Technology

Nvidia has become world’s ‘most important stock,’ adding pressure to upcoming earnings report

Published

1 year ago

August 27, 2024

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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang makes a speech at an event at COMPUTEX forum in Taipei, Taiwan June 4, 2024.

Ann Wang | Reuters

For Nvidia investors, the past two years have been a joyride. But recently they’ve been on more of a roller coaster.

As the primary beneficiary of the artificial intelligence boom, Nvidia has seen its market cap expand by about nine-fold since the end of 2022. But after reaching a record in June and briefly becoming the world’s most valuable public company, Nvidia proceeded to lose almost 30% of its value over the next seven weeks, shedding roughly $800 billion in market cap.

Now, it’s in the midst of a rally that’s pushed the stock within about 7% of its all-time high.

With the chipmaker set to report quarterly results on Wednesday, the stock’s volatility is top of mind for Wall Street. Any indication that AI demand is waning or that a leading cloud customer is modestly tightening its belt potentially translates into significant revenue slippage.

“It’s the most important stock in the world right now,” EMJ Capital’s Eric Jackson told CNBC‘s “Closing Bell” last week. “If they lay an egg, it would be a major problem for the whole market. I think they’re going to surprise to the upside.”

Nvidia’s report comes weeks after its mega-cap tech peers got through earnings. The company’s name was sprinkled throughout those analyst calls, as Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon and Tesla all spend heavily on Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs) to train AI models and run massive workloads.

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In Nvidia’s past three quarters, revenue has more than tripled on an annual basis, with the vast majority of growth coming from the data center business.

Analysts expect a fourth straight quarter of triple-digit growth, but at a reduced pace of 112% to $28.7 billion, according to LSEG. From here, year-over-year comparisons get much tougher, and growth is expected to slow in each of the next six quarters.

Investors will be paying particularly close attention to Nvidia’s forecast for the October quarter. The company is expected to show growth of about 75% to $31.7 billion. Optimistic guidance will suggest that Nvidia’s deep-pocketed clients are signaling an ongoing willingness to open their wallets for the AI buildout, while a disappointing forecast could raise concern that infrastructure spending has gotten frothy.

“Given the steep increase in hyperscale capex over the past 18 months and the strong near-term outlook, investors frequently question the sustainability of the current capex trajectory,” analysts at Goldman Sachs, who recommend buying the stock, wrote in a note last month.

Much of the optimism heading into the report — the stock is up 8% in August — is due to comments from top customers about how much they’re continuing to shell out for data centers and Nvidia-based infrastructure.

Last month, the CEOs of Google and Meta enthusiastically endorsed the pace of their buildouts and said underinvesting was a greater risk than overspending. Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt recently told students at Stanford, in a video that was later removed, that he was hearing from top tech companies “they need $20 billion, $50 billion, $100 billion” worth of processors.

But while Nvidia’s profit margin has been expanding of late, the company still faces questions about the long-term return on investment that clients will see from their purchases of devices that cost tens of thousands of dollars each and are being ordered in bulk.

During Nvidia’s last earnings call in May, CFO Collette Kress provided data points suggesting that cloud providers, which account for over 40% of Nvidia’s revenue, would generate $5 in revenue for every $1 spent on Nvidia chips over four years.

More such stats are likely on the way. Last month, Goldman analysts wrote, following a meeting with Kress, that the company would share further ROI metrics this quarter “to instill confidence in investors.”

Blackwell timing

Jensen Huang, co-founder and chief executive officer of Nvidia Corp., displays the new Blackwell GPU chip during the Nvidia GPU Technology Conference on March 18, 2024.

David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The other major question facing Nvidia is the timeline for its next-generation AI chips, dubbed Blackwell. The Information reported earlier this month that the company is facing production issues, which will likely push big shipments back into the first quarter of 2025. Nvidia said at the time that production was on track to ramp in the second half of the year.

The report came after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang surprised investors and analysts in May by saying the company will see “a lot” of Blackwell revenue this fiscal year.

While Nvidia’s current generation of chips, called Hopper, remain the premium option for deploying AI applications like ChatGPT, competition is popping up from Advanced Micro Devices, Google and a smattering of startups, which is pressuring Nvidia to maintain its performance lead through a smooth upgrade cycle.

Even with a potential Blackwell delay, that revenue could just get pushed back into a future quarter while boosting current Hopper sales, especially the newer H200 chip. The first Hopper chips were in full production in September 2022.

“That shift in timing doesn’t matter very much, as supply and customer demand has rapidly pivoted to H200,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note this week.

Many of Nvidia’s leading customers say they need the additional processing power of Blackwell chips in order to train more advanced next-generation AI models. But they’ll take what they can get.

“We expect Nvidia to deemphasize its Blackwell B100/B200 GPU allocation in favor of ramping up its Hopper H200s in” the second half of the year, HSBC analyst Frank Lee wrote in a August note. He has a buy rating on the stock.

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Technology

Figure AI sued by whistleblower who warned that startup’s robots could ‘fracture a human skull’

Published

1 hour ago

November 21, 2025

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$Figure AI sued by whistleblower who warned that startup's robots could 'fracture a human skull'$

Startup Figure AI is developing general-purpose humanoid robots.

Figure AI

Figure AI, an Nvidia-backed developer of humanoid robots, was sued by the startup’s former head of product safety who alleged that he was wrongfully terminated after warning top executives that the company’s robots “were powerful enough to fracture a human skull.”

Robert Gruendel, a principal robotic safety engineer, is the plaintiff in the suit filed Friday in a federal court in the Northern District of California. Gruendel’s attorneys describe their client as a whistleblower who was fired in September, days after lodging his “most direct and documented safety complaints.”

The suit lands two months after Figure was valued at $39 billion in a funding round led by Parkway Venture Capital. That’s a 15-fold increase in valuation from early 2024, when the company raised a round from investors including Jeff Bezos, Nvidia, and Microsoft.

In the complaint, Gruendel’s lawyers say the plaintiff warned Figure CEO Brett Adcock and Kyle Edelberg, chief engineer, about the robot’s lethal capabilities, and said one “had already carved a ¼-inch gash into a steel refrigerator door during a malfunction.”

The complaint also says Gruendel warned company leaders not to “downgrade” a “safety road map” that he had been asked to present to two prospective investors who ended up funding the company.

Gruendel worried that a “product safety plan which contributed to their decision to invest” had been “gutted” the same month Figure closed the investment round, a move that “could be interpreted as fraudulent,” the suit says.

The plaintiff’s concerns were “treated as obstacles, not obligations,” and the company cited a “vague ‘change in business direction’ as the pretext” for his termination, according to the suit.

Gruendel is seeking economic, compensatory and punitive damages and demanding a jury trial.

Figure didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Nor did attorneys for Gruendel.

The humanoid robot market remains nascent today, with companies like Tesla and Boston Dynamics pursuing futuristic offerings, alongside Figure, while China’s Unitree Robotics is preparing for an IPO. Morgan Stanley said in a report in May that adoption is “likely to accelerate in the 2030s” and could top $5 trillion by 2050.

Read the filing here: