Regaining the confidence of British business has been a priority in Sir Keir Starmer’s mission to rehabilitate Labour.
Businesses of course are a disparate bunch, from sole traders and medium-sized enterprises that make up the majority of Britain’s employers, to multinationals that have a choice of markets in which to invest.
They all matter though, because Sir Keir and chancellor-in-waiting Rachel Reeves are counting on the private sector to deliver the economic growth on which their plan to restore public services relies.
Changing sentiment has been a long road.
Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell‘s 2019 election agenda sent a chill down the spines of a community that style themselves as “wealth creators”, but have strong views on how much of that wealth they should hang on to.
A successful charm offensive
Judging by the mood among delegates a week before polling day at the British Chambers of Commerce conference, a charm offensive fought over a thousand working breakfasts has been largely successful.
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In public and private, delegates and speakers are not scared of what a Labour government might mean. Many indeed are enthusiastic about the opportunity to turn the page on years of economic uncertainty, upheaval and occasionally hostility from Conservative administrations.
Amanda Blanc, chief executive of the insurance giant Aviva, bemoaned “an air of weariness and cynicism” hanging over the economy, but said stable policy after the election could unlock investment.
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Dame Amanda Blanc, the chief executive of Aviva, gives her thoughts on the election ahead to Sky’s Ian King.
“They seem thoughtful and sober-minded, a safe pair of hands, I think they come across as reasonable and evidence-based,” said Paul van Zyl, founder of The Conduit, a members club for ‘changemakers’ based in west London.
More than good vibes needed
Kick-starting the economy will take more than good vibes, however.
Many businesses have questions that Labour cannot yet answer and will come under pressure to resolve when governing replaces opposition.
Stability is Labour’s central pitch, delivered by the party’s Jonathan Reynolds, who may be just eight days from throwing off his “shadow” and becoming business secretary for real.
He had familiar messages about how growth would be delivered, from planning reform and skills to investment in the energy transition.
A plan that’s not working – Brexit
More interesting was what he had to say about Brexit, a dog that has not barked in this campaign largely because the main parties have kept it muzzled.
The BCC wants the new government to “stop walking on eggshells” and call out the shortcomings of the existing deal with the EU.
“The current plan isn’t working for our members,” says Shevaun Havilland, its chief executive.
The big business groups all lobbied to remain in 2016, but companies of all sizes have felt the impact of barriers imposed on commerce with the UK’s largest single trading partner.
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Speaking the morning after Sir Keir described the current EU deal as “botched” in his BBC debate with Rishi Sunak, Mr Reynolds said Labour would seek closer alignment on food safety standards and cut red tape for touring musicians.
But he ruled out anything more ambitious, including allowing “youth mobility”, effectively freedom of movement in the UK-EU for younger people.
“Labour will not be seeking to rejoin the single market or the customs union, or to reopen the wounds of the past, because that would not give us the stability which we know is essential,” he said.
That will disappoint but not surprise many who believe the EU offers the most direct route to increasing growth.
Workers rights
There is uncertainty too about what Labour’s plans to improve workers’ rights will mean in practice.
Deputy leader Angela Rayner is leading “a new deal for working people“, including a guarantee of full employment rights, including sick pay and parental leave, from day one of starting a job rather than after the current two years.
Business bristled at that and the plans have been diluted to a starting point for consultation, but Mr Reynolds was challenged over the potential for increased costs.
“It has the potential to land UK employers with significant costs and risk in a world where we face competition from companies that have the choice to employ people here or internationally,” said Sean Ramsden, chief executive of food wholesale Ramsden International.
Mr Reynolds insisted that the changes, central to relations with the trade unions, would hold back recruitment.
They are a reminder though that, if the polls are right, the hard work is about to begin.
Elon Musk is already the world’s richest man, but today he could take a giant step towards becoming the world’s first trillionaire.
Shareholders at Tesla are voting on a pay deal for their chief executive that is unlike anything corporate America has ever seen.
The package would grant Musk, who already has a net worth of more than $400bn, around 425 million shares in the company.
That would net him about $1trn (£760bn) and, perhaps more importantly to Musk, it would tighten his grip on the company by raising his stake from 15% to almost 30%.
The board, which has been making its case to retail investors with a series of videos and digital ads, has a simple message: Tesla is at a turning point.
Image: Musk onstage during an event for Tesla in Shanghai, China. Pic: Reuters
Yes, it wants to sell millions of cars, but it also wants to be a pioneer in robotaxis, AI-driven humanoid robots, and autonomous driving software. At this moment, it needs its visionary leader motivated and fully on board.
Musk has served his warning shot. Late last month, he wrote on X: “Tesla is worth more than all other automotive companies combined. Which of those CEOs would you like to run Tesla? It won’t be me.”
Not everyone is buying it, however.
With so much of his personal wealth tied up in Tesla, would Musk really walk away?
Image: Musk poses after his company’s initial public offering at the NASDAQ market in New York on 29 June 2010. Pic: Reuters
Bad for the brand?
Others see his continued presence and rising influence as a risk. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, which owns 1.1% of the company (making it a top 10 shareholder), has already declared it will vote against the deal. It cited concerns about “the award’s size, dilution, and lack of mitigation of key person risk”.
Several major US pension funds have followed suit. In an open letter published last month, they warned: “The board’s relentless pursuit of keeping its chief executive has damaged Tesla’s reputation.”
