he had been “amateurishly” seeking a crypto protocol to exploit.
He allegedly apologized for “the trouble he caused Prestwich and his team” and voluntarily transferred about $162,000 into a recovery wallet the company had set up.
Prestwich told Gurevich that Nomad would pay him 10% of the value of the assets he had stolen, to which Gurevich responded that he would consult his lawyer. However, Nomad never heard back from him after that.
At some point during the negotiations, Gurevich demanded a reward of $500,000 for identifying the vulnerability.
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US federal authorities filed an eight-count indictment against Gurevich in the Northern District of California on Aug. 16, 2023, in addition to obtaining a warrant for his arrest. California is where the team behind the Nomad bridge is based.
The US submitted a formal extradition request in December 2024, the Post noted.
The money laundering charges that Gurevich faces carry a maximum of 20 years, significantly harsher than what he would face in Israel.
Gurevich is believed to have arrived in Israel a few days before the $190 million exploit occurred, prompting Israeli officials to believe he carried out the attack while in Israel.
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