On top of Rivian’s big VW partnership news today, we also got a look at what some of Rivian’s future plans might include – including some vehicles that we haven’t heard anything about before.
To recap the news, VW will invest up to $5 billion into Rivian and form a joint venture giving VW access to much of Rivian’s electrical and electronic architecture expertise. This will help Rivian with much-needed liquidity as it tries to get costs down and start generating cash flow from vehicle sales, and will help VW with the software issues it has been having in ramping up its EV projects.
To explain the news, Rivian posted a shareholder letter on its website, which is mostly filled with the basic financial details that we saw earlier in press releases.
But it also includes a graphic demonstrating the scalability of Rivian’s software across its platforms, meant to show how Rivian is unifying and simplifying its vehicle control software.
And that graphic has something very interesting – some hidden vehicles that we haven’t heard anything about yet. Have a look:
The obvious ones here are the already-released vehicles, Rivian’s RCV, R1T and R1S. The R1T and R1S are then repeated in column 2, in reference to the newly-released “Gen 2” architecture. This architecture led to a big upgrade in Rivian’s EVs for this model year, cutting lots of cost and complexity.
Then, in column 3, we have the R2 and R3 which Rivian unveiled in March. These will both be built on an architecture Rivian is calling “MSP.”
But despite that we’ve seen these next-gen R1 and MSP vehicles, both columns 2 and 3 have placeholder vehicles under covers.
While these are definitely just placeholder images and could be anything, they are notably a different size/shape than each other, suggesting that the unreleased gen 2 vehicle will be larger than the MSP vehicle.
The gen 2 vehicle could be an upgraded RCV, with more simplified electronics for cost-cutting, but the silhouette doesn’t look right. However, that might be an attempt by Rivian to obfuscate the car’s form, as a van silhouette would be quite obvious.
The unreleased gen 3 vehicle, then, does look lower and smaller than the gen 2. It could indeed be the R3X, but we’ve already seen that one, so it wouldn’t make a lot of sense to put it back under a cover. That said, Rivian was a little more secretive about showing us the interior of the R3X, as compared to the amount of info it gave us about the R2, so it could be the R3X… but wouldn’t it be more fun if it wasn’t?
For one thing, it could potentially be an R2T, a more affordable and smaller truck. While we knew the R2 would come in SUV format, many assumed that Rivian might mention an R2 truck alongside the R2 SUV, given that the company started with a truck to begin with. We didn’t see an R2T at the unveiling, but maybe they’re still working on that. The silhouette under the cover doesn’t look like a truck – but again, that would be a dead giveaway, so it makes sense they’d just use a default image.
Finally, we reach the last column: “affordable mass market.” This, too, is new, and includes three separate vehicle forms. While we’ve already learned not to trust the placeholder images, note that the images are all different, suggesting that there might be a large, medium and small-size vehicle on this eventual platform.
When R2 and R3 were unveiled, many figured that the R3 would likely be lower price than the R2, which Rivian confirmed – but didn’t go any further than that to state a price range. We assumed it would probably be somewhere around the price level of the Volvo EX30 or Chevy Equinox – somewhere in the mid-30s. We figured this was the next step towards mass-market, as it would be lower in price than the R2.
Another category of “affordable mass market” vehicles suggests either that the R3 will be higher in price than we had thought, leaving room in the low-to-mid 30s for a 4th-gen platform, or it suggests that Rivian is working on a ~$25k vehicle to be in the truly affordable mass market range, among the lowest price level offered for new vehicles by most major manufacturers (and in the future dreams of EV makers, like VW’s ~$22k 2027 offering or the fabled $25k Tesla Model 2).
We also don’t know what size those vehicles will be. They may all be “crossover-like” vehicles like those Rivian currently makes and has announced (the R3 sits somewhere between crossover and hot hatch), and the vehicles under the sheets (which, again, we can’t trust) do look to have “Rivian DNA” and may just be photos of the R1, R2 and R3. But perhaps the use of 3 different vehicle sizes suggests that Rivian might be working on a sedan, a compact, a sporty small car, or something along those lines. The company’s first-ever project was a sportscar, after all.
Or maybe it’s nothing at all. We reached out to Rivian about this and were told “it just demonstrates how our software can scale across platforms.”
But if that’s the case, why not use photos of VW vehicles, or why use vehicles that are clearly Rivian-styled rather than generic lumps? Why have a covered vehicle under the Gen 2 column, which presumably wouldn’t be the architecture used by any partnerships (as MSP would likely be ready by the time this VW partnership bears fruit)? So, we still think there’s something here.
A final note is that, while we did know the R2 was coming and saw several leaks in advance of its unveiling, everyone was blindsided by the R3. Similarly, when Rivian first unveiled its R1T in 2018, it was a complete surprise to everyone despite that the automaker had been founded in 2009 and had been working in “stealth mode” since then. So, Rivian does know how to keep secrets, apparently, and your guess is as good as ours as to what’s under those covers.
What do you think Rivian is hiding? Or is it nothing at all? Let us know in the comments.
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Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal
Ahmed Jadallah | Reuters
Saudi state oil giant Aramco reported a 15.4% drop in net profit in the third-quarter on the back of “lower crude oil prices and weakening refining margins,” but maintained a 31.05 billion dividend.
