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10 months ago

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If you want a good idea of what matters to each party – its deepest desires, its darkest fears – look at where it’s spending money. 

What it shows is a story of Labour spending big and spending everywhere, as it pursues a plausible supermajority, while the Conservatives retreat to fight for some of their heartland constituencies, and spend much less.

It shows the current state of play for all parties across the country. The map shows which is the biggest spender in each constituency – which parts of the country they’re fighting to win, or not to lose.

The map was created by Who Targets Me (WTM), which tracks digital political advertising and has partnered with Sky News as part of our online campaign team.

“Our map of advertising activity shows where the parties have targeted their Facebook and Instagram ads in the last week,” Sam Jeffers, executive director of WTM, says.

“In the same way careful observers track the seats party leaders visit during the campaign, the list of pages that are buying ads in each seat, helps to show whether parties think they can win there.”

We can break the map down for each party too.

You can see the Lib Dems spending big on the ‘”A30 corridor in the South West”, going for Conservative seats.

Both the Conservatives and the Greens are in a big spending battle in South Wales and the West Country.

Reform is targeting constituencies around southern Lincolnshire. And we can understand why parties are spending where they are if we compare to the predicted results from the latest YouGov MRP poll for Sky News.

We can show you how the digital war has been fought over the last few weeks – the ebb and the flow, if there has been one, between Labour and Conservative.

Labour first. They have spent by far the most this election: more than £2.7m since the start.

This is how their online campaign has spread geographically over the past six weeks.

“The map shows the scale of Labour’s ambition, with them running ads across large swathes of the country, and outcompeting both the Conservatives and Reform in England and Wales, as well as the SNP across the central belt of Scotland,” says Mr Jeffers.

Compare that to the Conservatives, who have spent only just over £1m on Meta and Google ads. And it has been dwindling: as the days go by, they’re spending less money than their competitors in big swathes of the country.

Back to the big picture. Comparing the digital spend map to the latest YouGov MRP poll for Sky News reveals some interesting battlegrounds.

The Greens spent the most of any party in any constituency up to 17 June but the MRP suggests this will be a likely Conservative hold – with the Greens coming in second. They also occupy the next two slots in the spending rankings – Bristol Central and Brighton Pavilion – and the likelihood there is that they will win.

The next highest individual constituency spender is Reform, in Great Yarmouth – which the MRP predicts Reform will win.

But in Boston and Skegness, Reform’s next highest spend, the YouGov MRP poll has a Conservative win.

But look at the Labour spend in general. As discussed, it is the biggest and most geographically widespread. And compare it to the MRP and you can see why: lots of constituencies are red, but lighter shades.

They’re toss ups or marginal calls, with only the tiniest of margins between the parties. Hence why Labour is spending so big and in so many places.

Who Targets Me continually updates the map: Click here to view.

Mr Jeffers says that “it will be a fascinating tool for the final two weeks of the campaign, showing the parties’ strategies in near real time, as they home in on the seats they hope to win or hold on 4 July.

What is an MRP poll?

You might come across the term MRP quite a lot in the coming weeks as we head towards the general election on 4 July.

An MRP poll – which stands for multilevel regression and post-stratification – is a type of poll that gets pundits excited because it draws from large amounts of data, including a large sample size and additional information like locations.

MRP polls first ask a large representative sample of people how they will vote. They then use that information of how different groups say they will vote combined with information about the sorts of people who live in different constituencies. This allows the pollster to estimate how people will vote in each constituency across the country – even when they may have surveyed just a few people, or even none, in some places.

This can then be broken down into smaller groups to see how voters in different areas say they plan to vote. Rather than making more generalised assumptions that everyone behaves the same way in different constituencies, it takes into account the fact that every constituency is its own race and local issues and trends may be at play.

What MRP can’t do is account for very specific local factors – such as a hospital or large employer closing down in a constituency, or a scandal relating to a particular candidate.

It still involves a lot of assumptions and estimates – and some races are too close to call with any level of certainty. It also only gives a snapshot of people’s opinions, and a lot can change over the course of an election campaign. However, it does give us a more nuanced idea about what the general election result could be than other more generic polls.

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The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Liverpool win Premier League title to equal Man Utd’s record

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8 hours ago

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April 27, 2025

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Liverpool win Premier League title to equal Man Utd's record

Liverpool have won the Premier League title after a 5-1 victory over Tottenham at Anfield.

Arne Slot’s men did it in impressive style, turning over Spurs in a convincing win.

It was a rocky start for the Reds after Dominic Solanke put the north London side ahead.

However, fortunes quickly changed in the first half as Liverpool scored three times without a response.

Captain Virgil van Dijk (centre) celebrates. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Captain Virgil van Dijk (centre) celebrates. Pic: Reuters

Salah on his knees in celebration after the final whistle. Pic: AP
Image:
Salah on his knees in celebration after the final whistle. Pic: AP

Liverpool's Harvey Elliott (below) and Jarell Quansah celebrate after full-time. Pic: PA
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Liverpool’s Harvey Elliott (below) and Jarell Quansah celebrate after full-time. Pic: PA

Slot cheers after the full-time whistle. Pic: AP
Image:
Slot cheers after the full-time whistle. Pic: AP

In the second half, it took until the 63rd minute for Mohamed Salah to make it 4-1 before a fifth followed.

The Reds have won the title in manager Arne Slot’s first season in charge, and move level with fierce rivals Manchester United on 20 league championships.

But it makes them arguably the most successful English club ever as they have won more European Cup or Champions League titles.

Liverpool captain Virgil van Dijk told Sky Sports after the final whistle: “It’s special and it’s something that we don’t take for granted. It’s amazing.

