Van Gisbergen learning NASCAR ropes by ‘driving a forklift’
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Alanis King, Racing columnist
Last summer, three-time Australian Supercars champion Shane van Gisbergen shocked the NASCAR world by winning his debut in the top-level Cup Series. It was the first time anyone had done so in 60 years, and it kicked off his whirlwind of a career change: moving to the United States to pursue NASCAR full time.
This summer, he’s four months into his tour as a full-time driver in the second-tier Xfinity Series, where he’s preparing for his eventual move to Cup. What has he learned about the car so far?
“Sometimes it feels like you’re driving a forklift,” he told ESPN.
Van Gisbergen’s NASCAR switch is fascinating for many reasons, including the car. His debut NASCAR victory came on the Chicago Street Course, which he ran with Trackhouse Racing’s “Project91” team, a part-time star car for drivers from other series. It was the perfect storm: It was NASCAR’s first time at a street course, and it happened in the rain — two things that come naturally for Van Gisbergen. That helped level the playing field between him and the drivers who race NASCAR every week.
The Chicago race was meant to be a one-off, and Van Gisbergen told ESPN that he didn’t expect to win, but “stuff just snowballed so quickly” after he did. He soon signed a development contract with Trackhouse, which included running the 2024 season with Kaulig Racing in Xfinity to adapt to NASCAR’s oval-heavy schedule.
“I had the perfect opportunity to come in and be on a reasonably equal playing field at Chicago, since street circuits are sort of my deal,” Van Gisbergen said. “America’s a massive place, and there are so many young, talented drivers coming through. It’s hard for people to come over here and break into it, so I’m pretty lucky.”
Perhaps the biggest factor in Van Gisbergen’s win was the new Cup Series race car, called the “Next Gen,” which debuted in 2022. It’s less like old NASCAR cars (built to go fast and turn left) and more like a sports car (built to go fast, plus turn left and right), making it easier for non-NASCAR drivers to be competitive.
That adaptability hasn’t trickled down to NASCAR’s top development leagues. So while Van Gisbergen adjusts to the NASCAR schedule in Xfinity, he’s doing so in a totally unfamiliar car — and he’s already won in it twice.
“[I’ve learned] a huge amount of things, like just how funky the Xfinity car is to drive,” he said. “The biggest thing is that the Cup car, it feels like a race car. It feels like every other car I’ve driven around the world, with the aero and the rear end. It’s a huge evolution of a NASCAR, I guess, to go the whole different route that they have. Even on the oval, it kind of feels like a normal car.
“Whereas the Xfinity car, it’s only specific to oval racing, basically. The style of car that has been designed and developed for years, that NASCAR type of stock car. The rear end is really, really interesting, how it moves around. I’ve never driven a car like that.”
Since the arrival of the Next Gen, the NASCAR Xfinity and Cup cars are fundamentally different vehicles. The Xfinity car is old-school NASCAR: 15-inch wheels with five lug nuts each, a solid rear axle, and a four-speed manual transmission. The Next Gen car is in line with the rest of the world: 18-inch wheels with large single lug nuts, an independent rear suspension and a five-speed sequential transmission.
Those changes manifest themselves in many ways. When talking about the old Cup car versus the new one last year, 23XI Racing Cup Series driver Tyler Reddick told me the new car is especially durable on road courses.
“Where a lot of drivers would have issues under braking with the [last] car was with the old-school truck arms, and just how much those flex and wheel hop,” Reddick said. “Once you had axle hop — wheel hop — you were more than likely crashing. The more you had that axle hop, if you didn’t crash the car, you would just shake all the parts loose. You had to really go into the approach of: ‘If I’m going to push this car, I’m going to save it for the end of the race, because I don’t want to just rip the car apart.’
“With the Next Gen car, that’s totally different. With independent rear suspension, all the beefy suspension parts it has, you don’t really have situations where the car falls apart like the other car did. You can launch it across curbs as hard as you want.”
Van Gisbergen’s first Xfinity win came at Portland International Raceway earlier this month. On the first lap, the wheel hop got him.
“I got into Sam Mayer,” he said. “The rear end just starts locking up and doing whatever it does. It’s certainly an interesting thing. I haven’t really felt that in many cars, so it’s weird, to say the least.”
But the car is only one challenge in Van Gisbergen’s NASCAR switch. Another is the tracks; he comes from a background of sports cars, endurance racing, rally and more, but much of the NASCAR season happens on ovals.
So far, both of Van Gisbergen’s Xfinity wins are on road courses. He has an average finish of 15.7 so far this season, and on ovals, his best result so far is third in Atlanta.
“The ovals are very, very, very difficult,” Van Gisbergen said. “But I feel like I’m getting better and better, finishing the races with straight cars and starting to get more and more competitive. Road courses are [my] strength, but I don’t know if ovals are a weakness. We’re obviously not running at the very front, but getting better and better and learning a lot. So it’s kind of about where we expect it to be.”
One of the main voices in Van Gisbergen’s decision to come Stateside was Marcos Ambrose, who moved to NASCAR as a Supercars champion nearly 20 years ago. He was always a standout on road courses in the Cup Series, even with the old car, but ovals didn’t come as easily.
Right now, Van Gisbergen thinks he just needs time to adapt.
“I’ve had some great people helping me, with Kevin Harvick and Marcos Ambrose, and then my teammates A.J. [Allmendinger] and Josh [Williams] as well,” he said. “They’re always open to anything I ever ask.
“A.J.’s a good yardstick. He’s obviously capable of winning on the ovals, and we’re in the same equipment. If I can be matching him or running near what he’s doing in the races, that can only be a good thing. I’m trying to learn what he’s doing with the car to make it faster to try and match him.”
Van Gisbergen’s NASCAR switch is compelling on a number of levels. He’s 35 years old, around the age when longtime NASCAR drivers near their performance peak, and he had a career for the history books overseas. If he’d continued that career, he would’ve been a threat to win Supercars championships for years to come.
Instead, he’s giving himself a new challenge in America. He told ESPN that his Chicago performance probably makes NASCAR more appealing for other drivers, but that once they get here, “it’s certainly not easy.”
“Everyone here is very, very good,” Van Gisbergen said. “They’ve been doing these tracks for so long, and driving these cars every week. It’s been a huge change and challenge in life, moving here and the career. It’s been a lot of new skills to learn. But most of all, it’s been a lot of fun.”
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Bill Connelly
In 2023, Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan Wolverines completed a nine-year title pursuit, filled with setbacks and plenty of losses to Ohio State, by defeating future conference mate Washington in the College Football Playoff championship. In 2024, Ryan Day’s Ohio State Buckeyes used the extra mulligan offered by a 12-team CFP to get right after a tough rivalry loss to Michigan — OSU’s fourth in a row — and maul the rest of the field on the way to four wins and a title.
Top to bottom, the Big Ten isn’t college football’s best conference, but it’s the biggest, and it has produced the past two national champions. And it could very well produce a third straight in 2025. The odds are about one-in-three, per SP+.
Obviously Ohio State has a chance to repeat — that’s how life works when you have blue-chippers galore and two of the five or so best players in the country. But after two years of completed redemption arcs, the ultimate breakthrough and redemption could be on the horizon this fall. After 11 seasons, five AP top-10 finishes and, of course, 10 losses to Ohio State, James Franklin appears to have put together his most complete Penn State team yet, one that has received plenty of hype in the Way-Too-Early rankings.
An easy early schedule means Penn State probably won’t be tested until about Week 5 this fall. In the meantime, Ohio State and Michigan play huge early games, and we get to keep our eye out for this year’s Indiana, an upstart with just the right transfer alchemy and just the right schedule, and this year’s Illinois, a team that gets just the right breaks and capitalizes on them.
Who lives up to the hype (or doesn’t)? Who surprises us this time around? Let’s preview the Big Ten.
Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another FBS conference, ultimately including all 136 FBS teams. The previews include 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules. Here are the MAC, Conference USA, Mountain West, Sun Belt, AAC, Indie/Pac-12, ACC and Big 12 previews.
2024 recap
It’s going to take me a little while to get used to seeing records like 13-3 and 14-2 in college football, but that’s what Penn State and Ohio State produced, respectively, as they charged to last year’s CFP semifinals (and, in Ohio State’s case, beyond). The Nittany Lions and Buckeyes took over in the Big Ten mantle in the postseason after the regular season produced a couple of other dynamite stories. Oregon rolled unbeaten through its first Big Ten slate, beating OSU and PSU along the way, and in its first year under Curt Cignetti, Indiana started 10-0 and ended up with its first AP top-10 finish in 57 years. The Ducks and Hoosiers went 0-2 in the CFP, but it was a brilliant season all the same.
