It shows the current state of play for all parties across the country. The map shows which is the biggest spender in each constituency – which parts of the country they’re fighting to win, or not to lose.
The map was created by Who Targets Me (WTM), which tracks digital political advertising and has partnered with Sky News as part of our online campaign team.
“Our map of advertising activity shows where the parties have targeted their Facebook and Instagram ads in the last week,” Sam Jeffers, executive director of WTM, says.
“In the same way careful observers track the seats party leaders visit during the campaign, the list of pages that are buying ads in each seat, helps to show whether parties think they can win there.”
We can break the map down for each party too.
You can see the Lib Dems spending big on the ‘”A30 corridor in the South West”, going for Conservative seats.
Both the Conservatives and the Greens are in a big spending battle in South Wales and the West Country.
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Reform is targeting constituencies around southern Lincolnshire. And we can understand why parties are spending where they are if we compare to the predicted results from the latest YouGov MRP poll for Sky News.
We can show you how the digital war has been fought over the last few weeks – the ebb and the flow, if there has been one, between Labour and Conservative.
Labour first. They have spent by far the most this election: more than £2.7m since the start.
This is how their online campaign has spread geographically over the past six weeks.
“The map shows the scale of Labour’s ambition, with them running ads across large swathes of the country, and outcompeting both the Conservatives and Reform in England and Wales, as well as the SNP across the central belt of Scotland,” says Mr Jeffers.
Compare that to the Conservatives, who have spent only just over £1m on Meta and Google ads. And it has been dwindling: as the days go by, they’re spending less money than their competitors in big swathes of the country.
Back to the big picture. Comparing the digital spend map to the latest YouGov MRP poll for Sky News reveals some interesting battlegrounds.
The Greens spent the most of any party in any constituency up to 17 June but the MRP suggests this will be a likely Conservative hold – with the Greens coming in second. They also occupy the next two slots in the spending rankings – Bristol Central and Brighton Pavilion – and the likelihood there is that they will win.
The next highest individual constituency spender is Reform, in Great Yarmouth – which the MRP predicts Reform will win.
But in Boston and Skegness, Reform’s next highest spend, the YouGov MRP poll has a Conservative win.
But look at the Labour spend in general. As discussed, it is the biggest and most geographically widespread. And compare it to the MRP and you can see why: lots of constituencies are red, but lighter shades.
They’re toss ups or marginal calls, with only the tiniest of margins between the parties. Hence why Labour is spending so big and in so many places.
Mr Jeffers says that “it will be a fascinating tool for the final two weeks of the campaign, showing the parties’ strategies in near real time, as they home in on the seats they hope to win or hold on 4 July.
What is an MRP poll?
You might come across the term MRP quite a lot in the coming weeks as we head towards the general election on 4 July.
An MRP poll – which stands for multilevel regression and post-stratification – is a type of poll that gets pundits excited because it draws from large amounts of data, including a large sample size and additional information like locations.
MRP polls first ask a large representative sample of people how they will vote. They then use that information of how different groups say they will vote combined with information about the sorts of people who live in different constituencies. This allows the pollster to estimate how people will vote in each constituency across the country – even when they may have surveyed just a few people, or even none, in some places.
This can then be broken down into smaller groups to see how voters in different areas say they plan to vote. Rather than making more generalised assumptions that everyone behaves the same way in different constituencies, it takes into account the fact that every constituency is its own race and local issues and trends may be at play.
What MRP can’t do is account for very specific local factors – such as a hospital or large employer closing down in a constituency, or a scandal relating to a particular candidate.
It still involves a lot of assumptions and estimates – and some races are too close to call with any level of certainty. It also only gives a snapshot of people’s opinions, and a lot can change over the course of an election campaign. However, it does give us a more nuanced idea about what the general election result could be than other more generic polls.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
The Met Office has put yellow weather warnings over snow and ice in place from this afternoon covering much of the UK.
It had a number of yellow warnings in place on Thursday across the country, but most were initially set to expire by 11am, with only a snow and ice alert in Scotland remaining until midnight.
