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Around three million UK households will see their mortgage repayments rise over the next two years as high interest rates continue to take effect, the Bank of England has said.

As many as 400,000 homes are likely to experience “very large increases” of more than 50%, its financial policy committee said.

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Interest rates have been brought to a near two-decade high of 5.25% in an effort to clamp down on price rises behind the cost of living crisis.

Inflation – the pace of price rises – had been at a 40-year high but now stands at the Bank’s 2% target as the high interest rates made borrowing more expensive and limited spending.

Despite the higher base interest rate set by the Bank, more than a third of mortgage holders (35%) are still paying a mortgage rate of less than 3%, the financial policy committee said on Thursday in its financial stability report.

This is because they signed up for a deal before the energy price shocks which resulted from the war in Ukraine.

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Once those deals come to an end, households will have to sign up to a more expensive product.

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Mortgage rates of 3.5%-4.5% ‘the new normal’

Most mortgage holders, however, have repriced since mortgage rates started the cycle of increases late in 2021.

A typical household rolling off a fixed-rate mortgage before the end of 2026 is due to face a jump of around £180 a month, the report said.

It is the job of the financial policy committee to ensure the UK financial system can handle economic shocks and risks.

The body said UK lenders are still in a strong position to support homes and businesses, even if the economy worsens.

At present, interest rates are expected to come down in the coming months with a cut forecast for August, September, November and December.

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But consumers have been warned not to expect a return to the era of ultra-low interest rates.

The chief executive of the UK’s largest lender Charlie Nunn told Sky News the new normal is mortgage rates of 3.5% to 4.5%.

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General Election 2024: Private school head warns of hit to kids under Labour tax grab

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General Election 2024: Private school head warns of hit to kids under Labour tax grab

Hulme Grammar School in Oldham doesn’t feel like a bastion of privilege, but the children whose parents pay around £15,000 a year for them to attend are nevertheless among an elite minority.

A selective fee-paying school, Hulme is one of around 2,500 independent schools that educate 7% of the school population, a minority that is the target of one of Labour’s few unapologetically tax-raising policies.

If elected, Labour says it will end the VAT exemption on fees, making them subject to 20% tax, raising an estimated £1.6bn the party says will be used to hire 6,500 teachers in the state sector that educates 93% of children.

Private school parents fear the increase will be passed on directly, pricing some children out, while industry bodies claim some schools will close.

Oldham is one of the poorest towns in England and Hulme is one of the country’s more affordable independent schools, its fees around the national average and well short of the £50,000 charged by Eton and the prime minister’s alma mater Winchester College.

Headteacher Tony Oulton, state educated and with experience working on both sides of Britain’s educational divide, says Labour’s policy misrepresents the majority of private schools and punishes parents.

“The sector is not Eton or Harrow or Winchester, the big posh boarding schools largely based in the south of England.

“The majority is made up of schools like mine where parents are making real sacrifices to pay the school fees because that’s how they are choosing to prioritise their spending.”

‘They are prioritising education the way some prioritise holidays’

Even without the Labour policy, fees at Hulme will rise 5.5% next year, a figure Mr Oulton says reflects the wider costs pressures, primarily wages for teachers. He says he cannot absorb the VAT rise without sacrificing the 24-child class size limit he believes parents are paying for.

“I lament the political debate, the loss of nuance and insight into the impact on children.

“The idea they are buying privilege and separation would not resonate with parents here. They don’t recognise the rhetoric that sits around this, that they are part of some privileged elite. They are prioritising education the way some prioritise holidays.”

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Private schools ‘will adapt’ to VAT tax

Privately educated children do nevertheless enjoy advantages. At £15,000 the average fee is double the £7,500-per-head funding in the state sector, and selection allows independent schools to choose who they want to educate.

Analysis by the Institute for Fiscal Studies meanwhile shows that private school attendance is concentrated among the wealthiest households, with three quarters of pupils drawn from the 30% of highest earners, and most from the top 10%.

This perhaps explains why Labour has felt able to concentrate one of its few openly tax-raising policies on the sector.

It argues that the needs of the state system, relied on by 93% of parents, make it popular while unspoken is the possibility that complaints of those who can afford fees in the first place will elicit little sympathy.

They are relaxed too about warnings that increasing fees will lead to an exodus of pupils that will put state schools under pressure.

Private school rolls have remained constant despite average fees increasing almost 50% in the last decade, and state secondary registers are forecast to fall 7% in the next decade as a population bulge passes through the system.

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State education is facing undeniable challenges, including recruitment and retention, with one in four teachers leaving after three years in classrooms.

The growth in demand for special educational needs provision is also putting schools and local authorities under pressure. Some 576,000 children had an active education and health plan in January, almost as many as the total private school roll of around 615,000.

Headlands School in Bridlington faces typical challenges, all while working to clear a £1m deficit from its budget.

