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The UK’s exit from recession during the first three months of the year was stronger than initial figures suggested, according to official data.

In an update on its first growth estimate, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.7% between January and March.

It had originally said on 10 May that output was 0.6% up on the previous three months – a positive figure that brought to an end the shallow recession that struck during the second half of 2023.

Then, the effects of Bank of England interest rate rises to combat inflation were widely blamed by economists for choking of demand.

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All the growth during the January-March period was attributable to the services sector, which accounts for almost 80% of the economy.

We have since learned that there was zero growth recorded by the ONS for the month of April, with poor weather hitting construction and high streets.

The data is the last from the ONS before the country goes to the polls on 4 July – with the economy, and personal finances especially, among the topics high on voters’ minds following the effects of the COVID pandemic and energy-driven cost of living crisis.

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Public service cuts under both Labour and Tories – thinktank

The timing of the general election has coincided with fierce debate over whether the Bank should now be cutting interest rates, allowing for an easing in borrowing costs.

At its last policy meeting just over a week ago, the rate-setting committee voted 7-2 to maintain Bank rate at 5.25%.

The minutes of the meeting betrayed continuing worries about the pace of wage growth and stubborn inflation within services.

The Bank fears that a rate rise, at this stage, risks fuelling price growth further as basic salaries grow at a pace of 6%.

The rate of inflation is currently back at its 2% target for the first time in three years.

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May: ‘Path is downwards’ on interest rates

Despite this gap in favour of consumers, with wage growth outpacing inflation since June last year, the effects of the crises since 2020 have taken their toll, according to campaigners on living standards.

The Resolution Foundation said on Friday that real household disposable incomes were lower in early 2024 than they were back in late 2019.

It said that growth so far in this parliament was weaker than all but two parliaments since 1910, despite growth over the past year of 2.4%.

The thinktank declared that average incomes were £120 a year lower per person over the period since the last election.

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‘We don’t know if we’re voting for tax rises or spending cuts’

Figures such as this get to the heart of the election campaign amid criticism of the main parties’ lack of clarity over their tax and spending commitments.

But they also give ammunition to critics of the Bank of England who argue that interest rates should come down.

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In its financial stability report on Thursday, there was a further nod to pressures ahead as it warned there were still three million mortgage holders yet to feel the pain of higher interest rates in their repayments.

As things stand, financial markets and economists see August or September as the likely months for the first rate cut, barring any new shocks.

For many, the prospect of action in June was largely eradicated by the election – the Bank anxious to avoid any questions over its independence.

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Asda-owner TDR snaps up former SPAC merger target CorpAcq

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Asda-owner TDR snaps up former SPAC merger target CorpAcq

The private equity owner of Asda has struck a deal to buy a controlling stake in a group which specialises in backing British SMEs.

Sky News has learnt that TDR Capital has agreed to acquire a majority interest in CorpAcq, less than six months after the so-called ‘corporate compounder’ aborted a deal to list in the US.

City sources said this weekend that CorpAcq, which makes roughly £125m in annual profit, was being valued at well over £1bn on an enterprise value basis in the deal with TDR.

Founded in 2006, CorpAcq – which sponsors Sale FC Rugby’s stadium, near its Altrincham base – has amassed a portfolio of more than 40 companies.

It specialises in buy-and-build strategies, with a focus on companies operating in the industrial products and services sectors.

The company’s acquisition blueprint enables SME founders to retain management control while gaining a long-term investment partner offering operational support to those businesses.

CorpAcq’s founder is Simon Orange, brother of the former Take That member Jason and joint-owner of the Sale Sharks.

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In 2023, a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) founded by Michael Klein, one of Wall Street’s leading financiers, announced a $1.5bn plan to take CorpAcq public.

The merger was called off in August last year, with Mr Klein’s vehicle Churchill Capital VII citing difficult IPO market conditions.

Banking sources said that TDR and CorpAcq had entered discussions well after the SPAC deal was abandoned.

The deal, which could be announced within weeks, is the latest to be struck by TDR, which also counts the pubs giant Stonegate and David Lloyd Leisure among its portfolio of investments.

A spokesman for TDR declined to comment.

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Poundland owner drafts in advisers amid discounter crisis

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Poundland owner drafts in advisers amid discounter crisis

The owner of Poundland, one of Britain’s biggest discount retailers, has drafted in City advisers to explore radical options for arresting the growing crisis at the chain.

Sky News has learnt that Pepco Group, which has owned Poundland since 2016, has hired consultants from AlixPartners to address a sales slump which has raised questions over its future ownership.

City sources said this weekend that the crisis would prompt Pepco to explore more fundamental for Poundland, including a formal restructuring process that could prompt significant store closures, or even an attempt to sell the business.

