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With AI hype dominating the stock market, you can probably guess and guess correctly that this years top-performing global stock sector is tech. But which sector has come in just a whisker behind it?

Call, text, email or otherwise message your broker: Its a funny index thats barely six years old called Communication Services.

Never heard of it? You arent alone. So what is it, and does it have staying power?
Communication Services mashes growthy, tech-like firms with traditional media and stodgy old telecoms a tale of diverging industries.

Its predecessor was the telecom sector classically defensive, highly regulated, boring, slow-growers. Their steady revenues, big dividends and low volatility make them pretty darned economically insensitive.

Hence, they lead in down markets. Consider: S&P 500 telecom stocks beat the broader index in four of five bear markets since 1990. The exception, 2000 2002, was when fantasies like WorldCom, Global Crossing and Lucent fantastically imploded.

But stodginess cuts both ways. Telecom lagged in four of the last five bull marketshugely. The average underperformance? A whopping 128%. Since October 2022s low, S&P 500 and World Telecom returns are less than half the broader indexes gain.

In 2018, however, index providers S&P and MSCI did some rejiggering maybe a little too quietly that shook up how investors can approach many of these companies.

Namely, they concluded several Silicon Valley giants didnt belong in tech anymore. They were 21st Century takes on communications, profiting more on ads than hardware and software. Their solution?

Combining several tech giants with media companies and defensive telecoms in a new Communication Services sector.

Communications is no longer just about phone lines, wired or wireless. Its also search engines, social media, streaming and online commerce. The old telecom industry is now just 17% of the new sectors market cap globally, lower still in America.

Meanwhile, the Interactive Media & Services industry dominates, comprising 62% of the sector globally. Nearly all of that is American almost 99%. You know the big names Meta and Google parent Alphabet.

But it also includes online recruiting, web-based auto selling and buying firms, and more.

Communication Services also includes the entertainment industry, 15% of market cap home to big streaming and gaming firms (also tech-like!). The other 7% is media cable providers, TV networks and advertisers.

Hence, large parts of this diverse sector act like tech: low-to-no dividends, low barriers to entry, fat gross operating profit margins (GOPMs in accounting lingo), big reinvestment in innovation, buzzy offerings and huge growth.

These tech-like tendencies juice returns in bull marketsincluding 2024s. Hence, the MSCI World Communication Services 19.3% overall return, powered by Interactive Media & Services 29.9% surge. That tops techs 25.5% and cruises past world stocks overall 11.4%.

The sectors entertainment firms are up 14.1%, too. But its telecom segments languish: Wireless and Diversified Telecoms are up just 7.9% and 2.2%, respectively. All parallel trends date to this bull markets October 2022 birth.

Few saw that coming just the opposite, after tech-like Communication Services stocks got whacked in 2022. But sentiment got too sour. Markets looked forward and saw a brighter reality ahead, fueling a rally.

Stocks presciently pre-priced the sectors 46.3% first-quarter profit rebound.

So, can Communication Services keep leading? Yes and no. Telecoms shouldnt lead until the next downturn. While the bull market charges, the sectors tech-like chunk should shine as corporations are toggling to offense after two years of cost-cutting defensive maneuvers. Their enviable GOPMs (see above) enable them to self-finance growth, rendering interest rates feckless. The advertising market, central to many of these firms, should reheat, too.

Bottom line: Diversify across the offensive industries. Go light on the defensive ones.

Ken Fisher is the founder and executive chairman of Fisher Investments, a four-time New York Times bestselling author, and regular columnist in 21 countries globally.

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Business

Carlyle joins list of possible Thames Water rescue backers

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Carlyle joins list of possible Thames Water rescue backers

Carlyle, the American investment giant, has become the latest global fund to weigh an investment in Thames Water as the stricken utility races to avoid being nationalised.

Sky News has learnt that Carlyle, which has roughly $435bn in assets under management, is at the very preliminary stages of assessing whether an investment in Thames Water Utilities Limited (TWUL) would be viable.

Britain’s biggest water and wastewater company, which has about 16 million customers, is edging towards the brink of collapse after warning in recent days that its financial liquidity is set to expire months earlier than previously anticipated.

It has also seen its credit rating downgraded further into junk territory by two leading rating agencies.

Carlyle is one of a long list of prospective investors approached by Rothschild, the investment bank advising Thames Water’s board, as the utility scrambles to raise more than £3bn in the coming months.

This weekend, people close to the process confirmed that Carlyle had been approached but said it was “too early” to judge whether the firm might participate in a rescue deal through one or more of its funds.

Among the others sounded out by Rothschild are Brookfield, the Canadian investment giant, and Global Infrastructure Partners, which is now owned by BlackRock.

