General election: Find out which party is spending the most on online political ads in your constituency

Published

1 year ago

June 21, 2024

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If you want a good idea of what matters to each party – its deepest desires, its darkest fears – look at where it’s spending money.

What it shows is a story of Labour spending big and spending everywhere, as it pursues a plausible supermajority, while the Conservatives retreat to fight for some of their heartland constituencies, and spend much less.

It shows the current state of play for all parties across the country. The map shows which is the biggest spender in each constituency – which parts of the country they’re fighting to win, or not to lose.

The map was created by Who Targets Me (WTM), which tracks digital political advertising and has partnered with Sky News as part of our online campaign team.

“Our map of advertising activity shows where the parties have targeted their Facebook and Instagram ads in the last week,” Sam Jeffers, executive director of WTM, says.

“In the same way careful observers track the seats party leaders visit during the campaign, the list of pages that are buying ads in each seat, helps to show whether parties think they can win there.”

We can break the map down for each party too.

You can see the Lib Dems spending big on the ‘”A30 corridor in the South West”, going for Conservative seats.

Both the Conservatives and the Greens are in a big spending battle in South Wales and the West Country.

Reform is targeting constituencies around southern Lincolnshire. And we can understand why parties are spending where they are if we compare to the predicted results from the latest YouGov MRP poll for Sky News.

We can show you how the digital war has been fought over the last few weeks – the ebb and the flow, if there has been one, between Labour and Conservative.

Labour first. They have spent by far the most this election: more than £2.7m since the start.

This is how their online campaign has spread geographically over the past six weeks.

“The map shows the scale of Labour’s ambition, with them running ads across large swathes of the country, and outcompeting both the Conservatives and Reform in England and Wales, as well as the SNP across the central belt of Scotland,” says Mr Jeffers.

Compare that to the Conservatives, who have spent only just over £1m on Meta and Google ads. And it has been dwindling: as the days go by, they’re spending less money than their competitors in big swathes of the country.

Back to the big picture. Comparing the digital spend map to the latest YouGov MRP poll for Sky News reveals some interesting battlegrounds.

The Greens spent the most of any party in any constituency up to 17 June but the MRP suggests this will be a likely Conservative hold – with the Greens coming in second. They also occupy the next two slots in the spending rankings – Bristol Central and Brighton Pavilion – and the likelihood there is that they will win.

The next highest individual constituency spender is Reform, in Great Yarmouth – which the MRP predicts Reform will win.

But in Boston and Skegness, Reform’s next highest spend, the YouGov MRP poll has a Conservative win.

But look at the Labour spend in general. As discussed, it is the biggest and most geographically widespread. And compare it to the MRP and you can see why: lots of constituencies are red, but lighter shades.

They’re toss ups or marginal calls, with only the tiniest of margins between the parties. Hence why Labour is spending so big and in so many places.

Who Targets Me continually updates the map: Click here to view.

Mr Jeffers says that “it will be a fascinating tool for the final two weeks of the campaign, showing the parties’ strategies in near real time, as they home in on the seats they hope to win or hold on 4 July.

What is an MRP poll?

You might come across the term MRP quite a lot in the coming weeks as we head towards the general election on 4 July.

An MRP poll – which stands for multilevel regression and post-stratification – is a type of poll that gets pundits excited because it draws from large amounts of data, including a large sample size and additional information like locations.

MRP polls first ask a large representative sample of people how they will vote. They then use that information of how different groups say they will vote combined with information about the sorts of people who live in different constituencies. This allows the pollster to estimate how people will vote in each constituency across the country – even when they may have surveyed just a few people, or even none, in some places.

This can then be broken down into smaller groups to see how voters in different areas say they plan to vote. Rather than making more generalised assumptions that everyone behaves the same way in different constituencies, it takes into account the fact that every constituency is its own race and local issues and trends may be at play.

What MRP can’t do is account for very specific local factors – such as a hospital or large employer closing down in a constituency, or a scandal relating to a particular candidate.

It still involves a lot of assumptions and estimates – and some races are too close to call with any level of certainty. It also only gives a snapshot of people’s opinions, and a lot can change over the course of an election campaign. However, it does give us a more nuanced idea about what the general election result could be than other more generic polls.

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The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

UK

UK officially recognises Palestine as a state

Published

3 hours ago

September 21, 2025

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UK officially recognises Palestine as a state

Sir Keir Starmer has announced the UK has officially recognised Palestine as a state.