But it has now updated its map to show yellow ice warnings for much of the Midlands, North West England, Eastern England, Wales and Northern Ireland from 4pm on Thursday until 10am on Friday, while the snow and ice warning for Scotland has been extended to 10am on Friday.
A separate yellow warning for ice is in force from 3am on Friday until 11am, covering South West England and parts of South Wales.
It comes as large swathes of the country deal with disruption caused by the freezing weather, with temperatures expected to fall as low as -16C on Thursday night both in the northeast of England and Scotland, the Met Office has said.
Manchester Airport has warned passengers of delays after temporarily closing its runways due to “significant levels of snow”.
In a statement on Thursday morning, the airport said: “Our runways are temporarily closed due to significant levels of snow, as our teams work hard to clear them as quickly as possible.”
The airport announced its runways had reopened at 10am, but warned “as a result of the earlier closure, some departures and arrivals may still experience delays”.
“The safety of our passengers remains our top priority. Thank you for your understanding and patience,” it added.
The A30 in Cornwall was closed westbound between the A3047 junctions Avers and Tolvaddon on Thursday morning following a multiple vehicle collision, according to National Highways, after an amber warning for snow and ice was in place yesterday.
It said at 8.45am that emergency services were at the scene while traffic built on the roads.
Devon and Cornwall Police and Devon County Council Highways had earlier warned of roads closing and motorists being stationary for “long periods of time” in a joint statement.
Snow ploughs became stuck in queues of traffic caused by “minor incidents”, the statement added.
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All of the warnings in place across the country are yellow, meaning there is a danger of injury from slips and falls and some disruption to travel expected.
A yellow warning for snow and ice is in place for the following regions from 4pm on Thursday to 10am on Friday:
Other yellow warnings which covered much of the country on Thursday morning have now expired.
They included a warning for snow and ice affecting Cornwall, much of Wales and parts of northwest England until 11am, an ice warning for parts of southern England and south-east Wales until 10.30am and a fog warning for Northern Ireland until 9am.
Travel disruption to road and rail services are likely on Thursday in the warning areas, as well as the potential for accidents in icy places, the forecaster said.
As icy conditions persist, motorists are being urged to stick to major roads that are most likely to have been gritted.
Car insurer RAC said it has seen the highest levels of demand for rescues in a three-day period since December 2022.
Former Scotland rugby captain Stuart Hogg has been handed a community payback order and a non-harassment order for abusing his estranged wife over the course of five years.
The sportsman admitted shouting and swearing, tracking her movements and sending her messages which were alarming and distressing in nature.
At Selkirk Sheriff Court on Thursday, he was given a community payback order with one year of supervision and a five-year non-harassment order.
Sheriff Peter Paterson warned Hogg the sentence was an “alternative to custody”.
A court heard how he berated Mrs Hogg for “not being fun” after going on drinking binges with his colleagues, and once sent more than 200 text messages to her in the space of a few hours which caused her to suffer a panic attack.
Hogg had been due to stand trial at Selkirk Sheriff Court last November, but pleaded guilty to the abuse which was said to have taken place at various locations including Hawick in the Scottish Borders and Bearsden in East Dunbartonshire.
At Jedburgh Sheriff Court in December, he was initially handed the five-year non-harassment order and fined £600 for breaching bail conditions by repeatedly contacting Mrs Hogg last June.
The former Glasgow Warriors and Exeter Chiefs, who plays for French club Montpellier, now lives abroad and is said to be in the process of getting a divorce.
Prosecutor Drew Long said the couple moved to Exeter in 2019 with their three young children, who were all under three, but Hogg’s behaviour “deteriorated” as he went out partying.
Mr Long said Hogg would “shout and swear and accuse Mrs Hogg of not being fun” for not joining in drinking, and that her family “noticed a change in her”.
In 2022, Mrs Hogg went on a night out and was bombarded with text messages from the rugby player which “caught the attention of the people she was with”, the prosecutor said.
The following year, the couple moved to Hawick in the Borders, but Hogg used an app to track his wife and “questioned her whereabouts” while she was dropping the children off.
In 2023, she decided to leave the sportsman and sought advice from a domestic abuse service.
