Election campaign trails: How party leaders are upping the ante as poll day looms

Published

1 year ago

June 29, 2024

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This week the party leaders made their final pleas to voters. The Labour and Lib Dem leaders visited some of their most ambitious targets so far, while the prime minister took a scattergun approach, fighting for votes in even some of the safest of Tory seats.

Watch their journeys this week in our animated map below.

This campaign is being fought on new electoral boundaries, with many constituencies undergoing significant changes since 2019.

For the purposes of this analysis, we use notional results based on calculations by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, honorary professors at the University of Exeter, which estimate the 2019 election seat results if they had taken place on the new constituency boundaries.

Crunch time

We’re fast approaching election day. In their closing gambits, the Conservatives have been trying to claw back straying voters and convince undecided ones, while Labour have endeavoured to stick to the script and avoid any missteps.

The Conservatives are fending off a potential Labour landslide and are fighting on multiple fronts, while both leaders are wary of losing votes to smaller parties or apathy where people believe the result is already a foregone conclusion.

The big picture

It’s been a long five weeks for the Tories, whose campaign has been mired with several high-profile embarrassments: from Sunak’s D-Day gaffe to the growing sleaze scandal surrounding insider betting allegations at Westminster.

This hasn’t helped their attempt to narrow the polls, and the campaign has remained deep in defensive territory throughout. The prime minister has visited seats with an average 25% Conservative majority.

Nearly 9 in 10 (88%) of Sunak’s 51 constituency visits have been to seats his party is defending. Fourteen of those are places where the Conservatives’ closest rivals are the Lib Dems, and the remaining 34 in places where Labour is the strongest challenger.

In contrast, 84% of Starmer’s 44 constituency visits have been to seats Labour are targeting. All but four of them have been places the Tories are defending.

Labour’s challenge has been to generate enthusiasm for a Starmer government. On average, the target seats he has visited need a 10.5 point vote swing to become Labour gains – just above the figure that Tony Blair achieved in 1997.

Labour must achieve higher than this – a record swing of 12 percentage points from the Conservatives – to secure a majority, however, and Starmer has been visiting seats that require a vote swing as high as 18 points.

The Labour leader has mostly steered clear of the primarily Conservative vs Lib Dem battlegrounds in the south, but has ventured to parts of the South East that only Blair has previously managed to conquer.

Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey has seemingly been having the most fun on the campaign trail, with a series of attention-grabbing stunts including photo ops on rollercoasters and dips in the Thames.

All but one of his 40 campaign visits have been to seats the Lib Dems are targeting, including one Labour-held and one SNP-held seat, with the rest of his time spent targeting Conservative-held seats.

How does the ground battle match the digital one?

Tom Cheshire

Online campaign correspondent

@chesh

Looking at data from Who Targets Me, Sky’s partner for our Online Campaign Team, we’ve now got a pretty full picture of how the main two parties have using political advertising on social media.

The Conservatives have consistently trailed Labour both in terms of spend and in the number of adverts posted (you’d expect those to correlate).

But there doesn’t seem to be any coherence to the current campaign – not even a strategy of retrenchment, as Tom King from Who Targets Me notes: “it appears there is no directive, and every seat is sorting itself out.”

Labour has maintained its blanket coverage. And the tone of its adverts is very different.

They tend to focus on Labour and its central message: 22 per cent of all of the more than 5,500 adverts they’ve put up have contained the message “Change”.

The Conservatives have been a lot more negative. 83 per cent of their adverts mention Labour – and only 1 per cent mention their own leader Rishi Sunak. It’s definitely a rearguard action.

Hiding in plain sight

One theme that has been shared across the two main parties’ campaigns is their reluctance to send their leaders to the public or large crowds.

Rishi Sunak has been to see small crowds at many business locations, and the micro-management of his audiences was revealed early in the campaign when at one event it transpired that supposed members of the public were Conservative councillors.

Sir Keir Starmer has played on his football links, visiting two stadiums including Northampton Town this week, but has likewise mostly stuck to closely managed events.

One leader who hasn’t been afraid of crowds is Reform’s Nigel Farage. Starting his campaign on a pub bench in Clacton, this week he had something of a homecoming in Newton Abbot where 1,500 spectators came to see him speak on Monday. The town was the location of UKIP’s headquarters in their heyday.

Sir Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat leader, has also had a much more public-facing campaign in his various campaign stunts.

The Greens are the only ones to have really made use of celebrity endorsement. This week they won the vocal support of two Hughs – chef Fearnley-Whittingstall and actor Grant.

