What to watch for in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final — and which team will win
The first three games of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final saw the Florida Panthers build a 3-0 lead, dominating most aspects of play against the Edmonton Oilers.
Games 4 and 5 were a different story entirely, as the Oilers charged back with two straight wins, with four points in each contest for superstar Connor McDavid.
Will the Cats close it out in Game 6? Or will the series continue to Game 7? Our experts are here to break down all the big questions heading into Friday’s game (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN+).
What changed for the Panthers in Games 4 and 5?
Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporter: Just an overall lack of consistency. For the majority of the first three games, the Panthers were a metronome. They were a threat to score in every period. Even when their defensive structure had its challenges, they still received consistent goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky in a manner that made up for those miscues.
What’s happening now appears to be a systemic breakdown in a variety of areas. Game 5 reinforced that belief. The Panthers limited the Oilers to just 23 shots, 10 scoring chances and 3 high-danger scoring chances. Those metrics are strong — yet the Panthers allowed four goals, not counting an empty-netter at the end. Again, it’s a lack of consistency or at least a disconnect.
Victoria Matiash, NHL analyst: Aside from the “McDavid factor,” and that Bobrovsky appears more beatable than he has essentially all postseason, earning 11 penalties through two games hasn’t helped. Not only since three of them led to Oilers power-play goals, but also because, as by design, it’s more difficult to score in one’s own favor when down a player — unless you’re on the Oilers: Mattias Janmark did so in Game 4 and Connor Brown tallied one in Game 5.
We can add the latter of those to the list of reasons we’re even discussing a Game 6 back in Edmonton at all. If Brown didn’t open with that shorty five-ish minutes in, I’m not sure the Panthers wouldn’t already be parade-planning.
Arda Öcal, NHL broadcaster: Bobrovsky becoming human and McDavid becoming superhuman. More human than human, even. For Bob, that’s nine goals allowed against in the past two games, with .688 and .826 save percentages, respectively. Bob needs to transform back into the best version of Playoff Bob, like he had been (against McDavid especially) previously in this series.
Kristen Shilton, NHL reporter: Florida’s special teams went from impenetrable to vulnerable in a snap. The Panthers had allowed just two power-play goals in their previous 16 outings going into Game 4 — where Florida gave up three goals on the man advantage and two shorthanded.
Those are back-breaking totals in tightly contested times like these, and it just handed more momentum to the suddenly surging Oilers. Yes, McDavid is otherworldly and Bobrovsky showed he can be average, too. But Florida’s collective downfall was losing those battles they’d been winning handily throughout the postseason.
Greg Wyshynski, NHL reporter: These are all symptoms of the primary problem: The Cup was in the building, twice. The Panthers have sworn up and down that it didn’t matter, but Carter Verhaeghe let the mask slip before Game 5: “It’s a little different with the Cup in the building.”
Paul Maurice framed it — as Paul Maurice does — as the ultimate goal suddenly moving from after the game to being in front of it. Now your friends and family are in a building in Edmonton, waiting to see the Cup. And they’re all in Sunrise, plus all your fans, waiting to see the Cup. Florida’s starts in Games 4 and 5 are absolutely the byproduct of that tension. The Panthers are so much better when the expectations aren’t on them, and they’re punching from underneath. That might be the case in Game 6.
Connor McDavid will score ____ points in Game 6.
Clark: Three points; one goal, two assists.
Matiash: Two. A goal of his own and a power-play assist on Leon Draisaitl‘s first since forever ago (May 29).
Öcal: Three points total.
Shilton: Four points again; one goal, three assists.
Wyshynski: One goal and two assists to move two points behind Wayne Gretzky’s all-time record for points in a single postseason.
If the Panthers win Game 6, who wins the Conn Smythe?
Clark: It’s hard to ignore Connor McDavid for reasons that have everything and nothing to do with McDavid. One of the considerations Conn Smythe voters will likely weigh when it comes to any Panthers player is their consistency over the series. After Game 3, it appeared as if Bobrovsky and Aleksander Barkov were either the top two favorites or among the top three favorites.
