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After Rivian (RIVN) stock earned a big buy rating on Tuesday, shares traded up nearly 9% as investors look for the EV maker to break even. A new analyst sees at least 50% upside for Rivian’s stock price with a “credible path” to breakeven gross margins.

Rivian has a “credible path” to breakeven: Analyst

On Tuesday, Guggenheim analyst Ronald Jewsikow initiated a buy rating for Rivian stock, setting an $18 price target.

In a note to investors, Jewsikow said, “We see a credible path to breakeven gross margins” in Q4 2024.

The comments mirror those of Rivian’s CEO, RJ Scaringe. After a planned shutdown at its Normal, IL plant in April, Scaringe said the company “introduced a dramatic cost reduction in material costs.”

During a factory visit this week, Rivian told Reuters that upgrades earlier this year resulted in a 35% material cost reduction for its vans. The latest upgrades have savings of a “similar magnitude” for its R1S and R1T models.

Rivian has cut out 100 steps from the battery-making process, 52 pieces of equipment from the body shop, and over 500 parts from the design.

Rivian-costs
Production at Rivian’s Normal, IL plant (Source: Rivian)

The path to profitability

Rivian’s gross vehicle margins have improved drastically over the years. After losing $139,277 for every vehicle built in Q3 2022, Rivian lost around $39,000 per EV in the first three months of 2024.

Although that number is down from the over $43,000 loss per vehicle in Q4 2023, it’s still up from the $32,600 and $30,500 loss in Q2 and Q3 2023, respectively.

Q3 ’22 Q4 ’22 Q1 ’23 Q2 ’23 Q3 ’23 Q4 ’23 Q1 ’24
Rivian loss per vehicle $139,277 $124,162 $67,329 $32,594 $30,500 $43,372 $38,784
Rivian loss per vehicle by quarter

Rivian is projecting its first positive gross profit in the fourth quarter of this year. Jewsikow sees Rivian’s recent plant upgrades and supplier negotiations as key to reaching positive gross profit.

After 2024, Jewskikow expects Rivian to generate positive EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) in 2026 when Rivian launches its next-gen EVs.

Rivian-R2-design
Rivian R2 (Source: Rivian)

Rivian revealed the smaller, more affordable R2 in March, which will start at $45,000. The R2 is expected to greatly expand Rivian’s market after it earned over 68,000 reservations in under 24 hours.

The R2 will be made in Normal, starting in early 2026. Although production was initially planned to begin at its new Georgia facility, the move saves $2.25 billion and will get R2 on the market quicker.

Rivian’s R2 is expected to account for 155,000 of the 215,000 future annual capacity at the plant.

Rivian-credible-path
Rivian stock chart over the past 12 months (Source: TradingView)

Rivian stock was up nearly 9% on Tuesday following the news. Rivian’s shares are still down 43% in 2024 and 11% over the past 12 months.

Update: Rivian stock surges after hours following an announcement that Volkswagen will invest up to $5 billion into Rivian to form a joint venture for next-gen EVs

Source: Barrons

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U.S. Steel shares rally as Trump approves Nippon takeover with unique government ‘golden share’

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U.S. Steel shares rally as Trump approves Nippon takeover with unique government 'golden share'

U.S. President Donald Trump walks as workers react at U.S. Steel Corporation–Irvin Works in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, U.S., May 30, 2025.

Leah Millis | Reuters

U.S. Steel shares jumped on Monday after President Donald Trump approved its controversial merger with Japan’s Nippon Steel.

U.S. Steel shares were last up about 5% in premarket trading.

Trump issued an executive order on Friday that allowed U.S. Steel and Nippon to finalize their merger so long as they signed a national security agreement with the U.S. government. The companies said they signed the agreement with the government, completing the final hurdle for the deal.

U.S. Steel said the national security agreement includes a golden share for the U.S .government, without specifying what powers the government would wield with its share. Trump said on Thursday that the golden share gives the U.S. president “total control.”

Typically, golden shares allow the holder veto power over important decisions the company makes. Pennsylvania Sen. Dave McCormick told CNBC in May that the golden share will give the U.S. government control of several board seats and ensure production levels aren’t cut.

Trump has avoided calling the transaction a merger, describing the deal instead as a “partnership.” U.S. Steel confirmed in a regulatory filing Monday that the company will become a wholly owned subsidiary of Nippon Steel North America.

“All regulatory approvals required for the completion of the Transaction have been received,” U.S. Steel said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday. “The Transaction remains subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions, and is expected to be completed promptly.”

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Israel vows Iran will ‘pay the price’ as attacks continue for a fourth day

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Israel vows Iran will 'pay the price' as attacks continue for a fourth day

Trails of Iranian ballistic missiles light up the night sky as seen from Gaza City during renewed missile strikes launched by Iran in retaliation against Israel on June 15, 2025.

Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images

Tehran will “pay the price” for its fresh missile onslaught against Israel, the Jewish state’s defense minister warned Monday, as markets braced for a fourth day of ramped-up conflict between the regional powers.

