They came in their droves: thousands of Reform supporters poured into a vast hall in a Birmingham conference centre on Sunday to hear Nigel Farage.
His backers brought with them Union Jacks, and brandished Reform placards. There were even one or two red baseball caps emblazoned with the slogan “Make Britain Great Again”, which seemed fitting for an event that felt quite Trumpian in style and tone.
Mr Farage came onto the stage to pounding music, smoke machines, fireworks, and a sea of “it’s time for Reform” placards to a 5,000-strong crowd with a speech that spoke about how Britain was broken and it was time for Reform.
He said his party would be the “leading voice of opposition” as he attacked ‘the establishment’ in all its guises, from the Conservative Party to Labour, the BBC, and Channel 4 to the Governor of the Bank of England.
While detractors describe Mr Farage’s platform as a type of dog-whistle politics that does little but to stoke grievances and division, there is an audience for him and his policies that politicians in larger parties should ignore at their peril.
When I spoke to many people in the hall afterwards, they were overwhelmingly former Conservative voters disillusioned with their old party.
One woman, who had travelled over from Hull for the rally told me she thought there were a lot of “silent people who may be frightened to say they are voting Reform”.
“I think it’s going to be shock,” she said.
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Image: The crowd in Birmingham. Pic: Reuters
2024 is the election for ‘the other parties’
The rise of the ‘other’ parties is a clear theme of this election campaign as the Liberal Democrats, who won just 11 seats back in 2019, now eye getting back to the levels of seats they enjoyed – in the 1940s or 1950s – before it was wiped out in 2015 on the back of the coalition years.
Nigel Farage’s Reform, meanwhile, is on 16.2% in our Sky News poll tracker, just behind the Tories on 20%.
Mr Farage likes to make the argument that Labour could be heading to a landslide on a lower voter share.
Recent analysis in the Financial Times suggested Labour could win a record 450 seats – about 70% – on just 41% of the votes, lower than the figure Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour achieved in 2017, while the Lib Dems could pick up 50 seats with a lower share of the vote than Reform with just a few seats at best. If it turns out anything like this, prepare for plenty of noise from Mr Farage.
Whether undecided voters or those leaning to Reform stick with them on Thursday is a big unknown of this election. Tories are nervous, knowing that big Reform votes piling up in their constituencies could cost them their seat.
In 2019, the majority of Conservatives did not have a threat from the right, as the Brexit Party stood down candidates with a Brexit-backing Conservative candidate. They stood but 275 or 632 seats.
This time around, Reform is everywhere and no one feels safe: one poll put James Cleverly’s Braintree constituency, supposedly the 19th safest Conservative seat, on a knife edge as Reform clocks up an estimated 22% vote share in his Essex constituency.
Image: Pic: Reuters
Tories in all-out war
The Conservatives, who began this campaign trying not to get into a fight with Mr Farage (perhaps for fear of further alienating their traditional voters) are now at all-out war as they try to salvage as many seats as they can.
On Sunday the party said if “just 130,000 voters currently considering a vote for Reform or the Lib Dems voted Conservative, it would be enough to stop Labour’s supermajority”.
The prime minister, meanwhile, has become increasingly vocal in his criticisms of Reform and Mr Farage as the party looks for a way to pull voters back.
Mr Sunak has been vocal in his criticism of Mr Farage as a “Putin appeaser” after the Reform leader suggested Ukraine enter peace talks – something which Ukraine has emphatically ruled out unless Russia retreats from its territory.
The prime minister also spoke of his “anger and hurt” over revelations – contested by Reform – in a Channel 4 undercover report of a Reform canvasser calling Mr Sunak a “f****** P***”.
This, combined with a Reform organiser making homophobic remarks and candidates being suspended for racist, antisemitic and sexist views has caused difficulties for Mr Farage in recent days.
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1:29
Sunak ‘hurt’ over Reform race row
Tensions around Farage starting to show
In our interview in Birmingham on Sunday, some of those tensions were beginning to show.
For a start, the politician who had appeared with right-wing Tories such as potential future leader Dame Priti Patel at the Conservative Party conference last October, and openly toyed about returning to the fold, now ruled out any sort of tie-up.