Since then, Bobrovsky has struggled to stop shots while Barkov went from scoring four points and being on the ice for zero goals against through the first three games to going pointless while being on the ice for four goals against (2 power-play goals, 1 shorthanded and 1 5-on-5) in the past two games. By comparison, McDavid has had eight points in the past two games and has embodied how the Oilers went from struggling to find a grip to having a firmer grasp going into Game 6.
Matiash: McDavid could wrap up Game 6 minus-five while losing to the Panthers 7-0 and he’s still walking away with it. Hey, this is coming from someone who has been all over Barkov for the award up until recently.
Heading into Game 6, this generation’s Wayne Gretzky/Mario Lemieux has 20 more points than the most productive Panther (Matthew Tkachuk). We’re going to be referencing this performance for years and years.
Öcal: Connor McDavid, and it’s not even close. It’s a playoffs award not a Stanley Cup Final award. But even if it was, No. 97 broke two No. 99 records in the past two games. To ignore one of the greatest individual postseason performances in NHL history would be silly at this point. It’s already McDavid’s award.
Shilton: What is the Conn Smythe? An award for the player most valuable to his team in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Are we even discussing Game 6 probabilities without Connor McDavid? Would Edmonton be in the Cup Final at all if McDavid weren’t having an actual historically productive postseason?
Sergei Bobrovsky deserves all the accolades for what he has given the Panthers; there’s no doubt he has had an MVP-worthy playoffs, too. But, even his stellar run isn’t on par with what McDavid has done.
Wyshynski: The guy I said had an undeniable case to win the Conn Smythe whether or not his team captures the Stanley Cup, and that was before he posted his second straight four-point game.
Unless the voters have this unwavering commitment to the idea that a player from the losing team in the Final can’t win an award for most valuable player of the entire postseason — a rather daft notion, considering it has happened five previous times — then McDavid wins the Conn Smythe even if he doesn’t lift the Cup. He has led his team deep enough to justify it. He has shattered Gretzky’s record for assists in a single postseason and is poised to become the only player other than The Great One in 1987 to have a hand in over 50% of his team’s goals.
Forget the hockey context: This is one of the most dominant individual efforts in sports history. Of course it’s Connor McDavid.
The final score of Game 6 will be ______.
Clark: 4-3, Florida. Generating 26 shots over the final two periods of Game 5, along with the fact they outshot the Oilers 10-4 in the third period, was the most active the Panthers have looked in the past two games. We’ve talked a lot about how finding any sort of breakthrough could be a sign. Maybe this can be that for the Panthers.
And if it’s not? Then, we’re going to be asking if the Oilers are about to pull off the greatest comeback in NHL history, if not the best in the history of North American professional sports.
Matiash: 5-3 Panthers. Florida rides the momentum of what they did right in Game 5. Happy to be wrong here though, as I’m salivating at the thought of a Game 7 on Monday.
Öcal: 4-2, Oilers. Bring on Game 7!
Shilton: 5-4, Florida. The Panthers won’t lose three in a row. Florida was all over Edmonton in the third period of Game 5 (just like the Oilers took it to their opponent in the third frame of Game 3) and it will set a tone for how they start in Game 6. This is the Panthers’ time.
Wyshynski: 4-3 Florida. As noted above, Game 5 felt very much like Game 3 in the sense that one team took the win and the other team took some confidence away in their loss. For about 25 minutes, the Panthers looked like themselves again, and Tkachuk looked like the guy we saw in 2023.
His line with Sam Bennett and Evan Rodrigues will generate multiple goals, Sam Reinhart adds one himself and the power play finally converts. Bobrovsky doesn’t fumble the bag and the Panthers hang on in the final minute to win the Stanley Cup for the first time.
Following two transfer portal windows and the NFL draft, college football fans might need Apple AirTags to track where their favorite players wound up.
This space is dedicated to those who decided to stay — commitments who boosted their teams’ College Football Playoff hopes. Penn State’s 2022 recruiting class could take up half the list: quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton and defensive tackle Zane Durant are all back from the Nittany Lions’ CFP semifinal run.