It’s easy to lose track of storylines when you have an 18-team conference, but there were plenty of others here, from Illinois’ overshadowed 10-win season, to 2023’s national title game participants (Michigan and Washington) collapsing to a combined 14-12 record — thanks to late wins over Ohio State and Alabama, Michigan still ended up pretty happy — to Nebraska bowling for the first time since 2016, to Wisconsin missing a bowl for the first time since 2001, to Purdue collapsing to depths a power-conference team should never see.
Continuity table
The continuity table looks at each team’s returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2024 FBS starts from both returning and incoming players and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2025. (Why “approximate”? Because schools sometimes make it very difficult to ascertain who redshirted and who didn’t.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.
Illinois and Indiana both return top-40 levels of production after last season’s surprise runs, which is awfully intriguing, and Penn State’s returnees are in the top 25 after reaching last season’s semifinals. That’s a huge reason for its 2025 hype. Last year’s other top teams, Ohio State and Oregon, lost quite a bit, though ranking in the 90s after winning the national title is pretty normal. (Note: Oregon’s production totals and returning starts don’t include those of receiver Evan Stewart, who could sit out the 2025 season because of injury.)
By the way, if you’re intrigued by the roster flips of the 2020s, Purdue’s your team. New head coach Barry Odom, who flipped UNLV into something impressive in 2023, had more than 50 players transfer out and 50 new players enter. The Boilermakers bring up the rear in this department, but with how genuinely terrible they were last season, that’s not much of a concern.
2025 projections
Ohio State starts out on top after last season’s title run, but with two new coordinators and a new starting quarterback, the Buckeyes certainly have some questions to answer. Penn State’s questions, meanwhile, are mostly existential: The Nittany Lions have ridiculous experience and maybe the best coordinator duo in the country after Franklin brought in defensive coordinator Jim Knowles from Ohio State. But can they clear the hurdles that have so bedeviled them in the past?
Elsewhere, Oregon looks to avoid falling too far after losing a ton of last year’s production, Michigan looks to rebound properly, Illinois and Indiana both seek happy encores, and we wait to find out which team from outside the top 25 wins the close games and gets the right breaks for a run at the CFP. The candidates are endless.
Even with the uncertainty and variance I bake into these conference title odds, it’s very much a “big four versus everyone else” thing here, with Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon and Michigan combining for a 70% chance of winning the league. It feels as if it should be closer to about 90%.
10 best games of 2025
Here are the 10 games — eight in conference play, plus two huge nonconference games — that feature (A) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (B) a projected scoring margin under 10 points. That second part is key, as neither Penn State (two) nor Ohio State (three) have many projected close games on the docket.
Texas at Ohio State (Aug. 30) and Michigan at Oklahoma (Sept. 6). The biggest games of Weeks 1 and 2 are Big Ten vs. SEC affairs, though they take on different flavors. Texas-Ohio State is a rematch of last year’s delightful CFP semifinal, in which Jack Sawyer’s late scoop-and-score ended a Longhorns comeback attempt. Both the Longhorns and Buckeyes will almost certainly start out in the AP top 5. Meanwhile, Michigan and Oklahoma are looking for ways back into the top 10, and both will bring remodeled offenses to the table.
Illinois at Indiana (Sept. 20). If things play out as forecasted and we have two different races going on in the Big Ten — the big names vying for the conference title and the pool of 14 other teams fighting among each other for another playoff spot — then this is the biggest Illinois-Indiana game of all time. The loser will have to be just about perfect to get to 10-2 and a potential bid.
Oregon at Penn State (Sept. 27). The Week 5 slate is overloaded with big games, but this will almost certainly be the biggest. The Ducks and Nittany Lions will almost certainly be a combined 7-0 at this point, as neither team will have played a top-50 team.
USC at Illinois (Sept. 27) and Indiana at Iowa (Sept. 27). Like I said, there’s just way too much going on in Week 5. Goodness.
Michigan at USC (Oct. 11). By this point, Michigan will have already played at Oklahoma and Nebraska and could be 5-0 and in the top 10, or 3-2 and flailing. USC will have just visited Illinois and could be 5-0 or flailing as well. This game will be huge, for any of about 17 different reasons.
Penn State at Ohio State (Nov. 1). In terms of combined SP+ ratings, this is the single biggest game of the 2025 regular season.
Indiana at Penn State (Nov. 8). Whether PSU is coming off of a win or a loss in Columbus, the Nittany Lions will desperately need to move on and avoid a hangover.
Ohio State at Michigan (Nov. 29). Proof that even in a 12-team CFP era, a rivalry loss can send you into a spectacular, existential tailspin. (And proof that you might be able to steer out of it a little better now.)
Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders
Head coach: Ryan Day (seventh year, 70-10 overall)
2025 projection: First in SP+, 10.3 average wins (7.7 in the Big Ten)
Just trust the product. It’s something I found myself repeating frequently as playoff expansion skeptics complained about how we would be losing the integrity of the regular season — “Alabama will sit players for the Iron Bowl because the result doesn’t matter!” and whatnot. But if last year’s Michigan-Ohio State game taught us anything, it’s that games like that will always matter. The Wolverines’ fourth straight win over the Buckeyes completely reversed how Michigan fans would look back at 2024, and it sent Ohio State, and especially its fans, into a weekslong tailspin even though Ohio State still safely secured a playoff spot. The regular season is going to remain a delight because college football is a delight. Just trust the product.
That ended up applying to Ohio State too. The dud against Michigan cost Day’s Buckeyes a potential CFP bye, but they regrouped and unleashed their star power, winning four CFP games by an average score of 36-19. It wasn’t a total surprise — they entered the postseason still ranked first in SP+, after all — but it was quite the show of strength.
A lot of names will be different this time. The Buckeyes start out first in SP+, but they’ll have two new coordinators (Ryan Hartline on offense, Matt Patricia on defense) leading a lineup that returns basically 5.5 combined starters. There are former blue-chippers everywhere you look, and receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs are two of the most proven players in the country. But both lines are starting over, and of the four players with more than 750 yards from scrimmage last season, only Smith returns.
It’s hard to be inspired by the new coordinator hires. In Hartline’s first job as OC in 2023, the Buckeyes crashed to 34th in offensive SP+ and Day hired Chip Kelly for a year. With Kelly off to the NFL again, Hartline gets a do-over. As for Patricia, well, he has loads of NFL experience and was mentored by Bill Belichick, but the last time he performed well in any capacity (from a statistical standpoint) was 2016.
That said, talent rules, and both Hartline and Patricia will oversee loads of it. Likely starting quarterback Julian Sayin was a top-10 recruit in 2024, Smith and Carnell Tate are a terrifying receiver duo (and there are countless other former blue-chippers available), likely starting running back James Peoples is a former top-200 recruit with excellent yards-after-contact potential (West Virginia starter CJ Donaldson Jr. is physical too), and the offensive line has 12 former blue-chippers and six players with starting experience, including two transfers.
The ingredients are just as high end on defense. Day brought in a couple of defensive end transfers — Beau Atkinson (North Carolina) and Logan George (Idaho State), who combined for 30.5 tackles for loss and 14 sacks last season — but that was about all the portal work he needed. Downs and linebacker Sonny Styles will clean up a lot of potential messes, and plenty of 2024 backups thrived in limited samples, most notably ends Kenyatta Jackson Jr. and Joshua Mickens and tackles Kayden McDonald and Eddrick Houston. Sophomore corners Jermaine Mathews Jr. and Aaron Scott Jr. are probably also ready for larger roles alongside senior Davison Igbinosun.
There are obvious reasons why Ohio State starts out on top. I wish I liked the new hires more, but if the Buckeyes repeat as champs, we’ll all act as if we assumed it all along.
Head coach: James Franklin (12th year, 101-42 overall)
2025 projection: Third in SP+, 10.4 average wins (7.4 in the Big Ten)
Franklin has made college football predictable in an almost jarring way: Over the past three seasons, Penn State is 34-2 as a favorite, 27-0 when favored by at least six points. Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions are 0-6 as underdogs. They win and lose the games they’re supposed to. That makes them very successful. It also gives them a glass ceiling.