Upping the ante

The types of seats the Labour and Lib Dem leaders have visited have been markedly different this week.

Sir Keir Starmer has been to increasingly more ambitious targets, visiting Leicestershire North West this week which requires an 18-point swing for Labour to gain, the highest on his trail so far.

That’s also been the trend for Sir Ed Davey. In the final week of campaigning, he’s visited seats where the Liberal Democrats need a swing of 17 points on average to gain, up from 12 points in the previous week.

The prime minister has been less consistent. Indicative of the broad coalition of voters that Johnson built and Sunak has to defend, his visits have spanned from the most marginal defences to what should be the safest of majorities.

Popular places

Over the last 37 days, the three English main party leaders have made 135 visits to 119 unique constituencies. That’s more than 18% of the UK’s seats covered by Sunak, Starmer and Davey.

The seats with the most visits, at three apiece, are Redcar in the North East, Wimbledon in London, and Sunak’s own constituency Richmond & Northallerton in Yorkshire.

Redcar, visited twice by Sunak and once by Starmer, is a Conservative defence where the Conservative minister candidate is looking vulnerable to Labour.

Davey has his sights set on the highly marginal seat of Wimbledon in London, which the Lib Dems have never won before. He’s visited twice, while Sunak has been to the Conservative defence once on the campaign trail.

And the prime minister has visited his own constituency three times, most recently this week. He defends a 46.9% majority but some MRP polls say there’s a chance he’ll lose it.

Dr Hannah Bunting is a Sky News elections analyst and co-director of The Elections Centre at the University of Exeter.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

UK

Robert Best death: Women in court after man’s body found in Inverclyde field

Published

3 hours ago

November 19, 2025

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Robert Best death: Women in court after man's body found in Inverclyde field

Two women have appeared in court charged with attempting to defeat the ends of justice after a man was found dead in a field in Inverclyde.

The body of Robert Best, 50, was discovered near High Mathernock Farm, Kilmacolm, on the morning of 11 November.

He had been reported missing from Greenock the same day.

Dorothy Shields, 64, and Nicola Brisland, also known as Nicola Campbell, 41, were arrested and charged in connection with Mr Best’s death.

The pair appeared before Greenock Sheriff Court on Wednesday, where they made no plea to the charge of attempting to defeat the ends of justice.

The suspects, both of Port Glasgow, were granted bail ahead of their next court appearance, which is yet to be confirmed.

Andrew Brodie, 51, and Stephen Shields, 44, have already appeared in court in connection with the case.

The pair have each been charged with murder and attempting to defeat the ends of justice.

The suspects, both of Greenock, made no plea to the two separate charges last week and were remanded in custody ahead of their next court appearance.

A 45-year-old man previously arrested in connection with assault and a 41-year-old man arrested at the same time as the two women have both been released pending further enquiries.

Police Scotland previously said officers investigating Mr Best’s death were carrying out enquiries into a report of a disturbance in Lansbury Street, Greenock, which took place between 11pm on 10 November and 3am on 11 November.

A force spokesperson said: “Enquiries are ongoing.”

UK

Illegal mountain of waste next to river ‘utterly appalling’, says PM

Published

3 hours ago

November 19, 2025

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Illegal mountain of waste next to river 'utterly appalling', says PM

Sir Keir Starmer has called the pile of fly-tipped illegal waste next to a river in Oxfordshire “utterly appalling” and said “all available powers” will be used to make those responsible cover the cost of the clean-up.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey said the pile of rubbish in a field beside the River Cherwell in Kidlington is now 150m long and up to 12m high, adding that water is “now lapping against the waste and carrying it into the river”.

Speaking at PMQs, Sir Ed said it is just one of many sites where organised criminal gangs are “illegally dumping their waste onto our countryside and getting away with it”.

“This is a shocking environmental emergency. So will he instruct the Environment Agency to clean it up now?” Sir Ed added.

Sir Keir responded in the House of Commons on Wednesday, calling the scenes “utterly appalling”.

The prime minister said: “A criminal investigation, as he knows, is under way. Specialist officers are tracking down those responsible.

“The Environmental Agency, in answer to this question, will use all available powers to make sure that the perpetrators cover the cost of the clean-up, which must now follow.”

Sir Keir added: “We have boosted the Environment Agency’s budget for tackling waste crime by 50%, giving councils new powers to seize and crush fly-tippers, vehicles and lawbreakers can now face up to five years in jail.”

