Replacing China in copper supply chain is ‘unfeasible,’ warns WoodMac, as the West seeks shift
A worker tying copper wire rods before loading them onto a truck in Huai’an, in China’s Jiangsu Province.
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images
Western countries seeking to diversify away from China’s dominance in copper could delay the energy transition besides raising costs, while its complete replacement would be ‘unfeasible,’ according to Wood Mackenzie.
China leads the world in key segments of the copper supply chain, with the critical metal serving as an important component in emerging technologies such as renewable energy, energy storage and electric vehicles.
As the U.S., Canada, Australia, and European countries seek to displace the country’s hold on copper through subsidies and investment, Wood Mackenzie warns that the dual aims of decarbonization and reduced dependence on Beijing are at odds with one another.
“Hundreds of billions of dollars in new copper processing and fabrication capacity would be required to replace China,” the natural resources’ data analytics firm said a report released on Thursday, adding that demand for the metal could grow by 75% to 56 million tons by 2050.
“This would create inefficiencies that would result in significantly higher-priced finished goods and increase the cost and timeliness of the energy transition,” it added.
Existing mines and projects under construction will meet only 80% of copper needs by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency, indicating a potential shortage of the metal.
According to Wood Mackenzie, most of the world’s initial mining of raw materials occurs primarily in the Americas and Africa, with China’s domestic mining output constituting just 8% of global production.
Though that share rises closer to 20% after accounting for China’s overseas mining assets, the country will still need to secure additional supplies to meet its needs. The rest of the world has enough primary mine supply to meet current requirements, the report said.
The copper supply chain, however, comprises several key phases, including mining, smelting and refining, fabricating, and the manufacturing of finished goods.
And what the rest of the world has in copper mines, it lacks in China’s dominance in downstream processing and manufacturing, according to the report.
“As governments and manufacturers aim to diversify away from China, it is crucial to consider the entire supply chain, not just mining operations,” said Nick Pickens, research director of global mining at Wood Mackenzie.
“While copper supply risks can be mitigated and some rebalancing has begun in various countries, the scale of China’s dominance in the supply chain means complete replacement is unfeasible.”
Molten copper flowing into molds at a smelting plant in Wuzhou, China.
He Huawen | Visual China Group | Getty Images
The report outlines that 80% of copper mining produces copper concentrate, which must be processed at smelters and refineries to produce copper cathode. Fabricators then use that material to make copper components that wind up in finished goods.
Since 2000, China has been responsible for 75% of the world’s smelter capacity growth, according to Wood Mackenzie’s data.
“A scenario without China for the copper supply chain would require a substantial increase in processing capacity to meet energy transition targets,” said Pickens.
The report said that there are currently no plans for new primary smelting capacities in North America or Europe. Instead, the U.S. has focused on secondary markets and copper recycling, recently establishing its first secondary smelter for multi-metal recycling in the country.
China also accounts for around 80% of additions in copper and copper alloy fabrication capacity globally since 2019, with it now having half of the world’s fabrication capacity.
Legislations like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the U.S. have aimed to subsidize critical mineral investments. However, with copper, such efforts have met hurdles in the U.S. and Europe due to factors such as low utilization, high operating costs, and environmental regulations, the report said.
“Pragmatism and compromise will be essential to achieve net zero goals without imposing excessive costs on taxpayers. Easing global trade restrictions could be one necessary concession,” Pickens said.
Kenworth has announced the addition of Bendix’ Fusion advanced driver assist system (ADAS) to its line of options on the T680 line of Class 8 commercial semi trucks – a lineup that includes the Next Generation T680E battery electric semi truck.
One of the many new trucks revealed at the 2025 ACT Expo in Anaheim, California earlier this year, the Next Generation Kenworth T680E featured the latest advancements in battery-electric technology, an enhanced exterior design, and a suite of new, in-cab technology that extends to the addition of three Bendix Fusion version: ADAS, ADAS PRO, and ADAS PREMIER.
All three of the announced ADAS packages offer updated Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) with ACC Stop and Auto Go™, a new Pedestrian Autonomous Emergency Braking (PAEB) feature, and a new High Beam Assist feature to reduce the likelihood of blinding oncoming drivers supported by the addition of a new forward-looking camera.
Those updates are in addition to the ADAS units Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB), Multi-Lane Autonomous Emergency Braking, Highway Departure Braking (HDB), and Stationary Vehicle Braking (SVB), Lane Departure Warning, and Bendix® Blindspotter® Side Object Detection already available on previous versions of the ADAS-equipped Kenworth.
Kenworth migital mirrors
Now that we’ve got that acronym-loaded word-salad out of the way, we can get to the point: the newest generation of electric trucks is easier and safer to drive – and not just safer for the truck’s operators, but for the people who share the roads with them, too.
