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This week the party leaders made their final pleas to voters. The Labour and Lib Dem leaders visited some of their most ambitious targets so far, while the prime minister took a scattergun approach, fighting for votes in even some of the safest of Tory seats.

Watch their journeys this week in our animated map below.

This campaign is being fought on new electoral boundaries, with many constituencies undergoing significant changes since 2019.

For the purposes of this analysis, we use notional results based on calculations by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, honorary professors at the University of Exeter, which estimate the 2019 election seat results if they had taken place on the new constituency boundaries.

Crunch time

We’re fast approaching election day. In their closing gambits, the Conservatives have been trying to claw back straying voters and convince undecided ones, while Labour have endeavoured to stick to the script and avoid any missteps.

The Conservatives are fending off a potential Labour landslide and are fighting on multiple fronts, while both leaders are wary of losing votes to smaller parties or apathy where people believe the result is already a foregone conclusion.

The big picture

It’s been a long five weeks for the Tories, whose campaign has been mired with several high-profile embarrassments: from Sunak’s D-Day gaffe to the growing sleaze scandal surrounding insider betting allegations at Westminster.

This hasn’t helped their attempt to narrow the polls, and the campaign has remained deep in defensive territory throughout. The prime minister has visited seats with an average 25% Conservative majority.

Nearly 9 in 10 (88%) of Sunak’s 51 constituency visits have been to seats his party is defending. Fourteen of those are places where the Conservatives’ closest rivals are the Lib Dems, and the remaining 34 in places where Labour is the strongest challenger.

In contrast, 84% of Starmer’s 44 constituency visits have been to seats Labour are targeting. All but four of them have been places the Tories are defending.

Labour’s challenge has been to generate enthusiasm for a Starmer government. On average, the target seats he has visited need a 10.5 point vote swing to become Labour gains – just above the figure that Tony Blair achieved in 1997.

Labour must achieve higher than this – a record swing of 12 percentage points from the Conservatives – to secure a majority, however, and Starmer has been visiting seats that require a vote swing as high as 18 points.

The Labour leader has mostly steered clear of the primarily Conservative vs Lib Dem battlegrounds in the south, but has ventured to parts of the South East that only Blair has previously managed to conquer.

Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey has seemingly been having the most fun on the campaign trail, with a series of attention-grabbing stunts including photo ops on rollercoasters and dips in the Thames.

All but one of his 40 campaign visits have been to seats the Lib Dems are targeting, including one Labour-held and one SNP-held seat, with the rest of his time spent targeting Conservative-held seats.

How does the ground battle match the digital one?


Tom Cheshire

Tom Cheshire

Online campaign correspondent

@chesh

Looking at data from Who Targets Me, Sky’s partner for our Online Campaign Team, we’ve now got a pretty full picture of how the main two parties have using political advertising on social media.

The Conservatives have consistently trailed Labour both in terms of spend and in the number of adverts posted (you’d expect those to correlate).

But there doesn’t seem to be any coherence to the current campaign – not even a strategy of retrenchment, as Tom King from Who Targets Me notes: “it appears there is no directive, and every seat is sorting itself out.”

Labour has maintained its blanket coverage. And the tone of its adverts is very different.

They tend to focus on Labour and its central message: 22 per cent of all of the more than 5,500 adverts they’ve put up have contained the message “Change”.

The Conservatives have been a lot more negative. 83 per cent of their adverts mention Labour – and only 1 per cent mention their own leader Rishi Sunak. It’s definitely a rearguard action.

Hiding in plain sight

One theme that has been shared across the two main parties’ campaigns is their reluctance to send their leaders to the public or large crowds.

Rishi Sunak has been to see small crowds at many business locations, and the micro-management of his audiences was revealed early in the campaign when at one event it transpired that supposed members of the public were Conservative councillors.

Sir Keir Starmer has played on his football links, visiting two stadiums including Northampton Town this week, but has likewise mostly stuck to closely managed events.

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One leader who hasn’t been afraid of crowds is Reform’s Nigel Farage. Starting his campaign on a pub bench in Clacton, this week he had something of a homecoming in Newton Abbot where 1,500 spectators came to see him speak on Monday. The town was the location of UKIP’s headquarters in their heyday.

