Here’s the deflation breakdown for July 2024 — in one chart
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Inflation cooled below 3% in July 2024, the first time it dropped beneath that level in more than three years.
While many areas of the U.S. economy are disinflating — meaning their prices are still rising, though at a slower rate — some have been outright deflating. That means their prices have actually declined.
Deflation has largely occurred for physical goods, though it has also appeared in categories such as airline fares, gasoline and various food items, according to the consumer price index.
These are “micro pockets” of deflation, said Joe Seydl, senior markets economist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
But the deflationary dynamic is less widespread than it was earlier in the pandemic, when the unwinding of contorted supply-and-demand dynamics made it more pronounced, economists said.
“Broadly speaking, deflation for various items is increasingly less broad-based,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.
Consumers shouldn’t expect a broad and sustained fall in prices across the U.S. economy. That generally doesn’t happen unless there’s a recession, economists said.
Why goods prices have fallen
“Core” goods — commodity prices excluding those related to food and energy — have declined by about 2% since July 2023, on average, according to CPI data.
They fell 0.3% during the month, from June to July 2024.
Demand for physical goods soared in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic as consumers were confined to their homes and couldn’t spend on things such as concerts, travel or dining out.
The health crisis also snarled global supply chains, meaning goods weren’t hitting the shelves as quickly as consumers wanted them.
Such supply-and-demand dynamics drove up prices.
The environment has changed, however.
To that point, the initial pandemic-era craze of consumers fixing up their homes and upgrading their home offices has diminished, cooling prices. Supply-chain issues have also largely unwound, economists said.
Furniture and bedding prices are down more than 5% since July 2023, according to CPI data. Prices have also fallen over the past year for dishes and flatware (down about 8%), laundry equipment (-6%), nonelectric cookware (-10%), toys (-3%), and tools and hardware (-1%), according to the CPI.
Apparel prices are also down, for men’s and women’s outerwear (-12% and -4%, respectively), and infants and toddlers’ apparel (-4%), for example.
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Prices for new and used vehicles have fallen by 1% and 11%, respectively, since July 2023. Car and truck rental prices have deflated about 6%.
Car prices were among the first to surge when the economy reopened broadly early in 2021, amid a shortage of semiconductor chips essential for manufacturing.
“Vehicle prices remain under pressure from improved inventory and elevated financing costs,” Sarah House and Aubrey George, economists at Wells Fargo Economics, wrote in a note in July.
Higher financing costs are the result of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to tame high inflation. Economists expect central bank officials to start cutting rates at their next policy meeting in September.
Outside of supply-demand dynamics, the U.S. dollar’s strength relative to other global currencies has also helped rein in prices for goods, economists said. This makes it less expensive for U.S. companies to import items from overseas, since the dollar can buy more.
Long-term forces such as globalization have also helped, by increasing imports of more lower-priced goods from China, economists said.
Deflation for airfare, food and electronics
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Airline fares have declined about 3% over the past year, according to CPI data.
The drop is partly attributable to a decline in jet fuel prices, said Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics. Average aviation jet fuel prices are down about 17% from last year, according to the International Air Transport Association.
Airlines have also increased the volume of seats available on domestic routes, largely by flying bigger planes, Hayley Berg, lead economist at travel site Hopper, wrote in April.
This summer, “we’ve repeatedly seen airlines slash prices on many routes for travel in the next few months,” wrote Gunnar Olson, flight deal analyst at Thrifty Traveler. “It’s led us to declare that this is the best summer ever for travel.”
Grocery prices have fallen for items such as cereal, rice, bread, ham, fish, cheese, ice cream, potatoes, apples, bananas, margarine and snacks, according to CPI data.
Each grocery item has its own supply-and-demand dynamics that can influence pricing, economists said. For example, apple prices have deflated almost 15% in the past year due to a supply glut.
Additionally, there have been more price promotions lately at grocery stores, with a few “major retailers recently announcing price cuts that are likely to pressure competitors’ pricing,” wrote House and George of Wells Fargo.
Other categories’ deflationary dynamics may be happening only on paper.
For example, in the CPI data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics controls for quality improvements over time. Electronics such as televisions, cellphones and computers continually get better, meaning consumers generally get more for the same amount of money.
That shows up as a price decline in the CPI data.
National Grid Renewables has broken ground on its 100 MW Apple River Solar Project in Polk County, Wisconsin.
The Wisconsin solar farm, which will use US-made First Solar Series 6 Plus bifacial modules, will be constructed by The Boldt Company, creating 150 construction and service jobs. Apple River Solar will generate over $36 million in direct economic benefits over its first 20 years.
Once it comes online in late 2025, Apple River Solar will supply clean energy to Xcel Energy, which serves customers throughout the Upper Midwest. According to National Grid Renewables, the solar farm will generate enough energy to power around 26,000 homes annually. It will also offset about 129,900 metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions each year – equivalent to taking 30,900 cars off the road.
