It is the first big moment of election night. The exit poll is the moment millions tune in for a first sniff of the eventual result of the general election.
And in Election 2024 this poll, with its impressive track record, sometimes down to a margin of only a few seats, will, once again, be a key part of broadcasters’ coverage – including here at Sky News – on Thursday night.
The current model was devised in 2005 by Professor John Curtice and statistician David Firth and it has been consistently reliable, bar 2015 when the seat numbers suggested a hung parliament and David Cameron scraped a thin majority.
But for the most part, its accuracy has been dependable. In 2010, it correctly predicted the exact number of seats for the Conservatives.
Commissioned by the broadcasters – Sky, BBC and ITV – the fieldwork is carried out by IPSOS UK who will have interviewers at 133 polling stations around the country this year.
People who have just voted will be asked to privately fill in a replica ballot paper and place it into a ballot box as they leave their local community centre, church hall or station.
Michael Clemence, from IPSOS UK, says this and the scale are part of what distinguishes the exit poll from the many surveys that have come before it.
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“We’re going to be doing over 17,000 interviews on the day. And also we’re dealing with people’s behaviour. So we’re not asking people how they intend to vote.
“We’re talking to electors who just voted. And I’m asking exactly what they just did. So you’ve cut out the error in prediction polling.”
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Researchers can only deploy to a fraction of the total constituencies in England, Scotland and Wales, so locations are chosen to best reflect the demographics of the country with an urban and rural spread.
However, many of the locations will be in marginal seats, where the swing between the main parties will be tracked.
The same polling stations are targeted year after year so the swing from the last election’s exit poll, along with other data at constituency level, can be analysed by those crunching the numbers.
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The data collected at the polling stations is sent back by interviewers to IPSOS UK at several stages throughout the day.
It’s processed there and sent via a secure data pipeline to the broadcasters’ statisticians and political scientists who are locked down in a secret location in the capital.
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“Our phones are taken away from us, there are security guards. So we don’t communicate with the outside world at all, we just talk to each other. So it’s a very strange feeling – as people are still going to the polls – already having a sense of what the result will be,” says Professor Will Jennings.
The Sky News election analyst and political scientist will be one of those inside that sealed and secret room on election day – and the key thing experts will be looking at is that change in voter behaviour.
“We’ll model the change in the vote at each of those polling stations, and we’ll try and look for patterns in that change and also particular characteristics of constituencies that might predict change and might predict what we’re seeing across the country,” says Professor Jennings.
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“We will throw a lot of different variables at the data during the day, whether it’s the percentage of the local constituency that we think voted leave in the referendum, the number of people in working class jobs, the number of people who own a car, for example, it could be anything,” adds Professor Jennings.
“And we’ll try just to look for patterns in that data to explain as much variation as possible so that we know that our estimates are as reliable as they can be.”
By 10pm their work is done – and the fruit of that data gathering and analysis – the first real glimpse of the electorate’s verdict – is being digested and picked apart.
Keir Starmer will sign a century-long partnership with Ukraine today, as the prime minister makes his first visit to the war-torn country in an effort to shore up support for Kyiv – just days ahead of the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House.
Sir Keir said the 100-year agreement underpinned Britain’s “steadfast support” for Ukraine as he reiterated European unity in the face of Russian aggression. The treaty and political declaration will be laid in parliament in the coming weeks.
“Putin’s ambition to wrench Ukraine away for its closest partners has been a monumental strategic failure. Instead, we are closer than ever and this partnership will take that friendship to the next level,” said the prime minister.
“The power of our long-term friendships cannot be underestimated. Supporting Ukraine to defend itself from Russia’s barbaric invasion and rebuild a prosperous, sovereign future, is vital to the government’s security and Plan for Change.”
The PM’s visit is part of a wider effort on the part of European leaders to shore up support for Kyiv as they ramp up discussions over regional security ahead of the handover of power in Washington. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland on Wednesday.
The flurry of diplomatic activity comes as the conflict between Ukraine and Russia has intensified ahead of the inauguration of president-elect Trump, with Vladimir Putin trying to take as much territory as possible ahead of expected peace talks.
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On Wednesday, Ukraine’s state energy company was forced into emergency cuts after a massive Russian military attack.
Russia controls around a fifth of Ukraine after nearly three years of war and says any deal to end the conflict must take that into account.
In September 2022, it proclaimed four regions that it only partly controls as part of its own territory, which was condemned by the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) as an “attempted illegal annexation”.
While President Joe Biden was steadfast in the US’s continuing support of Ukraine’s military effort, Trump has made it clear he wants to end the conflict quickly, hastening discussions about what a settlement might look like between Kyiv and Moscow.
In November, President Zelenskyy said for the first time in an interview with Sky News that Ukraine was prepared to temporarily cede territory to Russia to end the war if the conflict was frozen along current lines.
He added after a ceasefire was agreed, Kyiv could negotiate for the return of seized territory.
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Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke to Sky’s Stuart Ramsay in Kyiv back in November about how a ceasefire could work.
Sir Keir has also changed his tone, from insisting allies must “double down” on support for Ukraine for “as long as it takes” at the November G20 summit, to saying British policy was now “to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position for negotiations”.
The prime minister will want to reiterate to President Zelenskyy that nothing is off the table, as the duo discuss the ongoing conflict, the impending Trump presidency and what a settlement could look like.
As part of the partnership deal, the UK will bolster military collaboration on maritime security through a new framework to strengthen the Baltic, Black and Azov seas.
President Zelenskyy has reportedly told journalists the two leaders will discuss the possibility of British troops joining a post-war peacekeeping force, as other European leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron – who visited the PM at his Chequers country residence last week – and Tusk have similar conversations.
Ukraine relies on US support to continue the conflict, given it provides the bulk of military aid. But Trump has made it clear he is reluctant to keep funding the war, saying during the election campaign he would end it “within 24 hours” of taking office.
He has subsequently acknowledged that ending the conflict will be more difficult, but his administration is keen to press ahead: Trump has said he will arrange a call with Putin soon after his inauguration on 20 January, while the new US envoy to Ukraine, retired lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, said last week he wanted a solution to the war in the first 100 days of office.
The discussion around peacekeeping forces is part of a wider conversation among European allies about what security guarantees should be put in place for Ukraine, including buffer zones and the threat of more weapons for Ukraine in the absence of NATO membership.
President Zelenskyy has said any guarantees must be backed up by the US as the prospect of a NATO membership invitation fades from view.
Ukraine becoming a member of NATO is a clear red line for Moscow, with Putin describing Kyiv joining the security alliance as “an unacceptable threat”.
Last week, Trump acknowledged Moscow’s longstanding opposition to Ukraine’s ambition to join NATO, given it would mean “Russia has somebody right on their doorstep, and I can understand their feeling about that”.
European leaders are concerned Trump will force Ukraine into an unjust peace deal, and they will be shut out of the negotiations which will shape the security of the continent for many years.
NATO chief Mark Rutte last month cautioned Trump over his plans for a peace deal, warning it would lead to the West’s enemies “high fiving” and would only serve to embolden China, North Korea and Iran.
The PM has come under criticism from Conservative rivals for not visiting Ukraine sooner, with former defence secretary Grant Shapps saying he was “astonished” is has taken the PM six months in power to visit the country.
However, Sir Keir has met the Ukrainian leader six times, as well as hosting him twice at Number 10 since taking office in July.
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