Assistant head teacher Adam Wooley said the issues for state education go beyond the school gate.

“It is not just about school funding but funding all the services around young people. A million people are in child poverty so there is only so much schools can do if children come in hungry, cold and without that stable foundation,” he says.

“I take the argument from private schools and parents that it is a squeeze on people being aspirational for their children, but all parents are aspirational. State schools can and absolutely should be a place where you can send your child and aspire to great things, but that needs funding.”

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Inside Out 2 becomes first movie of 2024 to top $1bn at global box office

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Inside Out 2 becomes first movie of 2024 to top bn at global box office

Inside Out has become the first film of the year to take over $1bn worldwide, becoming the highest grossing film of the year.

It is the first to reach the milestone since Warner Brothers’ movie Barbie last year, gaining the accolade faster than any animated film in history.

Pic: Disney/Pixar
Image:
Pic: Disney/Pixar

It has held the top spot at the box office for the last three weekends, following its release on 14 June.

The Pixar and Walt Disney collaboration is about a young girl called Riley, and the emotions she experiences as she learns and grows (Joy, Sadness, Anger, Fear and Disgust).

Following the success of the first movie, which was released in 2015, the sequel introduces new emotions into the mix – Anxiety, Envy, Ennui and Embarrassment – as Riley becomes a teenager.

The Disney Pixar movie has helped entice the coveted teen demographic (13-17) back into the auditorium.

‘Audiences will respond to compelling, entertaining movies’

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The voice cast includes Amy Poehler, Maya Hawke and Kensington Tallman, and is directed by Kelsey Mann.

Commenting on the achievement, the president and CEO of the National Association of Theatre Owners Michael O’Leary said: “On behalf of movie theatre owners across the country and around the world, we want to congratulate Disney’s Inside Out 2 for grossing $1bn faster than any animated movie in history.

“The film’s stunning global success once again illustrates that audiences the world over will respond to compelling, entertaining movies, and that they want to enjoy them on the big screen.”

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The movie is one of only 11 animated movies to make over $1bn, joining hits including Finding Dory, Frozen and its sequel, and the final two Toy Story instalments.

The next big family film out this year is Universal and Illumination’s Despicable Me 4, which comes to the UK in July, and stars Steve Carell, Kristen Wiig and Joey King.

Inside Out 2 is in UK cinemas now.

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House prices still unaffordable for the average earner despite wage rises – Nationwide

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House prices still unaffordable for the average earner despite wage rises - Nationwide

Average house prices are still unaffordable for the typical earner, the UK’s largest building society has said.

Despite wages rising above the rate of inflation in recent months and house prices falling from the record high of summer 2022, “housing affordability is still stretched”, Nationwide said.

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A greater proportion of take-home pay is going on mortgage bills, according to the lender’s house price index.

Someone earning the average UK income seeking to buy their first home with a deposit worth 20% of the asking price will have a monthly mortgage bill of 37% of their end pay packet.

It’s above the long-standing average of 30%.

The mortgages affect

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While people have been typically earning more and house prices are 3% lower than the all-time high two years ago, rising mortgage costs have made unaffordability worse.

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Lloyds Banking Group chief executive Charlie Nunn said the era of ultra low interest rates is over. 

With high interest rates – raised to 5.25% by the Bank of England to bring down inflation – have come more expensive mortgage costs.

According to Nationwide, the interest rate on a five-year fixed-rate deal for a borrower with a 25% deposit was 1.3% in late 2021. That has soared and is now around 4.7%.

Latest official figures showed basic pay grew 6% in the three months to April, while inflation – the rate of price rises – was 2.3% in the same month. But data from living-standards thinktank the Resolution Foundation said weekly wages have increased by just £16 in 14 years when inflation is factored in.

Compounding affordability problems is the fact UK house prices are back on the rise and were 1.5% more last month compared to June 2023.

Fewer mortgages, more cash

There have been fewer house-buying transactions over the past year, Nationwide added.

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The total number of transactions is down by roughly 15% compared to the pre-pandemic year of 2019.

Higher borrowing costs have meant transactions involving a mortgage are down even more, nearly 25%.

Cash transactions, however, are up 5% on pre-pandemic levels.

Figures released by the Bank of England on Monday morning showed mortgage approvals continued to fall.

House sales are likely to fall as the number of mortgages approved dropped to 60,000 in May from 60,800 in April.

Would-be buyers borrowed half the amount of money to purchase a home, the Bank said, £1.2bn was loaned in May, down from £2.2bn in April.

The same data showed that personal lending, such as credit card debt and personal loans, grew. It suggests increased consumer demand.

The region with the fastest house price growth was Northern Ireland at 4.1% across the three months of April to June, while it became 1.8% cheaper to buy a house in East Anglia over the year, according to Nationwide figures.

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