Nvidia has become world’s ‘most important stock,’ adding pressure to upcoming earnings report
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang makes a speech at an event at COMPUTEX forum in Taipei, Taiwan June 4, 2024.
Ann Wang | Reuters
For Nvidia investors, the past two years have been a joyride. But recently they’ve been on more of a roller coaster.
As the primary beneficiary of the artificial intelligence boom, Nvidia has seen its market cap expand by about nine-fold since the end of 2022. But after reaching a record in June and briefly becoming the world’s most valuable public company, Nvidia proceeded to lose almost 30% of its value over the next seven weeks, shedding roughly $800 billion in market cap.
Now, it’s in the midst of a rally that’s pushed the stock within about 7% of its all-time high.
With the chipmaker set to report quarterly results on Wednesday, the stock’s volatility is top of mind for Wall Street. Any indication that AI demand is waning or that a leading cloud customer is modestly tightening its belt potentially translates into significant revenue slippage.
“It’s the most important stock in the world right now,” EMJ Capital’s Eric Jackson told CNBC‘s “Closing Bell” last week. “If they lay an egg, it would be a major problem for the whole market. I think they’re going to surprise to the upside.”
Nvidia’s report comes weeks after its mega-cap tech peers got through earnings. The company’s name was sprinkled throughout those analyst calls, as Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon and Tesla all spend heavily on Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs) to train AI models and run massive workloads.
In Nvidia’s past three quarters, revenue has more than tripled on an annual basis, with the vast majority of growth coming from the data center business.
Analysts expect a fourth straight quarter of triple-digit growth, but at a reduced pace of 112% to $28.7 billion, according to LSEG. From here, year-over-year comparisons get much tougher, and growth is expected to slow in each of the next six quarters.
Investors will be paying particularly close attention to Nvidia’s forecast for the October quarter. The company is expected to show growth of about 75% to $31.7 billion. Optimistic guidance will suggest that Nvidia’s deep-pocketed clients are signaling an ongoing willingness to open their wallets for the AI buildout, while a disappointing forecast could raise concern that infrastructure spending has gotten frothy.
“Given the steep increase in hyperscale capex over the past 18 months and the strong near-term outlook, investors frequently question the sustainability of the current capex trajectory,” analysts at Goldman Sachs, who recommend buying the stock, wrote in a note last month.
Much of the optimism heading into the report — the stock is up 8% in August — is due to comments from top customers about how much they’re continuing to shell out for data centers and Nvidia-based infrastructure.
Last month, the CEOs of Google and Meta enthusiastically endorsed the pace of their buildouts and said underinvesting was a greater risk than overspending. Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt recently told students at Stanford, in a video that was later removed, that he was hearing from top tech companies “they need $20 billion, $50 billion, $100 billion” worth of processors.
But while Nvidia’s profit margin has been expanding of late, the company still faces questions about the long-term return on investment that clients will see from their purchases of devices that cost tens of thousands of dollars each and are being ordered in bulk.
During Nvidia’s last earnings call in May, CFO Collette Kress provided data points suggesting that cloud providers, which account for over 40% of Nvidia’s revenue, would generate $5 in revenue for every $1 spent on Nvidia chips over four years.
More such stats are likely on the way. Last month, Goldman analysts wrote, following a meeting with Kress, that the company would share further ROI metrics this quarter “to instill confidence in investors.”
Blackwell timing
Jensen Huang, co-founder and chief executive officer of Nvidia Corp., displays the new Blackwell GPU chip during the Nvidia GPU Technology Conference on March 18, 2024.
David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images
The other major question facing Nvidia is the timeline for its next-generation AI chips, dubbed Blackwell. The Information reported earlier this month that the company is facing production issues, which will likely push big shipments back into the first quarter of 2025. Nvidia said at the time that production was on track to ramp in the second half of the year.
The report came after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang surprised investors and analysts in May by saying the company will see “a lot” of Blackwell revenue this fiscal year.
While Nvidia’s current generation of chips, called Hopper, remain the premium option for deploying AI applications like ChatGPT, competition is popping up from Advanced Micro Devices, Google and a smattering of startups, which is pressuring Nvidia to maintain its performance lead through a smooth upgrade cycle.
Even with a potential Blackwell delay, that revenue could just get pushed back into a future quarter while boosting current Hopper sales, especially the newer H200 chip. The first Hopper chips were in full production in September 2022.
“That shift in timing doesn’t matter very much, as supply and customer demand has rapidly pivoted to H200,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note this week.
Many of Nvidia’s leading customers say they need the additional processing power of Blackwell chips in order to train more advanced next-generation AI models. But they’ll take what they can get.
“We expect Nvidia to deemphasize its Blackwell B100/B200 GPU allocation in favor of ramping up its Hopper H200s in” the second half of the year, HSBC analyst Frank Lee wrote in a August note. He has a buy rating on the stock.
A Xiaomi store in Shanghai, China, on March 16, 2025.
Qilai Shen/Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Chinese electric carmakers Xiaomi, Xpeng and Leapmotor each delivered nearly 30,000 or more cars in March, roughly twice several of their fellow startup competitors.
It’s a sign of how some automakers are pulling ahead, while BYD remains the market leader by far.
Xiaomi delivered a record number of electric vehicles in March, exceeding 29,000 units, the company announced on social media. That topped its prior run of delivering more than 20,000 vehicles in each of the past five months.
