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In France, politics is happening at a ferocious pace.

This country – big, wealthy, influential and vital to the stability of Europe – is suddenly facing a moment of tumult. Change, and perhaps really big change, is looming.

There are election posters up everywhere, candidates staring out at you with fixed grins and slogans. But there is one face that seems to appear more than anyone else – Marine Le Pen.

Posters of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella
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Posters of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella

A fixture in French politics for a quarter of a century, she has stood for president, rebuilt her party, and even remoulded France’s far-right conversation. But now, more than ever, she sits on the brink of real power.

After Sunday’s election, the polls suggest that her far-right Rassemblement National (RN) will be the biggest winner, even allowing for the curious complexities of the French system.

A left-wing alliance will probably come second with the centre-ground party of President Emmanuel Macron trailing along in third.

If – and it’s a huge, wobbly, unreliable if – the RN were to get most seats in the National Assembly, the country would be transformed.

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Madame Le Pen’s protege, the 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, would inevitably be installed as prime minister, working uneasily alongside a president who loathes pretty much everything that the RN stands for.

Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. Pic: Reuters
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Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. Pic: Reuters

Mr Bardella would want much tougher laws against immigration, and against supporting immigrants.

He would also want to unwind some of Macron’s economic reforms and is much more sceptical about European integration than Macron.

How, you might wonder, could these two politicians work together in any meaningful way?

It would pave the way for instability, but also for the RN to flex real political clout.

And it would also lead to Ms Le Pen, once again, running for president. And as I write this, she is the favourite to win that contest, too.

But back to that big “if”.

Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella could soon take a key role within France's government. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella. Pic: Reuters

France has a two-round voting system, with a week in between ballots. Candidates knocked out in the first round often advise their supporters who to back in the decisive second ballot. People might change their minds anyway.

The results from the first influence the way people behave in the second. A higher turnout may help the RN, except in the big cities, where it will probably help their opponents. It is a confusing, noisy mechanism almost everyone agrees on two things.

Firstly, the RN, led by Le Pen but also focused upon Mr Bardella, is destined to win more seats than any other party. And, secondly, this is all the more frenetic because it came out of the blue.

Make no mistake, a month ago, none of this was predicted. Sure, everyone knew that the Renaissance party of President Emmanuel Macron was likely to suffer a bloody nose during the European elections.

The RN, powered by disaffection with Macron and the populist, anti-immigration, “France First” rhetoric of Ms Le Pen and the youthful Mr Bardella, was certain to prosper.

But history is littered with mid-term elections that produce curious results. Macron, surely, would just shrug it off.

Jordan Bardella. Pic: Reuters
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Jordan Bardella could soon take a key role within France’s government. Pic: Reuters

Except he didn’t.

Humbled by the scale of his defeat, Macron went on French television within minutes to announce that he was doing the very thing that his enemies in the RN had demanded – using his presidential power to dissolve parliament and call for fresh elections within weeks.

His logic was that the nation – his nation – would somehow come to its senses and turn its back on radical politics in general, and the RN in particular. And the evidence is that, fuelled by his own iron-clad self-belief, he got that wrong.

So what’s happening? More than anything, this is about two big political waves meeting each other. The first one has to do with Macron himself, whose popularity has simply declined. The second has to do with the ripple of populism that is moving through so many countries.

When he stormed to the presidency seven years ago, he was seen by many as the fresh new start that France needed – a dynamic young man, just 39 years old, who would shake up the nation and bring back some sense of dynamism and glory.

In the run-off against Ms Le Pen, he pitched himself as the politician of optimism, and her as a figure of hate. It worked – he won easily.

His follow-up victory a couple of years ago was less overwhelming but still comfortable. But then he lost control of the parliament and his control waned.

The old complaints came back – that he is, to quote an accusation I’ve heard countless times – the “president for the rich”; that he doesn’t understand the problems of normal people; that his interest is in promoting himself, not his country.

During the violent riots in Nanterre last year, Mr Macron’s government looked hopelessly leaden, while his efforts to raise the retirement age caused widespread fury.

His opponents from the centre have fragmented but his rivals on the left and right have become emboldened.

So while Mr Macron has tried to sound reasonable and emollient, he’s faced strident, unapologetic rhetoric from left and right, which has found an ever-greater audience.

Mr Macron is still a young man by the standards of global political leaders but perhaps his nation is now fed up with him, particularly at a time when so much space in the European political arena is being taken by leaders who favour strident opinions over considered nuance.

Giorgia Meloni, prime minister of Italy and leader of Fratelli di Italia, at a rally for the European Parliament elections. Pic: AP
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Giorgia Meloni, prime minister of Italy. Pic: AP

The French just have to look over their border with Italy, after all, to see how Giorgia Meloni’s brand of right-wing populism has prospered.