Sir Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat leader, has also had a much more public-facing campaign in his various campaign stunts.

The Greens are the only ones to have really made use of celebrity endorsement. This week they won the vocal support of two Hughs – chef Fearnley-Whittingstall and actor Grant.

Upping the ante

The types of seats the Labour and Lib Dem leaders have visited have been markedly different this week.

Sir Keir Starmer has been to increasingly more ambitious targets, visiting Leicestershire North West this week which requires an 18-point swing for Labour to gain, the highest on his trail so far.

That’s also been the trend for Sir Ed Davey. In the final week of campaigning, he’s visited seats where the Liberal Democrats need a swing of 17 points on average to gain, up from 12 points in the previous week.

The prime minister has been less consistent. Indicative of the broad coalition of voters that Johnson built and Sunak has to defend, his visits have spanned from the most marginal defences to what should be the safest of majorities.

Popular places

Over the last 37 days, the three English main party leaders have made 135 visits to 119 unique constituencies. That’s more than 18% of the UK’s seats covered by Sunak, Starmer and Davey.

The seats with the most visits, at three apiece, are Redcar in the North East, Wimbledon in London, and Sunak’s own constituency Richmond & Northallerton in Yorkshire.

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Redcar, visited twice by Sunak and once by Starmer, is a Conservative defence where the Conservative minister candidate is looking vulnerable to Labour.

Davey has his sights set on the highly marginal seat of Wimbledon in London, which the Lib Dems have never won before. He’s visited twice, while Sunak has been to the Conservative defence once on the campaign trail.

And the prime minister has visited his own constituency three times, most recently this week. He defends a 46.9% majority but some MRP polls say there’s a chance he’ll lose it.


Dr Hannah Bunting is a Sky News elections analyst and co-director of The Elections Centre at the University of Exeter.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Hainault sword attacker Marcus Monzo found guilty of murdering boy, 14, and three attempted murders

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Hainault sword attacker Marcus Monzo found guilty of murdering boy, 14, and three attempted murders

A man has been found guilty of murdering a 14-year-old boy with a samurai sword as he walked to school in east London.

Marcus Arduini Monzo, 37, nearly decapitated Daniel Anjorin and attacked five others during a 20-minute rampage in Hainault on 30 April last year.

Prosecutors said he skinned and deboned his pet cat Wizard before trying “to kill as many people as he could” while under the influence of cannabis.

Monzo, a Spanish-Brazilian national from Newham in east London, admitted two charges of possessing an offensive weapon relating to two swords, which he said he bought for display purposes.

He claimed he had no memory of carrying out the attacks denied Daniel’s murder along with four charges of attempted murder, wounding with intent, aggravated burglary and possession of a bladed article.

He was cleared of one count of attempted murder – instead found guilty of wounding with intent to cause grievous bodily harm – and convicted of all other charges following a trial at the Old Bailey.

Daniel Anjorin was attacked in Hainault, northeast London, and suffered fatal wounds on 30 April last year. Pic: Metropolitan Police.
Image:
Daniel Anjorin, 14, died in April last year. Pic: Metropolitan Police

The court heard Monzo was a “talented martial artist” and the jury was shown footage of him unboxing a samurai sword on 4 April last year.

In the four-minute video clip, he calls the weapon “freaking sexy” as he lunges towards the camera and makes different moves.

Marcus Monzo
Image:
Marcus Monzo with a samurai sword in footage shown during the trial

The court was also shown CCTV footage from the morning of 30 April, with audible screams in one clip as Monzo drove his grey Ford Transit van at speed into pedestrian Donato Iwule.

Mr Iwule told jurors: “I thought I was dying” and “I saw blood coming out of my neck”, after he was struck with a sword before running away.

Witnesses described how Monzo was running around “like a maniac” and “looked a bit mad, like there was nothing there”.

Daniel, who had left home at around 7am wearing headphones and school sports clothes, suffered “a near-decapitation” when Monzo attacked him with the weapon from behind, prosecutor Tom Little KC told the jury.