Having spoken but a month ago about a reverse takeover of the Tories and refusing to rule out one day rejoining the party, on Sunday he was clear he would not rejoin, and wanted nothing to do with the Conservatives.
Image: Pic: Reuters
It comes after a clutch of senior figures, including Dame Priti, indicated that Mr Farage would now not be welcomed back into the party in the wake of the backlash over his claim the West provoked Russia to invade Ukraine and the racism row engulfing Reform.
He equally was more equivocal than he had been about Andrew Tate in the past, making it clear to me that he “disavowed’ him, and was also highly critical of Reform events organiser George James who made homophobic remarks, saying he was “furious” when he saw the footage (also in the Channel 4 report) of Mr James describing the Pride flag as “degenerate” and criticising the police for displaying the flag.
“They should be out catching the n***** not promoting the f******”,” he said in the report.
Mr Farage said Mr James was “crass, drunken, rude and wrong” and told me he had been asked to remove his membership. But he also said he was “down a few drinks” explaining: “We could all say silly things when we’re a bit drunk.”
When I asked him if people really say things like this when they are drunk, Mr Farage said: “People say all sorts of things when they’re drunk and often don’t remember. But it was awful.”
So awful that one Reform candidate announced on Sunday evening they were standing down and would instead back their local Conservative in the constituency of Erewash.
The question for Reform is whether their potential voters, looking at some of the controversy surrounding the party, decide it’s not for them after all.
What is absolutely clear is Reform’s performance will help determine that of the Conservatives on Thursday night as the election results come in.
If he’s successful, Mr Farage will be heading for parliament, not only giving him a bigger national platform but a democratic mandate. That spells trouble for a Conservative party already in turmoil.
Former Commons leader Lucy Powell has been crowned Labour’s new deputy leader in a closely fought race against Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson.
Ms Powell received 87,407 votes to Ms Phillipson’s 73,536 – a majority of 13,871 – in a contest that was widely perceived as a referendum on Sir Keir Starmer’s popularity with the membership.
Ms Powell was seen as the “anti-Starmer” candidate given she was sacked from cabinet just last month, and centred her campaign on being an independent voice for the backbenches.
Ms Phillipson was seen as Number 10’s preferred option, and she had pitched herself as the “unity candidate”, warning that voting for her opponent would result in “internal debate and divisions that leads us back to opposition”.
However speaking to Sky News’s political editor Beth Rigby following the result, Ms Powell insisted she would be a “friend” to the prime minister, adding: “I am confident we can work well together.”
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She said she was not here to “write an alternative policy platform” but rather “to make sure Labour values and beliefs are right at the heart of the conversation, and that we’re giving a really clear sense of who we’re for”.
Ms Powell’s earlier victory speech made clear where she thought Labour was going wrong, and what she would challenge the government on.
The Manchester Central MP said Labour “won’t win by trying to out-Reform Reform, but by building a broad progressive consensus”.
She said that started with “wrestling back the political megaphone” from Reform leader Nigel Farage, and “setting the agenda more strongly”.
“Let’s be honest, we’ve let Farage and his ilk run away with it. He wants to blame immigration for all the country’s problems. We reject that,” she said.
“Our diagnosis is different, that for too long the country and the economy has worked in the interests of the few, not the many.”
The reference to “for the many not the few” – the slogan during Jeremy Corbyn’s time at the helm, was not lost on his then shadow chancellor John McDonnell.
The veteran left-winger said on X: “The Labour Party members have spoken & the message is clear, they want change. It’s good to see a return to references to the Labour Party serving once more the many not the few & that Labour must not try out Reform, Reform. Our members realise a new start is desperately needed.”
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The scandal sparked a reshuffle in which Ms Powell was one of the only casualties. It makes the new partnership potentially very awkward for Sir Keir, especially as his new deputy will be free to speak out against his policies from the back benches rather than being bound by collective responsibility like Ms Phillipson.
However in a possible olive branch, Sky News understands Ms Powell will be asked to attend political cabinet meetings, even though she will not officially be a member of cabinet.
Tory chairman Kevin Hollinrake said “weak Keir Starmer” has had an unwanted deputy leader “imposed on him by the Labour Party”, adding: “The failure of the Keir Starmer candidate, Bridget Philipson, is another defeat of the prime minister’s authority.”
