What to watch for in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final — and which team will win
The first three games of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final saw the Florida Panthers build a 3-0 lead, dominating most aspects of play against the Edmonton Oilers.
Games 4 and 5 were a different story entirely, as the Oilers charged back with two straight wins, with four points in each contest for superstar Connor McDavid.
Will the Cats close it out in Game 6? Or will the series continue to Game 7? Our experts are here to break down all the big questions heading into Friday’s game (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN+).
What changed for the Panthers in Games 4 and 5?
Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporter: Just an overall lack of consistency. For the majority of the first three games, the Panthers were a metronome. They were a threat to score in every period. Even when their defensive structure had its challenges, they still received consistent goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky in a manner that made up for those miscues.
What’s happening now appears to be a systemic breakdown in a variety of areas. Game 5 reinforced that belief. The Panthers limited the Oilers to just 23 shots, 10 scoring chances and 3 high-danger scoring chances. Those metrics are strong — yet the Panthers allowed four goals, not counting an empty-netter at the end. Again, it’s a lack of consistency or at least a disconnect.
Victoria Matiash, NHL analyst: Aside from the “McDavid factor,” and that Bobrovsky appears more beatable than he has essentially all postseason, earning 11 penalties through two games hasn’t helped. Not only since three of them led to Oilers power-play goals, but also because, as by design, it’s more difficult to score in one’s own favor when down a player — unless you’re on the Oilers: Mattias Janmark did so in Game 4 and Connor Brown tallied one in Game 5.
We can add the latter of those to the list of reasons we’re even discussing a Game 6 back in Edmonton at all. If Brown didn’t open with that shorty five-ish minutes in, I’m not sure the Panthers wouldn’t already be parade-planning.
Arda Öcal, NHL broadcaster: Bobrovsky becoming human and McDavid becoming superhuman. More human than human, even. For Bob, that’s nine goals allowed against in the past two games, with .688 and .826 save percentages, respectively. Bob needs to transform back into the best version of Playoff Bob, like he had been (against McDavid especially) previously in this series.
Kristen Shilton, NHL reporter: Florida’s special teams went from impenetrable to vulnerable in a snap. The Panthers had allowed just two power-play goals in their previous 16 outings going into Game 4 — where Florida gave up three goals on the man advantage and two shorthanded.
Those are back-breaking totals in tightly contested times like these, and it just handed more momentum to the suddenly surging Oilers. Yes, McDavid is otherworldly and Bobrovsky showed he can be average, too. But Florida’s collective downfall was losing those battles they’d been winning handily throughout the postseason.
Greg Wyshynski, NHL reporter: These are all symptoms of the primary problem: The Cup was in the building, twice. The Panthers have sworn up and down that it didn’t matter, but Carter Verhaeghe let the mask slip before Game 5: “It’s a little different with the Cup in the building.”
Paul Maurice framed it — as Paul Maurice does — as the ultimate goal suddenly moving from after the game to being in front of it. Now your friends and family are in a building in Edmonton, waiting to see the Cup. And they’re all in Sunrise, plus all your fans, waiting to see the Cup. Florida’s starts in Games 4 and 5 are absolutely the byproduct of that tension. The Panthers are so much better when the expectations aren’t on them, and they’re punching from underneath. That might be the case in Game 6.
Connor McDavid will score ____ points in Game 6.
Clark: Three points; one goal, two assists.
Matiash: Two. A goal of his own and a power-play assist on Leon Draisaitl‘s first since forever ago (May 29).
Öcal: Three points total.
Shilton: Four points again; one goal, three assists.
Wyshynski: One goal and two assists to move two points behind Wayne Gretzky’s all-time record for points in a single postseason.
If the Panthers win Game 6, who wins the Conn Smythe?
Clark: It’s hard to ignore Connor McDavid for reasons that have everything and nothing to do with McDavid. One of the considerations Conn Smythe voters will likely weigh when it comes to any Panthers player is their consistency over the series. After Game 3, it appeared as if Bobrovsky and Aleksander Barkov were either the top two favorites or among the top three favorites.