The SU7, Xiaomi’s flagship model, was involved in a crash on a highway on Tuesday that left three dead. The automaker on Tuesday afternoon released a statement on Chinese social media that the vehicle was in navigation on autopilot mode before the accident.
Based on preliminary information, the road was obstructed because of construction. The driver took control of the car but collided with construction infrastructure. Xiaomi added in the release that investigations were underway.
That came two weeks after the automaker announced on March 18 its goal to deliver 350,000 vehicles this year. There are also talks of the automaker expanding its second EV factory in Beijing to meet demand, Bloomberg reported on March 18. Xiaomi did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
Its competitor Xpeng in March delivered 33,205 vehicles, the fifth consecutive month it has delivered over 30,000 units per month and reflecting a 268% surge in deliveries from the same month last year. March is also the fifth consecutive month the company has delivered over 15,000 units of the Mona M03.
Leapmotor delivered 37,095 vehicles, reflecting a 154% year-over-year growth. The Stellantis-owned automaker last month launched U.K. sales of two electric vehicle models, the T03 and the C10.
Li Auto delivered 36,674 vehicles in March, a 26.5% year-over-year increase, but fewer than every month in the second half of 2024. The company’s cars had gained early traction with Chinese consumers since most come with a fuel tank for charging the vehicle’s battery, reducing anxiety about driving range.
BYD sold 371,419 passenger vehicles in March, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 57.9%. Its overseas sales volume also hit a record high of 72,723 units in March.
In the same month, the automaker unveiled its “Super e-Platform” technology, which boasts 400 kilometers (roughly 249 miles) of range with five minutes of charging. The company in February also announced that it was integrating DeepSeek artificial intelligence to develop “DiPilot,” its advanced driver-assistance system.
Across the board, major companies across China’s electric car industry reported deliveries rose last month, indicating a pick-up in demand from the seasonally soft first two months of the year.
U.S. automaker Tesla sold 78,828 electric vehicles in China in March, marking a 11.5% year-over-year decline in growth.
Other Chinese carmakers saw growth in deliveries but some still struggled to break through the 20,000-unit mark.
Nio delivered 15,039 vehicles, a 26.7% year-over-year growth, but well below the number of cars delivered in the months of May to December last year. Nio-owned Onvo, which markets its electric vehicles as family-oriented, in March recorded 15,039 units in deliveries.
Geely-owned Zeekr delivered 15,422 vehicles in March, increasing by 18.5% year over year. The company last month announced its rollout of free advanced driver-assistance technology to local customers in a bid to compete in the market.
Aito, as of April 2, has not published its delivery numbers for March. The automaker, which uses Huawei tech in its vehicles, on social media had reported monthly deliveries of 34,987 and 21,517 in January and February, respectively.
Quarterly performance
On a first-quarter basis, BYD remained in the lead with 986,098 vehicles sold. The automaker, which overtook Tesla in annual sales last year, surpassed the U.S. EV giant in battery electric vehicles sales this quarter.
Tesla sold 172,754 vehicles in China in the first quarter this year, according to monthly delivery numbers published by the China Passenger Car Association.
Xpeng also reported strong growth, with a total of 94,008 vehicles delivered in the quarter ending in March, reflecting a 331% year-over-year growth.
Leapmotor saw quarterly deliveries more than double to 87,552 units from 33,410 units the same period in 2024, according to publicly available numbers the company published.
However, Li Auto and Nio reported weaker growth than their competitors in the first quarter of the year.
Nio saw 42,094 vehicles delivered in the three months ended March 2025, an increase of 40.1% year over year. Li Auto saw a slower year-over-year growth of 15.5%, with a total of 92,864 vehicles delivered.
A driver for an independent contractor to FedEx delivers packages on Cyber Monday in New York, US, on Monday, Nov. 27, 2023.
Stephanie Keith | Bloomberg | Getty Images
President Donald Trump on Wednesday signed an executive order shutting the de minimis trade loophole, effective May 2.
Trump in February abruptly ended the de minimis trade exemption, which allows shipments worth less than $800 to enter the U.S. duty-free. The order overwhelmed U.S. Customs and Border Protection employees and caused the U.S. Postal Service to temporarily halt packages from China and Hong Kong. Within days of its announcement, Trump reversed course and delayed the cancellation of the provision.
Wednesday’s announcement, which came alongside a set of sweeping new tariffs, gives customs officials, retailers and logistics companies more time to prepare. Goods that qualify under the de minimis exemption will be subject to a duty of either 30% of their value, or $25 per item. That rate will increase to $50 per item on June 1, the White House said.
Use of the de minimis provision has exploded in recent years as shoppers flock to Chinese e-commerce companies Temu and Shein, which offer ultra-low cost apparel, electronics and other items. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection has said it processed more than 1.3 billion de minimis shipments in 2024, up from over 1 billion shipments in 2023.
Critics of the provision say it provides an unfair advantage to Chinese e-commerce companies and creates an influx of packages that are “subject to minimal documentation and inspection,” raising concerns around counterfeit and unsafe goods.
The Trump administration has sought to close the loophole over concerns that it facilitates shipments of fentanyl and other illicit substances on the claims that the packages are less likely to be inspected by customs agents.
Temu and Shein have taken steps to grow their operations in the U.S. as the de minimis loophole has come under greater scrutiny. After onboarding sellers with inventory in U.S. warehouses, Temu recently began steering shoppers to those items on its website, allowing it to speed up deliveries. Shein opened distribution centers in states including Illinois and California in 2022, and a supply chain hub in Seattle last year.
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