“Today, to revive the hope of peace for the Palestinians and Israelis, and a two state solution, the United Kingdom formally recognises the State of Palestine,” the prime minister said on X, alongside a longer video statement.

“In the face of the growing horror in the Middle East, we are acting to keep alive the possibility of peace and a two-state solution.

“That means a safe and secure Israel alongside a viable Palestinian state. At the moment, we have neither.”

Follow latest: Palestine recognised as a state by three countries

Canada and Australia also officially recognised Palestinian statehood on Sunday, ahead of a conference of the UN General Assembly in New York this week.

It is a significant moment in the history of Britain’s involvement in the region, and comes as the death toll from the Israeli war on Gaza continues to rise and conditions for the people trapped become even more desperate.

Sir Keir said in July that the government would recognise Palestine unless Israel met certain conditions, including agreeing to a ceasefire and allowing the UN to restart the supply of aid.

In recognising Palestine as a state, the UK does so based on 1967 borders to be finalised as part of future negotiations. It would be led by a “reformed Palestinian Authority”.

The UK also acknowledges “all legal rights and obligations of statehood” for Palestine.

An updated map on the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office website now has the West Bank and Gaza labelled as ‘Palestine’ rather than the ‘Occupied Palestinian Territories’. This change has been rolled out across the website.

Sir Keir calls on Hamas to release the hostages

The prime minister repeated his calls for the the Israeli hostages – held in captivity since the brutal attacks on Israel on 7 October, 2023 – to be released by Hamas.

“I have met British families of the hostages. I see the torture that they endure each and every day. Pain that strikes deep in people’s hearts across Israel and here in the United Kingdom.

“The hostages must be released immediately and we will keep fighting to bring them home.”

Sir Keir was also clear to emphasise that recognition of Palestine was “not a reward for Hamas”, saying that the terror group “can have no future, no role in government, no role in security” in a future state.

“I have directed work to sanction other Hamas figures in the coming weeks,” he added.

Starmer calls on Israel to end Gaza offensives

Sir Keir also repeated his criticism of Israel, which for nearly two years has waged a brutal war on the densely-populated Gaza Strip.

“The Israeli government’s relentless and increasing bombardment of Gaza, the offensive of recent weeks, the starvation and devastation are utterly intolerable.”

The death toll in Gaza since the IDF launched its offensive following the 7 October attacks has now risen above 65,000 people, according to Hamas-run health authorities.

“This death and destruction horrifies all of us. It must end,” he said.

British people ‘desperately want to see’ peace

Sir Keir also said: “Ordinary people, Israeli and Palestinian, deserve to live in peace. To try to rebuild their lives free from violence and suffering.

“That’s what the British people desperately want to see.”

But he warned that the possibility of a Palestinian state was in danger of vanishing forever.

“With the actions of Hamas, the Israeli government escalating the conflict, and settlement building being accelerated in the West Bank, the hope of a two-state solution is fading, but we cannot let that light go out.

“That is why we are building consensus with leaders in the region and beyond, around our framework for peace.”

Sir Keir said this is a “practical plan” to bring people together behind a “common vision” that moves from a ceasefire in Gaza to negotiations on a two-state solution.

“We will keep driving this forward,” he pledged.

UK

What will the UK’s recognition of Palestine achieve?

Published

6 hours ago

September 21, 2025

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What will the UK's recognition of Palestine achieve?

Today, Sir Keir Starmer will deliver on his pledge to recognise a Palestinian state – after setting out a series of conditions in July which there was little prospect Israel could meet, including agreeing a ceasefire with Hamas.

The prime minister will say it recognises the “inalienable right” of the Palestinian people and what he feels is a moral responsibility to keep a two-state solution alive, amid the devastation of the war and concern about settlement expansion in the West Bank.

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This will be formally put forward by the British government at a conference of the UN General Assembly in New York this week, after a diplomatic push led by Emmanuel Macron. Canada and Australia are also expected to recognise it, although may call for Hamas to disarm.

But Labour has always said it’s a move they would make as part of a peace process, which looks further away than ever.

What does it mean?

The move has been heavily criticised and leaves a number of questions not only about what it will achieve – but about whether it will have the opposite effect on the conflict.

David Lammy as foreign secretary conceded when the pledge was announced that “it will not change the position on the ground” which can only come through negotiations.