If that doesn’t change now, will it ever? Penn State has more proven entities than any team in college football in 2025. Franklin is one of the sport’s best head coaches, offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki helped PSU improve from 30th to ninth in offensive SP+ in his first season calling plays, and in the past decade alone, new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has crafted Oklahoma State’s best defense in 15 years, Ohio State’s best in 25 and Duke’s best in 60-plus. He’s magnificent.
Penn State has finished seventh or better in defensive SP+ for four straight years and six of the past eight, and Knowles inherits known quality at every position: end Dani Dennis-Sutton and tackle Zane Durant (combined: 26 TFLs, 11.5 sacks) up front, Tony Rojas, Dom DeLuca and North Carolina transfer Amare Campbell at linebacker and corner A.J. Harris and safety Zakee Wheatley in the back. The depth isn’t amazing — of the 17 defenders with at least 300 snaps last year, only eight return, including only two of six up front — but when you have a track record, you get the benefit of the doubt.
(Speaking of track records: Among PSU’s incoming freshmen is a linebacker by the name of Lavar Arrington II. No pressure, kid!)
On offense, running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton both return for their senior seasons; in three years, they’ve combined for a jaw-dropping 6,979 yards from scrimmage (5.9 per touch) and 68 touchdowns. The offensive line returns four starters, including an All-America candidate in guard Vega Ioane, and the receiving corps, which was far too limited last season, received portal upgrades in Devonte Ross (Troy), Trebor Pena (Syracuse) and Kyron Hudson (USC). All-world tight end Tyler Warren is gone, but returning TEs Luke Reynolds and Khalil Dinkins are good by non-Warren standards, and if the wideouts are ready to produce more, that’s a net win.
That leaves Drew Allar. The No. 2 pocket passer in the 2022 recruiting class, he was seen as a savior from the moment he arrived in Happy Valley; it was going to be almost impossible for him to live up to the hype. But after an up-and-down 2023 debut, he improved in his first year with Kotelnicki, throwing for 3,327 yards and 24 touchdowns and finishing 17th in Total QBR. He’s clearly good, but it’s difficult to win three or four CFP games with a merely top-20 quarterback. He probably needs to prove he has one more gear, though having such an outstanding supporting cast will help.
If PSU continues the “win as a favorite, lose as a dog” thing in 2025, the Nittany Lions probably will reach the Big Ten championship game again, having lost only at Ohio State on Nov. 1. They’ll probably be favored in every other game, especially through a ridiculously weak nonconference slate (Nevada, Florida International, Villanova). Rarely do all the arrows point in the right direction the way they are for the Nittany Lions heading into this season. It would be a shame not to take advantage of that.
Head coach: Dan Lanning (fourth year, 35-6 overall)
2025 projection: Seventh in SP+, 10.1 average wins (7.3 in the Big Ten)
Over the past two seasons, Oregon has gone a combined 25-3, finishing third in SP+ twice and losing only to teams that either reached or won the CFP championship. Lanning hasn’t been a head coach for very long, but it’s hard to prove more than he has in three years.
It will be even more impressive if the Ducks are in the top three again this season. With receiver Evan Stewart out, center Iapani Laloulu is probably the only returning starter from an offense that ranked second in offensive SP+, and of the 19 defenders who played at least 100 snaps last season, only five return, including one of five linemen and none of the six DBs. Lanning has recruited like gangbusters in recent years, and he landed some of the biggest names in the transfer portal in running back Makhi Hughes (Tulane), guard Emmanuel Pregnon (USC), corner Jadon Canady (Ole Miss) and safety Dillon Thieneman (Purdue). But the bar is really high.
OC Will Stein’s third starting QB in three years probably will be sophomore Dante Moore. The No. 2 overall prospect in the 2023 class, Moore stumbled in a freshman audition with Chip Kelly’s UCLA and studied behind Oregon’s 2024 starter, Dillon Gabriel, for a season. Reading back through his high school scouting reports, you see things like “high floor” and “safe bet” a lot, which brings to mind a lot of what we said about Gabriel. Stein’s offense features lots of quick, easy passes, and Moore will be the point guard for a receiving corps featuring both some semi-proven veterans (Gary Bryant Jr., Justius Lowe, Florida State transfer Malik Benson) and high-upside youngsters such as redshirt freshman Jeremiah McClellan and freshman Dakorien Moore, 2025’s No. 4 overall prospect. Hughes produced 3,022 yards from scrimmage (5.5 per touch) and 24 touchdowns in two seasons at Tulane, and he should pair nicely with veteran third-down specialist Noah Whittington in the backfield. Up front, Laloulu is indeed the only returning starter, but Pregnon and tackles Isaiah World (Nevada) and Alex Harkey (Texas State) should immediately hold their own.
The defense is also retooling, but having one of the best linebacking corps in the country won’t hurt. Senior Bryce Boettcher returns on the inside, with juniors Matayo Uiagalelei and Teitum Tuioti (combined: 22 TFLs, 16 sacks) on the edge. That can certainly paper over some cracks, though I’m concerned about the line. Veteran Bear Alexander (USC) should join junior A’Mauri Washington in the starting lineup, but the rotation will otherwise be filled with youngsters. In the secondary, Thieneman and corners Canady and Theran Johnson (Northwestern) are the closest to sure things that you were going to find in the portal, and the return of 2023 starter Jahlil Florence after a 2024 knee injury helps. But the rest of the rotation will be super young.
Like Penn State, Oregon gets to ease into 2025 — PSU will be the Ducks’ first top-50 opponent in Week 5. Things get trickier from there, but they still play only one other projected top-25 team (Indiana). For a team with upside but few known quantities, that’s pretty much perfect.
Head coach: Sherrone Moore (second year, 9-5 overall)
2025 projection: 10th in SP+, 9.8 average wins (7.2 in the Big Ten)
If you can beat Ohio State and Alabama without a quarterback, just think of what you can do with one, right?
In the first season after the departures of head coach Jim Harbaugh and stars like J.J. McCarthy and Blake Corum, Michigan basically played with one hand tied behind its back. The Wolverines went unbeaten when scoring at least 24 points (national scoring average: 28.0), but they reached that mark in only six of 13 games thanks primarily to a black hole at the QB position. They ranked 91st in Total QBR and 131st — last nationally among non-service academies — in passing yards per game (129.1). They ran the ball until they had to punt, then hoped the defense would make stops and maybe set up some points. They indeed managed to beat OSU and Bama with scores of 13-10 and 19-13, but one expects far more from a defending national champion.
Either five-star freshman Bryce Underwood or veteran transfer Mikey Keene (Fresno State) will begin the season at QB for Moore’s second Michigan team, and it’s probably fair to assume that Underwood will finish it there. His first spring was up-and-down, but going from the aforementioned black hole to the best high school prospect in the country is quite the leap.
But there are mostly unproven entities elsewhere. Transfers at running back (Bama’s Justice Haynes and UMass’ CJ Hester) and receiver (Indiana’s Donaven McCulley) are the only players who recorded more than 200 yards from scrimmage last season, and while three line starters return, the rest of the rotation is gone, meaning important snaps for either smaller-school transfers (Cal Poly’s Brady Norton and Ferris State’s Lawrence Hattar) or youngsters. When you ranked 98th in success rate and 127th in yards per play, it won’t take much improvement to make a big difference, but Michigan will probably score only so many points in 2025. There will still be a lot of pressure on the defense.
On defense, star tackles Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham are gone, but with transfers Tre Williams (Clemson) and Damon Payne (Bama), and seniors Rayshaun Benny and Ike Iwunnah, the rotation should be strong. The linebacking corps is loaded with Ernest Hausmann and Jaishawn Barham on the inside and Derrick Moore and TJ Guy on the outside. If there’s a concern, it comes in the back where five of last season’s top seven are gone. Arkansas transfer TJ Metcalf and 2023 starter Rod Moore are welcome additions at safety, but sophomore Jyaire Hill is the only proven corner. Still, the Wolverines’ No. 10 defensive SP+ ranking in 2024 was their worst in a full season since 2018 — they have a track record.
The No. 10 ranking in SP+ is certainly aggressive. It will require massive offensive improvement. But with a schedule featuring only two opponents projected better than 30th (Oklahoma at the start, Ohio State at the end), the Wolverines won’t need a top-10 team to win a lot of games.
A couple of breaks away from a run
Head coach: Bret Bielema (fifth year, 28-22 overall)
2025 projection: 19th in SP+, 8.7 average wins (6.1 in the Big Ten)
It was overshadowed by Indiana’s even more incredible run, but Illinois had itself a season in 2024. The Illini won 10 games for the first time in 23 years, and Bielema rang in 2025 by embarrassing Shane Beamer on national television. Illinois finished 16th in the AP poll, and now it leads the conference in returning production.