Look, perhaps, at the success in the Netherlands of Geert Wilders, a man who, like Ms Le Pen, spent decades in the political margins, confident that one day his time would come.

Or consider the volume of support given to the farmers who brought France’s motorways to a halt, angry with governments in Paris and Brussels.

The RN has tapped into that discontent and also benefited from it.

FILE - Anti-Islam lawmaker Geert Wilders of the PVV, or Party for Freedom, casts his ballot for the European election in The Hague, Netherlands, Thursday, June 6, 2024. The four parties negotiating to form a coalition government in the Netherlands have reached agreement on a new team of Cabinet ministers, far-right leader Geert Wilders said Tuesday, June 11, 2024. It's another key step toward forming the first Dutch government led by a far-right party Wilders, whose Party for Freedom won national elections more than six months ago, did not immediately give details. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong, File)
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Dutch anti-Islam politician Geert Wilders of the PVV, or Party for Freedom, voting in the European election in The Hague, Netherlands. Pic: AP

Sky News Data has analysed voting data from across France and drawn a few clear links that occur again and again.

In places where unemployment is high, such as near the border with Spain, or where disposable income is low, such as northwest France, the RN scores highly.

Madame Le Pen herself represents one of these places in the assembly – the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais. It includes Henin-Beaumont, a coal-mining town where she used to be a councillor and which is now an RN stronghold.

All around it are slag-heaps, now covered in grass. They are a reminder of the town’s past and also induce a widespread and lingering sense of resentment that the area, and its people, have been left behind.

If politics is a horseshoe, this is Mr Macron’s problem. The far-left leaders, like Jean-Luc Melenchon, condemn the President for not doing enough to protect workers and for damaging the fabric of society. So, too, do Ms Le Pen, Mr Bardella and the far-right.

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Their solutions are different, with Mr Melenchon’s rhetoric focusing on tax rises for the rich and stronger workers’ rights, while Ms Le Pen talks about immigration and protectionism, but perhaps the specifics don’t matter.

The fact is that after years of leadership from the centre, France is now increasingly looking to its margins.

We know the RN will do well, so the question is now just how well. And if they don’t take an absolute majority, and if Mr Macron resists appointing Mr Bardella as prime minister, what happens then?

Will the French government grind to a halt, gummed up by political divisions that stop anything being done?

Could Macron, as proud a leader as you’ll find, ever really be pushed into resignation?

We simply don’t know. And that is what makes this election so enthralling but also slightly unnerving.

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Ukraine and Europe cannot reject Trump’s plan – they will play for time and hope he can still be persuaded to desert the Kremlin

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Ukraine and Europe cannot reject Trump's plan - they will play for time and hope he can still be persuaded to desert the Kremlin

“Terrible”, “weird”, “peculiar” and “baffling” – some of the adjectives being levelled by observers at the Donald Trump administration’s peace plan for Ukraine.

The 28-point proposal was cooked up between Trump negotiator Steve Witkoff and Kremlin official Kirill Dmitriev without European and Ukrainian involvement.

It effectively dresses up Russian demands as a peace proposal. Demands first made by Russia at the high watermark of its invasion in 2022, before defeats forced it to retreat from much of Ukraine.

Ukraine war latest: Kyiv receives US peace plan

(l-r) Kirill Dmitriev and special envoy Steve Witkoff in St Petersburg in April 2025. Pic: Kremlin Pool Photo/AP
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(l-r) Kirill Dmitriev and special envoy Steve Witkoff in St Petersburg in April 2025. Pic: Kremlin Pool Photo/AP

Its proposals are non-starters for Ukrainians.

It would hand over the rest of Donbas, territory they have spent almost four years and lost tens of thousands of men defending.

Analysts estimate at the current rate of advance, it would take Russia four more years to take the land it is proposing simply to give them instead.

It proposes more than halving the size of the Ukrainian military and depriving them of some of their most effective long-range weapons.

And it would bar any foreign forces acting as peacekeepers in Ukraine after any peace deal is done.

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Is Moscow back in Washington’s good books?

The plan comes at an excruciating time for the Ukrainians.

They are being pounded with devastating drone attacks, killing dozens in the last few nights alone.

They are on the verge of losing a key stronghold city, Pokrovsk.

And Volodymyr Zelenskyy is embroiled in the gravest political crisis since the war began, with key officials facing damaging corruption allegations.

Read more from Sky News:
Witkoff’s ‘secret’ plan to end war
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Ukrainian support for peace plan ‘very much in doubt’

The suspicion is Mr Witkoff and Mr Dmitriev conspired together to choose this moment to put even more pressure on the Ukrainian president.

