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Education Secretary Gillian Keegan has joked about needing a new job next week as she faces being one of the Tories’ most high-profile election casualties.

The cabinet minister is projected to lose her Chichester seat in West Sussex to the Lib Dems, who are aiming to smash the so-called “blue wall” in southern England.

Election latest: Farage on defensive after supporters caught on camera making racist remarks

During a visit to a school in her constituency, Ms Keegan was asked by pupils what job she would do if she was not an MP.

“I might have to answer that question next Friday”, she said.

Ms Keegan later told the PA news agency that the polls were “all over the place” and “I have never taken anything in my whole life for granted”.

But her initial answer reflects the defeatist mood of some Tories as multiple polls suggest Britain’s political landscape is about to be fundamentally re-drawn, with Labour on course for a historic majority.

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Ms Keegan is one of more than a dozen senior figures at risk of having a so-called “Portillo moment” – a reference to Michael Portillo, the Conservative minister who was famously unseated as Tony Blair swept to power in 1997.

It is relatively rare for cabinet ministers to lose their seats at elections but as well as Ms Keegan, polls predict Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps and Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt could all be heading for the electoral chopping board, alongside many more high-profile colleagues.

Ms Keegan was elected in 2017 and has a healthy majority of 21,000.

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Tories ‘fighting for every vote’

Chichester has always been considered a Conservative stronghold, but the latest YouGov MRP poll says the Lib Dems are likely to take this seat on 4 July.

The education secretary is known to not mince her words and has faced criticism for a sweary rant about the RAAC crisis and joking that she would have “punched” an Ofsted inspector.

Earlier on Friday she gave a frank summation of the Tories’ chances at the election, telling Sky News that the polls are not “looking like the best outcome for our party” and lots of people are “frustrated” with the Conservatives for “very many reasons”.

It echoes a similar sentiment from other Tories who appear to have all but accepted defeat.

Read more from Sky News:
Hunt donates £32,000 in fight to keep seat
Major Tory donor defects to Reform

Northern Ireland minister Steve Baker will launch a bid to replace Rishi Sunak, it is understood, assuming the prime minister resigns if the party loses.

However, he admitted he is “widely expected” to be unseated in Wycombe, where he has a slim 4,214 majority.

Other Tories have taken to warning voters about the dangers of a Labour “supermajority” and saying an effective opposition will be needed.

Meanwhile, Mr Shapps said early on in the campaign that to claim the Conservatives are on course for a victory would be to “try and pretend black is white”.

Mr Sunak, however, has sought to remain optimistic and insisted the Tories can still win.

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Timeline of how manhunt for wrongly released sex offender migrant Hadush Kebatu unfolded

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Timeline of how manhunt for wrongly released sex offender migrant Hadush Kebatu unfolded

The small-boat sex offender Hadush Kebatu was arrested on Sunday morning on the third day of a manhunt after he was mistakenly freed from prison.

The Ethiopian national had been serving a 12-month sentence at HMP Chelmsford since September. He was due to be released in order to be immediately deported, but instead he was able to board a train to London.

The mistake triggered a manhunt that involved three police forces looking for the prisoner. He was finally tracked down to Finsbury Park on Sunday, where he was arrested.

Here, Sky News examines how the event has unfolded:

Friday 24 October

Kebatu is released from HMP Chelmsford wearing a prison-issued grey tracksuit. He is also holding a clear plastic bag containing his possessions.

The prison released him on the expectation that he would be picked up by immigration enforcement, and the Home Office was ready to take Kebatu to an immigration removal centre, it is understood.

But it is unclear exactly what happened next.

A lorry driver, who was delivering equipment to Chelmsford jail on Friday, told Sky News correspondent Tom Parmenter he saw the “confused” offender outside the facility being directed by prison staff to the city’s railway station following his release.

The offender is said to have returned to the prison “four or five times” but was turned away.

Footage later appears to show Kebatu in Chelmsford High Street.

In the video he appears to ask a group of people for help.

12.41pm: The prisoner boards a Greater Anglia London-bound train at Chelmsford station.

12.51pm: The train arrives at Shenfield station, in the Essex borough of Brentwood.

12.57pm: Essex Police are informed by the prison service that Kebatu was mistakenly released.

The force says it has launched a search operation and is working closely with partner agencies.

CCTV footage of Kebatu in Chelmsford. Pic: Met Police
Image:
CCTV footage of Kebatu in Chelmsford. Pic: Met Police

By the time the search started, the train that Kebatu boarded at Chelmsford had already called at Shenfield, according to Trainline data.

Essex Police appeals to anyone who has seen the prisoner to contact the force immediately.

1.12pm: Kebatu gets off the train at Stratford in east London.

8pm: Kebatu was seen in the Dalston area of Hackney.

He was pictured still wearing his prison-issue grey tracksuit top and bottoms, and was carrying his belongings “in a distinctive white bag with pictures of avocados on it”.

