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If you want a good idea of what matters to each party – its deepest desires, its darkest fears – look at where it’s spending money. 

What it shows is a story of Labour spending big and spending everywhere, as it pursues a plausible supermajority, while the Conservatives retreat to fight for some of their heartland constituencies, and spend much less.

It shows the current state of play for all parties across the country. The map shows which is the biggest spender in each constituency – which parts of the country they’re fighting to win, or not to lose.

The map was created by Who Targets Me (WTM), which tracks digital political advertising and has partnered with Sky News as part of our online campaign team.

“Our map of advertising activity shows where the parties have targeted their Facebook and Instagram ads in the last week,” Sam Jeffers, executive director of WTM, says.

“In the same way careful observers track the seats party leaders visit during the campaign, the list of pages that are buying ads in each seat, helps to show whether parties think they can win there.”

We can break the map down for each party too.

You can see the Lib Dems spending big on the ‘”A30 corridor in the South West”, going for Conservative seats.

Both the Conservatives and the Greens are in a big spending battle in South Wales and the West Country.

Reform is targeting constituencies around southern Lincolnshire. And we can understand why parties are spending where they are if we compare to the predicted results from the latest YouGov MRP poll for Sky News.

We can show you how the digital war has been fought over the last few weeks – the ebb and the flow, if there has been one, between Labour and Conservative.

Labour first. They have spent by far the most this election: more than £2.7m since the start.

This is how their online campaign has spread geographically over the past six weeks.

“The map shows the scale of Labour’s ambition, with them running ads across large swathes of the country, and outcompeting both the Conservatives and Reform in England and Wales, as well as the SNP across the central belt of Scotland,” says Mr Jeffers.

Compare that to the Conservatives, who have spent only just over £1m on Meta and Google ads. And it has been dwindling: as the days go by, they’re spending less money than their competitors in big swathes of the country.

Back to the big picture. Comparing the digital spend map to the latest YouGov MRP poll for Sky News reveals some interesting battlegrounds.

The Greens spent the most of any party in any constituency up to 17 June but the MRP suggests this will be a likely Conservative hold – with the Greens coming in second. They also occupy the next two slots in the spending rankings – Bristol Central and Brighton Pavilion – and the likelihood there is that they will win.

The next highest individual constituency spender is Reform, in Great Yarmouth – which the MRP predicts Reform will win.

But in Boston and Skegness, Reform’s next highest spend, the YouGov MRP poll has a Conservative win.

But look at the Labour spend in general. As discussed, it is the biggest and most geographically widespread. And compare it to the MRP and you can see why: lots of constituencies are red, but lighter shades.

They’re toss ups or marginal calls, with only the tiniest of margins between the parties. Hence why Labour is spending so big and in so many places.

Who Targets Me continually updates the map: Click here to view.

Mr Jeffers says that “it will be a fascinating tool for the final two weeks of the campaign, showing the parties’ strategies in near real time, as they home in on the seats they hope to win or hold on 4 July.

What is an MRP poll?

You might come across the term MRP quite a lot in the coming weeks as we head towards the general election on 4 July.

An MRP poll – which stands for multilevel regression and post-stratification – is a type of poll that gets pundits excited because it draws from large amounts of data, including a large sample size and additional information like locations.

MRP polls first ask a large representative sample of people how they will vote. They then use that information of how different groups say they will vote combined with information about the sorts of people who live in different constituencies. This allows the pollster to estimate how people will vote in each constituency across the country – even when they may have surveyed just a few people, or even none, in some places.

This can then be broken down into smaller groups to see how voters in different areas say they plan to vote. Rather than making more generalised assumptions that everyone behaves the same way in different constituencies, it takes into account the fact that every constituency is its own race and local issues and trends may be at play.

What MRP can’t do is account for very specific local factors – such as a hospital or large employer closing down in a constituency, or a scandal relating to a particular candidate.

It still involves a lot of assumptions and estimates – and some races are too close to call with any level of certainty. It also only gives a snapshot of people’s opinions, and a lot can change over the course of an election campaign. However, it does give us a more nuanced idea about what the general election result could be than other more generic polls.

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The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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COVID-19 report goes a long way to answering inquiry’s critics

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COVID-19 report goes a long way to answering inquiry's critics

This scathing report goes a long way to answer the UK COVID-19 Inquiry’s critics, who have consistently attacked it as a costly waste of time.

They tried to undermine inquiry chair Lady Hallet’s attempt to understand what went wrong and how we might do better, and portray it as a lame exercise that would achieve very little.

Well, we now know that Boris Johnson’s “toxic and chaotic” government could well have prevented at least 23,000 deaths had they acted sooner and with greater urgency.

Follow latest: All four UK governments ‘failed to appreciate’ scale of COVID pandemic threat

File Pic: PA
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File Pic: PA

The response was “too little, too late”. And nobody in power truly understood the scale of the emerging threat or the urgency of the response it required.