But even with the experience, winning 10 games again could be tricky. In May, I looked at three types of luck or fortune that could lead to a turnaround (good or bad) the following season and came up with ways to grade teams in each category. Illinois was one of only three teams ranked in the top 25 in all three categories — turnovers (23rd), close-game fortune (10th) and lineup stability (21st). The Illini won two overtime games, scored on the final play of regulation to beat Rutgers and made late stops to preserve their leads against Kansas and South Carolina. They were 31st in SP+, more like an eight-win team that accidentally won 10, and that makes them prime “better team, worse record” candidates in 2025.
Edge rusher Gabe Jacas (15.5 TFLs, eight sacks) is maybe the best returning defensive playmaker in the conference, and the entire secondary is back, including a sturdy trio of safeties (Matthew Bailey, Miles Scott and Xavier Scott). With last season’s top four linemen gone, exciting young coordinator Aaron Henry will need a combination of sophomores, including Jeremiah Warren, and transfers such as Curt Neal (Wisconsin) to produce up front. If the line is decent, the defense will be a top-20 unit.
After averaging just a 90.3 offensive SP+ ranking in Bielema’s first three seasons, the offense became far less of a liability in 2024. It still wasn’t great (55th), but the Illini avoided penalties and three-and-outs, and quarterback Luke Altmyer was outstanding on third downs. Altmyer and most of his line return, including potential all-conference left tackle J.C. Davis, but the skill corps took a hit. Last year’s top rusher (Josh McCray) and top two receivers (Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin) are gone, leaving a mix of returnees — running backs Aidan Laughery and Kaden Feagin, slot receivers Hank Beatty and Collin Dixon — and transfers to carry more weight. Receivers Hudson Clement (West Virginia) and Justin Bowick (Ball State) combined for 1,124 yards at 15.8 per catch; there’s potential there.
If experience produces sturdy play early in the season, look out. By the end of September, the Illini will have played relative toss-ups at Duke and Indiana and at home against USC. Win all three, and they’re going to be in the playoff discussion for quite a while. But it’s hard to get the breaks you need in close games for two straight years.
Head coach: Curt Cignetti (second year, 11-2 overall)
2025 projection: 23rd in SP+, 8.1 average wins (5.2 in the Big Ten)
It will probably always be one of the most incredible first-year turnarounds we’ll ever see.
Indiana, 2021-23: 9-27, 91.7 average SP+ ranking (97.0 offense, 77.7 defense)
Indiana, 2024: 11-2, 11th in SP+ (18th offense, 15th defense)
In his first season in charge in Bloomington, Cignetti brought in a huge batch of transfers (including many from James Madison, his previous employer) and immediately had a CFP team on his hands. Including JMU’s virtually perfect jump from FCS to FBS, basically everything Cignetti has touched in the 2020s has turned to gold.
But the problem with leaning on a huge batch of transfers for immediate success, is that you will probably have to do it again the following year. Among last season’s standouts, a few return: receiver Elijah Sarratt, three offensive line starters and high-quality defenders in end Mikail Kamara, linebacker Aiden Fisher and corner D’Angelo Ponds. But only eight starters are back, if the Hoosiers make another run at double-digit wins, it will again be because of the portal.
At quarterback, Cignetti did well in adding Cal’s Fernando Mendoza. Over 20 appearances in two seasons, Mendoza has thrown for 4,712 yards and 30 TDs; he’s more efficient than explosive, but he torches zone coverage, and if opponents move to man defense, he’s a good scramble threat. New running backs Lee Beebe Jr. (UAB) and Roman Hemby (Maryland) will join returnee Kaelon Black in the backfield, and among five portal additions in the receiving corps, I particularly like Makai Jackson (Appalachian State). Center Pat Coogan (Notre Dame) is the most important addition up front. This offense will be different than last season’s, but I like what coordinator Mike Shanahan has to work with.
Thanks to a combination of aggressive run defense and big-play prevention against the pass, Indiana had just about the best combination of defensive efficiency and explosiveness you could hope for in 2024.
Yes, the Hoosiers’ schedule was lighter than some others, but even against the best offenses on the schedule, they held Ohio State to its third-worst yards-per-play average of the season and its worst yards-per-successful-play average. Notre Dame got a 98-yard touchdown run from Jeremiyah Love in the CFP but otherwise averaged a paltry 4.5 yards per play. This was a good defense, and I bet it will be again. Cignetti brought in four FBS linemen who combined for 24 TFLs last season (my favorite: Western Kentucky tackle Hosea Wheeler), plus four DBs to pair with Ponds & Co.
You can’t sneak up on everybody twice, and trips to Penn State, Oregon and Iowa await (along with a huge visit from Illinois). I doubt this is a playoff team again in 2025, but it seems doable that Cignetti turns IU into a stable, top-25 program. A year ago, that would have been unthinkable.
Head coach: Matt Rhule (third year, 12-13 overall)
2025 projection: 34th in SP+, 7.5 average wins (4.8 in the Big Ten)
As a child of the 1980s and 1990s, I have to say that the idea of Nebraska finishing with a losing record for seven straight years was utterly mind-blowing. It’s one thing to drift away from national title contention; it’s another to fail to even bowl. That’s a ridiculously low bar for a program with Nebraska’s resources.
We can’t say that Rhule has the Huskers back on a path toward the top 10, but he at least ended the bowl drought in 2024. Despite a four-game midseason losing streak and growing pains for highly touted freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola, NU started 5-1 and reached bowl eligibility with a November win over Wisconsin; the Huskers won their bowl to assure a winning record.
It’s a start. And if Rhule nailed two new coordinator hires, the growth should continue. After two dynamite seasons with Tony White leading the defense (average defensive SP+ ranking: ninth), Rhule promoted DBs coach John Butler when White left for Florida State. Butler’s secondary is loaded with experience and has stars in corner Ceyair Wright and nickel Malcolm Hartzog Jr., but we’ll see about a front six that lost every starter and could need immediate contributions from transfers such as linebacker Marques Watson-Trent (114 tackles and 18 run stops at Georgia Southern) and edge rushers — and former blue-chippers — Dasan McCullough (Oklahoma) and Williams Nwaneri (Missouri).
The offense was poor in 2024, ranking just 99th in offensive SP+, but it was also highly reliant on freshmen Raiola, receiver Jacory Barney Jr., left tackle Gunnar Gottula, and sophomores such as running back Emmett Johnson and left guard Justin Evans. Spread offense old-hand Dana Holgorsen took over playcalling late in the season, and NU topped 20 points in only one of his four games, but after an offseason with Raiola — and with a couple of receiver additions in Dane Key (Kentucky) and Nyziah Hunter (Cal) — maybe the offense can perk up a bit. Raiola’s first season was predictably all over the map, with six games with a 75.0 Total QBR or higher and three under 40.0, but your freshman season is just about survival, right?
In his first two stops as a college head coach (Temple and Baylor), Rhule’s teams went from bad in Year 1 (3-21 combined) to decent in Year 2 (13-12) and great in Year 3 (21-7). Aiming for double-digit wins might be a bit much, but the schedule is built for a fast start — only one of the first six opponents is projected in the top 60 — and if the offense improves more than the defense potentially regresses, a 9-3 record, with a potential 10th win in the bowl, isn’t off the table.
Head coach: Lincoln Riley (fourth year, 26-14 overall)
2025 projection: 30th in SP+, 7.2 average wins (5.2 in the Big Ten)
When you’ve gone just 15-13 in your last 28 games at USC, as Riley has since an 11-1 start, your name is going to automatically show up on “hot seat” lists. That’s just the way it works. But damned if Riley isn’t building his team like a guy with the best job security in the world. His Trojans’ win total has fallen for two straight years, but he signed only 16 transfers, an average number in 2025, and less than half of them are seniors. He elected to stick with junior Jayden Maiava at quarterback after four solid but unspectacular starts. And despite losing quite a bit of depth from his first semi-competent defense in four years — only 10 of 13 players with 300-plus snaps return — he definitely didn’t overdo it with portal guys.