Since then, Bobrovsky has struggled to stop shots while Barkov went from scoring four points and being on the ice for zero goals against through the first three games to going pointless while being on the ice for four goals against (2 power-play goals, 1 shorthanded and 1 5-on-5) in the past two games. By comparison, McDavid has had eight points in the past two games and has embodied how the Oilers went from struggling to find a grip to having a firmer grasp going into Game 6.
Matiash: McDavid could wrap up Game 6 minus-five while losing to the Panthers 7-0 and he’s still walking away with it. Hey, this is coming from someone who has been all over Barkov for the award up until recently.
Heading into Game 6, this generation’s Wayne Gretzky/Mario Lemieux has 20 more points than the most productive Panther (Matthew Tkachuk). We’re going to be referencing this performance for years and years.
Öcal: Connor McDavid, and it’s not even close. It’s a playoffs award not a Stanley Cup Final award. But even if it was, No. 97 broke two No. 99 records in the past two games. To ignore one of the greatest individual postseason performances in NHL history would be silly at this point. It’s already McDavid’s award.
Shilton: What is the Conn Smythe? An award for the player most valuable to his team in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Are we even discussing Game 6 probabilities without Connor McDavid? Would Edmonton be in the Cup Final at all if McDavid weren’t having an actual historically productive postseason?
Sergei Bobrovsky deserves all the accolades for what he has given the Panthers; there’s no doubt he has had an MVP-worthy playoffs, too. But, even his stellar run isn’t on par with what McDavid has done.
Wyshynski: The guy I said had an undeniable case to win the Conn Smythe whether or not his team captures the Stanley Cup, and that was before he posted his second straight four-point game.
Unless the voters have this unwavering commitment to the idea that a player from the losing team in the Final can’t win an award for most valuable player of the entire postseason — a rather daft notion, considering it has happened five previous times — then McDavid wins the Conn Smythe even if he doesn’t lift the Cup. He has led his team deep enough to justify it. He has shattered Gretzky’s record for assists in a single postseason and is poised to become the only player other than The Great One in 1987 to have a hand in over 50% of his team’s goals.
Forget the hockey context: This is one of the most dominant individual efforts in sports history. Of course it’s Connor McDavid.
The final score of Game 6 will be ______.
Clark: 4-3, Florida. Generating 26 shots over the final two periods of Game 5, along with the fact they outshot the Oilers 10-4 in the third period, was the most active the Panthers have looked in the past two games. We’ve talked a lot about how finding any sort of breakthrough could be a sign. Maybe this can be that for the Panthers.
And if it’s not? Then, we’re going to be asking if the Oilers are about to pull off the greatest comeback in NHL history, if not the best in the history of North American professional sports.
Matiash: 5-3 Panthers. Florida rides the momentum of what they did right in Game 5. Happy to be wrong here though, as I’m salivating at the thought of a Game 7 on Monday.
Öcal: 4-2, Oilers. Bring on Game 7!
Shilton: 5-4, Florida. The Panthers won’t lose three in a row. Florida was all over Edmonton in the third period of Game 5 (just like the Oilers took it to their opponent in the third frame of Game 3) and it will set a tone for how they start in Game 6. This is the Panthers’ time.
Wyshynski: 4-3 Florida. As noted above, Game 5 felt very much like Game 3 in the sense that one team took the win and the other team took some confidence away in their loss. For about 25 minutes, the Panthers looked like themselves again, and Tkachuk looked like the guy we saw in 2023.
His line with Sam Bennett and Evan Rodrigues will generate multiple goals, Sam Reinhart adds one himself and the power play finally converts. Bobrovsky doesn’t fumble the bag and the Panthers hang on in the final minute to win the Stanley Cup for the first time.