The grieving families who lost loved ones in the pandemic want answers. They want names. And they want accountability.

But that is beyond the remit of this inquiry.

More on Boris Johnson

Read more:
‘Toxic and chaotic culture’ at centre of UK government during the pandemic
A timeline of the UK’s response to the pandemic

Everything you need to know about the COVID inquiry

The publication of the report into Module 2 of the inquiry will bring them no comfort, it may even cause them more distress.

But it will bring them closer to understanding why the UK’s response to this unprecedented health crisis was so poor.

Copies of the UK COVID-19 Inquiry's findings into decisions made by former prime minister Boris Johnson and his advisers. Pic: PA
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Copies of the UK COVID-19 Inquiry’s findings into decisions made by former prime minister Boris Johnson and his advisers. Pic: PA

We can easily identify the “advisers and ministers whose alleged rule breaking caused huge distress and undermined public confidence”.

And we know who was in charge of the Department of Health and Social Care as it misled the public by giving the impression that the UK was well prepared for the pandemic when it clearly was not.

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All four UK governments ‘failed to appreciate’ scale of COVID pandemic threat – inquiry finds

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All four UK governments 'failed to appreciate' scale of COVID pandemic threat - inquiry finds

All four UK governments failed to appreciate the scale of the threat posed by COVID-19 or the urgency of the response the pandemic required, a damning report published on Thursday has claimed.

Baroness Heather Hallett, the chair of the inquiry, described the response to the pandemic as “too little, too late”.

Tens of thousands of lives could have been saved during the first wave of COVID-19 had a mandatory lockdown been introduced a week earlier, the inquiry also found.

Noting how a “lack of urgency” made a mandatory lockdown “inevitable”, the report references modelling data to claim there could have been 23,000 fewer deaths during the first wave in England had it been introduced a week earlier.

The UK government first introduced advisory restrictions on 16 March 2020, including self-isolation, household quarantine and social distancing.

Had these measures been introduced sooner, the report states, the mandatory lockdown which followed from 23 March might not have been necessary at all.

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All four UK govts ‘failed to appreciate’ scale of pandemic

COVID-19 first emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of 2019, and as it developed into a worldwide pandemic, the UK went in and out of unprecedented lockdown measures for two years starting from March 2020.

More on Covid Inquiry

Lady Hallett admitted in her summary that politicians in the government and devolved administrations were forced to make decisions where “there was often no right answer or good outcome”.

“Nonetheless,” she said, “I can summarise my findings of the response as ‘too little, too late'”.

Report goes long way to answer inquiry’s critics

This scathing report goes a long way to answer the Covid 19 Inquiry’s critics who have consistently attacked it as a costly waste of time.

They tried to undermine Lady Hallet’s attempt to understand what went wrong and how we might do better as a lame exercise that would achieve very little.

Well, we now know that Boris Johnson’s “toxic and chaotic” government could well have prevented at least 23,000 deaths had they acted sooner and with greater urgency.

The response was “too little, too late”. And that nobody in power truly understood the scale of the emerging threat or the urgency of the response it required.

The grieving families who lost loved ones in the pandemic want answers. They want names. And they want accountability.

But that is beyond the remit of this Inquiry.

The publication of the report into Module 2 will bring them no comfort, it may even cause them more distress but it will bring them closer to understanding why the UK’s response to this unprecedented health crisis was so poor.

And we can easily identify the “advisors and ministers whose alleged rule breaking caused huge distress and undermined public confidence”.

Or who was in charge of the Department of Health and Social Care, as it misled the public by giving the impression that the UK was well prepared for the pandemic when it clearly was not.

‘Toxic culture’ at the heart of UK government

The report said there was “a toxic and chaotic culture” at the heart of the UK government during the pandemic.

The inquiry heard evidence about the “destabilising behaviour of a number of individuals” – including former No 10 adviser Dominic Cummings.

It said that by failing to tackle this chaotic culture – “and, at times, actively encouraging it” – former PM Boris Johnson “reinforced a culture in which the loudest voices prevailed and the views of other colleagues, particularly women, often went ignored, to the detriment of good decision-making”.

‘Misleading assurances’

The inquiry found all four governments in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland failed to understand the urgency of response the pandemic demanded in the early part of 2020.

The report reads: “This was compounded, in part, by misleading assurances from the Department of Health and Social Care and the widely held view that the UK was well prepared for a pandemic.”

The report notes how the UK government took a “high risk” when it significantly eased restrictions in England in July 2020 – “despite scientific advisers’ concerns about the public health risks of doing so”.

Lady Hallett has made 19 key recommendations which, if followed, she believes will better protect the UK in any future pandemic and improve decision-making in a crisis.

Repeated failings ‘inexcusable’

In a statement following the publication of Thursday’s report, Lady Hallett said there was a “serious failure” by all four governments to appreciate the level of “risk and calamity” facing the UK.

