Libya’s power divisions could once more fracture its oil output – as markets question for how long
Crude oil leaks from an oil pumping jack in an oil field in Russia.
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A political standoff in Libya risks once more paralyzing the north African country’s lucrative oil sector — but the frequency of its power tussles and crude disruptions have called long-term oil price support into question.
Politically fractured since the NATO-backed ousting of Moammar Gadhafi, Libya once more finds itself mired in conflict between the internationally recognized Tripoli government of Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and its eastern Benghazi-based rival administration endorsed by Libya’s highest legislative body, the House of Representatives. Hanging over them is the specter of eastern warlord Khalifa Haftar, whose allied forces safeguard and control most of the country’s oilfields.
Tensions recently spiked once more over the fate of oil revenues, as efforts by Dbeibeh to remove Central Bank Governor Sadiq al-Kabir prompted the Benghazi administration to announce the shutdown of oilfields.
Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC), which administers the country’s hydrocarbon resources, has yet to comment on the announced closures, but its subsidiary Waha Oil has acknowledged “protests and pressures could lead to the cessation of oil production,” according to a Google-translated statement.
Fellow subsidiary Sirte Oil cited the same reasons for having to “gradually reduce production” and urged “specialized authorities to intervene to preserve the continuity of oil production” in a Google-translated social media post.
Libyan sources who could only comment anonymously because of security concerns told CNBC that several fields have fully shut down or reduced crude production.
Prior to the latest escalation, Libya’s largest field, the 300,000 barrels-per-day El Sharara, was shut down in early August amid protests orchestrated by demonstrators from the Fezzan region. The National Oil Corporation subsequently declared force majeure — a legal provision covering a company when it fails to deliver oil supplies because of circumstances out of its control — on El Sharara’s crude exports on Aug. 7, according to a NOC note to clients.
Since then, production of Libya’s largest export crude grade Es Sider has declined, with the Dhahra field shut down, along with gradual or complete halts at the Amal, Nafoora, El Feel and Mesla fields, Libyan sources tell CNBC.
A member of the influential Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) group, Libya boasted a crude production of 1.18 million barrels per day in July, according to independent assessments cited in the August edition of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market report — and between 700,000 to 900,000 barrels per day of this volume could “likely go offline by the end of the week,” Rapidan analysts said at the start of the week, warning that supplies and exports from the majority of Libya’s hydrocarbon-rich “Oil Crescent” region “will be offline within days, with outages lasting several weeks.”
Echoing the sentiment, Andrew Bishop, global head of policy research at Signum Global Advisors, described the latest shutdowns as “the real thing,” flagging that the disruption could last for “at least a month (and possibly far longer)” amid “zero trust” between the rival parties.
But Libya’s oil production has long been a victim of ransom for capital or political advantage — and the frequency of transient disruptions have eroded some market participants’ expectations that the latest disturbance will last long term. Oil prices, which have been slumping under the auspices of anemic demand from the world’s largest crude importer China, rallied on Monday on the Libyan reports — but surrendered much of these gains in the Tuesday session.
Prices were down once more on Wednesday, with the Brent crude futures contract with October expiry trading at $78.42 per barrel at 12:57 p.m. London time, down by $1.13 cents per barrel from the previous settlement. The front-month October Nymex WTI contract was at $74.31 per barrel, lower by $1.22 per barrel from the Tuesday close price.
“Prices have not stayed elevated on the Libyan reports especially because, there’s a couple of things: the first one, I think, is because of the current disagreement on the Central Bank, the Libyan Central Bank, I think is likely to resolve soon,” Jorge Leon, senior vice president of oil market research at Rystad Energy, told CNBC Wednesday.
“We haven’t really seen … extended Libyan supply disruptions in the last two years and even more, [in the last] two and a half years, and I think this time is not going to be different. I think that both parties have incentive to resolve this as soon as possible,” he added.
Goldman Sachs analysts likewise saw the prospective Libyan disruption as short lived.
“Market participants seem sanguine,” Barclays’ Amarpreet Singh assessed in a Tuesday note, flagging that “in a way, the situation in Libya is reminiscent of the elevated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as in fundamentals could move in the direction opposite to the risks implied by geopolitical developments for a sustained period.”
Locals call him the “Bicycle hero,” but Texas man Evan Wayne says he’s just doing what he can to help his community after it was cut off due to the recent devastating and deadly flooding tragedy.
When the local Sandy Creek flooded following torrential rains in Texas, it destroyed the only bridge into one community. Residents were cut off from access to supplies, including everything from necessities like food, water, and medicine to basic comforts.
Although the bridge was impassable to cars, volunteers who quickly organized to help the stranded residents found that the damaged bridge could still be traversed on foot. Or in the case of Evan Wayne, it could be covered by an electric bike.
Evan joined hundreds of volunteers who answered the call of grassroots organizers by working together without any official capacity. While many started by hand-pulling garden carts of supplies uphill to reach the stricken community, Evan jury-rigged a trailer to an e-bike and took on as much of the load as he could, helping shuttle much-needed food and gear into the community over hundreds of round-trip journeys.
“This was a dog trailer 48 hours ago. I had a hacksaw, hacked the top off, grabbed some bungee cords, and here we are,” explained Evan in an interview with CBS Austin, while waiting for the next load of gear to be stacked on his trailer.
In the first two days of the operation, he made around 100 round trips each day, shuttling food and water as well as critical rescue supplies. “Right now, I’m waiting on a couple of chainsaws that I’ll bring in for a crew that’s been going at it with handsaws so far.”
In addition to delivering needed supplies, Evan has often found himself moving something even more important: information. “I’ve flagged down medics. I’ve been the guy that goes between Austin EMT and STAR Flight because I’m quicker than cell phones sometimes, people don’t have signal a lot of the time.”