Week 7 shook up the College Football Playoff picture. No team earned a more impactful result than Indiana, whose win at Oregon is now the best in the country during the first half of the season. Indiana’s playoff chances jumped 21%, climbing to a 93% chance to make the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff predictor.
Not only are the Hoosiers off the bubble, but Indiana also is chasing a first-round bye as one of the top four seeds, having cemented its place alongside Ohio State and Miami as one of the nation’s best teams.
Indiana wasn’t the only winner, though, as South Florida and Texas Tech both saw their playoff chances jump by at least 15%.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into three groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. Teams listed as On the cusp are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.
The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to-date.
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Spotlight: Tennessee. The Vols have looked like a borderline playoff team against unranked opponents in recent weeks, beating Mississippi State and Arkansas by a combined 10 points with one overtime. Offensively they’ve been elite, averaging 300 passing and 200 rushing yards per game this season. Defensively, they need to stop the run to make a run in the SEC. They’ll have a chance against Alabama on Saturday to further legitimize their hopes. With a win, Tennessee’s chances of reaching the playoff would jump to 52%, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Tennessee ranks No. 10 in ESPN’s game control metric and No. 19 in strength of record. The Vols are projected in the committee’s No. 12 spot this week, which means they would get knocked out of the actual field during the seeding process to make room for the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion. The five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the playoff, so if the fifth team is ranked outside of the committee’s top 12, its No. 12 team gets the boot.
Enigma: Texas. The Longhorns took a baby step toward a return to CFP relevance with a big win against Oklahoma, but it was their first win against a Power 4 opponent and their first against a ranked team. Texas has the 15th-most difficult remaining schedule, and with two losses is already in a precarious position. The Longhorns will play three of their next four opponents on the road (at Kentucky, Mississippi State and Georgia). There were encouraging signs from the win against the rival Sooners, from the stingy defense that flustered quarterback John Mateer all game to what looked like an improved offensive line that gave quarterback Arch Manning some time to throw. He completed 16 of 17 passes for 119 yards and a touchdown when under no duress. If Texas can continue to put it all together against the heart of its SEC schedule, it could make a run to be one of the committee’s top two-loss teams.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
On the cusp: Tennessee
Work to do: Missouri, Texas, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina
Big Ten
Spotlight: USC. The Trojans have looked like a CFP top 25 team through the first half of the season, with their only loss a close one on the road to a ranked Illinois team. In Week 7, USC’s convincing 31-13 win against Michigan pushed it into more serious Big Ten contention. Ohio State and Indiana are the leaders, followed by Oregon, but USC has the fourth-best chance (7.1%) to reach the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics. That will change when the Trojans go to Oregon on Nov. 22, but they don’t play Ohio State or Indiana during the regular season. A win at Notre Dame on Saturday would be a significant boost to USC’s playoff résumé, while simultaneously knocking the Irish out of playoff contention. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, USC’s chances of reaching the playoff would adjust to 58% with a win against Notre Dame. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has less than a 50% chance to win its games against Notre Dame and Oregon.
Enigma: Washington. The Huskies have improved significantly and quickly under coach Jedd Fisch, who’s in his second season. Their only loss was to Ohio State, 24-6, on Sept. 27, but they lack a statement win that gives them real postseason credibility. Wins at Washington State and Maryland are certainly respectable, but bigger opportunities loom starting on Saturday at Michigan. This game has significant implications, because if the Huskies can win, they stand a strong chance of hosting Oregon as a one-loss team in the regular-season finale. According to ESPN Analytics, Michigan has a 67.6% chance to win on Saturday, and Oregon has a 70% chance to beat Washington on Nov. 29. The Huskies are projected to win every other game, though. A win against Michigan could increase their playoff hopes significantly.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
On the cusp: USC
Work to do: Nebraska, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Georgia Tech. Raise your hand if you had Georgia Tech at Duke on Saturday circled as a game that would impact the College Football Playoff. The Yellow Jackets would have been the next team to crack the latest CFP projection this week, and their chances of reaching the ACC championship game will skyrocket if they can win at Duke. Georgia Tech currently has the fourth-best chance to reach the ACC title game behind Miami, Duke and Virginia. ESPN Analytics gives the Blue Devils a 61.8% chance to win. The only other projected loss on the Jackets’ schedule is the regular-season finale against Georgia. Even if Georgia Tech reaches the ACC title game and loses, it could get in as a second ACC team with a win over Georgia.
