MLB September predictions: Playoff races, MVP, Cy Young and more surprises
Welcome to September! We’re five months into Major League Baseball’s 2024 season and there is plenty of intrigue entering the homestretch.
Which of the current contenders will be headed to the playoffs come October? How will the division races play out? Who are the favorites to win the MVP and Cy Young awards? And will Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani make history to cap off their incredible 2024 performances?
To discuss what the final month of the regular season might bring, we asked a panel of 18 ESPN baseball experts some of the game’s biggest questions, covering September and beyond. We also asked a number of them to explain their answers — particularly those that went against the grain.
Below, you’ll find our picks for the postseason, major awards and more, including a few surprising answers and some bold predictions about what’s next.
The teams we’ll be talking about for the final month
Which team will finish with the best record in baseball?
Dodgers: 14
Phillies: 3
Brewers: 1
The Dodgers were the overwhelming pick. Why did you take them?
You may be familiar with the Dodgers’ lineup. Need I say more? While a few members of the rotation have struggled in the big leagues this year, Clayton Kershaw, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow might all return before the end of the year. And Michael Kopech has been impressive as the Dodgers’ closer since they acquired him at the deadline, with a 0.68 ERA in 13⅓ innings in August. They can’t coast the rest of the way, but they’re in a good spot. — Kiley McDaniel
The Dodgers’ pitching may have flaws, but their midseason acquisitions of Jack Flaherty and Kopech have been pivotal. With Max Muncy healthy and Tommy Edman strengthening center field, this lineup is MLB’s deepest. This team’s chemistry, as well as the offense is peaking at the right time, and Shohei Ohtani’s historic 50 HR/50 SB season seems almost inevitable. — Xavier Scruggs
The other two NL division leaders were also selected. Let’s hear the case for Philadelphia and Milwaukee:
The Phillies’ record since the All-Star break is below .500 and they’re still just 1.5 games back from the best mark. Now that they’ve seemed to right the ship, and with a schedule featuring only one other playoff team the rest of the way, I’m expecting a strong final month in Philly. — Dan Mullen
The surprising Brewers have overcome obstacles (rotation, injuries) all season and still are right there with the win leaders. With their soft remaining schedule, weak division and emerging youngsters, watch them sneak into the top overall spot. — Eric Karabell
How many of the current 12 teams projected for the playoffs will be in the postseason field?
All 12: 14
11 of the current 12: 4 (Boston replacing Minnesota: 3; Boston replacing Kansas City: 1)
The Red Sox were the clear choice from our writers who thought someone would break into the field in the final month. Why do you think they’ll pass the Twins?
Boston’s strength of schedule in September might provide that last push it needs. The Red Sox play teams below .500 in half of their remaining series, while the Twins still have to play series against Cleveland and Kansas City — meaning the Red Sox have multiple opportunities to make up ground. Not to mention that Boston’s pitching — a reason the team had started to slip — might have found its rhythm once again. All I’m saying is, don’t count the Sox out just yet. — Liz Finny
Who will win the NL West?
Dodgers: 17
Padres: 1
You were the only one to pick a team other than the Dodgers to win the NL West. Why did you go with the Padres?
It’s become standard fare to predict the Dodgers to fail in the postseason, so let’s raise the stakes a bit and predict a late-season collapse that ends with the Padres overtaking them to win the NL West. Can San Diego make up six games over the final 26? The Padres are the best team in baseball since the All-Star break, they’re getting Fernando Tatis Jr. back, and they finish the season with six games against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, the two teams ahead of them. — Tim Keown
Will Baltimore or New York win the AL East?
Yankees: 14
Orioles: 4
The Yankees were the pick by a vast majority of our experts. What do you think will put them over the top
Jazz Chisholm is the player they didn’t know they needed for the past five years. — Doug Glanville
Why do you think Baltimore can pass New York?
Zach Eflin just came back. Grayson Rodriguez and Jordan Westburg shouldn’t be far behind. The Orioles are getting healthy at the right time, and between that and starting September with a series against the White Sox, things are looking up for the team with the most talent in the American League. — Jeff Passan
What about the AL Central?
Guardians: 12
Royals: 5
Twins: 1
Our voters seem to think Cleveland is starting to pull away here. Why did you go with the Guardians?