Perversely, though, it may help him.

There has been universal condemnation and outrage in Kyiv at the Witkoff-Dmitriev plan. Rivals have little choice but to rally around the wartime Ukrainian leader as he faces such unreasonable demands.

The genesis of this plan is unclear.

Was it born from Donald Trump’s overinflated belief in his peacemaking abilities? His overrated Gaza ceasefire plan attracted lavish praise from world leaders, but now seems mired in deepening difficulty.

The fear is Mr Trump’s team are finding ways to allow him to walk away from this conflict altogether, blaming Ukrainian intransigence for the failure of his diplomacy.

Mr Trump has already ended financial support for Ukraine, acting as an arms dealer instead, selling weapons to Europe to pass on to the invaded democracy.

If he were to take away military intelligence support too, Ukraine would be blind to the kind of attacks that in recent days have killed scores of civilians.

Europe and Ukraine cannot reject the plan entirely and risk alienating Mr Trump.

They will play for time and hope against all the evidence he can still be persuaded to desert the Kremlin and put pressure on Vladimir Putin to end the war, rather than force Ukraine to surrender instead.

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South Africa is making history with its first G20 summit, but the continued exclusion of its oldest communities is a symbolic threat

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South Africa is making history with its first G20 summit, but the continued exclusion of its oldest communities is a symbolic threat

This is the first time the G20 summit is being hosted on African soil.

Heads of state from 15 countries across Europe, Asia and South America are expected to convene in South Africa’s economic capital, Johannesburg, under the banner of “solidarity, equality and sustainability.”

The summit is facing challenges from the Oval Office as US President Donald Trump boycotts the event, where the G20 leadership is meant to be handed over to him by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa.

The US has also warned South Africa against issuing a joint declaration at the end of the summit. The challenges to South Africa’s G20 debut are also domestic.

Trump had a contentious meeting with Cyril Ramaphosa in the Oval Office earlier this year. File pic: AP
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Trump had a contentious meeting with Cyril Ramaphosa in the Oval Office earlier this year. File pic: AP

Nationwide civic disobedience has been planned by women’s rights charities, nationalist groups and trade unions – all using this moment to draw the government’s attention to critical issues it has failed to address around femicide, immigration and high unemployment.

But a key symbolic threat to the credibility of an African G20 summit themed around inclusivity is the continued exclusion and marginalisation of its oldest communities.

“There is a disingenuous thread that runs right through many of these gatherings, and the G20 is no different”, Khoisan Chief Zenzile tells us in front of the First Nations Heritage Centre in Cape Town, “from any of them”.

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“I am very concerned that the many marginalised sections of society – youth, indigenous people, are not inside the front and centre of this agenda,” he added.

Khoisan Chief Zenzile says land developments on indigenous land are the 'most ridiculous notion'
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Khoisan Chief Zenzile says land developments on indigenous land are the ‘most ridiculous notion’

As we speak, the sounds of construction echo around us. We are standing in a curated indigenous garden as South Africa’s Amazon headquarters is being built nearby.

After years of being sidelined by the government in a deal that centres around construction on sacred Khoisan land, Chief Zenzile said he negotiated directly with the developers to build the heritage centre and sanctuary as a trade-off while retaining permanent ownership of the land.

“There are many people who like to fetishise indigenous people who want to relegate us to an anthropoid state, as if that is the only place we can, as if we don’t have the tools to navigate the modern world,” he says when I ask about modern buildings towering over the sacred land.

“That is the most ridiculous notion – that the entire world must progress and we must be relegated to a state over which we have no agency.”

An hour and a half from Cape Town’s centre, Khoi-San communities have seized 2,000 hectares of land that they say historically belongs to them.

Knoflokskraal is a state where they exercise full agency – filling in the infrastructural gaps around water and electricity supply that the provincial government will not offer to residents it categorises as “squatters”.

“We are – exactly today – here for five years now,” Dawid De Wee, president of the Khoi Aboriginal Party, tells us as he gives us a tour of the settlement. “There are more or less around 4,000 of us.

“The calling from our ancestral graves sent us down here, so we had an urge to get our own identity and get back to our roots, and that was the driving motive behind everything we are here now to take back our ancestral grounds.”

'We are here now to take back our ancestral grounds,' Dawid De Wee says
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‘We are here now to take back our ancestral grounds,’ Dawid De Wee says

Dawid says they have plans to expand to reclaim more swathes of land stolen from them by European settlers in the 1600s across the Cape Colony.

Land reform is a contentious issue in post-Apartheid South Africa, with a white minority still owning a majority of the land.

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Indigenous land is even further down the agenda of reparations, and South Africa’s oldest communities continue to suffer from historic dispossession and marginalisation.