Evan quickly points out that he isn’t the only one helping. “I’ve got an e-bike, but other people are pulling carts. People are walking, people are carrying things. Everyone is doing what they can.” But there’s no doubt that his ability to carry more gear at higher speeds and make hundreds of round-trip journeys so far in and out of the stricken neighborhood has helped impact countless lives.
“This is all volunteers here. They’re just taking it upon themselves to get people where they need to go. I think there’s an umbrella company coming in, taking over tomorrow, but until they get here, people are just taking care of people, which is what you’ve got to do.”
E-bikes proving their worth in emergencies
While many people consider electric bicycles just another form of recreation, they’ve proven to be potent transportation alternatives after natural disasters worldwide.
Not only do their small and efficient batteries make performing hundreds of rescue trips like Evans’ possible, but recharging can be done simply and easily with a solar panel when electricity is out after a disaster. And when gas stations are out of fuel (or simply can’t pump it with the power grid down), e-bikes can keep running while gasoline-powered motorcycles or ATVs run dry.
Electric bicycle batteries have also proven to be a handy source of emergency power after hurricanes and other disasters, often helping owners keep their phones charged up for days to remain in contact with family or rescue services.
While most hope to never need theirs for emergency purposes, electric bicycles have proven their worth in countless disaster scenarios, adding benefits far beyond just alternative transportation, recreation, or fitness riding.
Image credits: CBS Austin (screenshots), used under fair use
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Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey testifies during a remote video hearing held by subcommittees of the U.S. House of Representatives Energy and Commerce Committee on “Social Media’s Role in Promoting Extremism and Misinformation” in Washington, U.S., March 25, 2021.
Handout | Via Reuters
Block jumped more than 5% on Monday, leading a rally in shares of fintech companies as analysts downplayed the threat of JPMorgan Chase’s reported plan to charge data aggregators for access to customer financial information.
The recovery followed steep declines on Friday, after Bloomberg reported that JPMorgan had circulated pricing sheets outlining potential fees for aggregators like Plaid and Yodlee, which connect fintech platforms to users’ bank data.
In a note to clients on Monday, Evercore ISI analysts said the potential new expenses were “far from a ‘business model-breaking’ cost increase.”
In addition to Block’s rise, PayPal climbed 3.5% on Monday after sliding Friday. Robinhood and Shift4 recorded modest gains.
Broader market momentum helped fuel some of the rebound. The Nasdaq closed at a record, and crypto rallied, with bitcoin climbing past $123,000. Ether, solana, and other altcoins also gained.
Evercore ISI’s analysts said that even if JPMorgan’s changes were implemented, the most immediate effect would be a slight bump in the cost of one-time account setups — perhaps 50 to 60 cents.
Morgan Stanley echoed that view, writing that any impact would be “negligible,” especially for large fintechs that rely more on debit, credit, or stored balances than bank account pulls for transactions.
PayPal doesn’t anticipate much short-term impact, according to a person with knowledge of the issue. The person, who asked not to be named in order to speak about private financial matters, noted that PayPal relies on aggregators primarily for account verification and already has long-term pricing contracts in place.
While smaller fintechs that depend heavily on automated clearing house (ACH) rails or Open Banking frameworks for onboarding and compliance may face real pressure if the fees take effect, analysts said the larger platforms are largely insulated.
WATCH: Congress moves to redraw $3.7 trillion crypto market rules, opening door to Wall Street
The global EV market is still charging ahead. According to new numbers from global research firm Rho Motion, 9.1 million EVs were sold worldwide in the first half of 2025, up 28% compared to the same period last year. But not every region is accelerating at the same pace.
China and Europe are doing the heavy lifting
More than half of the world’s EVs this year have been bought in China. That market hit 5.5 million sales in the first six months of 2025 – a 32% jump year-over-year. Around half of new cars bought in China are now electric.
While some Chinese cities’ subsidies have dried up, Rho Motion expects momentum to pick back up later in the year as more funding is released.
In Europe, 2 million EVs were sold in the first half of the year, up 26%. Battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales also rose 26%, thanks in part to affordable models like the Renault 4 (pictured) and 5 entering the market. Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) weren’t far behind, growing 27% year-to-date. Chinese automakers are leaning into PHEVs as a way to work around the EU’s new tariffs on BEVs.
Spain is leading the pack with EV sales soaring 85% so far this year. Its generous MOVES III incentive program was extended in April and has kept sales strong. The UK and Germany are also seeing solid growth – 32% and 40%, respectively. France, however, is slumping. With subsidies cut, EV sales there have dropped 13%.
North America is stuck in the slow lane
Things aren’t looking quite as bright in North America. EV sales in the US, Canada, and Mexico are up just 3% so far this year.
Mexico is the one bright spot, with a 20% boost. The US is up 6%. But Canada is down a whopping 23%.
And things could get bumpier. On July 4, Trump signed Congress’s big bill into law, which axes all the Inflation Reduction Act EV tax credits. Those consumer credits for EVs now officially end on September 30.
Just over half of the EVs sold in the US this year qualified for those credits. Rho Motion predicts a rush in Q3 before the subsidies disappear – and a decline in sales after that.
Rho Motion data manager Charles Lester said, “With Trump’s latest cuts in his ‘Big Beautiful Bill,’ the US could struggle to see any growth in the EV market overall in 2025.”
Global EV sales snapshot, H1 2025 vs H1 2024
- Global: 9.1 million (+28%)
- China: 5.5 million (+32%)
- Europe: 2.0 million (+26%)
- North America: 0.9 million (+3%)
- Rest of world: 0.7 million (+40%)
Read more: China breaks records as global EV sales hit 7.2 million in 2025
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