“We are excited to see this project begin as it underscores our dedication to delivering clean, reliable and affordable energy to our customers,” said Karl Hoesly, President, Xcel Energy-Wisconsin and Michigan. “This project is an important step in those goals while bringing significant economic benefits to Polk County and the local townships.”
Electrek reported in February that Xcel Energy, Minnesota’s largest utility, expects to cut more than 80% – and possibly up to 88% – of its emissions by 2030, putting it on track to hit Minnesota’s goal of net zero by 2040. It also says it’s on track to achieve its clean energy goals for all the Upper Midwest states it serves – Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Michigan.
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Tesla has announced that it will finally deliver 500 kW charging as it is about to install its long-awaited V4 Supercharger cabinets.
The rollout of Supercharger V4 has been a strange one, to say the least.
Tesla has been deploying the new charging stations for two years and calling them “Supercharger V4”, but it has only been deploying the charging stalls.
Supercharger stations are made of two main parts: the stalls, which are where the charging cable is located, and the cabinets, which are generally located further back and include all the power electronics.
For all these new “Supercharger V4”, Tesla was actually using Supercharger V3 cabinets. This has been limiting the power output of the charging stations to 250 kW – although
Today, Tesla officially announced its “V4 Cabinet”, which the automaker claims will enable of “delivering up to 500kW for cars and 1.2MW for Semi.”
Here are the main features of the V4 Cabinet as per Tesla:
- Faster charging: Supports 400V-1000V vehicle architectures, including 30% faster charging for Cybertruck. S3XY vehicles enjoy 250kW charge rates they already experience on V3 Cabinet — charging up to 200 miles in 15 minutes.
- Faster deployments: V4 Cabinet powers 8 posts, 2X the stalls per cabinet. Lower footprint and complexity = more sites coming online faster.
- Next-generation hardware: Cutting-edge power electronics designed to be the most reliable on the planet, with 3X power density enabling higher throughput with lower costs.
Tesla reports that its first sites with the new V4 Cabinets are going into permitting now. The company expects its first sites to open next year.
We recently reported about Tesla’s new Oasis Supercharger project, which includes larger solar arrays and battery packs to operate the charging station mostly off-grid.
Early in the deployment of the Supercharger network, Tesla promised to add solar arrays and batteries to all Supercharger stations, and Musk even said that most stations would be able to operate off-grid.
While Tesla did add solar and batteries to a few stations, the vast majority of them don’t have their own power system or have only minimal solar canopies.
Back in 2016, I asked Musk about this, and he said that it would now happen as Tesla had the “pieces now in place” with Supercharger V3, Powerpack V2, and SolarCity:
It took about 8 years, but it sounds like the pieces are now getting actually in place with Supercharger V4, Megapacks, and this new Oasis project.
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Hyundai has a new secret weapon it’s about ready to unleash. To revamp the brand in China and counter BYD’s surge, Hyundai is launching a new AI-powered EV next year. The new model will be Hyundai’s first dedicated electric car for the world’s largest EV market.
With the help of Haomo, a Chinese autonomous startup, Hyundai will launch its first EV equipped with generative AI. It will also be its first model designed specifically for China.
A Hyundai Motor official said (via The Korea Herald) the company is “working to load the software” onto the new EV model, “which will be released in the Chinese market next year.” The spokesperson added, “The level of autonomous driving is somewhere between 2 and 2.5.”
In comparison, Tesla’s Autopilot is considered a level 2 advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) on the SAE scale (0 to 5), meaning it offers limited hands-free features.
With Autopilot, you still have to keep your eyes on the road and hands on the steering wheel, or the system will notify you and eventually disengage.
Haomo’s system, DriveGPT, unveiled last spring, takes inspiration from the OpenAI’s popular ChatGPT.
The system can continuously update in real-time to optimize decision-making by absorbing traffic data patterns. According to Haomo, DriveGPT is used in around 20 models as it looks to play a bigger role in China.
Hyundai hopes new AI-powered EV boosts sales in China
Electric vehicle sales continue surging in China. According to Rho Motion, China set another EV sales record last month with 1.2 million units sold, up 50% from October 2023.
Over 8.4 million EVs were sold in China in the first ten months of 2024, a notable 38% increase from last year.
BYD continues to dominate its home market. According to Autovista24, BYD accounted for 32.9% of all PHEV and EV (NEV) sales in China through September, with over half of the top 20 best-selling EV models.
Tesla was second with a 6.5% share of the market, but keep in mind these numbers only include plug-in models (PHEV).
Like most foreign automakers, Hyundai is struggling to keep up with the influx of low-cost electric models in China. Beijing Hyundai’s sales have been slipping since 2017. Through September, Korean automaker’s share of the Chinese market fell to just 1.2%.
Last month, Hyundai opened its first overseas digital R&D center in China to help kick off its return to the region.
According to local reports, Hyundai is partnering with other local tech companies like Thundersoft, a smart cockpit provider, and others in China to power up its next-gen EVs
With its first AI-powered EV launching next year, Hyundai hopes to turn things around in the region quickly. The new model will be one of five to launch in China through 2026.
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