Mr Long said in September of that year, Hogg “sent in excess of 200 texts in a few hours despite being asked to leave her alone”, which led to Mrs Hogg having a panic attack.
On 21 February 2024, police were called due to Hogg “shouting and swearing”.
He was taken into custody and thereafter placed on a bail order stipulating not to contact Mrs Hogg or to enter the family home.
The Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service (COPFS) said “no one should have to live in fear of a partner or former partner”.
Lynne Barrie, procurator fiscal for Lothian and Borders, added: “Stuart Hogg has now been convicted and held accountable for subjecting his estranged wife to years of domestic abuse.”
Hogg made his Scotland debut in 2012 and went on to make 100 appearances for his country.
He also made two appearances for the British and Irish Lions and was made an MBE for services to the sport in last year’s New Year Honours list.
She praised her family and friends, and also singled out those who had given her “a hi, a smile, a hug or even just a look to show they care”.
Mrs Hogg said she had thought “long and hard” about posting on Facebook, but added: “Now, it’s time to start my next chapter.
“To move on and to keep showing my kids every day that strength comes from unconditional love and support around you, and even when it hurts, love wins.”
Following the court case, Scottish Women’s Aid said coercive control – including stalking and micromanaging how women mother, where they go, what they wear and what they’re allowed to say – can be “more traumatic than a physical assault”.
Dr Marsha Scott, chief executive of the charity, added: “The sentence in this case, like so many handed down in Scotland, hardly meets the test of being proportionate when compared to the harm this man has caused.”
Liz Truss’ lawyers have sent a cease and desist letter to Sir Keir Starmer over his claims she “crashed the economy”.
The letter says Sir Keir’s continued claim the former Conservative prime minister crashed the economy with the September 2022 mini budget is defamatory and will “likely continue to cause serious harm to her reputation”.
It focuses on the Labour leader’s claims made in June last year during the general election campaign, and says accusations she crashed the economy were made with the purpose of damaging public opinion of Ms Truss as she stood as a parliamentary candidate.
Ms Truss, who stepped down as prime minister in under two months in charge, lost the South West Norfolk seat she had held since 2010 to Labour’s Terry Jermy in last year’s election.
Sir Keir’s spokesman said the prime minister has no plans to “moderate his language” based on the letter.
He also questioned whether Ms Truss will be writing to the “millions of people up and down the country” who shared Sir Keir’s view.
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The letter also says it is “false” to claim the mini budget crashed the economy and provides details of a definition of “crash of the economy” by Dr Andrew Lilico, an expert from right-wing thinktank the Institute of Economic Affairs and managing director of economic consultancy Europe Economics.
Market movement following the mini budget did not constitute a “crash”, the letter says, and accuses Sir Keir of displaying an “ignorance of basic economics” by doing so.
Following the mini budget, which included £45bn of unfunded tax cuts, the UK government’s long-term borrowing costs rose sharply by 0.3 percentage points over a day.
The pound then fell to record lows against the dollar, and there was another sharp rise in the cost of long-term government borrowing by 0.5 percentage points after then chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng hinted there would be further tax cuts.
This led to rising mortgage rates, with hundreds of products withdrawn, and an impact on UK pension funds.
Ms Truss’ lawyers blamed the interest rate changes on the Bank of England, “in particular by its poor handling of the liability-driven investment bonds (LDI) crisis, and its regulatory failures”.
It points out the Bank of England is independent of government and says: “Thus the relevant rate changes were not ’caused’ by our client.
“These facts were clear as early as May 2024, if not before.”
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‘Do you take any blame for your premiership?’
The letter argues there was “no rise in unemployment…no sustained loss of wealth”, and no “enduring economic impacts”.
It says Ms Truss and the mini budget did not play “a significant causal role in the financial market volatility of September/October 2022” and said almost everything, in fiscal terms, had been announced before the mini budget.
The letter requests Sir Keir “immediately cease and desist” from repeating she crashed the economy on an “amicable basis”.
“This request is made in the context of the basic levels of civility which is due between senior politicians, and we trust that you will respond accordingly,” the letter says.