Riley reportedly has a pretty prohibitive buyout at the moment, and he’s acting like it. Though this team does have a handful of pretty good seniors — linebacker Eric Gentry and incoming transfers in running back Eli Sanders (New Mexico), cornerback DJ Harvey (San José State) and safety Bishop Fitzgerald (NC State) — most of this team’s best players are guys who will still have eligibility left in 2026, when members of what is currently a spectacular recruiting class come to town. Steel yourself for some serious USC hype this time next year, I guess.
D’Anton Lynn did a nice job in his first season as defensive coordinator; the Trojans improved from 105th to 48th in defensive SP+, thanks mostly to big-play prevention and outstanding third-down defense. Safety Kamari Ramsey is the only returning starter in the secondary, but he’s great, and Harvey and Fitzgerald should help. Gentry is a good playmaker at linebacker, and the addition of 330-pounder Keeshawn Silver (Kentucky) and 350-pounder Jamaal Jarrett (Georgia) up front should certainly provide some, uh, immovability. I don’t expect an elite defense, but further improvement is likely.
On offense, Maiava is a decent scrambler, Sanders and juco transfer Waymond Jordan are exciting and explosive additions, and slot receiver Makai Lemon averaged a whopping 3.0 yards per route, second in the conference.
The line is more experienced, especially with the additions of senior transfers J’Onre Reed (Syracuse) and DJ Wingfield (Purdue), but I’m not sure about the upside there. Regardless, Riley should have enough to field another top-20 offense, develop further, win another seven or eight games and buy time for the cavalry to arrive in 2026.
Head coach: Kirk Ferentz (27th year, 204-124 overall)
2025 projection: 28th in SP+, 7.0 average wins (4.6 in the Big Ten)
They play that frustrating zone defense. They run on first down. They punt (and punt well) on fourth down. They don’t commit penalties. If you make a certain number of mistakes, they will beat you; if you don’t, they probably won’t. For 26 seasons, Ferentz has stripped away as much clutter as possible and boiled football down to a very specific formula. It has brought him five AP top-10 finishes and 22 bowl seasons. With everything that has changed in this sport in a short amount of time, this level of steadiness is an incredible achievement.
On paper, Iowa improved significantly in 2024 — from 47th to 16th in SP+, from 128th to 69th on offense — though a 1-3 record in one-score finishes kept the win total tamped down. In 2025, the Hawkeyes could field their most accomplished quarterback in ages. Mark Gronowski comes aboard after leading South Dakota State to a pair of FCS national titles and throwing for 10,309 yards in parts of four seasons. He sat out spring practice after shoulder surgery and will still have to beat out Auburn transfer Hank Brown and returnee Jackson Stratton for the job, but winning is a thing Gronowski tends to do pretty well.
With three senior starters returning on the offensive line, including all-conference center Logan Jones, backs Kamari Moulton and Jaziun Patterson should see quite a bit of running room, and that can only be enhanced by quality play behind center. It might be asking too much for Ferentz to let coordinator Tim Lester dial up deep shots to senior Jacob Gill or 6-foot-4 sophomore Reece Vander Zee, but this should be a solid version of the typical Iowa offense.
Only four starters return on defense, and though Ferentz added some interesting transfers such as tackles Jonah Pace (Central Michigan) and corner Shahid Barros (South Dakota), coordinator Phil Parker will have to lean heavily on the developmental pipeline Iowa still manages to maintain. The line should be dynamite with seniors Pace, tackle Aaron Graves and ends Ethan Hurkett and Max Llewellyn (combined: 19.5 TFLs, 12 sacks), but there aren’t many proven players at linebacker or in the secondary. If Iowa weren’t an annual presence in the defensive SP+ top five, I’d be worried.
With six games projected within one score and visits from Penn State and Oregon (you know Iowa will scare at least one of them), close games will make the difference between potential CFP contention and finishing 7-5. But it’s almost comforting knowing exactly what the Hawkeyes are going to look like regardless.
Head coach: P.J. Fleck (ninth year, 58-39 overall)
2025 projection: 40th in SP+, 6.8 average wins (4.4 in the Big Ten)
Most of what I just said about Ferentz’s Hawkeyes also applies to Fleck’s Golden Gophers. In eight years at Minnesota, Fleck has engineered six bowl bids and three seasons with nine or more wins, and he has done it with a plodding offense and often sterling defense.
The offense didn’t quite plod well enough in 2024 (81st in offensive SP+), and now a redshirt freshman quarterback takes over behind center. But 6-foot-5, 230-pound Drake Lindsey comes well regarded, and the skill corps might have a bit more explosiveness than normal. Running back A.J. Turner (8.3 yards per carry at Marshall) could complement returnee Darius Taylor beautifully in the backfield, and receiver transfers Javon Tracy (Miami-Ohio) and Logan Loya (UCLA) could work well with big-play returnee Le’Meke Brockington. Rumor has it that dynamic sophomore safety Koi Perich could get snaps on offense as well, and Fleck added another blue-chip sophomore in Malachi Coleman (Nebraska). The line is generally big and solid, but it will be reliant on transfers with three lost starters and four portal additions. Though this will still be a Minnesota offense, for better or worse, it feels as if this version might have a bit higher ceiling and lower floor than usual.
Fleck’s four top-15 defenses have come with three different coordinators, so the loss of DC Corey Hetherman to Miami doesn’t have to spell doom. Longtime Fleck assistant Danny Collins takes the reins and should know what to do with a unit that returns 10 of the 17 players with 200-plus snaps in 2024.
The secondary could be pretty sophomore-heavy with safeties Perich (five interceptions and nine run stops last year), Kerry Brown and 2023 starter Darius Green all manning key roles, but there are veterans in the front six. Deven Eastern, a 310-pound tackle, made 14 run stops, sacks leader Anthony Smith returns, and linebacker transfer Jeff Roberson (Oklahoma State) should comfortably replace Cody Lindenberg in the middle. If at least one of a trio of smaller-school transfers clicks — end Steven Curtis (Illinois State), tackle Rushawn Lawrence (Stony Brook), corner Jaylen Bowden (NC Central) — then this should be another strong defense.
The high variance potential of the offense makes Minnesota hard to project — trips to Ohio State and Oregon are probably the only unwinnable games, but just about any opponent besides Northwestern State could trip the Gophers up on a bad day. There might not be a bigger wild card in the middle of the conference.
Head coach: Jedd Fisch (second year, 6-7 overall)
2025 projection: 39th in SP+, 6.3 average wins (3.8 in the Big Ten)
You need more than 153 dropbacks to create an accurate, predictive sample of what you’re going to be capable of moving forward. For most freshmen, that’s good, as their first 153 dropbacks probably aren’t successful.
But for Demond Williams Jr., it took only that many for him to build serious excitement.
Williams started the last two games of a relative lost season for the Huskies and went 0-2 because the defense gave up 84 combined points. But he completed 43 of 52 passes for 575 yards, 5 touchdowns and only 1 interception, and not including sacks, he rushed for 137 yards and another score. He took an eye-popping 15 sacks in those two games — he was clearly still learning what he could and couldn’t get away with at the college level — but still produced an 84.3 Total QBR, which would have been nearly Kurtis Rourke-like over an entire season.
If Williams is genuinely good — and doesn’t take a million sacks — then there’s a legitimate chance for a second-year leap for the UW offense. He’ll have a relatively experienced line in front of him and a skill corps that includes 1,000-yard back Jonah Coleman (and a physical backup in sophomore Adam Mohammed), receivers Denzel Boston and Penn State transfer Omari Evans, and another sophomore in big-play tight end Decker DeGraaf. The overall depth of experience on offense will be minimal, but there are mountains of upside.
With Williams, the offense has a pretty wide range of outcomes, but the range for the defense might be even larger because of newness. Only five of 15 players with 200-plus snaps return, and Ryan Walters replaced Stephen Belichick (who left to coach for his dad at North Carolina) at coordinator. Walters was a successful defensive coordinator at Missouri and Illinois before bombing as Purdue’s head coach. Fisch aimed for known disruptors in the portal and found quite a few, such as tackles Ta’ita’i Uiagalelei (Arizona) and Simote Pepa (Utah), linebackers Jacob Manu (Arizona), Taariq Al-Uqdah (Washington State) and Xe’Ree Alexander (UCF), corner Tacario Davis (Arizona) and safeties CJ Christian (FIU) and Alex McLaughlin (Northern Arizona). There aren’t many proven returnees, but edge rusher Isaiah Ward and corner Ephesians Prysock are solid.
Fisch generated lots of traction in his second season at Arizona, and it’s not hard to envision something similar happening at UW. But he’ll need to hit on a lot of transfers, and he’ll need his faith in a guy with 153 dropbacks wholly rewarded.