After all, 147 of the 193 member states of the United Nations recognise it already. Palestine has permanent observer status at the UN – speaking rights, but not voting rights – where it’s represented by the Palestinian Authority. Any move to full status would have to be agreed by the Security Council where the US has a veto.

Sir Keir has made clear he doesn’t accept Hamas – which he calls a “brutal terrorist organisation” – as a government in Gaza. The borders of such a state, wrangled over for decades during multiple rounds of negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, are also not agreed.

Criticism

Recognition is opposed by the Trump administration, as the US president made clear in London last week. US secretary of state Marco Rubio has said it would “embolden Hamas” and be symbolic only.

In Britain there is cynicism too. Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, has accused the prime minister of a “desperate and insincere attempt to placate his backbenchers”. He heads to the party’s conference in Liverpool next week with a further slump in his approval ratings to -42%, around where Rishi Sunak’s was after his D-Day blunder.

Over a third of Labour MPs wrote to Sir Keir before his pledge in July, calling for recognition of a Palestinian state. It is not clear this symbolic move will placate them, with some already calling for tougher measures including on arms sales to Israel – especially after a UN Commission of Inquiry claimed Israel had committed genocide.

Other Labour MPs oppose the recognition move. The Labour Friends of Israel group has said: “It is important to recognise that Israel is not the only party to this conflict… Hamas could end this conflict tomorrow by releasing the hostages and laying down its arms.”

The move is also opposed by the families of the hostages in Gaza, of which 20 are believed to be alive – for not imposing their release as a condition on Hamas.

Ilay David, the brother of Evyatar David, who recently appeared emaciated in a Hamas video, said: “We want to meet with Starmer but he refuses to meet with us… Giving this recognition is like saying to Hamas: ‘It is OK you can keep starving the hostages, you can keep using them as human shields’. This kind of recognition gives Hamas power to be stubborn in negotiations. That is the last thing we need right now.”

Sir Ephraim Mirvis, the UK’s Chief Rabbi has said the “unconditional” recognition of the state “is not contingent upon a functioning or democratic Palestinian government, nor even upon the most basic commitment to a peaceful future”.

What happens next?

Sir Keir met 89-year-old Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, in London this month and they agreed Hamas should not be involved in the governance of Gaza.

Efforts to set up a transitional government have been discussed between the US and Gulf states. But Mike Huckabee, the US ambassador to Israel, said last week there was nothing “ready for signature”.

The UK government is expected to announce further sanctions on Hamas figures this week. But the Israeli government has already responded with fury to the prospect of recognition and it’s reported that retaliation could include further annexations in the West Bank.

The UK government sees this as an important diplomatic move with allies, when nothing else is moving the dial. But it can only be made once, and even supporters in government acknowledge that on the ground in Gaza it won’t immediately change very much.

UK

British fighter jets defend Polish skies after Russian drone incursion

Published

9 hours ago

September 21, 2025

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British fighter jets defend Polish skies after Russian drone incursion

Two British fighter jets have flown their first defence mission over Poland after a Russian drone incursion into the country’s skies.

The flight was part of NATO‘s operation “Eastern Sentry”, launched to bolster Europe’s eastern flank after Poland shot down Russian drones earlier this month.

A Russian drone was intercepted flying over Romania days later, while three Russian jets entered Estonian airspace without permission for 12 minutes on Friday.

The three incursions into NATO airspace fuelled concerns about the potential expansion of Russia‘s three-year war in Ukraine and have been seen as an attempt by Moscow to test the military alliance’s response.

The incident over Poland prompted its prime minister, Donald Tusk, to warn that his country was the closest to “open conflict” it had been since the Second World War, while the UK announced it would provide Warsaw with extra air cover.

Two RAF Typhoons, supported by an RAF Voyager air-to-air refuelling plane, took off from RAF Coningsby, in Lincolnshire, on Friday night to defend Poland’s skies before returning safely early on Saturday morning.

Defence Secretary John Healey said the mission sends a clear signal that “NATO airspace will be defended”.

“I’m proud of the outstanding British pilots and air crew who took part in this successful operation to defend our allies from reckless Russian aggression.”

He said the mission was “especially poignant” coming as the UK marks the 85th anniversary of the Battle of Britain – when Polish pilots came to the aid of the UK – this weekend.

The head of the RAF, Air Chief Marshal Harv Smyth, said: “This sortie marks the RAF’s first operational mission on Eastern Sentry, reinforcing the UK’s steadfast commitment to NATO and its allies.

“We remain agile, integrated, and ready to project airpower at range.”