Kenworth T680E electric semi
The Next-Generation T680E is available with up to 605 peak hp and 1,850 lb-ft of torque from a PACCAR Integrated ePowertrain fed from a 500 kWh li-ion battery pack good for more than 200 miles of loaded range. The updated Class 8 BEV is rated up to 82,000 lb. gross vehicle weight ratings (GVWR), and can get that load back up to speed quickly with a 350 kW peak charge rate that means the T680E can charge up to 90% in just two hours.
That system isn’t just more efficient than the first generation truck, it’s also more serviceable than it was before.
“This move to a fully integrated and ground-up PACCAR design means we were able to design for enhanced serviceability,” explains Joe Adams, Kenworth’s chief engineer. “Providing easier access to the Master Service Disconnects for improved safety and increased uptime and allowing the use of the DAVIE service tool for troubleshooting and diagnostics.”
The Next Generation Kenworth T680E electric semi truck is designed for short and regional-haul, LTL, and drayage operations. It’s available as a day cab as either a tractor or straight truck in a 6×4 axle configuration.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Kenworth; via Kenworth.
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Just like it says on the tin – retailers are advertising killer deals on the fun-to-drive Kia Niro EV, with one midwest auto dealer reporting more than $10,000 off the sticker price of the Niro EV Wind. That’s nearly 25% off the top line price!
SKIP THE STORY: get straight to the deals.
The Kia Niro EV gets overshadowed by its objectively excellent EV6 and EV9 stablemates – both of which are currently available with substantial lease cash and 0% APR financing, in fact – but that doesn’t mean it’s not an excellent little electric runabout in its own right.
The last time I had a Niro EV tester, my kids loved it, I liked that it was quicker and more tossable than I expected it to be, and my wife liked the fact that “it doesn’t look electric. It looks normal.” And, with well over 200 miles of real world range (EPA-rated range is 253 miles), it was more than up to the task of commuting around Chicago and making the trip up to the Great Wolf Lodge in Gurnee and back without even needing to look for a charger.
It’s not the primary family hauler I’d choose – but as a second car? As a primary car for a slightly smaller family (1-2 kids, instead of 3-4)? The Kia Niro EV Wind, with a $42,470 MSRP, seems like a solid, “can’t go wrong” sort of choice. You know?
You won’t even have to pay that much, though. Raymond Kia in Antioch, Illinois is advertising a $42,470 Niro EV for $32,431 (that’s $10,039, or about 24% off the MSRP), and several others are advertising prices in the $33,000 range.
And, while we’re at it:
Kia Niro EV gallery
SOURCE | IMAGES: CarsDirect, Edmunds, Raymond Kia.
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Many school districts who used EPA funding to help purchase Lion Electric school buses are now stuck with broken down or unsafe vehicles – but Lion’s new Canadian investors seemingly have no plans to make things right.
“All four Lion buses that we own are currently parked and not being used,” Coleen Souza, interim transportation director of Winthrop Public Schools, told Jay Traugott over at Clean Trucking. “Two of them are in need of repairs which would cost us money which we are not willing to invest in because the buses do not run for more than a month before needing more repairs.”
The story is much the same at other US school districts who deployed Lion Electric buses over the last few years – and the trouble they describe isn’t isolated to a single component or system. One district we spoke to had onboard chargers that failed almost immediately after being plugged into a L2 AC charger. Another that spoke to Traugott reported emergency door gaps, power steering failure, loss of power, and braking issues.
As bad as the revelations of safety and drivability issues and $250 million in unresolved debt have been, it’s the objectively stupid design choices that have been the most shocking.
“Lion built an auxiliary diesel heater to heat the bus, essentially writing the manual as they went,” explained a school superintendent in the midwest, who asked not to be named. “It was fascinating to watch but there were design flaws with the heater. For example, the intakes pointed downward and we’re driving across rural roads and the intake sucks in that dirt.”
“Using a diesel-powered heater to warm an electric bus also somewhat defeats the purpose of going 100% zero-emissions,” added Traugott.
Despite a new electric school bus rebate and a fresh cash injection from Vincent Chiara, president of Quebec real estate powerhouse Groupe MACH, and Lion director Pierre Wilkie, however, it seems like no help is coming.
It just gets worse and worse
Despite early speculation – some of it my own, in fact – that the new investors would take the Canadian government up on its offer to help subsidize more electric school bus production and honor the company’s outstanding warranty claims, it appears the only vehicle line the new investors are interested in reviving are the the Class 8 electric semi manufacturing operations in Saint-Jérôme, Quebec.
The US school districts who spent tens of millions of taxpayer dollars in the hopes that Lion buses would help decarbonize their fleets and reduce students’ exposure to harmful diesel emissions? Many of them are back to using diesel, while others are trying to get their deposits back so they can buy something else.
Here’s hoping any school districts on the fence for electrification recognize that their are very real, very well-engineered, and very financially sound electric school bus manufacturers out there who can deliver on their promises.
SOURCES: Chicago Tribune, Clean Trucking, Electrical Business.
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