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Wanted asylum seeker captured on CCTV

Kebatu in Dalston. Pic: Met Police
Image:
Kebatu in Dalston. Pic: Met Police

Saturday 25 October

12.37pm: The Metropolitan Police announces it has taken over the manhunt for Kebatu.

In a statement, commander James Conway says senior investigating officers are “examining CCTV” from around Stratford station and further afield, to establish information about the prisoner’s subsequent movements.

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Police call on public to assist on manhunt

2.00pm: A delivery driver who spoke to Kebatu outside Chelmsford prison tells Sky News the “confused” offender was guided to the railway station by prison staff.

He says Kebatu approached him with no idea of where he was supposed to go.

He adds the prisoner must have been outside the prison for roughly “an hour and a half”, before he finally left, adding: “They [the officers] were basically sending him away, saying, ‘Go, you’ve been released, you go’.”

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Witness: Wrongly freed migrant ‘asked me for help’

4.30pm: Met Police Commander James Conway makes a direct appeal to Kebatu.

“We want to locate you in a safe and controlled way. You had already indicated a desire to return to Ethiopia when speaking to immigration staff,” he says.

“The best outcome for you is to make contact directly with us by either calling 999 or reporting yourself to a police station.”

He says he believes Kebatu has access to funds and that he’s sought assistance from members of the public and station staff in both Chelmsford and London.

Read more:
How many prisoners are released by mistake?

Sunday 26 October

8.30am: After receiving information from the public, the Met trace Kebatu to Finsbury Park where he is arrested and taken into custody.

9.30am: Met Police put out press statement confirming the arrest of Kebatu and say: “This has been a diligent and fast paced investigation led by specialist officers from the Metropolitan Police, supported by Essex Police and the British Transport Police.

“Information from the public led officers to Finsbury Park and following a search, they located Mr Kebatu. He was detained by police, but will be returned to the custody of the Prison Service.

“I am extremely grateful to the public for their support following our appeal, which assisted in locating Mr Kebatu.”

What happened in the lead up to the wrongful release?

Kebatu was found guilty of five offences after a three-day trial at Chelmsford and Colchester magistrates’ courts in September.

His case led to protesters and counter-protesters taking to the streets in Epping, Essex, and eventually outside hotels housing asylum seekers across the country.

The incidents occurred in July, eight days after he arrived in the UK by small boat

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‘Terrible’ Caerphilly result akin to Hartlepool by-election loss, says Wes Streeting

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'Terrible' Caerphilly result akin to Hartlepool by-election loss, says Wes Streeting

The health secretary has compared the collapse of Labour’s vote in the Caerphilly by-election to the party’s defeat in Hartlepool in 2021 – when Sir Keir Starmer considered resigning as leader.

Wes Streeting described the party’s performance in the Senedd seat – where it took just 3,713 votes – as “terrible” and said it had to match Labour’s response to the Hartlepool by-election defeat.

Politics latest: UK in ‘despair’, warns Streeting

Plaid Cymru's Lindsay Whittle was elected to represent his hometown of Caerphilly. Pic: PA
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Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle was elected to represent his hometown of Caerphilly. Pic: PA

Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Mr Streeting said the loss of Hartlepool to the Tories while the party was in opposition was a “shock to Labour’s core” and prompted Sir Keir to “change the Labour Party with a pace and scale of ambition” that paved the way for its landslide election victory last year.

The prime minister has admitted in several interviews that he considered resigning in the wake of the defeat.

Asked whether he was providing “withering criticism” of Sir Keir and the direction of his government, Mr Streeting said he was not but acknowledged that the public was “not yet feeling the change” Labour had promised.

“If I have one criticism of us collectively as a team, we are not telling a compelling enough story about who we are, who we’re for and what it is we are driving to do,” he said.

“Take that result in Caerphilly on the chin, take it to heart and show the same level of ambition and drive and the scale of change within government that the public are crying out for.”

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What does Plaid Cymru’s victory in Caerphilly mean for Labour?

Support for Labour in the Welsh town of Caerphilly slumped in the by-election on Thursday, where it came in third place behind winners Plaid Cymru, who won with 15,960 votes.

While a defeat was denied to Reform UK, which came second with 12,113 votes, the result has prompted fear within Labour ranks that it is losing support to rival left-wing parties as well as those on the right.

The result, which Sir Keir admitted was “bad” and “disappointing”, came during another challenging week for the prime minister.

On Saturday Lucy Powell, the former Commons leader who was sacked by Sir Keir in his most recent reshuffle, was elected Labour deputy leader in what has been interpreted as a repudiation of the prime minister’s leadership.

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Powell on plans to unite Labour Party

And the day before, a nationwide manhunt was triggered after Hadush Kebatu, an Ethiopian migrant who was jailed for 12 months in September for sexually assaulting a 14-year-old girl and a woman in Essex, was accidentally released from HMP Chelmsford.

The Metropolitan Police has confirmed it has now found Kebatu – whose crimes sparked protests outside the asylum hotel in Epping where he was staying – and that he was arrested in the Finsbury Park area of London at around 8.30am on Sunday morning.