Earlier this week, Calum Miller, Liberal Democrat MP for Bicester and Woodstock, said recent heavy rainfall brought by Storm Claudia at the weekend had made the situation more urgent, and meant the rubbish was slowly floating towards the river, which eventually flows through Oxford and feeds the Thames.

Mr Miller also told Sky News on Sunday it was the first time he had seen anything on this scale, questioning whether the Environmental Agency had the resources to deal with it.

The cost of removing the waste is estimated to be more than the entire annual budget of the local council, which is about £25m.

With the site on a floodplain, Mr Miller listed what he saw as the three major environmental risks – waste being washed into the waterways, rain seeping through the waste and carrying toxins into the water and the danger of decomposing chemicals presenting a fire risk.

The site is adjacent to the A34, a busy road running through cities including Oxford and Birmingham.

He said the police had used a helicopter with a heat-seeking camera, and could see that some of the waste was beginning to decompose.

Mr Miller said he believed the Environment Agency was first made aware of the issue back in July.

He said he believed it was the work of “organised criminal gangs” and raised a “bigger systemic problem around the country”, with “dumps are cropping up in more and more places”.

He added: “My concern is the Environmental Agency lacks the resources to deal with criminal activity on this scale. I’m calling on the government to take action and ensure those who are dealing with such incidents have the powers they need to tackle it at source.”

Anna Burns, the Environment Agency’s director for the Thames area, said on Wednesday: “Most of the tipping happened before we were aware of it. As soon as we were aware, we acted quickly and decisively.”

Ms Burns said: “We are pursuing this as a criminal investigation and currently following a number of leads, and we are laser focused on pursing that investigation.

“And we are working with partners to understand the risks associated with the site.”

She said the agency will pursue the perpetrators to make them pay for the “blight on the landscape” they had caused.

UK

Oasis fan fell to his death at Wembley in ‘tragic accident’, coroner’s court hears

Published

5 hours ago

November 19, 2025

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Oasis fan fell to his death at Wembley in 'tragic accident', coroner's court hears

An Oasis fan who fell to his death at Wembley Stadium was the victim of a “tragic accident”, a pre-inquest review has heard.

Bournemouth man Lee Claydon, 45, died following the incident at the London venue on 2 August.

Detective Sergeant James Raffin, from the Met Police, said there were “no concerns” from Mr Claydon’s toxicology report.

He also said that while Mr Claydon had drunk alcohol, this was “expected” and “normal for any of the people attending” the Oasis gig.

The force had also ruled out the possibility of suicide, he said.

He told Barnet Coroner’s Court the police had now completed their investigation into his death

He said: “From a police point of view, this is no longer a criminal prosecution.

“We do not suspect any third party involvement.

“This, from everything we have seen, was a tragic accident.

“From a police point of view, I would say our investigation is complete.”

DS Raffin said he was aware the family had concerns over the “circumstances on the night”, and said he would pass these on to officials at Brent Council.

The deceased’s father, Clive Claydon, 75, previously raised questions about barriers at the venue.

“It must have been horrific,” he said in August.

“All I know is there was beer everywhere, it’s slippery, he slipped apparently, we do not know the rest of it, there’s questions about the barriers.”

Brent Council will now review the police report.

Mr Claydon, a landscape gardener, fell during a gig that formed part of Oasis’ sell-out Live ’25 reunion tour – their first since splitting in 2009.

The inquest opening, which took place in September, heard that the father-of-three was taken to a medical centre in Wembley after the fall, where he was pronounced dead at 10.38pm.

A post-mortem examination on 6 August gave his preliminary medical cause of death as “multiple bodily injuries”.

Senior Coroner Andrew Walker told the review hearing the full inquest will take place on 26 February next year.

He said: “It looks like we are going to be in a position next February to have reports from the London Borough of Brent over the circumstances and also we will have by then the police investigation report.”

Oasis previously said in a statement: “We are shocked and saddened to hear of the tragic death of a fan at the show.

“Oasis would like to extend our sincere condolences to the family and friends of the person involved.”

In a statement at the time of the fall, a Wembley spokesperson said: “The stadium operates to a very high health and safety standard, fully meeting legal requirements for the safety of spectators and staff, and is certified to and compliant with the ISO 45001 standard.

“We work very closely and collaboratively with all relevant event delivery stakeholders – including event owners, local authorities, the Sports Grounds Safety Authority and the police – to deliver events to high standards of safety, security and service for everyone attending or working in the venue.”