I would’ve chosen the Royals before they lost Vinnie Pasquantino for the rest of the regular season, placed Michael Lorenzen on the injured list, and tumbled into a five-game losing streak. Completing one of the greatest one-year turnarounds in history would’ve made for a great story, but that’s now unlikely. The Twins have the talent, but they can’t stay healthy. The Guardians’ lineup has lost some steam while the starting rotation remains a concern, but they’ve been in first place (alone or tied) since April 6. And they’ll stay there (alone) for the rest of the month. — Jorge Castillo
It hurts my heart a little to not pick the Royals, who I think will stick in the postseason bracket even after the unfortunate broken thumb suffered by Pasquantino. Their recent faceplant may have taken them out of the Central race, especially since Cleveland has the easiest schedule the rest of the way.
Kansas City still has a buffer when it comes to playing on into October but the slump means they can’t worry about position on the bracket so much as making sure they are somewhere on it at all. Over the last week, Cleveland has moved from worrying about the Royals to worrying about overtaking the Yankees for the top overall seed in the AL. — Bradford Doolittle
How many games will the White Sox lose?
126: 2
125: 2
124: 5
123: 3
122: 2
121: 3
119: 1
Only one of our voters predicted the White Sox falling short of the all-time record for losses. Why did you predict a 36-126 finish?
There’s a question being debated on sports talk radio in Chicago: Who will win more games in September, the Bears or the White Sox? The fact that it’s a legitimate debate is all you need to know about the latter team down the stretch. To wit: Their first 10 games of the month come against playoff contenders. Plus, they have a West Coast trip left. Losing 126 might be too kind. — Jesse Rogers
The players who will dominate the final month
The 2024 AL and NL MVPs will be …?
AL: Aaron Judge — 18
NL: Shohei Ohtani — 18
Judge and Ohtani were unanimous picks. Who has the best chance of passing either player for MVP?
Bobby Witt Jr. is on way to a 10-WAR season, leading the AL in batting average, runs and hits while closing in on 30 home runs, 30 steals and 100 RBIs. His defensive metrics are off the charts. In most seasons, he’s an easy pick for MVP. If Judge falters in September and the surprising Royals win the AL Central, Witt could swoop in. In the NL, Francisco Lindor has actually passed Ohtani in FanGraphs WAR. He’s also closing in on a 30/30 season and a possible Gold Glove. Defense matters and that gives Lindor a chance. — David Schoenfield
How many home runs will Aaron Judge finish with?
64: 1
63: 6
62: 1
61: 2
60: 6
59: 1
Almost all of our panel has Judge reaching at least 60 home runs, why do you think he’ll finish with 64 long balls?
Sixty-four homers out of the question, you say? I’m just extrapolating the numbers. Since Judge’s slow start, he hit 47 homers in a recent 105-game stretch, an unbelievable rate; he even hit seven homers in 9 games, so he can go off at any moment. The Yankees have 24 games remaining, and so not only will Judge get to his own record, but he’ll go beyond. — Olney
Will Shohei Ohtani become the first member of the 50/50 club?
Yes: 16
No: 2
The vast majority of our voters think Ohtani will make history. Why do you believe he’ll get to 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases?
He’s going to get there because he’s fully capable, because he’s on pace to and because the Dodgers’ games will continue to matter down the stretch.
Perhaps just as important: He’s going to get there because it seems as if he really wants to. An understated element of Ohtani is how in tune he is with his mark on the sport. Given that he wouldn’t pitch, he saw this as the year when he could maximize his value on the bases. And he won’t let an opportunity for 50-50 slip past him. — Gonzalez
The 2024 Cy Youngs will go to …?
AL: Tarik Skubal — 18
NL: Chris Sale — 15
Zack Wheeler — 3
Skubal was unanimous in the AL and Sale was a runaway pick in the NL. Why did you go with Zack Wheeler?
Chris Sale is -650 to win the NL Cy Young at ESPN BET, but should NOT be considered a runaway based on two factors: workload and trouble finishing seasons effectively. Sale’s 153⅔ innings are already more than he logged in 2021-23 combined (151) and soon to be more than any season since 2017. His career September/October splits are fairly loud — a 3.69 ERA and .739 OPS allowance are both career worsts by calendar month. Zack Wheeler has no such history, making his +450 price at ESPN BET an especially good value. — Paul Hembekides
Who will win AL and NL Rookie of the Year?
