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Britain could soon have its most diverse parliament ever but how will voters from ethnically diverse communities behave at the ballot box?

The voting trends of such groups are incredibly complex and varied. There is no single narrative but several themes stick out from YouGov’s exclusive polling for Sky News.

Most notably, the handling of the conflict in the Middle East has damaged the two major parties in the eyes of British Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities. This is something the Labour Party, in particular, is very sensitive too.

Labour have historically fared well with these voters and 53% of ethnic minority voters we polled said they would vote for the party – that’s a greater lead than polls we’ve done with the general population.

However, the Tories fare worse among ethnic minority voters on the whole – in this poll they are neck and neck with the Green Party at 14%.

But, if we drill into the detail, 32% of British Indians said they would vote Conservative – 12% higher than the general population. This is a good reminder that there is a huge variation in voting trends among communities.

Reform UK polled much worse with ethnically diverse communities than the population at large – they’re on 7% – but they’re still one point above the Lib Dems.

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Political priorities

When it comes to the issues ethnically diverse voters care most about – it’s not that different to society as a whole.

The cost of living is the highest priority for the voters we polled. In the dataset representing the general population, the NHS comes up top, and the cost of living is second.

Political priorities
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Political priorities

The starkest difference is on housing which ranks much higher for the group made up of ethnic minorities.

The conflict in Gaza and Israel also polled higher – which 41% of British Pakistanis and Bangladeshis marked as a priority.

The ‘Gaza Effect’

Looking in detail at the Labour Party’s record, more than half of all ethnically diverse voters we polled think Labour have dealt with the war in Israel and Gaza badly – that’s higher than the general population, 47% of whom felt the party had dealt with the conflict badly.

But within the Pakistani and Bangladeshi community, a stark 78% don’t think Labour has performed well – despite the party now calling for a ceasefire.

This is what polling experts are calling a “Gaza Effect”.

The Gaza Effect
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The Gaza Effect

Although the party’s foreign policy stance has been damaging, it’s important to note that overall support for Labour among ethnically diverse communities, including Pakistanis and Bangladeshis is still higher than it is across the population as a whole.

But the party isn’t being complacent.

Labour’s campaign app has been directing activists to help defend 16 constituencies, most of which have majority diverse communities.

Gaza effect
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Gaza effect

One seat on that list is surprising – Shabana Mahmood’s constituency of Birmingham Ladywood.

It should be one of Labour’s safest seats in the UK – with a majority of over 28,000 votes, but with a high number of voters who care passionately about the conflict in the Middle East, Labour now appear to now be campaigning defensively here.

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While the overall scale of the impact is almost impossible to predict, and the sentiment represented by these figures doesn’t necessarily translate into votes or even seats, what is clear is that Labour support in some areas with high numbers of ethnically diverse communities could be waning long term.

And that could be a much bigger problem for the party if – as the polls suggest – they make it into government.

It is understood that the Labour Party has called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, as well as the immediate release of all hostages, and unimpeded humanitarian access into Gaza.

Candidates standing in the Birmingham Ladywood Constituency

Zoe Challenor: Green Party

Lee Dargue: Liberal Democrats

Shabana Mahmood: Labour Party

Shazna Muzammil: Conservative and Unionist Party

Akhmed Yakoob: Independent

Irene Yoong-Henery: Reform UK

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Sir Keir Starmer to sign 100-year ‘friendship’ deal with Ukraine in first Kyiv visit since becoming PM

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Sir Keir Starmer to sign 100-year 'friendship' deal with Ukraine in first Kyiv visit since becoming PM

Keir Starmer will sign a century-long partnership with Ukraine today, as the prime minister makes his first visit to the war-torn country in an effort to shore up support for Kyiv – just days ahead of the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House.

Sir Keir said the 100-year agreement underpinned Britain’s “steadfast support” for Ukraine as he reiterated European unity in the face of Russian aggression. The treaty and political declaration will be laid in parliament in the coming weeks.

“Putin’s ambition to wrench Ukraine away for its closest partners has been a monumental strategic failure. Instead, we are closer than ever and this partnership will take that friendship to the next level,” said the prime minister.

“The power of our long-term friendships cannot be underestimated. Supporting Ukraine to defend itself from Russia’s barbaric invasion and rebuild a prosperous, sovereign future, is vital to the government’s security and Plan for Change.”

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The PM’s visit is part of a wider effort on the part of European leaders to shore up support for Kyiv as they ramp up discussions over regional security ahead of the handover of power in Washington. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland on Wednesday.