For many Khoi-San leaders, G20 represents the ongoing exclusion from a modern South African state.

They have not been invited to officially participate in events where “solidarity, equality and sustainability,” are being discussed without reference to their age-old knowledge.

Instead, we meet Khoi-San Queen Eloise at a gathering of tribal leaders from around the world on the most southwestern tip of Africa in Cape Point called the World Tribal Alliance.

Khoi-San Queen Eloise tells Sky that the G20 'is a politically-based gathering'
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Khoi-San Queen Eloise tells Sky that the G20 ‘is a politically-based gathering’

“In order for us to heal, Mother Nature and Mother Earth is calling us, calling our kinship, to come together – especially as indigenous people because with indigenous people we are still connected to our lands, to our intellectual property we are connected to who we are,” Queen Eloise tells us.

“G20 is a politically-based gathering – they are coming together to determine the future of people politically.

“The difference is that we will seek what Mother Earth wants from us and not what we want to do with technology or all those things politically, but the depth of where we are supposed to go.”

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Britain rattles its sabre at Russia’s spy ship – but is it a hollow threat?

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Britain rattles its sabre at Russia's spy ship - but is it a hollow threat?

A fierce warning from Britain’s defence secretary to Vladimir Putin to turn his spy ship away from UK waters or face the consequences was a very public attempt to deter the threat.

But unless John Healey backs his rhetoric up with a far more urgent push to rearm – and to rebuild wider national resilience – he risks his words ringing as hollow as his military.

The defence secretary on Wednesday repeated government plans to increase defence spending and work with NATO allies to bolster European security.

Russian Ship Yantar transiting through the English Channel. 
File pic: MOD
Image:
Russian Ship Yantar transiting through the English Channel.
File pic: MOD

Instead of focusing purely on the threat, he also stressed how plans to buy weapons and build arms factories will create jobs and economic growth.

In a sign of the government’s priorities, job creation is typically the top line of any Ministry of Defence press release about its latest investment in missiles, drones and warships rather than why the equipment is vital to defend the nation.

I doubt expanding employment opportunities was the motivating factor in the 1930s when the UK converted car factories into Spitfire production lines to prepare for war with Nazi Germany.

Yet communicating to the public what war readiness really means must surely be just as important today.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. Pic: Reuters

Mr Healey also chose this moment of national peril to attempt to score political points by criticising the previous Conservative government for hollowing out the armed forces – when the military was left in a similarly underfunded state during the last Labour government.

A report by a group of MPs, released on the same day as Mr Healey rattled his sabre at Russia, underlined the scale of the challenge the UK faces.

HMS Somerset flanking Russian ship Yantar near UK waters. on January 22, 2025.
File pic: Royal Navy/PA
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HMS Somerset flanking Russian ship Yantar near UK waters. on January 22, 2025.
File pic: Royal Navy/PA

It accused the government of lacking a national plan to defend itself from attack.

The Defence Select Committee also warned that Mr Healey, Sir Keir Starmer and the rest of the cabinet are moving at a “glacial” pace to fix the problem and are failing to launch a “national conversation on defence and security” – something the prime minister had promised last year.

The report backed up the findings of a wargame podcast by Sky News and Tortoise that simulated what might happen if Russia launched waves of missile strikes against the UK.

The series showed how successive defence cuts since the end of the Cold War means the army, navy and air force are woefully equipped to defend the home front.

Read more:
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Briton who volunteered as spy for Russia jailed

But credible national defences also require the wider country to be prepared for war.

A set of plans setting out what must happen in the transition from peace to war was quietly shelved at the start of this century, so there no longer exists a rehearsed and resourced system to ensure local authorities, businesses and the wider population know what to do.

John Healey.
Pic: PA
Image:
John Healey.
Pic: PA

Mr Healey revealed that the Russian spy ship had directed a laser light presumably to dazzle pilots of a Royal Air Force reconnaissance aircraft that was tracking it.

“That Russian action is deeply dangerous,” he said.

“So, my message to Russia and to Putin, is this: We see you. We know what you are doing. And if Yantar travels south this week, we are ready.”

He did not spell out what this might mean but it could include attempts to block the Russian vessel’s passage, or even fire warning shots to force it to retreat.

The Russian ship Yantar is docked in Buenos Aires in 2017
Pic: David Fernandez/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
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The Russian ship Yantar is docked in Buenos Aires in 2017
Pic: David Fernandez/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

However, any direct engagement could trigger a retaliation from Moscow.

For now, the Russian ship – fitted with spying equipment to monitor critical national infrastructure such as communications cables on the seabed – has moved away from the UK coast. It was at its closest between 5 and 11 November.

The military is still tracking its movements closely in case the ship returns.

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