Head coach: Greg Schiano (17th year, sixth of second stint, 94-101 overall)
2025 projection: 45th in SP+, 5.8 average wins (3.2 in the Big Ten)
“Only one pilot has proved he can fly this plane with any degree of success.” That’s what I wrote about Schiano and Rutgers in last year’s preview, and it’s only more true a year later, after another winning season and RU’s best SP+ ranking since 2011 … the last year of Schiano’s first tenure. The Scarlet Knights have finished with a winning record in eight of their past 12 seasons under Schiano and in two of their past 16 under anyone else.
The 2024 Knights were a bit different than recent iterations, fielding their best offense in a decade and their worst defense in five years. Kirk Ciarrocca’s offense avoids negative plays and penalties, runs as much as opponents will allow, doesn’t bother with horizontal passes and returns a majority of last season’s attack. That includes veteran quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis, four offensive line starters (plus four transfers with significant experience), last season’s two best big-play receiving threats (6-foot-3 Ian Strong and 6-foot-6 KJ Duff) and a solid slot man in North Texas’ DT Sheffield. Ciarrocca will need a new lead back with Kyle Monangai off to the Chicago Bears, but backups Antwan Raymond and Samuel Brown V produced similar efficiency numbers, and transfer CJ Campbell Jr. has rushed for more than 1,000 career yards at Florida State and (mostly) Florida Atlantic.
New defensive co-coordinators Robb Smith (a Schiano veteran) and Zach Sparber should get steadiness from linebacker incumbents Dariel Djabome and Moses Walker, but both the defensive line (which returns only two of five players with more than 300 snaps) and secondary (two of seven) are undertaking portal overhauls. I like the DB additions — corner Jacobie Henderson (Marshall), safety Jett Elad (UNLV) and nickel Cam Miller (Penn State) could all stick in the lineup — but I love the new linemen. Eric O’Neill (James Madison) and Bradley Weaver (Ohio) combined for a whopping 38.5 TFLs, 21.5 sacks and 33 run stops last year; they were maybe the best defensive players in the Sun Belt and MAC, respectively. Tackles Doug Blue-Eli (USF) and Darold DeNgohe (JMU) paled in comparison, but they’re good too. This is one of the better defensive portal hauls in the country. I’d be surprised if this wasn’t a top-30 defense again, and if it is, the SP+ projections above are too conservative.
Head coach: Luke Fickell (third year, 13-13 overall)
2025 projection: 37th in SP+, 5.2 average wins (3.3 in the Big Ten)
It can be redundant talking about teams in the Big Ten’s former West division because they almost all attempt variations of the same big, burly manball style. But Wisconsin is proof of what can happen if that type of team attempts to stray from it.
When Fickell was hired from Cincinnati in 2023, he tried to thread the needle between manball and modernity on offense, hiring coordinator Phil Longo, a friend of both passing and tempo. The experiment did not work. From 65th in offensive SP+ in 2022, the Badgers sank to 86th, then 100th.
Longo left for Sam Houston, and Fickell attempted to right wrongs by bringing in Jeff Grimes. Over seven years as a coordinator, Grimes has had offenses ranked as high as ninth in offensive SP+ and as low as 85th, but his wide zone scheme tends to produce a good run game, and he keeps the tempo low. He has two exciting young backs in redshirt freshman Dilin Jones and sophomore Darrion Dupree, and quarterback transfer Billy Edwards Jr. (Maryland) is an upgrade over last year’s signal-callers. If the run game is working, returning receivers Vinny Anthony II and transfers Jayden Ballard (Ohio State) and Dekel Crowdus (Hawai’i) could be fun deep threats.
The Badgers slipped to 22nd in defensive SP+ last season — pretty good, but their worst ranking in 14 years. They were 102nd in rushing success rate, and the front six returns only two starters and welcomes eight transfers; if there’s an Achilles heel, it’s again up front. But at least three starting DBs return from a good secondary (corner Nyzier Fourqurean‘s quest for eligibility isn’t looking great, and incoming corners Geimere Latimer (Jacksonville State) and D’Yoni Hill (Miami) could help quickly. Fickell also landed maybe my single favorite 2025 transfer: Bethel safety Matt Jung, who combined 10.5 TFLs with 20 passes defended last season. Yes, it was Division III, but I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that combination. Jung also caught a 69-yard touchdown pass. And had an 82-yard kickoff return. And scored five defensive touchdowns. And he’s 6-foot-3, 215 pounds! I’ll be heartbroken if he’s not an immediate star.
But I digress. The secondary should be awesome, and the run game could be too. But between the offensive collapse and a ridiculous schedule featuring four projected top-10 opponents in a seven-week span, this is the least optimistic I’ve felt about Wisconsin in a while. Prove me wrong, Badgers.
Head coach: DeShaun Foster (second year, 5-7 overall)
2025 projection: 51st in SP+, 5.2 average wins (3.3 in the Big Ten)
UCLA began 2024 horribly in alumnus Foster’s first season, barely beating Hawai’i, then losing five straight. But starting with a respectable Week 6 performance at Penn State, the Bruins figured some things out. They overachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 10.7 points in their last eight games and won four of their last six. They finished the season a genuinely intriguing team.
None of this matters because Foster has an almost completely different team. The defense was responsible for a lot of that overachievement, but only two of 15 players with 200-plus snaps return, and Foster added 15 transfers. The offense discovered a decent, efficient passing game but lost quarterback Ethan Garbers and most of his skill corps. Foster brought in App State quarterback Joey Aguilar for the spring, then basically traded him to Tennessee for Nico Iamaleava.
New coordinator Tino Sunseri was part of the Great Indiana Revival, and while Iamaleava takes a while to throw and takes a lot of hits because of it, he still has a five-star arm and solid rushing ability. That’s a pretty good start on offense. Plus, running back Jaivian Thomas (Cal) averaged 6.3 yards per carry, and receiver Kaedin Robinson (App State) averaged an excellent 2.5 yards per route. The line was poor, but it’s experienced and has four new transfers, at least. It doesn’t feel as if there’s enough depth here, but improvement over last year’s No. 103 offensive SP+ ranking is likely.
I liked how defensive coordinator Ikaika Malloe problem-solved his way to improvement last year, but I have no idea what to expect from this defense. Foster is hoping that quantity produces quality with 10 new DB transfers, though from a statistical standpoint only nickel Benjamin Perry (Louisville) and maybe corners Jamier Johnson (Indiana) and Andre Jordan Jr. (Oregon State) stand out. The front six has solid size but only one player who produced even five TFLs last year: sophomore linebacker Isaiah Chisom (Oregon State).
It’s like a second first year for Foster. The Bruins will have about 18 new starters and will face seven projected top-40 opponents. Just hope for another year with late-season improvement, I guess.
Just looking for a path to 6-6
Head coach: Mike Locksley (seventh year, 33-41 overall)
2025 projection: 70th in SP+, 5.1 average wins (2.5 in the Big Ten)
In 2024’s “The Price: What It Takes to Win in College Football’s Era of Chaos,” authors Armen Keteyan and John Talty talked to Maryland’s Locksley about his school jockeying for position in this new paying-the-players world. Locksley compared his Terps to Macy’s, trying to keep both the higher-end “Saks Fifth Avenues of college football” from plucking away his best talent and the discount stores from taking away his young backups. “I’m getting eaten from both ends, and that’s why you don’t see f—ing Macy’s very much anymore,” he said.
I thought about that quote a lot as Maryland got absolutely wrecked by the portal this offseason, losing starters and key contributors to Arkansas, Auburn, Colorado, Indiana, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Texas, UAB (really?) and Wisconsin, and losing backups to Coastal Carolina, East Carolina, Fresno State, Georgia State, James Madison, Sacramento State, Sam Houston and UCF. Maryland had already suffered a disastrous 2024 season, collapsing to 4-8 and 86th in SP+, then got hit harder by spring attrition than almost any power conference program. The Terps are 107th in returning production and looking at only about a one-in-three chance of bowling this fall. Locksley had engineered three straight winning seasons and two top-30 SP+ finishes, but it feels as if he’s starting from scratch in Year 7.
There’s almost no choice but to go with a full youth movement in 2025, but it could bear decent fruit. Blue-chip freshman Malik Washington could start at quarterback next to sophomore running back (and yards-after-contact machine) Nolan Ray and behind a line that might feature only one or two seniors. The defense has quite a few exciting sophomores — edge rushers Neeo Avery and Trey Reddick, transfer tackles Joel Starlings (North Carolina) and Eyan Thomas (Saint Francis), cornerback La’Khi Roland — and blue-chip freshmen such as end Zahir Mathis could quickly play a role.
Forced to go young, Locksley could find he has a pretty exciting roster corps. But that might not help him much in 2025, and he’ll then have to hold on to that roster corps in 2026. That certainly proved difficult this past offseason.
Head coach: Jonathan Smith (second year, 5-7 overall)
2025 projection: 64th in SP+, 4.7 average wins (2.3 in the Big Ten)
Michigan State basically pulled a “reverse UCLA” in Smith’s first season. The Spartans were 4-3 after a 32-20 win over Iowa, as sophomore Aidan Chiles damaged a Hawkeyes defense that usually makes the lives of young quarterbacks hell. But it was almost all downhill from there. MSU topped 17 points only once in its final five games and beat only Purdue (and by only seven points).
Chiles is a very dangerous scrambler, but he took at least two sacks in 10 of 12 games, and he threw over half of his 11 interceptions when State’s in-game win probability (per FPI) was between 30 and 70%, meaning they were particularly costly.
I doubt it takes Smith until Year 4 to get going at MSU the way it did at Oregon State, but I’d be surprised if it happened in Year 2. Chiles’ development remains in process, and he’ll have a mostly new skill corps around him. Sophomore receiver Nick Marsh and tight end Jack Velling are solid, and Smith added fun lower-level transfers such as running back Elijah Tau-Tolliver (Sacramento State) and receivers Omari Kelly (Middle Tennessee), Chrishon McCray (Kent State) and Rodney Bullard Jr. (Valdosta State). The offense will undoubtedly improve after ranking 119th in offensive SP+, but there’s a mountain to climb back to mediocrity.
Joe Rossi’s defense should maintain a top-50 level. The Spartans were good against the run and return four of their top six linemen, plus a strong transfer in Grady Kelly (Florida State). The top three linebackers and three starters in the secondary are gone, but Smith loaded up with portal options, including four OLBs and four cornerbacks. David Santiago (Air Force) might be the surest of the new OLBs, and Joshua Eaton (Texas State) and NiJhay Burt (Eastern Illinois) could both have high value at corner. The defense will carry as much weight as it can, but a schedule with five top-30 opponents won’t offer much room for error.
Head coach: David Braun (third year, 12-13 overall)
2025 projection: 87th in SP+, 3.7 average wins (1.7 in the Big Ten)
Over the past 10 years, Northwestern ranked in the defensive SP+ top 25 seven times and went 54-33 in those seasons. In the other three, they went 8-28. They haven’t had a truly poor defense in ages, but when you haven’t even had a top-80 offense since 2018, success is all on the defense.
Utilizing the portal at a tough-admissions school is always going to be tricky, but Braun landed upgrades for at least four offensive positions: quarterback (SMU’s Preston Stone), receiver (South Dakota State’s Griffin Wilde), tackle (Liberty’s Xavior Gray) and guard (South Dakota State’s Evan Beerntsen). Well, Stone will be an upgrade as long as he rediscovers his 2023 form. He threw for 3,197 yards with a 28-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio that year but struggled early in 2024 and was benched for Kevin Jennings. He’s an interesting combination of aggressive (15.1 yards per completion for his career) and safe (eight career INTs), but he can be inefficient. If the line improves, returning backs Cam Porter and Joseph Himon II could at least keep Stone in favorable downs and distances. And hey, the bar couldn’t be lower. Pilot a top-75 offense, and you’ll look like a savior.
The Wildcats slipped to 51st in defensive SP+ last season, though that includes some pretty demoralizing late-season results. They still started (31st in three-and-out rate) and ended drives well (31st in red zone TD rate allowed), and they’ll have some proven entities in linebacker Mac Uihlein, end Aidan Hubbard and tackle Najee Story. The portal brought the likes of linebacker Jack Sadowsky V (Iowa State) and well-traveled corner Fred Davis (Clemson/UCF/Jacksonville State). If Northwestern’s success is again dependent on having a top-20 defense, disappointment probably awaits. But if the O genuinely improves and the D has to be only top 40 or so, the Wildcats could surprise. Either way, facing Oregon, Penn State, Michigan and Illinois will make reaching six wins awfully difficult.
Head coach: Barry Odom (first year)
2025 projection: 101st in SP+, 2.9 average wins (1.2 in the Big Ten)
When the bottom falls out at Purdue, the bottom falls out. The Boilermakers won only nine games in four years under Darrell Hazell (2013-16), and after winning 17 games in 2021-22 under Louisville-bound Jeff Brohm, they fell to 4-8 and 90th under Ryan Walters in 2023, then 1-11 and 121st in 2024. A power conference team should never be as bad as Purdue was last season.
When you need a fixer, you call Odom. In 2023, Odom took over at UNLV, a school that had one winning season in 22 years, and immediately flipped a good portion of the roster and won nine games. The next year, he leaned further on the portal and won 11. Few have proved they can handle a low-continuity roster better.
Needless to say, the Purdue roster has been gutted: more than 50 transfers out, more than 50 in. Odom grabbed transfers of all varieties, from guys who followed him from UNLV (like left tackle Jalen St. John, edge rusher Mani Powell and corner Tony Grimes) to power-program backups moving down the ladder (like Georgia receiver Nitro Tuggle and Michigan defensive end Breeon Ishmail) to smaller-school stars moving up (like Indiana State offensive tackle Jude McCoskey, Fort Valley State defensive tackle Josh Burney and Tennessee State linebacker Sanders Ellis). Running back Devin Mockobee will be the only major 2024 contributor still in the lineup in 2025. The starting QB job could go to Ryan Browne, Bennett Meredith, Malachi Singleton (Arkansas) or Evans Chuba (Washington State) — I really have no idea, and I’m not sure Odom does either.
If Purdue goes 9-4 this year the way UNLV did in Year 1, I’m naming Odom the Coach of the Decade already. If the Boilers improve in October and November and finish 4-8 or so, that would be exciting in its own right.
The baseball world gathered in Atlanta for the 2025 MLB draft, Home Run Derby and All-Star Game this week, and our baseball reporters were there talking to execs, coaches, agents, scouts, players and other team sources.
While fans are focused on the excitement on the field, behind the scenes, it’s a great time to collect intel on what teams are thinking with the MLB trade deadline fast approaching and get the pulse of the sport on the topics dominating the season.
Our reporters emptied their notebooks with the latest news and rumors. Who are the big names to watch at the trade deadline (July 31 at 6 p.m. ET)? What’s the latest buzz on the biggest free agent? And which teams and storylines will rule the second half? Here’s everything we heard during the festivities in Atlanta.
Who will be the biggest name to move at the MLB trade deadline?
Jeff Passan: Now that Boston is firmly in playoff contention, Alex Bregman is almost certainly off the table. With Milwaukee cruising, Freddy Peralta would no longer seem to be part of an add-subtract plan for the Brewers. Which leaves the biggest name as … the guy with the worst ERA in MLB among all pitchers with at least 90 innings. And yet Sandy Alcantara, he of the 7.22 ERA, remains a target for teams thanks to the quality of his stuff and paucity of big available names.
Some teams see Alcantara’s contract as too big an impediment and complain that the Miami Marlins want too much in return for him. That’s fine. Teams are twitchy. They crave upside. With the deadline creeping ever closer, the prospect of a team surveying the starting-pitching landscape and being willing to give up real talent for Alcantara’s upside is tangible. Perhaps Alcantara is packaged with another Marlin to give the acquiring club a modicum of stability amid questions of whether the former NL Cy Young winner can be fixed.
Buster Olney: The Arizona Diamondbacks have indicated to other teams that they will probably be dealers — and assuming that’s how it plays out, they will be a central player leading up to this year’s trade deadline. All-Star third baseman Eugenio Suarez will likely be the most coveted position player moved before the deadline, with the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees (and perhaps other clubs) pursuing him. First baseman Josh Naylor is having a good season, hitting .294 with 11 homers, and is an experienced run producer who might fit the San Francisco Giants or Mariners.
The Minnesota Twins also could play into this question. A lot of the deals this time of year are for relievers, and the perception of other teams is that Minnesota could be a primary source with a lot to offer — hard-throwing closer Jhoan Duran, left-hander Danny Coulombe or setup man Griffin Jax. One rival executive believes that All-Star starter Joe Ryan will be moved before the deadline, but two others disagree, saying that their perception is that the Twins would have to be overwhelmed to part with the right-hander.