AlixPartners is understood to have been formally engaged last week, with options including a company voluntary arrangement or restructuring plan said to have been floated by a range of advisers on a highly preliminary basis.

Sources close to the group said no decisions had been taken, and that the immediate focus was on improving Poundland’s cash performance and reviving the chain’s customer proposition.

A sale process was not under way, they added.

Poundland trades from 825 stores across the UK, competing with the likes of Home Bargains, B&M and Poundstretcher, as well as Britain’s major supermarket chains.

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Last year, the British discounter recorded roughly €2bn of sales.

It employs roughly 18,000 people.

Earlier this week, Pepco Group, the Warsaw-listed retail giant which also trades as Pepco and Dealz in Europe, said Poundland had seen a like-for-like sales slump of 7.3% during the Christmas trading period.

In its trading statement, Pepco said that Poundland had suffered “a more difficult sales environment and consumer backdrop in the UK, alongside margin pressure and an increasingly higher operating cost environment”.

“We expect that the toughest comparative quarter for Poundland is now behind us – the same quarter last year represented a period prior to the changes made within our clothing and GM [general merchandise] ranges – and therefore, we expect the negative sales performance for Poundland to moderate as we move through the year.”

It added that Poundland would not increase the size of its store portfolio on a net basis during the course of this year.

“We are continuing a comprehensive assessment of Poundland to recover trading and get the business back to its core strengths, including undertaking a thorough assessment of all costs across the business, as well as evaluating its overall competitive positioning,” it added.

The appointment of AlixPartners came several weeks after Stephan Borchert, the Pepco Group chief executive, said he would consider “every strategic option” for reviving Poundland’s performance.

He is expected to set out formal plans for the future of Poundland, along with the rest of the group, at a capital markets day in Poland on 6 March.

Among the measures the company has already taken to halt the chain’s declining performance have been to increase the range of FMCG and general merchandise products sold at its traditional £1 price-point.

Poundland’s crisis contrasts with the health of the rest of the group, with Pepco and Dealz both showing strong sales growth.

A spokesman for Pepco Group, which has a market capitalisation equivalent to about £1.7bn, declined to comment further on the appointment of advisers

AlixPartners also declined to comment.

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FTSE 100 closes at record high

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FTSE 100 closes at record high

The UK’s benchmark stock index has reached another record high.

The FTSE 100 index of most valuable companies on the London Stock Exchange closed at 8,505.69, breaking the record set last May.

It had already broken its intraday high at 8532.58 on Friday afternoon, meaning it reached a high not seen before during trading hours.

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The weakened pound has boosted many of the 100 companies forming the top-flight index.

Why is this happening?

Most are not based in the UK, so a less valuable pound means their sterling-priced shares are cheaper to buy for people using other currencies, typically US dollars.

This makes the shares better value, prompting more to be bought. This greater demand has brought up the prices and the FTSE 100.

The pound has been hovering below $1.22 for much of Friday. It’s steadily fallen from being worth $1.34 in late September.

Also spurring the new record are market expectations for more interest rate cuts in 2025, something which would make borrowing cheaper and likely kickstart spending.

What is the FTSE 100?

The index is made up of many mining and international oil and gas companies, as well as household name UK banks and supermarkets.

Familiar to a UK audience are lenders such as Barclays, Natwest, HSBC and Lloyds and supermarket chains Tesco, Marks & Spencer and Sainsbury’s.

Other well-known names include Rolls-Royce, Unilever, easyJet, BT Group and Next.

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FTSE stands for Financial Times Stock Exchange.

If a company’s share price drops significantly it can slip outside of the FTSE 100 and into the larger and more UK-based FTSE 250 index.

The inverse works for the FTSE 250 companies, the 101st to 250th most valuable firms on the London Stock Exchange. If their share price rises significantly they could move into the FTSE 100.

A good close for markets

It’s a good end of the week for markets, entirely reversing the rise in borrowing costs that plagued Chancellor Rachel Reeves for the past ten days.

Fears of long-lasting high borrowing costs drove speculation she would have to cut spending to meet self-imposed fiscal rules to balance the budget and bring down debt by 2030.

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They Treasury tries to calm market nerves late last week

Long-term government borrowing had reached a high not seen since 1998 while the benchmark 10-year cost of government borrowing, as measured by 10-year gilt yields, was at levels last seen around the 2008 financial crisis.

The gilt yield is effectively the interest rate investors demand to lend money to the UK government.

Only the pound has yet to recover the losses incurred during the market turbulence. Without that dropped price, however, the FTSE 100 record may not have happened.

Also acting to reduce sterling value is the chance of more interest rates. Currencies tend to weaken when interest rates are cut.

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