They also criticised the board for allowing Musk to pursue other ventures. They said he was overcommitted and distracted as a result. Signatories of that letter included the state treasurers of Nevada, New Mexico, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Colorado, and the comptrollers of Maryland and New York City.
All of them Democrats. Republicans have been more favourable. There is a political slant to this.
The signatories’ concerns with his “other ventures” no doubt include the time Musk spent dabbling in right-wing politics with the Republican inner circle. That made him a polarising figure and, to an extent, Tesla too.
Image: Elon Musk, who’s been close to Donald Trump, boards Air Force One in New Jersey. Pic: Reuters
Pay packet dwarfs rivals
Combine this with a mixed sales performance and a volatile share price, and some are wondering whether the carmaker has lost its way under his leadership.
Irrespective of performance, for some, the existence of billionaires – let alone trillionaires – can never be justified. Some may also ask why Musk is worth so much more than the leaders of Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, or Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company by market capitalisation.
Nvidia‘s chief executive, Jensen Huang, received $49.9m (£37.9m) this fiscal year. So, how has Tesla come up with these numbers? Why is Musk’s pay so out of kilter with the benchmark? Does the company have a corporate governance problem?
The courts have suggested it might. Last year, a Delaware court took the view that Tesla’s board members, which include Musk’s brother Kimbal, were not fully independent when agreeing to a $56bn (£42.6bn) pay packet back in 2017.
Image: Jensen Huang has defended the AI sector. Pic: Reuters
The Delaware Supreme Court is now reviewing the case. It is a reminder that even if Musk meets his targets, a similar fate could befall the current package.
The Tesla board is holding firm, however. Robyn Denholm, the company’s chair, told The New York Times: “He doesn’t get any compensation if he doesn’t deliver,” adding that Musk “does things that further humankind”.
Tesla’s valuation is tied up in its promise to deliver revolutionary AI and robotics products that will change the world. Those ambitions, which include robots that can look after children, are lofty. Some would call them unrealistic, but the board is adamant that if they are to become a reality, only Musk can make it happen.
Under the deal, Musk would receive no salary or cash bonus. Instead, he would collect shares as Tesla’s value grows. To unlock the full package, he would have to increase the current market valuation six times to $8.5trn (£6.47trn). For context, that’s almost twice that of Nvidia.
There are other hurdles. The company would have to sell 20 million additional electric vehicles, achieve 10 million subscriptions to its self-driving software on average over three months, deploy one million robotaxis on average over the same period, sell one million AI-powered robots, and boost adjusted earnings 24-fold to $400bn (£304bn).
They are ambitious targets, but Musk has defied the sceptics before.
The cyber attack on high street department store Marks and Spencer is expected to directly cost roughly £136m.
The figure is only the cost of immediate incident systems response and recovery, as well as specialist legal and professional services support.
Combined with a loss in sales, as the retailer’s online systems were out of action from Easter into the summer, statutory profit before tax at the business has been nearly wiped out for the first half of the year.
This profit measure dropped from £391.9m last year to £3.4m this year. Statutory profit before tax is the official profit figure reported in a company’s financial statements before it paid tax, used for tax and legal purposes.
About £100m is being claimed back in insurance for the cyberattack, M&S said in its market update.
Using a different profit measure – the M&S group’s adjusted profit before tax – the figure is more than half that of a year earlier, down from £413m to £184m.
Sales were hit as online shopping was unavailable from the April attack date until June. Some shelves were also empty in the days after the attack.
When Rachel Reeves said last year (and many times since) that she had no intention of coming back to the British people with yet more tax rises, she meant it.
But now the question ahead of the budget later this month is not so much whether taxes will rise, but which taxes, and by how much? Indeed, there’s growing speculation that the chancellor will be forced to break her manifesto pledge not to raise the rates of income tax, national insurance or VAT.
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Chancellor questioned by Sky News
Her argument, made in her news conference on Tuesday morning, is that she is in this position in large part because of other people’s mistakes, primarily those of the Conservative Party.
But while it’s certainly true that a significant chunk of the likely downgrade to her fiscal position reflects the fact that the “trend growth rate” – the average speed of productivity growth – has dropped in recent years due to all sorts of issues, including Brexit, COVID-19 and the state of the labour market, she certainly bears some responsibility.
A problem that is some of her own making
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First off, she established the fiscal rules against which she is being marked by the Office for Budget Responsibility.
Second, she decided to leave herself only a wafer-thin margin against those rules.
Third, even if it weren’t for the OBR’s productivity downgrade, it’s quite likely the chancellor would have broken those fiscal rules, due to the various U-turns by the government on welfare reforms, winter fuel, and extra giveaways they haven’t yet provided the funding for, such as reversing the two-child benefit cap.
Now, at this stage, no one, save for the Treasury and the Office for Budget Responsibility, really knows the scale of the task facing the chancellor. And in the coming weeks, those numbers could change significantly.
But it’s becoming increasingly clear, from the political signalling if nothing else, that the government is rolling the pitch for bad news later this month.
Indeed, for all that this government pledged to bring an end to austerity, a combination of higher taxes and lower spending will be highly unpopular, not to mention deeply controversial. And while the chancellor will seek to blame her predecessors, it remains to be seen whether the public will be entirely convinced.