The flurry of diplomatic activity comes as the conflict between Ukraine and Russia has intensified ahead of the inauguration of president-elect Trump, with Vladimir Putin trying to take as much territory as possible ahead of expected peace talks.

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On Wednesday, Ukraine’s state energy company was forced into emergency cuts after a massive Russian military attack.

Russia controls around a fifth of Ukraine after nearly three years of war and says any deal to end the conflict must take that into account.

In September 2022, it proclaimed four regions that it only partly controls as part of its own territory, which was condemned by the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) as an “attempted illegal annexation”.

While President Joe Biden was steadfast in the US’s continuing support of Ukraine’s military effort, Trump has made it clear he wants to end the conflict quickly, hastening discussions about what a settlement might look like between Kyiv and Moscow.

In November, President Zelenskyy said for the first time in an interview with Sky News that Ukraine was prepared to temporarily cede territory to Russia to end the war if the conflict was frozen along current lines.

He added after a ceasefire was agreed, Kyiv could negotiate for the return of seized territory.

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Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke to Sky’s Stuart Ramsay in Kyiv back in November about how a ceasefire could work.

Sir Keir has also changed his tone, from insisting allies must “double down” on support for Ukraine for “as long as it takes” at the November G20 summit, to saying British policy was now “to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position for negotiations”.

The prime minister will want to reiterate to President Zelenskyy that nothing is off the table, as the duo discuss the ongoing conflict, the impending Trump presidency and what a settlement could look like.

As part of the partnership deal, the UK will bolster military collaboration on maritime security through a new framework to strengthen the Baltic, Black and Azov seas.

President Zelenskyy has reportedly told journalists the two leaders will discuss the possibility of British troops joining a post-war peacekeeping force, as other European leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron – who visited the PM at his Chequers country residence last week – and Tusk have similar conversations.

Ukraine relies on US support to continue the conflict, given it provides the bulk of military aid. But Trump has made it clear he is reluctant to keep funding the war, saying during the election campaign he would end it “within 24 hours” of taking office.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is greeted by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer as he arrives in Downing Street, London, ahead of meetings with the Prime Minister and Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte, at number 10. Picture date: Thursday October 10, 2024. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS Ukraine. Photo credit should read: Jonathan Brady/PA Wire
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Downing Street back in October.

He has subsequently acknowledged that ending the conflict will be more difficult, but his administration is keen to press ahead: Trump has said he will arrange a call with Putin soon after his inauguration on 20 January, while the new US envoy to Ukraine, retired lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, said last week he wanted a solution to the war in the first 100 days of office.

The discussion around peacekeeping forces is part of a wider conversation among European allies about what security guarantees should be put in place for Ukraine, including buffer zones and the threat of more weapons for Ukraine in the absence of NATO membership.

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President Zelenskyy has said any guarantees must be backed up by the US as the prospect of a NATO membership invitation fades from view.

Ukraine becoming a member of NATO is a clear red line for Moscow, with Putin describing Kyiv joining the security alliance as “an unacceptable threat”.

Last week, Trump acknowledged Moscow’s longstanding opposition to Ukraine’s ambition to join NATO, given it would mean “Russia has somebody right on their doorstep, and I can understand their feeling about that”.

European leaders are concerned Trump will force Ukraine into an unjust peace deal, and they will be shut out of the negotiations which will shape the security of the continent for many years.

NATO chief Mark Rutte last month cautioned Trump over his plans for a peace deal, warning it would lead to the West’s enemies “high fiving” and would only serve to embolden China, North Korea and Iran.

The PM has come under criticism from Conservative rivals for not visiting Ukraine sooner, with former defence secretary Grant Shapps saying he was “astonished” is has taken the PM six months in power to visit the country.

However, Sir Keir has met the Ukrainian leader six times, as well as hosting him twice at Number 10 since taking office in July.

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SEC files opening brief in its appeal against Ripple over XRP

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SEC files opening brief in its appeal against Ripple over XRP

The securities regulator wants an appeals court to rule that XRP tokens sold to retail investors were unregistered securities, the latest in its years-long case against Ripple Labs.

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Arkansas lawmakers float bill to ban crypto mining near military facilities

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Arkansas lawmakers float bill to ban crypto mining near military facilities

The bill restricts crypto mining within a 30-mile radius of military bases, camps, hospitals, clinics and arsenals.

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