“When we all committed here coming out of our ’22 class, that was one of our goals coming in as Penn Staters, we wanted to compete for championships, both Big Ten and obviously national championships,” Allar said. “And obviously we had a taste of that last year, and we know how close you are, so it’s just building off that and trying to make another run at it.”
Here’s a look at 13 players from 11 schools and representing five different leagues whose decisions to either forgo the NFL draft or sidestep the portal have beefed up their respective teams’ playoff chances.
The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft
What his return means: Nussmeier, a fifth-year senior, and offensive coordinator Joe Sloan are entering their second season together and aiming to improve upon a stellar debut, which will help the Tigers contend for the SEC title. Nussmeier threw for 4,052 passing yards last year, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Even if LSU can’t win the league, Nussmeier’s return can help the Tigers earn an at-large CFP bid — especially if he makes a similar jump to his predecessors, Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels, who both won the Heisman Trophy in their second seasons in Baton Rouge. Nussmeier’s dad, Doug, will be nearby as the Saints’ offensive coordinator after winning a Super Bowl as the Eagles’ quarterbacks coach. With four new starters on the Tigers’ offensive line, there’s going to be an adjustment period, but if the “Nuss Bus” gets the time he needs, this should be a breakout season and his draft stock will rise with LSU’s playoff chances.
2. Drew Allar, QB, Penn State
The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft
What his return means: Penn State has something Ohio State and Oregon don’t — a starting quarterback with playoff experience. The Nittany Lions might finally have the pieces in place to return to the top of the Big Ten and contend for a national title. Allar, who’s entering his third season as the starter, will be surrounded by NFL talent on the offensive line and in the running game, and could make a case to be Penn State’s first Heisman Trophy winner since John Cappelletti in 1973. Last season, he had 3,327 passing yards, the third most in a season in school history. With a second season under coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, and more options at wide receiver — plus a still-loaded tight end room — there will be no shortage of options for Allar to push the ball downfield more.
The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft
What his return means: On paper, Clemson has enough offensive firepower returning to elevate the Tigers into a deeper CFP run than their first-round exit in 2024 and they should have the Heisman-contending quarterback the program has desperately missed. Klubnik leads a Clemson offense that is No. 1 in the FBS in returning production (81%), according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Klubnik reestablished himself as one of the top quarterbacks in the country following a down season in 2023. Last year, his 308 completions, 3,639 passing yards and 36 passing touchdowns all ranked among the best seasons in program history. As he enters his third season as a starter under offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, Klubnik’s understanding of the offense and his relationship with Riley has grown, positioning Klubnik for what should be his best season with the Tigers.
4. Nicholas Singleton/Kaytron Allen, RBs, Penn State
The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft
What their return means: The nation’s best running back duo returns intact, and they’ve got playoff experience along with familiarity and knowledge of the offense in coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s second season, all of which should boost the Nittany Lions’ hopes of winning the Big Ten and returning to the CFP. Singleton and Allen were projected by ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. to be the Nos. 5 and 6 running backs available in the 2025 draft after becoming the first combo in Penn State history to each have at least 1,000 rushing yards in the same season. Penn State ran for more than 200 yards in 10 games last season, and the Nittany Lions led all Power 4 teams and Notre Dame in rushing with 3,237 yards. Of course, it helps to have 6-foot-4, 350-pound offensive guard Olaivavega Ioane blocking.
The decision: Avoid the transfer portal
What his return means: Sellers absolutely drew interest from other teams in November and December, but he re-signed quickly with the Gamecocks — and his commitment could be the difference between receiving or not receiving a CFP bid. The same can be said for edge rusher Dylan Stewart, who also attracted attention after 10.5 TFLs and 6.5 sacks last year. South Carolina made a playoff case with Sellers leading the offense last year, but the CFP selection committee didn’t rank the No. 15 Gamecocks high enough for inclusion. He improved throughout the season last fall, increasing his Total QBR from 52 in his first six games to 81 over the last six. This year, he’ll be working with Mike Shula, the son of Pro Football Hall of Fame coach Don Shula.