AL: Cowser — 15
Mason Miller — 2
Wilyer Abreu — 1
Our panel leaned heavily toward Cowser. Why do you think Miller can win AL honors?
**In a wide-open award race, Miller’s elite skill set and historic whiff rates could catch voters’ eyes. It’s not like relievers haven’t won before when there wasn’t a clear, top-shelf choice (see: Devin Williams, 2020). Among rookies with 50-plus innings, his 43.4% K rate is second-best all time, .145 batting average allowed fifth-best and 1.71 FIP is ninth-best. He’ll also probably become the third rookie ever with 25-plus saves and 100-plus K’s. — Tristan Cockcroft
NL: Merrill — 13
Skenes — 4
Chourio — 1
Merrill was the favorite, but you were one of four voters to choose Skenes. Why?
Jackson Merrill is a delightful player who heads into September with the narrative momentum to capture the award — and he’d be an absolutely worthy winner. Paul Skenes is just the best pitcher in baseball, and if he finishes the season with 140 innings of sub-2.25 ERA ball, he will have earned Rookie of the Year, even over a star like Merrill. — Passan
Bold predictions for the final month
Hembekides: Juan Soto will outproduce Aaron Judge in September and finish as AL MVP runner-up behind Judge and ahead of Bobby Witt Jr.
Schoenfield: Francisco Lindor will pass Shohei Ohtani in bWAR and becomes the first Mets position player to ever lead the National League.
Castillo: The Cubs and Mets will miss the playoffs by one game.
Rogers: The National League won’t have multiple .300 hitters
Passan: I’ll take that a step further. The winner of the National League batting crown will become the first batting champion in baseball history with a sub-.300 average. Currently, Marcell Ozuna, Trea Turner and Luis Arraez are the only NL players over .300, and so few hitters can string together any sort of batting-average consistency, it makes the possibility of Carl Yastrzemski losing his record-low .301 average for a batting champion that much more realistic.
Doolittle: Maybe not so bold, but Erick Fedde, who was traded at the deadline, will finish with a team-high seven wins for the team he left, the White Sox.
Cockcroft: The Guardians summon top prospect Chase DeLauter in an attempt to improve their struggling outfield. DeLauter wins Rookie of the Month honors and helps the team steal back the division lead.
Matt Marrone: The Yankees will finally bite the bullet and DFA two-time batting champ DJ LeMahieu.
Scruggs: Marcell Ozuna will win the NL Triple Crown.
Karabell: Jacob deGrom makes his season debut on Sept. 12 at Seattle, and he throws 6 perfect innings. Jacob Latz, David Robertson and Kirby Yates finish off the first official shared perfect game.
Keown: The Tigers — yes, the Tigers — will parlay their strength of schedule (No. 27) into a late and unexpected run at the last AL wild-card spot. They’ll come up short, but there will be meaningful baseball in Detroit in the last week of September.
McDaniel: Chris Sale will win the ERA title (currently 2nd to Skubal) and become the first pitcher since Corbin Burnes in 2021 to win what I call the FanGraphs pitching quadruple crown: lead qualified pitchers in ERA, xERA, FIP, and xFIP.
Kurkjian: The Astros will win the AL West handily and will enter October as the team to beat in the American League.
Olney: We won’t have any teams finish with 100 wins, but three teams — besides the White Sox, the Marlins and Rockies — will finish with 100 defeats.
It seems such a short time ago that all 16 teams began the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs with a clean slate. On Tuesday night, two teams could have their postseason runs ended.
Can both teams stave off elimination to get another home game out of the 2025 postseason?
Meanwhile in the Western Conference, both series involving Pacific Division teams are tied 2-2 heading back to the higher seed’s domain. Which teams will take pivotal Games 5 in Vegas Golden Knights–Minnesota Wild and Los Angeles Kings–Edmonton Oilers?
Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, recaps of what went down in Monday’s games, and the Three Stars of Monday Night from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs
Game 5 (TOR leads 3-1) | 7 p.m. ET | ESPN
Games 2-4 marked the 11th time in the past 20 years that teams have gone to overtime three straight times in a playoff series.
Jake Sanderson‘s game-winning overtime goal was the first of his career, and he became the ninth defenseman age 22 or younger with an OT goal in the playoffs (and the first for the Senators).