Enigma: Virginia. The Hoos have won back-to-back overtime games against Florida State and Louisville, putting themselves in contention for a spot in the ACC championship. They host a tricky Washington State team on Saturday that just gave Ole Miss a few headaches, though, and need to avoid a second loss to an unranked team. The toughest game left on their schedule is Nov. 15 at Duke. Without an ACC title, Virginia is going to have a tough time impressing the committee with a schedule that includes a loss to unranked NC State and possibly no wins against ranked opponents. It didn’t help the Hoos that Florida State lost to an unranked Pitt, as the win against the Noles was the highlight of their season so far.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Miami
On the cusp: Georgia Tech
Work to do: Virginia
Would be out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big 12
Spotlight: BYU. The Cougars needed a late-night double-overtime win at Arizona to stay undefeated, and are on the path to face Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game. The question is if they can stay undefeated until the Nov. 8 regular-season matchup against the Red Raiders. BYU has its second-most difficult remaining game on Saturday against rival Utah, which is also in contention for the Big 12 title. BYU has a slim edge at a 51% chance to win, which would be a critical cushion considering back-to-back road trips to Iowa State and Texas Tech await. The Big 12 has also gotten a boost from Cincinnati, which has a favorable remaining schedule and could be a surprise CFP top 25 team. If BYU stumbles over the next three weeks, a road win at a ranked Cincinnati team would help its résumé. Speaking of the Bearcats …
Enigma: Cincinnati. Is this team for real? The Bearcats have won five straight since their 20-17 season-opening loss to Nebraska, including three straight against Big 12 opponents Kansas, Iowa State and UCF. All three of those teams are .500 or better, and the selection committee will respect that as long as it holds. Cincinnati also has November opportunities against Utah and BYU, which could change the playoff picture in the Big 12. ESPN Analytics gives the Bearcats less than a 50% chance to beat Utah, BYU and TCU.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Texas Tech
On the cusp: BYU
Work to do: Cincinnati, Houston, Utah
Would be out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
Independent
Would be out: Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have the best chance to win out of any team in the FBS, with a 49% chance to finish 10-2. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Notre Dame would have a 50% chance to reach the CFP if it runs the table. That seems accurate, given the selection committee would compare Notre Dame against the other 10-2 contenders, and it’s a coin toss as to whether the room would agree that the Irish’s résumé and film make them worthy of an at-large bid. How Miami and Texas A&M fare will impact this — as will the head-to-head results if those teams don’t win their respective leagues and are also competing with the Irish for one of those at-large spots. It helps Notre Dame that opponents USC and Navy could finish as CFP top 25 teams if they continue to win. Undefeated Navy could also make a run at the Group of 5 playoff spot.