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Many investors and industry analysts believe, however, that the Rothschild-led process is destined to fail given the massive financial restructuring which faces Thames Water.

The company has about £16bn in debt, with approximately £10bn of that accounted for by a group of 90 funds which have appointed Jefferies and Akin Gump to represent them.

That syndicate is now preparing its own rescue plan in the coming weeks, which is likely to include an enormous debt-for-equity swap that would wipe out the existing shareholders.

Thames Water’s future remains so shrouded in uncertainty because the industry watchdog, Ofwat, has rejected the company’s initial spending plans for the next five-year regulatory period.

The company is now engaged in discussions with Ofwat ahead of its final determination in December.

A bridging loan of about £1bn is being contemplated by some of Thames Water’s creditors, but some stakeholders remain sceptical that any new financing will be forthcoming without greater regulatory certainty.

“Until the lenders know what they are bridging to, the concern deepens that they risk throwing good money after bad,” said one fund.

TWUL’s board is said to have met in the last 48 hours to discuss the implications of its latest rating downgrades and impending liquidity shortfall.

One creditor said that Ofwat was expected to appoint an independent monitor next week to scrutinise the company’s progress against its turnaround plan.

Ofwat, which signalled in August that it would make such an appointment, declined to comment.

If new investment into Thames Water is not forthcoming before it runs out of cash, the government will have little choice but to sanction the temporary nationalisation of the company.

This would be done through a Special Administration Regime (SAR), a procedure tested only once before when Bulb Energy collapsed in 2021.

As part of its contingency planning for implementing a far-reaching restructuring, Thames Water has booked court dates in November to progress a rescue deal.

A source close to the company said that Thames Water “continues to look at all options for extending its liquidity and raising new equity”.

“Reserving court dates is sensible forward planning and a part of keeping all options open.”

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Politics

CZ walks free, Caroline Ellison receives prison sentence, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Sept. 22 – 28

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CZ walks free, Caroline Ellison receives prison sentence, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Sept. 22 – 28

Binance founder CZ walks free, former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison sentenced to two years, and more: Hodlers Digest

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Politics

Canterbury MP Rosie Duffield quits Labour – criticising Sir Keir Starmer in resignation letter

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Canterbury MP Rosie Duffield quits Labour - criticising Sir Keir Starmer in resignation letter

Canterbury MP Rosie Duffield has resigned from the Labour Party.

The 53-year-old MP is the first to jump ship since the general election and in her resignation letter criticised the prime minister for accepting thousands of pounds worth of gifts.

She told Sir Keir Starmer the reason for leaving now is “the programme of policies you seem determined to stick to”, despite their unpopularity with the electorate and MPs.

In her letter she accused the prime minister and his top team of “sleaze, nepotism and apparent avarice” which are “off the scale”.

“I’m so ashamed of what you and your inner circle have done to tarnish and humiliate our once proud party,” she said.

Rosie Duffield. Pic: UK Parliament/Jessica Taylor/Handout via Reuters
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Rosie Duffield. Pic: UK Parliament/Jessica Taylor/Handout via Reuters

Sir Keir has faced backlash after a Sky News report revealed he had received substantially more freebies than any other MP since becoming Labour leader.

Since December 2019, the prime minister received £107,145 in gifts, benefits, and hospitality – a specific category in parliament’s register of MPs’ interests.

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Ms Duffield, who has previously clashed with the prime minister on gender issues, attacked the government for pursuing “cruel and unnecessary” policies as she resigned the Labour whip.

Read more:
The Westminster Accounts:
Check how much your MP has received

She criticised the decision to keep the two-child benefit cap and means-test the winter fuel payment, and accused the prime minister of “hypocrisy” over his acceptance of free gifts from donors.

“Since the change of government in July, the revelations of hypocrisy have been staggering and increasingly outrageous,” she said.

“I cannot put into words how angry I and my colleagues are at your total lack of understanding about how you have made us all appear.”

Ms Duffield also mentioned the recent “treatment of Diane Abbott”, who said she thought she had been barred from standing by Labour ahead of the general election, before Sir Keir said she would be allowed to defend her Hackney North and Stoke Newington seat for the party.

Her relationship with the Labour leadership has long been strained and her decision to quit the party comes after seven other Labour MPs were suspended for rebelling by voting for a motion calling for the two-child benefit cap to be abolished.

“Someone with far-above-average wealth choosing to keep the Conservatives’ two-child limit to benefit payments which entrenches children in poverty, while inexplicably accepting expensive personal gifts of designer suits and glasses costing more than most of those people can grasp – this is entirely undeserving of holding the title of Labour prime minister,” she said.

Ms Duffield said she will continue to represent her constituents as an independent MP, “guided by my core Labour values”.

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