 Handout footage from a doorbell camera of police officers tasering a sword-wielding man in Hainault, north east London, after a 14-year-old boy died after being stabbed following an attack on members of the public and two police officers. Pic: PA
Image:
Monzo was tasered by police. Pic: PA

PC Yasmin Mechem-Whitfield chased the armed attacker through alleyways before Monzo struck her three times with the 60cm blade using “extreme force”, the court heard.

He then entered a nearby house through the back door and walked upstairs before attacking sleeping couple Sindy Arias and Henry De Los Rios Polania, who he asked: “Do you believe in God?”

Mr Little said their lives were only spared because their four-year-old daughter, who was sleeping nearby, woke up and started to cry.

Monzo, who had been cornered by police, also struck Inspector Moloy Campbell once with the sword before he was finally disarmed and arrested after trying to climb onto a garage to escape.

Doorbell footage shows the moment officers shout: “Don’t move, don’t f****** move”, after he was brought to the ground by three separate taser discharges.

Monzo told police he had “many personalities”, including a “professional assassin”, and compared the events to The Hunger Games film franchise.

He wept while giving evidence as he said he did not intend to harm anybody and told jurors he had no memory of what happened.

He told how he had previously used psychedelic drugs and smoked cannabis “three or four times a week” before the attack, but denied doing so on the day.

Prosecutors said he likely suffered from a psychotic disorder with “schizophrenic-like symptoms”, including “delusional beliefs” that both he and his family were in “mortal danger”.

But Mr Little said his psychotic state was self-induced and did not meet the threshold for diminished responsibility.

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Thousands of Eurostar passengers facing cancellations and severe delays after cable theft

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Thousands of Eurostar passengers facing cancellations and severe delays after cable theft

Thousands of Eurostar passengers have been suffering severe delays and last-minute cancellations due to cable theft – a day after two track fatalities caused disruption.

The latest delays come after 600 metres of copper cables were stolen overnight in the city of Lille in northern France, according to reports in the country.

Eurostar said this was forcing it to run services on alternative routes, causing extended journey times.

The company said in a statement that “full repairs are now completed” and trains resumed as normal as of 1pm UK time.

It added that “some delays can still be expected until the end of the day”.

The statement continued: “Customers have been contacted directly with updates and available options, and Eurostar is advising those due to travel today to postpone their journey with free exchanges and refunds available.

“We’re very sorry for the continued disruption and the impact this is having on our customers. Our teams are working hard to support customers in the stations.”

Money blog: Your Eurostar rights explained

Eurostar said services between Brussels/Paris and London had been experiencing disruption since the beginning of the day.

Its services were already disrupted because many trains and staff members were out of position after two fatalities on rail lines in France on Tuesday.

At least five services on its London-Paris route were cancelled on Wednesday, and seven others were delayed by around an hour.

Pic: PA
Image:
Passengers at St Pancras International station in London. Pic: PA

The operator said it was handing out water to passengers on delayed trains, and it has teams at stations to provide assistance.

Affected passengers are able to change their travel plans free of charge or request a full refund.

Images show large crowds of stranded passengers at St Pancras International station in London today.

In a post on X, Eurostar said the cable theft meant trains were likely to be “subject to severe delays and last-minute cancellations”, adding: “We advise you to cancel or postpone your trip.”

Nigel Hardman, 57, took an Avanti West Coast train from Blackpool to London Euston at 5.30am, only for him and his family to find out en route that their Eurostar trip to Paris had been cancelled.

The delays have meant they have decided to board a train to Brussels instead of Paris, meaning they have lost out on about £700 on hotel costs and connecting trains.

Delayed passengers at St Pancras. Pic: PA
Image:
Delayed passengers at St Pancras. Pic: PA

Mr Hardman, a plumber from Blackpool, said: “There’s no availability on trains to Paris – they’re all booked up. We’re going to go to Brussels and stay there, then shoot down to Strasbourg, where we were supposed to be. I only found out on an email at about 3.30am this morning, why couldn’t they have told us last night?

“And when we got here, we were in the queue for an hour before we found out the other trains to Paris were all booked up. Everyone was useless until one really organised guy was telling it to us straight. It’s going to cost us about £700 extra which is really frustrating. And it’s just a nightmare start to our trip.”

Eurostar passenger Elizabeth Romijn, 75, a yoga teacher from the Netherlands said she is used to issues with the train service, but described Wednesday’s disruption as “very chaotic”.