“A lot of emotions before the game, during the whole week, but we got the job done and we (are) truly deserved champions of England. (Liverpool is) the most beautiful club in the world and I think we deserve all of this. Let’s enjoy the next couple of weeks and let it sink in.”

Liverpool's Kostas Tsimikas poses with a Premier League trophy cut out. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Liverpool’s Kostas Tsimikas poses with a Premier League trophy cut out. Pic: Reuters

Manager Arne Slot and his team after the final whistle. Pic: AP
Image:
Manager Arne Slot and his team after the final whistle. Pic: AP

Slot took over last summer from Jurgen Klopp, who guided them to their previous and maiden Premier League title triumph in 2020, when the COVID-19 lockdown saw matches played behind closed doors.

He is the first Dutch manager to win the Premier League and the fifth man to do so in a debut campaign after Jose Mourinho, Carlo Ancelotti, Manuel Pellegrini, and Antonio Conte.

Speaking to Sky Sports he said: “They [the players] did an outstanding job today. The main job was to win. Everyone said we had got it already. But we had to make sure and we got over the line.”

Several players, including Alisson Becker, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Virgil van Dijk, and Mohamed Salah, played leading roles in both the 2025 and 2020 campaigns.

Van Dijk and Salah recently signed new contracts extending their careers at the club.

Mohamed Salah takes a selfie with fans after scouring the fourth Liverpool goal. Pic: AP
Image:
Mohamed Salah takes a selfie with fans after scouring the fourth Liverpool goal. Pic: AP

Fans at Anfield during the game. Pic: AP
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Fans at Anfield during the game. Pic: AP

Fans in the stands at Anfield before full-time. Pic: Reuters
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Fans in the stands at Anfield before full-time. Pic: Reuters

Liverpool will have to wait until the final game of the season – at home to Crystal Palace on 25 May – to be presented with the Premier League trophy.

It will be the first time the club’s fans will have seen their side lift the top-flight title in person since 1990.

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Protesters throw powder on Tower Bridge during London Marathon

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14 hours ago

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April 27, 2025

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Protesters throw powder on Tower Bridge during London Marathon

Two pro-Palestinian demonstrators have thrown red powder on Tower Bridge – just moments before leading runners in the London Marathon went past.

The protesters were arrested on suspicion of causing a public nuisance and remain in custody, said the Metropolitan Police.

A video shared by Youth Demand, which is calling for a trade embargo on Israel, shows two people jumping over a barrier that separates spectators from the race course.

The pair, wearing t-shirts that say “Youth Demand: Stop Arming Israel”, are then seen standing in the middle of the road on the bridge.

Pic: LNP
Image:
Pic: LNP

They throw red powder in the air as an official marathon car goes past displaying the race time.

A motorbike with a cameraman on board continues along the route, while a second motorbike stops and one of the riders gets off and pushes the pair out of the way, just before the men’s elite runners pass.

Several police officers then jump over the barrier and detain the pair, the footage shows.

More on London Marathon 2025

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There appeared to be no impact on the marathon.

More than 56,000 participants were expected to take part in the 26.2-mile race through the capital.

Sabastian Sawe of Kenya won the men’s elite race in a time of two hours, two minutes and 27 seconds, while Ethiopia’s Tigst Assefa shattered the women’s-only world record in two hours, 15 minutes and 50 seconds.

Assefa beat the previous best of two hours, 16 minutes and 16 seconds set last year in London by Kenyan Peres Jepchirchir.

Read more:
Sky’s Beth Rigby running marathon in honour of ‘dearest friend’
Badenoch does not rule out local coalitions with Reform

Pic: LNP
Image:
Pic: LNP

The Metropolitan Police said in a statement: “At around 10.38am, two protesters from Youth Demand jumped over barriers at Tower Bridge and threw red paint on to the road.

“Marathon event staff intervened to remove the protesters from the path of the men’s elite race which was able to pass unobstructed.”

The force added that they were “quickly supported by police officers who arrested the protesters on suspicion of causing a public nuisance”.

The Met said the paint “appeared to be chalk-based” and was not expected to “present a hazard to runners yet to pass this point”.

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Kemi Badenoch does not rule out local coalitions with Reform after next week’s council elections

Published

18 hours ago

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April 27, 2025

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Kemi Badenoch does not rule out local coalitions with Reform after next week's council elections

Kemi Badenoch has not ruled out forming coalitions at a local level with Reform after the council elections next week.

Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, the Conservative leader did however categorically rule out a pact with Nigel Farage’s party on a national level.

“I am not going into any coalition with Nigel Farage… read my lips,” she said.

However, she did not deny that deals could be struck with Reform at a local level, arguing that some councils might be under no overall control and in that case, “you have to do what is right for your local area”.

“You look at the moment, we are in coalition with Liberal Democrats, with independents,” she said. “We’ve been in coalition with Labour before at local government level.

“They [councillors] have to look at who the people are that they’re going into coalition with and see how they can deliver for local people.”

She added: “What I don’t want to hear is talks of stitch-ups or people planning things before the results are out. They have to do what is right for their communities.”

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A total of 23 councils are up for grabs when voters go to the polls on Thursday 1 May – mostly in places that were once deemed Tory shires, until last year’s general election.

It includes 14 county councils, all but two of which have been Conservative-controlled, as well as eight unitary authorities, all but one of which are Tory.

Ms Badenoch has set expectations low for the Tories, suggesting they could lose all the councils they are contesting.

The last time this set of councils were up for election was in 2021, when the Conservative Party was led by Boris Johnson who was riding high from the COVID vaccine bounce.

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.

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