Group of 5
Spotlight: South Florida. South Florida. The Bulls are back on top after their convincing 63-36 win at previously undefeated North Texas, which just a week ago was listed here as a potential Group of 5 contender. Following the win, the Bulls’ chances of reaching the CFP increased by 20%, according to ESPN Analytics. South Florida’s lone loss was Sept. 13 at Miami, 49-12, which was a significant defeat against what could be the committee’s No. 1 team. Although that result showed the gap between the Bulls and one of the nation’s top teams, it certainly didn’t eliminate South Florida, which has one of the best overall résumés of the other contenders. With wins against Boise State, Florida and now at North Texas, this is a team that earned the edge in this week’s latest projection. Still, South Florida has the second-best chance of any Group of 5 school to reach the playoff (30%) behind Memphis (42%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Enigma: UNLV. Undefeated UNLV survived a scare from 1-5 Air Force on Saturday to stay undefeated and in contention for a playoff spot. UNLV and Boise State, both of the Mountain West Conference, are the only teams outside of the American Conference with at least a 5% chance to reach the playoff, and they play each other in a critical game on Saturday. UNLV has scored at least 30 points in each of its six games this season and is 6-0 for the first time since 1974, but it hasn’t always been pretty. UNLV scored the winning touchdown against Air Force with 36 seconds left and allowed the Falcons 603 total yards. The Rebels have the fourth-best chance to reach the playoff at 9% behind the American’s Memphis, South Florida and Tulane.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: South Florida
Work to do: Memphis, Navy, Tulane, UNLV
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Indiana
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Alabama
No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Georgia
No. 9 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Alabama winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 LSU/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Indiana
No. 10 Oklahoma/No. 7 Georgia winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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David Hale
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — After a week of chaos surrounding the North Carolina football program and Bill Belichick’s future in Chapel Hill, the six-time Super Bowl-winning coach denied rumors he was looking for an exit and doubled down on his belief that his “process” eventually will lead to a winning team.
“Reports about my looking for a buyout or trying to leave here is categorically false,” Belichick said. “There’s zero truth to any of that. I’m glad I’m here. We’re working toward our goals. We believe very much in the process. We need to just keep working and grinding away, and that’s exactly what we’re doing.”
Belichick said there were “things we could’ve done better” but widely praised embattled general manager Michael Lombardi as having “done a good job,” reiterated that the timing of his hire put North Carolina behind other schools in terms of talent acquisition, and said that, regardless of the on-field results for the 2-3 team, UNC has made major strides in its performance.
“It’s a learning curve,” Belichick said. “We’re all in it together. But we’re making a lot of progress, and the process will eventually produce the results we want like they have everywhere else I’ve been.”
Belichick’s Monday media session was attended by university chancellor Lee Roberts, athletics director Bubba Cunningham and a host of other high-level administrators, as well as Lombardi — something unique for a midseason news conference.
Cunningham said the school continues to support Belichick’s vision for the program, but he admitted the disappointing results have led to a lot of frustration.
“There’s a steeper learning curve than we all anticipated,” Cunningham said. “The gap between expectations and performance is more severe than what we expected, and that’s what creates a lot of attention.”
Two weeks ago, Lombardi sent a letter to donors preaching patience during a “rebuilding” process, a terminology several players pushed back on.
“It’s Coach Belichick’s first year, so I’m not surprised he’s wanting to rebuild it,” Boise State transfer Andrew Simpson said. “Wanting to grow and be better, that’s what I focus on. Just because it’s a rebuild doesn’t mean we can’t win games now. We have seven more games, and that’s what I focus on.”
Belichick downplayed any concerns about the on-field results, saying he doesn’t “have expectations other than achieving what we want to achieve every day” and reiterating he has the support of the administration.
Reports of internal strife in the locker room were also dismissed by Belichick and multiple players made available to the media Monday, with Belichick saying Lombardi, in particular, maintains close conversations with players.
Among other controversies last week, Belichick refused to comment on the suspension of assistant coach Armond Hawkins for recruiting violations, but he said a planned Hulu documentary, which had reportedly been scrapped amid the team’s bad start, would still happen in some form.
“It’s still a work in progress, and we’re working through a few logistics,” Belichick said. “But there will be something.”
North Carolina is coming off its second open date in the past three weeks and heads to Cal for the team’s first ACC road trip Friday.
Belichick said he expects an improved performance with the additional week of practice time, despite a woeful defeat against Clemson following the last open date.
“Everybody’s most interested in the final score, and I’m at the top of that list,” he said. “But it’s a process. You build a culture, you build a program, and eventually the results will come. When will that happen? Hopefully as soon as possible. We’re working hard to get there.”
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