Veteran David Perron scored his first playoff goal with the Senators, the fourth team with which he has scored a postseason goal (Blues, Golden Knights, Ducks).
Matthew Knies scored his sixth career playoff goal, which is tied for the fourth most by a Maple Leafs player age 22 or younger since 1976-77, behind Auston Matthews (12), Wendel Clark (11) and Russ Courtnall (8).
Toronto defensemen have scored five goals this postseason, the most by any team, a surprising outcome given that the Leafs had the fewest goals by defensemen in the regular season (21).
New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes
Game 5 (CAR leads 3-1) | 7:30 p.m. ET | TBS
The Devils have outscored the Hurricanes at 5-on-5 in the series (7-5), but trail on their own power plays (0-1), the Canes’ power plays (0-4) and when the net is empty (0-2).
Hurricanes goaltender Frederik Andersen was knocked out of Game 4 following a collision with Devils forward Timo Meier. Meier has not scored on Andersen during this series, but scored on his first shot on goal against backup goalie Pyotr Kochetkov.
Andersen’s status is up in the air for Game 5, but he is the current leader among playoff goaltenders in goals-against average (1.59) this postseason, and is second among qualified goalies in save percentage (.936).
Andrei Svechnikov scored his second career playoff hat trick in Game 4. He has two for his career and is the only player in Hurricanes/Whalers franchise history to score a playoff hat trick.
Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights
Game 5 (series tied 2-2) | 9:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Game 4 broke one streak and continued another. Ivan Barbashev‘s OT winner snapped a three-game losing streak for Vegas in playoff OT games, while the loss for Minnesota makes it five straight defeats in home playoff games that go to the extra session.
Wild goalie Filip Gustavsson made 42 saves in the loss, his second career playoff game with 40 or more. He is the only goaltender in franchise history with multiple 40-save games in the playoffs.
Kirill Kaprizov registered an assist in the Game 4 loss, giving him eight points in four games this postseason, one behind the leaders.
Vegas forward Tomas Hertl is on a heater. His goal in Game 4 is his third this postseason, and he has eight goals in his past nine games going back to March 22.
The Wild have been mostly effective at keeping Jack Eichel off the score sheet. He had one assist in Game 4, his first point of the series after a team-leading 94 points in the regular season.
Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings
Game 5 (series tied 2-2) | 10 p.m. ET | TBS
With his two-goal outing in Game 4, Evan Bouchard became the fourth defenseman in Stanley Cup playoff history to have back-to-back multigoal games, joining Rob Blake (2002), Al Iafrate (1993) and Denis Potvin (1981).
Leon Draisaitl — who scored the OT game winner in Game 4 — now has eight four-point games in his playoff career. That’s the fourth most in Oilers history, behind Wayne Gretzky (20), Mark Messier (10) and Jari Kurri (10).
Tied with Draisaitl for the playoff scoring lead is Kings winger Adrian Kempe, who is also tied for the goals lead with four. Kempe had 19 total points in 22 previous playoff games, all with the Kings.
Kings goaltender Darcy Kuemper has been busy, facing 134 shots, which is the second most among postseason goaltenders (Gustavsson is first with 136). Kuemper’s current .881 save percentage is the second worst of his playoff career, narrowly ahead of the .879 he generated while backstopping the Wild for two games in the 2013 playoffs.
Arda’s three stars from Monday night
Johnston scored his first goal of the 2025 postseason nine seconds in, which is tied for the fifth fastest goal to start a game in Stanley Cup playoff history. He had himself a night, with two goals and an assist in the Stars’ win.
Rantanen scored his first postseason goal with the Stars against his old team. Rantanen became the seventh different player in NHL history to score a playoff goal against a team with which he previously tallied 100-plus postseason points. The others: Jaromir Jagr (2012 and 2008 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins), Brett Hull (2002, 2001, and 1999 vs. St. Louis Blues), Wayne Gretzky (1992, 1990, 1989 vs. Edmonton Oilers), Jari Kurri (1992 vs. Oilers), Paul Coffey (1992 vs. Oilers) and Bernie Geoffrion (1967 vs. Montreal Canadiens).
His postgame quotes keep getting better and better, to the point where he deserves a star for saying, “I’m sick of talking about hits” — then asking the media for their thoughts. Love it.