The decision: Avoid the transfer portal (twice)
What his return means: Illinois can be a CFP sleeper team by competing for the Big Ten title and earning an at-large bid if it doesn’t win the league. The importance of Illinois retaining its starting quarterback after a strong spring push from Tennessee can’t be understated. The Illini have a chance to be this year’s Indiana — a Big Ten contender with a manageable schedule that can play its way into the selection committee’s rankings with a standout quarterback and his supporting cast. After public speculation he might transfer for his final year of eligibility, Altmyer announced in December he would return to the team. He did it again in April, following the drama at Tennessee. Altmyer passed for 2,543 yards, 21 touchdowns and only five interceptions last year, leading Illinois to a 9-3 regular season and a top-20 ranking in the Associated Press poll.
The decision: Avoid the transfer portal
What his return means: K-State can win another wide-open Big 12 race and earn an automatic bid into the playoff as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. Johnson never entered the transfer portal, but he attracted interest, especially after Tennessee lost Nico Iamaleava. “We got a damned wall built around him,” a K-State source told ESPN. “They better bring the Tennessee National Guard.” Expectations will be higher this year for Johnson, who threw for 2,712 passing yards, 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in his first full season as a starter last year. He also had 605 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. With the depth at wide receiver, K-State’s passing game could flourish this fall.
The decision: Forgo the NFL draft
What his return means: A veteran offensive line that includes four returning starters from a group that allowed the third-fewest sacks in the SEC last season (20). It also means better protection for quarterback DJ Lagway, who could be one of the best in the country if he can stay healthy — and Lagway’s health is the most critical component to Florida’s success this year. According to Pro Football Focus, Slaughter allowed one sack, one QB hit, six QB hurries and eight pressures — with only three penalties — in 728 snaps. The Gators again have one of the toughest schedules in the country, and Slaughter is the kind of veteran they need up front to help Lagway survive it.
The decision: Forgo the NFL draft
What his return means: That the Buckeyes didn’t lose everyone from their national championship defense. Styles had an outstanding 2024 season with 100 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, six sacks, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery and five passes defended. His draft stock rose as the Buckeyes ascended through the CFP bracket, but he told reporters at their national championship celebration that he “wasn’t ready to leave yet.” Styles still has room to improve and grow, and his draft stock will continue to rise. He’s now in a position of leadership as one of just three returning starters on defense and the most experienced player among the rising seniors.
The decision: Forgo the NFL draft
What his return means: The Ducks retained a 6-foot, 175-pound receiver who played a key role in advancing them to the top seed in the 2024 CFP, and they’ll need his help again — especially with the departure of Tez Johnson, who entered the NFL draft after leading Oregon with 83 receptions for 898 yards and 10 touchdowns his senior season. Stewart is Oregon’s only returning receiver who had more than 30 receptions in 2024. Stewart, who transferred to Oregon from Texas A&M, had 48 catches last season for 613 yards and tied for the team high with five receiving touchdowns. He was Oregon’s second-most targeted receiver in an offense that finished 13th nationally in passing yards. Stewart’s role will increase, and his decision to return will help the Ducks’ new starting quarterback, which could be former UCLA QB Dante Moore.
The decision: Forgo the NFL draft
What his decision means: The Longhorns have leadership, playoff experience, NFL talent and a familiar face returning to a defense that again has to replace multiple starters from the previous season. Taaffe, a rising senior who ascended from walk-on to All-American, had 71 tackles, 6 TFLs, 2 sacks, 2 interceptions, 10 passes defended, 1 forced fumble and 1 fumble recovery. His decision to return was driven in large part by the desire to win a national title at Texas and the devastation he said he felt following the loss to Ohio State. Taaffe will get another chance at the Buckeyes in the season opener.
The decision: Withdrew name from portal
What his return means: The Broncos were able to retain top talent from their 2024 CFP run, which featured one of the nation’s top defensive fronts, a huge boost for coach Spencer Danielson as he tries to own the Group of 5’s guaranteed spot as one of the nation’s five highest-ranked conference champions. Fely took visits to Miami and Cal before announcing on social media he planned to return to Boise. Fely, who spent the past three seasons at Boise State, started 28 games in the past two seasons. He had nine TFLs last year and 5.5 sacks.
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