Turnout for the vote was low – just 16.6%, suggesting a lack of enthusiasm among party members and its affiliates.
Sir Keir congratulated Ms Powell after the results were announced, saying she “has always been a proud defender of Labour values, and that is exactly what we need at this moment”.
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4:21
PM: Powell is ‘a proud defender of Labour values’
He echoed some of her language around immigration, as he attacked the Tories for this week suggesting they supported a policy to deport people who have settled in the UK legally, something Reform UK has advocated.
“That is what we’re up against on the right of politics, a politics of division and grievance that wants to take this great country to a very dark place”, Sir Keir said.
PM warns of ‘battle for the soul of our nation’
The prime minister is under pressure as the party plummets in the polls, with many MPs on the left predicting he could be gone by May if the local elections go badly.
He said it was a “bad result” and “a reminder that people need to look out their window and see change and renewal in their community, opportunities for their children, public services rebuilt, the cost of living crisis tackled”.
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2:16
Phillipson ‘disappointed to lose’
“We must unite. We must keep our focus on what is, in my view, the defining battle for the soul of our nation. I know that Lucy will do just that,” he said.
Saturday’s result is the culmination of a six week contest, with the pair having had to secure nominations from 80 MPs in the first round and then win the backing of 5% of local parties or Labour affiliated groups before making it to the final vote.
The manhunt for a migrant who sexually assaulted a schoolgirl, and was released from prison in error, is ongoing.
Hadush Gerberslasie Kebatu was jailed for 12 months earlier this year after he sexually assaulted a 14-year-old girl and a woman in Epping.
He had been staying in the Bell Hotel in Epping and his arrest triggered large-scale protests and disorder.
The Ethiopian national, who came to the UK on a small boat in the summer, is now being searched for by the police after he was accidentally freed on Friday.
Image: Hadush Kebatu, jailed for two sexual assaults in Epping. Pic: Essex Police / PA
How many prisoners are released in error?
According to government statistics published in July, 262 prisoners were released in error in the 12 months to March 2025 – a 128% increase from 115 the previous year.
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The report states: “Of the 262 releases in error, 233 of these releases in error occurred from prison establishments, while 29 were released in error at the courts.
“Releases in error from establishments could also be a result of errors by the court.”
This is out of a total prison population across England and Wales of roughly 86,000.
Sky News has contacted the HM Prison & Probation Service to know how many of the 262 prisoners have since been found and returned to custody.
In September 2024, Sky News reported how dozens of people released from jail under the government’s emergency prison scheme were freed by mistake.
The Labour government said it was forced to release hundreds of inmates early because prisons were at capacity.
Image: William Fernandez. Pic: PA
Kebatu, who is thought to be in the London area, was due to be deported when he was mistakenly released from HMP Chelmsford on Friday.
Previous high-profile manhunts
William Fernandez, who was awaiting trial for sexual assault, was released from HMP Wormwood by error in March 2021. He then went on to rape a 16-year-old girl and sexually assault a young woman.
Image: Joseph McCann. Pic: Police handout
In December 2019, the prisons and probation service “apologised unreservedly” after serial rapist Joseph McCann was freed to commit a series of sex attacks on women and children.
A murder investigation has been launched after a 19-year-old was stabbed in south west London, earlier this week.
Police and the London Ambulance Service were called to the scene on Lavender Hill, close to Clapham Junction, on Tuesday afternoon following reports of a stabbing.
Rinneau Perrineau, 19 and who was known as Ren by his family and friends, was treated at the scene for stab wounds.
He was taken to hospital in a critical condition but died on Friday. One arrest has been made, the Metropolitan Police said.
In a statement, Rinneau’s family said: “Ren was loved by many, he was always around his family. He will be dearly missed.”
Acting Borough Commander Amanda Mawhinney, who leads policing in the area, said: “Our thoughts are with the victim’s loved ones at this terrible time.
“This was a shocking crime committed in broad daylight. A teenager’s life was taken, and his family and friends have suffered an irrevocable loss.
“Our officers are making every effort to bring those responsible to justice. Residents may notice a police presence around the scene of the crime, as patrols have been stepped up in the local area.”
Officers are urging anyone who was in Beauchamp Road on Tuesday afternoon between 3:20 and 3:30 to call 101.