It’s been an up-and-down July for the two N.Y. teams: What are the Yankees and Mets most likely to do at the deadline?
Jorge Castillo: Brian Cashman was about as transparent as a front office executive dares in the week entering the All-Star break: “We’re going to go to town. We’re going to do everything we possibly can to improve ourselves and try to match up.” He also made his objectives plain. The Yankees will prioritize pitching, first in the rotation then in the bullpen with a reliever or two, followed by an infielder, preferably a third baseman to upgrade over Oswald Peraza. Checking off all those boxes will not be simple, but Cashman appears willing to operate aggressively to tangibly bolster the roster and give the Yankees a real shot to return to the World Series — and not waste another magnificent Aaron Judge season. That could mean making everyone in the farm system besides top prospect George Lombard Jr. available.
As for the Mets, the bullpen is atop the checklist, and adding a starter and center fielder is possible. The relief corps has faced two obstacles: Injuries and heavy usage caused by the rotation ranking 22nd in the majors in innings pitched. All-Star closer Edwin Diaz was consistently dominant, but other pillars, including Reed Garrett (39 appearances), Ryne Stanek (37) and Huascar Brazobán (39), have stumbled in spots. Injuries have decimated the rotation — Griffin Canning (Achilles) is out for the season, and Tylor Megill (elbow) and Paul Blackburn (shoulder) are on the injured list — but the need for a starter could be mitigated if Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga return to their usual forms after each was activated from the injured list the final weekend before the All-Star break. Otherwise, center field is an obvious position to upgrade if David Stearns finds a price he’s comfortable paying.
Jesse Rogers: There isn’t much mystery to the Yankees. Brian Cashman could use a reliever and a third baseman followed by starting pitching coming in third among his needs. If Suarez isn’t traded or is too expensive, then Colorado Rockies infielder Ryan McMahon is another possibility. Meanwhile, the Mets aren’t getting much production out of center field, making Luis Robert Jr an intriguing fit. The Mets are also looking for bullpen help, considering their injuries on the mound.
Olney: The Mets’ rotation could be in its best state in the coming weeks, with Sean Manaea now back, so they probably wouldn’t make a deal for starting pitching depth. But if there’s a trade to be made for someone who could start the first three games of a postseason series (which is the way that some evaluators distinguish starting pitchers at this time of year), the Mets could be interested in someone like Merrill Kelly or Zac Gallen, who could be two of the best starting pitchers moved before the deadline.
One evaluator believes that Kansas City Royals starter Seth Lugo (who started his career with the Mets) is a natural target for the Mets or Yankees, as they’re both big-market teams with resources to burn and a potential willingness to overpay.
However, rival execs say the hallmark of president of baseball operations David Stearns’ work is that he won’t overpay early, but rather, he will wait for something more reasonable to emerge. “In the end,” said one executive with another team, “he’ll make multiple trades that improve the team — deals that might not be the splashiest, but good deals.”
The Mets will track the center-field options closely, with that position being the most obvious spot to upgrade. Could Baltimore’s Cedric Mullins represent an upgrade? The White Sox’s Luis Robert Jr.? Is Boston’s Jarren Duran actually available? These are questions to be answered in the Mets’ front office.
Which contenders will go really big at the deadline?
Passan: The Chicago Cubs need a starting pitcher. And while other teams’ needs are more urgent — the Phillies’ bullpen, third base for the Yankees and plenty more — the Cubs are in an extremely strong position.
They have the best run differential in baseball and the third-easiest schedule for the remainder of the season. Home-field advantage is within reach. The Cubs need a starter for innings, sure, but more than that because their playoff rotation at the moment has a gaping hole. Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd have pitched their way into two spots, but Chicago needs a similar caliber starter who it simply doesn’t have at the moment.
Alden Gonzalez: The Phillies have championship hopes, an aging core, an ultra-aggressive front office and a clear need ahead of the trade deadline: bullpen help. Phillies relievers combined for a 4.38 ERA heading into the All-Star break, tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the seventh-highest mark in the major leagues.
Rival executives expect those two teams to be among the most aggressive in pursuit of high-leverage arms over these next few weeks.
Another team to watch is the Toronto Blue Jays, who surged to the top of the American League East with 25 wins in their last 38 games before the break. They didn’t lavish Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with $500 million for nothing. They’ll do whatever it takes to augment the group around him.
Olney: There are a couple more interesting teams to watch. The Mariners’ focus is on adding offense at first and third base. They had almost no payroll flexibility over the most recent offseason, but the perception is that they will have money to spend at this year’s deadline — and might prefer to take on some payroll rather than overpay in prospect capital. The Mariners, with a good farm system, would seem to have a lot of common denominators for deal-making with the Diamondbacks.
The Rays are typically one of the more creative clubs at the deadline, sometimes acquiring talent and sometimes trading it away — and sometimes doing both. But news broke in recent days that the sale of the franchise is moving forward, and there is a perception in other front offices that the Rays might be given the freedom (a wink-wink from incoming ownership) to be more aggressive than usual and spend money. But they have to play better to justify a move like that.
What’s the latest on Kyle Tucker’s free agency?
Rogers: It’s quiet. Very quiet. His current team — the Cubs — is likely to come to him with a good offer at some point, but it probably won’t be for max dollars. Then he’ll likely hear from the big boys in free agency (minus the Mets, who signed Juan Soto last offseason). From there, he will have a decision: Sign back up in Chicago where he looks comfortable or hit one of the coasts for the next megadeal. He could always keep a Cubs offer in his back pocket and circle back to them. One thing he has going for him: Cubs fans want him back.
The team to beat in each league right now is …?
Gonzalez: The Dodgers, even still, for one clear reason: They entered the All-Star break with the National League’s best record, and their best baseball might still be in front of them. Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts have not hit to their capabilities. Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow are just now getting healthy again. Shohei Ohtani is in the early stages of being built back up as a starting pitcher.
The Dodgers might not challenge the regular-season wins record, but in the eyes of many throughout the sport, they also haven’t done anything to make one believe they can’t repeat as champions. It will come down to how they upgrade their bullpen and whether they can keep their starting pitchers healthy, something they have proved incapable of doing these past couple of years.
Castillo: Right now, it’s the Tigers — though that could change after the trade deadline. Detroit has the best record in the league with the best pitcher in the league (Tarik Skubal) leading one of the best rotations in the league, though adding a starter is within reason after Jackson Jobe was lost for the season and Alex Cobb still hasn’t thrown a pitch in 2025. The offense, while without that one MVP-level superstar, had three All-Stars and ranks third in the American League with a 110 wRC+.
If there are areas that could use improvement for October, it’s the bullpen and third base. Detroit relievers rank 11th in the AL in ERA and sixth in win probability added, and Tigers third basemen have combined for an 86 wRC+ this season. Even without bolstering those areas, the Tigers should run away with the AL Central and could earn home-field advantage throughout the postseason.
What other intel did you hear during All-Star week?
Olney: The Cleveland Guardians are ready to listen to offers for all but four players — third baseman Jose Ramirez, outfielder Steven Kwan and relievers Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith. Everyone else is available, with the Guardians hoping to get maximum value and find more offense.
Rogers: Scouts are keeping a close eye on the Twins because Minnesota could have pitching to move in the coming weeks. The same can’t be said of the Royals, who keep telling folks they aren’t breaking up their team despite a middling record. AL Central teams are in a different position than they were a year ago when the division was up for grabs. Detroit will likely be the only team in the division to add anything of significance.
Olney: The Texas Rangers are among this deadline’s mystery teams — it’s unclear whether they are dealing or acquiring. “I think what they do coming out of the All-Star break is going to be really important,” one evaluator said. If the Rangers do decide to trade away talent, however, they could make some more measured moves. Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi are not considered to be in play, at least by some other teams; Adolis Garcia, on the other hand, could be.
Castillo: The Rockies, potentially breaking from previous years, are listening to calls and ready to make moves, according to a person with knowledge of the situation. They have big league talent to offer contenders. Third baseman Ryan McMahon, starters German Marquez and Austin Gomber, and reliever Jake Bird could all impact playoff races.
Colorado’s insular front office in recent years has traded fewer major leaguers than you’d expect from an organization in its position — without a playoff berth since 2018, on pace for the worst season ever and with a farm system that ranks in the bottom half in most public rankings — but that could change this month.
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