Read more:
20 warnings for Sir Keir Starmer from new deputy leader

Mr Streeting said there needed to be accountability for the “egregious failure” which resulted in Kebatu’s release.

He said he agreed the incident was an example of “state failure” that played into the “sense of despair” felt across the country about the state of the country’s public services.

“There is a deep disillusionment in this country at the moment and, I’d say, growing sense of despair about whether anyone is capable of turning this country around,” he said.

“Now, I am an optimist in politics. I think there are green shoots of recovery in the NHS, in the economy, in our public services, but there is also so much more to do and we’ve got to attack those challenges with the level of energy and focus that the scale of the challenge demands.”

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Hadush Kebatu: CCTV images show last sightings of wanted asylum seeker after he was released from prison in error

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Hadush Kebatu: CCTV images show last sightings of wanted asylum seeker after he was released from prison in error

CCTV images have been released of a jailed asylum seeker who was accidentally freed from prison – as police detailed the last sighting of him.

Hadush Kebatu was released in error from HMP Chelmsford on Friday instead of being handed over to immigration officials for deportation – one month into a 12-month sentence.

As the manhunt continues, the images show him in the Essex town on Friday and later the same day in Dalston, east London, where he was carrying a “distinctive white bag with pictures of avocados on it”, said the Metropolitan Police.

The last sighting of Kebatu is thought to have been in Dalston CLR James Library in Dalston Square on Friday evening.

The Ethiopian national had been found guilty in September of sexually assaulting a 14-year-old girl and a woman in Epping.

His crimes while staying at The Bell Hotel in Epping sparked weeks of protests over the summer.

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Police call on public to assist on manhunt

The Met Police, which has been leading the search for Kebatu, alongside Essex Police and the British Transport Police, has made a direct appeal Kebatu to hand himself in.

He left Chelmsford train station at 12.42pm on Friday and arrived at Stratford station in east London soon after at 1.12pm.

Kebatu had since taken “a number of journeys” across London and had “access to funds”, according to Met Commander James Conway.

(L-R) Hadush Kebatu in Chelmsford on Friday and later in Dalston, east London. Pic: Met Police
Image:
(L-R) Hadush Kebatu in Chelmsford on Friday and later in Dalston, east London. Pic: Met Police

Last sighting

The force said he was last seen shortly before 8pm on Friday evening in the Dalston area of Hackney in east London.

It has released two CCTV images of him from Friday, one in Chelmsford where he was wearing his prison-issued, grey tracksuit and holding a clear, plastic bag containing his possessions.

Hadush Kebatu was arrested in July. Pic: Crown Prosecution Service/PA
Image:
Hadush Kebatu was arrested in July. Pic: Crown Prosecution Service/PA

The other was taken in Dalston, where he was still wearing his grey tracksuit, but was carrying his belongings “in a distinctive white bag with pictures of avocados on it”.

A Met statement added: “Additional officers have been deployed to the area to carry out further searches, but we are appealing for the help of local residents to report any sightings as soon as possible.”

Mr Conway has asked for members of the public who have given assistance to Kebatu to contact them or anyone who sees him to call 999.

And in a direct appeal to Kebatu, Mr Conway added: “We want to locate you in a safe and controlled way.

“You had already indicated a desire to return to Ethiopia when speaking to immigration staff, the best outcome for you is to make contact directly with us by either calling 999 or reporting yourself to a police station.”

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Watch: Witness describes confusion outside prison

Meanwhile, a lorry driver, who was delivering equipment to Chelmsford jail on Friday, told Sky News correspondent Tom Parmenter he saw the “confused” offender outside the facility being directed by prison staff to the town’s railway station following his release.

The witness, called Sim, said Kebatu came out of the jail saying, “Where am I going? What am I doing?” and hanging around for about 90 minutes as he tried to find out where he should be going.

Sim said the offender returned to the prison “four or five times” but was turned away.

He said Kebatu knew he should be deported but the prison staff were “basically sending him away” and saying to him, “Go, you’ve been released, you go”.

Hadush Kebatu, who was jailed for two sexual assaults in Epping. Pic: Essex Police/PA
Image:
Hadush Kebatu, who was jailed for two sexual assaults in Epping. Pic: Essex Police/PA

Kebatu was spotted later in Chelmsford town centre asking for assistance before getting on a train to London.

HM Prison and Probation Service is introducing new and mandatory procedures for prisoner releases after Kebatu was mistakenly freed, Ministry of Justice sources say.

Duty governors, who are responsible for the daily secure operation of prisons, will now be required to complete additional checks the evening before a release, it is understood.

Governors will need to provide assurance that the procedure is in place on Monday, Sky News understands.

Justice Secretary David Lammy said on Friday night that Kebatu was “at large in London”. He said he was “livid on behalf of the public” and added that he had launched an investigation.

Sir Keir Starmer said he was “appalled” at the accidental release and said it was “totally unacceptable”, adding: “This man must be caught and deported for his crimes.”

A prison officer has been taken off duties to discharge prisoners while an investigation takes place.

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