Fire exchanges have continued since Israel’s Friday attack against Iran, with Iranian media reporting Tehran’s latest strikes hit Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Haifa, home to a major refinery. CNBC has reached out to operator Bazan for comment on the state of operations at the Haifa plant, amid reports of damage to Israel’s energy infrastructure.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said overnight it deployed “innovative methods” that “disrupted the enemy’s multi-layered defense systems, to the point that the Zionist air defense systems engaged in targeting each other,” according to a statement obtained by NBC News.

Israel has widely depended on its highly efficient Iron Dome missile defense system to fend off attacks throughout regional conflicts — but even it can be overwhelmed if a large number of projectiles are fired.

Tankers depicted in the Strait of Hormuz — a strategically important waterway which separates Iran, Oman and the United Arab Emirates.

Why Iran won’t block the Hormuz Strait oil artery even as war with Israel looms

The fresh hostilities are front-of-mind for investors, who have been weighing the odds of further escalation in the conflict and spillover into the broader oil-rich Middle East, amid concerns over crude supplies and the key shipping lane through the Strait of Hormuz connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

Oil prices retained the gains of recent days and at 09:19 a.m. London time, Ice Brent futures with August delivery were trading at $73.81 per barrel, down 0.57% from the previous trading session. The Nymex WTI contract with July expiry was at $72.7 per barrel, 0.38% lower.

Elsewhere, however, markets showed initial signs of shrugging off the latest hostilities early on Monday.

Spot prices for key safe-haven asset gold retreated early morning, down 0.42% to $3,417.83 per ounce after nearly notching a two-year-high earlier in the session, with U.S. gold futures also down 0.65% to $ 3,430.5

Tel Aviv share indices pointed higher, with the blue-chip TA-35 up 0.99% and the wider TA-125 up 1.33%.

European stock markets opened higher Monday, meanwhile, and U.S. stock futures were also in the green.

Luis Costa, global head of EM sovereign credit at Citigroup Global Markets, signaled the muted reaction could be, in part, attributed to hopes of a brisk resolution to the conflict.

“So markets are obviously, you know, bearing in mind all potential scenarios. There are obviously potentially very bad scenarios in this story,” he told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” on Monday. “But there is still a way out in terms of, you know, a faster resolution and bringing Iran to the table, or a short continuation here, of a very surgical and intense strike by the Israeli army.”

U.S. response in focus

As of Monday morning, Israel’s national emergency service Magen David Adom reported four dead and 87 injured following rocket strikes at four sites in “central Israel,” reporting collapsed buildings, fire and people trapped under debris.

Accusing Tehran of targeting civilians in Israel to prevent the Israel Defense Forces from “continuing the attack that is collapsing its capabilities,” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, a close longtime ally of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said in a Google-translated social media update that “the residents of Tehran will pay the price, and soon.”

The IDF on Sunday said it had in turn “completed a wide-scale wave of strikes on numerous weapon production sites belonging to the Quds Force, the IRGC and the Iranian military, in Tehran.”

CNBC could not independently verify developments on the ground.

The U.S.’ response is now in focus, given its close support and arms provision to Israel, the unexpected cancellation of Washington’s latest nuclear deal talks with Iran, and President Donald Trump’s historically hard-hitting stance against Tehran during his first term.

Trump, who has been pushing Iran for a deal over its nuclear program, has weighed in on the conflict, opposing an Israeli proposal to kill Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to NBC News.

Discussions about the conflict are expected to take place during the ongoing meeting of the G7, encapsulating Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S., along with the European Union.

CNBC’s Katrina Bishop contributed to this report.

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Tesla on ‘self-driving’ gets stuck on train track and hit by train

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Tesla on 'self-driving' gets stuck on train track and hit by train

A Tesla Model 3 got stuck on a train track and was hit, albeit slightly, by a train in Sinking Spring, PA. The driver claimed it was in “self-driving mode.”

According to the fire alerts in Berks County, a Tesla Model 3 drove around a train track barrier near South Hull Street and Columbia Avenue and got stuck in the tracks.

The driver was able to exit the vehicle, but a train hit the car, reportedly snapping off the side mirror.

The fire commissioner ordered to stop all train traffic as the emergency services worked to get the Model 3 off the tracks using a crane.

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Spitlers Garage & Towing, performed the recovery and shared a few pictures on Facebook:

The Tesla driver reportedly claimed that the vehicle was in “self-driving mode” leading up to getting stuck on the train tracks.

Tesla claims that all its vehicles built since 2016 will be capable of unsupervised self-driving with software updates; however, this has yet to occur.

Instead, Tesla has been selling a “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) package for up to $15,000 that requires the driver to constantly supervise the vehicle, with the driver remaining responsible for the car at all times.

Electrek’s Take

There have been instances of Tesla drivers engaging in reckless behavior and then attributing it to the Full Self-Driving (FSD) features.

I’m not saying it’s the case here, but it’s a possibility.

On the other side, I’ve seen FSD try to navigate around construction barriers. It’s possible that it tried to do that in this case, here and then got caught on the tracks.

We would need more data.

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