Monday’s scores
Florida Panthers 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
FLA leads 3-1 | Game 5 Wednesday
After an exciting, but scoreless, first period, the game heated up even more in the second. Anton Lundell opened the scoring for the Panthers, and Aaron Ekblad delivered a vicious hit to Tampa Bay’s Brandon Hagel; the call was not penalized on the ice, and Hagel would have to leave the game. Thereafter, the Lightning scored two goals within 11 seconds from Mitchell Chaffee and Erik Cernak to take the lead well into the third period. But then in another span of 11 seconds, the Panthers pulled off the same feat, with goals by Ekblad and Seth Jones, sending the building into a frenzy. Carter Verhaeghe added an empty-netter for insurance. Full recap.
1:21
Panthers match Lightning with 2 goals in 11 seconds to take lead
Aaron Ekblad and Seth Jones score within 11 seconds of each other as the Panthers grab a late lead in the third period.
Dallas Stars 6, Colorado Avalanche 2
DAL leads 3-2 | Game 6 Thursday
As wild as the opening game was Monday night, this one looked to be going down the same road early. Dallas’ Wyatt Johnston scored nine seconds into the game, which is the fastest goal ever to start a playoff game in Stars franchise history. Fellow young Star Thomas Harley joined him on the scoresheet with 45 seconds left in the first. From there on, Dallas kept Colorado at arm’s length, with a second-period goal from Mikko Rantanen, another from Johnston and one from Mason Marchment, followed by an empty-netter from Roope Hintz to put an exclamation point on the proceedings. Artturi Lehkonen and Nathan MacKinnon scored in the second period, but that was not nearly enough on this night. Full recap.
0:34
Stars score in first 9 seconds of the game
Wyatt Johnston wastes no time as he finds the net within nine seconds of play for a Stars goal against the Avalanche.
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Greg Wyshynski
Florida Panthers defenseman Aaron Ekblad will have a hearing Tuesday with the NHL Department of Player Safety for elbowing Tampa Bay Lightning forward Brandon Hagel in the head in Game 4 of their series Monday night.
Hagel won’t play in Wednesday’s Game 5.
“He’s not playing tomorrow. And you know why,” said Lightning coach Jon Cooper on Tuesday.
Ekblad’s hearing will be held remotely.
With less than nine minutes left in the second period of Florida’s 4-2 victory, Hagel played the puck out of the Tampa Bay zone near the boards. Ekblad skated in on him and delivered a hit with his right forearm that made contact with Hagel’s head, shoving Hagel down in the process. The back of Hagel’s head bounced off the ice. He was pulled from the game because of concussion concerns and didn’t return to the bench.
Ekblad wasn’t penalized for the hit and remained in the game. He would play a critical role in the Panthers’ late-game rally to take a 3-1 series lead, tying the game with 3:47 left in regulation before Florida defenseman Seth Jones scored the winner 11 seconds later.
Hagel returned to the Lightning lineup in Game 4 after serving a one-game suspension for interference on Florida captain Aleksander Barkov in Game 2. The NHL ruled that Barkov wasn’t eligible to be hit and that Hagel made head contact with him, which forced Barkov out of the game. Barkov returned to the Florida lineup for Game 3, which the Lightning won in Hagel’s absence.
“It’s getting tiresome answering questions about a hit every single game,” Lightning coach Jon Cooper said after the game before asking media members whether they had anything to say about Ekblad’s check, with no takers. “All right, let’s move on,” he said.
Ekblad missed the first two games of the playoffs after he was suspended 20 games without pay in March for violating the NHL and NHL Players’ Association’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs.
The Department of Player Safety did make a ruling on Florida defenseman Niko Mikkola, who received a five-minute major penalty and a game misconduct for boarding Tampa Bay’s Zemgus Girgensons in Game 4. Mikkola was fined $5,000, the maximum allowable under the NHL CBA, but escaped suspension.
Cooper said the physicality of “The Battle of Florida” shouldn’t come as a surprise
“Players are missing games because of it, whether it’s physically or by the league. So it’s going to be talked about. But if anybody’s followed Tampa and Florida over the last five or six years, this is kind of how these series are. This one is a little different because of the major things that have happened, but these are hard-fought series,” he said.
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