The company reported net income of $27.56 billion in the July-September period, topping a company-provided estimate of $26.9 billion. The print is also a 5% drop from the previous quarter, which came in at $29.1 billion, as lower global oil prices, weaker demand and prolonged OPEC+ production cuts led by Saudi Arabia continue to impact crude prices.
The average selling price of oil for the second quarter of 2024 stood at $85 per barrel, but dropped to $78.7 per barrel during the third quarter, according to Saudi-based bank Al Rajhi capital, as non-OPEC supply volumes grew.
The oil firm said its year-on-year decline was partly offset by a “reduction in selling, administrative and general expenses primarily driven by a gain from derivative instruments, and a decrease in production royalties largely reflecting lower crude oil prices and a lower average effective royalty rate compared to the same quarter last year.”
Aramco’s dividend includes a base payout of $20.3 billion and an atypical performance-linked one of $10.8 billion. The Saudi government and the kingdom’s sovereign wealth vehicle, the Public Investment Fund, are the main beneficiaries of the dividend, holding stakes of roughly 81.5% and 16% in the company.
The remaining shareholding trades freely on Saudi Arabia’s Tadāwul stock exchange, with the company having finalized its second public share offering back in June.
Aramco’s earnings before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) came in at $51.45 billion in the third quarter, down 17% year-on-year. Aramco’s capital expenditure guidance was brought up 20% to $13.23 billion.
The company was trading at 27.45 riyals following the announcement, down 0.18% on the previous day.
The earnings align with a broader trend across oil majors, whose third-quarter profits have also suffered from declines in crude prices and refining margins. Aramco said it achieved average realized crude price of $79.3 per barrel in the third quarter, compared with $89.3 per barrel in the same period of last year.
Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter who produces roughly 9 million barrels per day of crude at present, serves as the de facto leader of the OPEC+ oil producers’ alliance, a subset of whom agreed over the weekend to delay a planned December output hike by one month.
“Aramco delivered robust net income and generated strong free cash flow during the third quarter, despite a lower oil price environment,” CEO Amin Nasser said in a statement. “We also progressed our upstream developments, strengthened our downstream value chain, and advanced our new energies program as we continue to invest through cycles.”
The revenues will be a boon to the Saudi economy, which is currently undergoing a diversification process under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s legacy Vision 2030 scheme spanning a slew of high-cost infrastructure “gigaprojects.”
Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Finance cut the kingdom’s growth forecast to 0.8% in 2024, in a steep decline from a previous projection of 4.4%, and raised the outlook for the national budgetary shortfall to roughly 2.9% of GDP, from a prior indication of 1.9%.
On today’s episode of Quick Charge, Tesla’s Cybertruck is now available in Canada – and, like in the US, there’s no waiting! Plus, we’ve got an “actually” smart summon Tesla that’s actually stuck, GM reaches a sales milestone, and we get a brand-new title sponsor!
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Mobile car care company Yoshi Mobility launched a DC fast charging EV mobile unit that it likens to “a supercharger on wheels.”
November 4, 2024 update: Yoshi Mobility will only be charging EVs on the side of the road now – it announced today that it’s selling its fleet fueling operation to EZFill Holdings (Nasdaq: EZFL).
It was originally founded as a direct-to-consumer, mobile fueling business in 2016, but now it’s going to focus on mobile EV charging, virtual vehicle inspections for partners like Uber and Turo, and onsite preventative maintenance.
Bryan Frist, Yoshi Mobility’s CEO & cofounder, said, “By spinning off our fuel business and focusing all of our energy on solving hair-on-fire problems that fleet owners face, we are meeting the changing needs of enterprise customers while making the future of transportation safer, cleaner, and more sustainable.”
May 22, 2024: Yoshi Mobility saw that its existing customers needed mobile EV charging in places where infrastructure has yet to be installed, so the Nashville-based company decided to bring the mountain to Moses.
“We recognized a demand among our customers for convenient daily charging, reliable private charging networks, and proper charging infrastructure to support their fleet vehicles as they transition to electric,” said Dan Hunter, Yoshi Mobility’s chief EV officer and cofounder.
The company says its 240 kW mobile DC fast charger, which can turn “any EV” into a mobile charging unit, is the first fully electric mobile charger available. It can provide multiple charges in a single trip but doesn’t detail how they charge the DC fast charger or who manufactured it. (I asked for more details, and they replied that they won’t disclose client names or the manufacturer of its DC fast charger yet.)
Yoshi is launching its mobile charger on two GM BrightDrop Zevo 600s and will introduce additional vehicles throughout 2024. It aims for full commercialization by Q1 2025. (I wonder if the Zevo 600 ever charges itself? Yes, I asked that too.)
Yoshi Mobility says it’s already deployed its EV charging solutions to service “major OEMs, autonomous vehicle companies, and rideshare operators” across the US. Its initial customers are made up of large EV operators managing “hundreds” of light-duty vehicles requiring up to 1 megawatt of energy per day that don’t yet have grid-connected EV chargers. I’ve asked Yoshi for details of who it’s working with, and will update if they share that info.
The company says pricing is based on location and enterprise charging needs. Once under contract for service, the service will be deployed to US-based customers within 10 days.
To date, Yoshi Mobility has raised more than $60 million, with investments from GM Ventures, Bridgestone, ExxonMobil, and Y-Combinator in Silicon Valley.
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