She was planning to make her way home, catching the train to Brussels today after visiting friends in Guildford, Sussex and has decided to wait in the station to see if she can board a train.

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Ms Romijn said: “My plan is to just wait. Maybe I should go and be more proactive and go to ask one of the staff but nobody seems to know anything. And it’s quite horrible long queues.

“On the email they said, don’t go, go cancel your travel or take a voucher or something – but I thought I’m going to travel anyway. I’m just going to wait and if it’s cancelled, then I go back to Guildford where I’ve been visiting my friends.”

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Passengers at St Pancras International station .
Pic: PA
Image:
Passengers at St Pancras International station .
Pic: PA

Eurostar had said in a statement following the deaths on Tuesday: “We are deeply sorry to confirm that there were two separate fatalities on the LGV Nord high-speed line between Lille and Paris yesterday.

“Our thoughts are with the families and friends of those who lost their lives.

“The line was closed for much of the afternoon and evening, resulting in significant disruption to Eurostar services, including cancellations on routes to and from Paris.

“Trains on the London-Brussels-Amsterdam route continued to run with delays.

“This morning, disruption continues due to the knock-on impact of displaced trains and crew.

“Further to this, services have been further affected by an incident of cable theft on the same line near Lille.”

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Rayner refuses to repeat chancellor’s pledge on tax hikes

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Rayner refuses to repeat chancellor's pledge on tax hikes

Angela Rayner has refused to repeat Rachel Reeves’ pledge that taxes will not be increased at the next budget.

Standing in for Sir Keir Starmer at PMQs, the deputy prime minister was pressed on warnings from economists that tax rises are looking increasingly inevitable in the autumn to fund the chancellor’s spending plans.

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The Tories want a commitment that this will not be the case in order to support the government’s welfare bill, which is under threat from a growing and significant rebellion of Labour MPs.

Shadow chancellor Mel stride, standing in for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, said even if the planned benefit cuts go through, “almost every respected economist now says tax rises are all but inevitable in the autumn”.

He said Ms Reeves promised after her last budget that this will not be the case and asked Ms Rayner to give “certainty” to businesses and repeat that pledge.

Ms Rayner said the question was “a bit rich” given the Tories raised taxes to record highs before the last election, adding: “I take no lectures”.

More on Uk Economy

Mr Stride pressed her on analysis from the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) that local authorities will have to raise council tax to the maximum level allowed to pay for local services.

Angela Rayner
Image:
Angela Rayner

He said: “The IFS says that the spending review will mean the biggest council tax increases in a generation.

“A £7bn tax rise and yet the chancellor and the prime minister have repeatedly claimed that the government will not raise taxes on working people. So can I ask… why doesn’t she think the council tax is paid by working people?”

Ms Rayner again attacked the Tories’ record, saying he had “absolute nerve” as council tax “rose every single year under that government”.

She said Labour was “delivering money for local government, when they had austerity, put taxes up and ruined the British economy”.

Ms Reeves unveiled her spending review earlier this month, which outlined how much day-to-day funding government departments will get over the next three years, along with capital spending for longer-term projects.

The chancellor has insisted her plans are fully funded, but Paul Johnson, director of the IFS, has said she has left herself such little headroom that “any move in the wrong direction” for the economy would “almost certainly spark more tax rises”.

Any tax hikes would likely spark a backlash given Ms Reeves’ said last November that there would be no more tax hikes during this government’s term, following her decision to raise employer National Insurance in the autumn budget.

The government is facing further trouble as a key part of the spending review was a package of reforms aimed at shaving £5bn off the welfare budget by 2030.

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Sky’s Tamara Cohen explains.

However, an unprecedented rebellion of over 100 MPs is threatening that legislation, which is due to be voted on next Tuesday.

Ms Rayner today insisted the vote will go ahead.

She said: “I’ll tell the right honourable member why we’re pressing ahead with our reforms.

“That is because we’re investing £1 billion into tailored employment support, a right to try to help more people back into work and ending reassessments for the most severely disabled who will never be able to work.

“We won’t walk away and stand by and abandon millions of people trapped in the failing system left behind by him and his colleagues.”

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