She said: “The tempo of the response should have been increased. It was not. February 2020 was a lost month.”

Read more:
A timeline of the UK’s response to the pandemic

Lady Hallett said the inquiry does not advocate for national lockdowns, which she said should have been avoided if at all possible.

She said: “But to avoid them, governments must take timely and decisive action to control a spreading virus. The four governments of the UK did not.”

Lady Hallett said none of the governments were adequately prepared for the challenges and risks that a lockdown presented, and that many of the same failings were repeated later in 2020, which she said was “inexcusable”.

She added: “Each government had ample warning that the prevalence of the virus was increasing and would continue to do so into the winter months. Yet again, there was a failure to take timely and effective action.”

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Fresh weather warnings issued as parts of UK threatened with blizzard conditions

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Fresh weather warnings issued as parts of UK threatened with blizzard conditions

Fresh yellow weather warnings for ice have been issued for many areas of the UK, as some areas are threatened with blizzard conditions on Thursday.

An amber warning for snow – covering northeast England, including Scarborough, Whitby and parts south of Middlesbrough – is in force until 9pm on Thursday.

UK weather latest: Blizzard warning for amber area

The Met Office said there could be “significant snow accumulations” over the North York Moors and parts of the Yorkshire Wolds with up to 25cm (10ins) on hills above 100m (330ft).

“Gusty winds, giving occasional blizzard conditions, and perhaps a few lightning strikes, may accompany some of the showers, posing as additional hazards,” the warning added.

Some A-roads in North Yorkshire were reported to be “gridlocked”, according to Shingi Mararike, Sky News’ North of England correspondent, but he added gritters are out to deal with the bad weather.

A car overturns on the A19 near Sunderland. Pic: PA
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A car overturns on the A19 near Sunderland. Pic: PA

The Glenshane Pass in County Londonderry has been coated in snow. Pic: PA
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The Glenshane Pass in County Londonderry has been coated in snow. Pic: PA

Snowy conditions near Skipsea in the the East Riding of Yorkshire. Pic: PA
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Snowy conditions near Skipsea in the the East Riding of Yorkshire. Pic: PA

Snow ploughs have been hard at work on the North York Moors and a thick coat of snow is covering the A169 between Pickering and Whitby.

More on Uk Weather

Dozens of schools have been closed in North Yorkshire and Scotland.

Amber warning for snow in parts of northeast England and south of Middlesbrough until 9pm on Thursday. Pic: Met Office
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Amber warning for snow in parts of northeast England and south of Middlesbrough until 9pm on Thursday. Pic: Met Office

A number of yellow warnings are also in force for snow and/or ice across large parts of Britain.

In many of the warnings issued by the Met Office, there are concerns that where “showers persist and/or snow partially thaws and then refreezes overnight, this will bring a risk of ice”.

Weather warnings in the UK for snow and ice across various regions on Thursday (left) and ice on Friday (right). Pic: Met Office
Image:
Weather warnings in the UK for snow and ice across various regions on Thursday (left) and ice on Friday (right). Pic: Met Office

Jo Wheeler, Sky’s weather presenter, said clear skies will allow temperatures to tumble again as Thursday night approaches, “with an early and severe frost expected, and the associated risk of icy stretches on untreated roads and pavements”.

Coldest night so far

Overnight Wednesday into Thursday was the coldest of the season so far, according to the Met Office.

Temperatures dropped as low as -6.6C (20F) in Benson, Oxfordshire. There were two -6.4C (20F) temperatures recorded in Wales (in Sennybrigde) and in Scotland (Dundreggan).

While in Northern Ireland it fell to -2.8C (27F) in Altnahinch Filters.

Cold health alerts in force

As well as the one amber weather warning covering parts of the UK, there are two amber health alerts in place in three areas of England from the UK’s Health Security Agency.

An amber health alert is designed to prepare health services, including for the potential for a rise in deaths among the over-65s and people with health conditions.

The alerts are in effect in North East and North West England, along with the Yorkshire and the Humber region until 8am on 22 November.

Yellow cold-health alerts are in place for the rest of England and also expire at the same point.

Walk like a penguin

NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde (NHSGGC) is recommending that people should walk like penguins to avoid dangerous slips and trips on icy surfaces.

The technique, which went viral in previous winters, is back for 2025 as part of the health board’s winter campaign.

Laura Halcrow, falls prevention lead at NHSGGC, said: “It might look funny, but waddling really works. A slip on ice can cause painful injuries and even hospital stays, especially for older people.”

Turning wet and windy

Sky’s weather presenter, Jo Wheeler, adds that the forecast is set to change this weekend.

“We’ll trade the cold sunshine and wintry showers for wet and windy conditions with rain turning heavy as it crosses the country on Saturday.”

“The British weather, fickle as always, looks like delivering a brief change to this milder westerly flow followed by an equally quick change back to a chilly northerly flow.”

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